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Giannis Antetokounmpo 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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Summer update for Giannis.

 

Ranked 9 by SI and ESPN.

 

Greek NT:

He participated in part of the training and played just one friendly game (in which he was awesome). He didn't participate in Eurobasket 2017. He had a mild knee discomfort, and there was a whole soap-opera of how serious it was and whether it was exaggerated so that he will not participate (greek doctors said he needed a week rest, Bucks doctor ruled him out). As a greek I really wanted to see him domianting Euro 2017,  but on the other hand Bucks have 100Mi invested there, so even with a minor concern it would be better for him to rest. At media day yesterday they said he is 100% fit for the start.

 

Workout:

He is becoming a beast. Expect him to dominate even more when he plays the 5 as well (small ball or even not small :D )

 

ARCaCjQ.jpg

 

His character:

The same old good guy/goofy :D :

 

Most important. His shot:

He trained it a lot. In the one game he played, he appeared to be less hesitant and with better release. If he improved it indeed. Then it is game over:

 

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Can't believe I've had ticket to see Giannis play the Sixers tonight for months and then of course he isn't playing.  Incredible

MIL office must have read this post of yours and decided, "We will not be fooled anymore!" lol

What you all are "building"? If undisputed TOP5 pick is hard to "build" then something is wrong. Don't "build", but just make a team.

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26 minutes ago, Nightfall said:

Summer update for Giannis.

 

Ranked 9 by SI and ESPN.

 

Greek NT:

He participated in part of the training and played just one friendly game (in which he was awesome). He didn't participate in Eurobasket 2017. He had a mild knee discomfort, and there was a whole soap-opera of how serious it was and whether it was exaggerated so that he will not participate (greek doctors said he needed a week rest, Bucks doctor ruled him out). As a greek I really wanted to see him domianting Euro 2017,  but on the other hand Bucks have 100Mi invested there, so even with a minor concern it would be better for him to rest. At media day yesterday they said he is 100% fit for the start.

 

Workout:

He is becoming a beast. Expect him to dominate even more when he plays the 5 as well (small ball or even not small :D )

 

ARCaCjQ.jpg

 

His character:

The same old good guy/goofy :D :

 

Most important. His shot:

He trained it a lot. In the one game he played, he appeared to be less hesitant and with better release. If he improved it indeed. Then it is game over:

 

 

I saw one jumpshot the entire video..it looked fine / smooth - never seen him step back right like that, but that's not conclusive at all that he's improved it.

Need to see more in preseason. I don't think that's his game any way. If he can add a 3 ball and keep his FT% at 78 - 80, then he remains as a solid top 1-5 value. If his assists rise on top of it, then it pretty much makes him far and away the scariest fantasy player to go up against in H2H leagues because he's just so dangerous across the board (3's are easy to fill and you can find FT%/assist guys to boost him). He's an easy player to build around. 

I'm torn on my #1 pick this year between Giannis and Towns (KD is in the mix as well but I think with the added depth they have he may not need to play a boatload this year), and reading Dr A's latest column it looks like he's torn too (he ultimately chose KAT which is where I'm leaning as well with C scarcity). 

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I've got #1 too and before the melo trade i had a solid strategy to build around RW. Giannis was always my second guy, but now i think hes #1. I want a guy that is far and away the best player on a team.... no sharing with another one or two stars/egos. Dude is still 22yo and his upside seems insane. After only one season as the playmaker, i can see him improving even more this coming season. I think thats his biggest attraction, is that we still don't know where hus ceiling is... and i dont want to be the one to find out by the guy below me who ends up with him if i skip the freak.

 

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1 hour ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I prefer Giannis over Towns. Towns may 'suffer' a bit without Rubio and an added Butler. He also doesn't chip in as many cats as Giannis does. 

This shouldnt even be a debate. :)

Who you have as top 5 in 9cat? Giannis, Durant, Kawhi, Curry, AD? 

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only thing greek freak has to add is some 3 point shots then he is arguably better than KD both irl and fantasy.

 

I'm expecting 24/8/6.5 with at least 1 3s per game this yr and stocks as usual.

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2 hours ago, ber said:

only thing greek freak has to add is some 3 point shots then he is arguably better than KD both irl and fantasy.

 

I'm expecting 24/8/6.5 with at least 1 3s per game this yr and stocks as usual.

I am a huge fan of Greek Freak and his evolving game, but he isn't even close to KD in real life. At this point he isn't even in the discussion. Fantasy is completely different because I think Greek can be the #1 overall pick this year, but not irl. The only way Greek enters that conversation is if KD gets hurt and he passes him by default. The versatility of KD's game and his skill level is on an entirely different level. His range needs to be respected at all times as soon as he crosses half court. All you have to do is look at his performances on the biggest stage in the sport to know that if healthy there are very few comps that do/did what he does on both sides of the ball. And I am not a fan of KD's, but the dude is crazy skilled. 

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3 hours ago, ber said:

only thing greek freak has to add is some 3 point shots then he is arguably better than KD both irl and fantasy.

 

I'm expecting 24/8/6.5 with at least 1 3s per game this yr and stocks as usual.

 

He is still a ways away from KD IRL. KD is just the near perfect offensive player. Giannis is never going to have the silky jimmy of KD, that shot is almost unrivalled in NBA history - elevation, smoothness, length, and range. I would also say right now KD is still slightly ahead on defense because he is just so good at reading the game, but saying that Giannis has a higher defensive ceiling, and with more time learning the game he will be the better defender. In fantasy it is really close. I expect 24-25, 9, 6-6.5, 1.6, 1.8, 52/77% on 0.9 threes, and 3 TOs. That is out of control. KD has him on efficiency and triples...otherwise really close probably just give the nod to KD

 

5 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

KD

Giannis

Curry

Kawhi (think he'll add some more goodies (ast) this year)

AD

 

Very close to my list expect I would put AD at 3. The injury risk is real, but with the dearth of effective centres in the game these days drafting them early is key and KD is so perfect to build around. My top 10 rounds out with KAT, RWB, Harde, Jokic, and CP3. Seems like picking 5-8 might be the best this year as there isn't too much between the top 8 especially the top 5. Picks 9-20 are really hard to predict and could go all over the place

Edited by Jake the snake
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6 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

He is still a ways away from KD IRL. KD is just the near perfect offensive player. Giannis is never going to have the silky jimmy of KD, that shot is almost unrivalled in NBA history - elevation, smoothness, length, and range. I would also say right now KD is still slightly ahead on defense because he is just so good at reading the game, but saying that Giannis has a higher defensive ceiling, and with more time learning the game he will be the better defender. In fantasy it is really close. I expect 24-25, 9, 6-6.5, 1.6, 1.8, 52/77% on 0.9 threes, and 3 TOs. That is out of control. KD has him on efficiency and triples...otherwise really close probably just give the nod to KD

 

 

Very close to my list expect I would put AD at 3. The injury risk is real, but with the dearth of effective centres in the game these days drafting them early is key and KD is so perfect to build around. My top 10 rounds out with KAT, RWB, Harde, Jokic, and CP3. Seems like picking 5-8 might be the best this year as there isn't too much between the top 8 especially the top 5. Picks 9-20 are really hard to predict and could go all over the place

You think CP3 will have a better year than Wall and Lillard? 

 

Picking him with 17/18 ppg might put you in a bad position to search for scorers later, given the fact you pick low scoring Cs on the turn.

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7 minutes ago, dekciw_1 said:

You think CP3 will have a better year than Wall and Lillard? 

 

Picking him with 17/18 ppg might put you in a bad position to search for scorers later, given the fact you pick low scoring Cs on the turn.

 

You could go many ways after that (like I said picks 9-20 are a wash and you'll see some very different selections in that range over the different drafts).

 

But there is a good chance you could pair CP3 with Kyrie, Lillard or Lebron to get your points. I think he is going to kill it this year. his efficiency will be through the roof. I see 18-19ppg easily and 9 apg (maybe more). Harden is going to have to learn to defer and play off the ball, which he can do, but this is now CP3 running a D'Antoni offence. Remember a little Canuck named steve nash? He is going to be so much fun to watch this year

Edited by Jake the snake
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1 minute ago, Jake the snake said:

 

You could go many ways after that. But there is a good chance you could pair him with Kyrie, Lillard or Lebron to get your points. I think he is going to kill it this year. his efficiency will be through the roof. I see 18-19ppg easily and 9 apg (maybe more). Harden is going to have to learn to defer and play off the ball, which he can do, but this is now CP3 running a D'Antoni offence. Remember a little Canuck named steve nash? He is going to be so much fun to watch this year


Yeah, pairing him with such players will lock 3s, assists and steals to a degree. I picked the same way last year with Curry and Lowry and it came up pretty good.

But it is a gamble, passing on Gobert and Whiteside is really hard.

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2 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

You could go many ways after that. But there is a good chance you could pair him with Kyrie, Lillard or Lebron to get your points. I think he is going to kill it this year. his efficiency will be through the roof. I see 18-19ppg easily and 9 apg (maybe more). Harden is going to have to learn to defer and play off the ball, which he can do, but this is now CP3 running a D'Antoni offence. Remember a little Canuck named steve nash? He is going to be so much fun to watch this year

I don't quite share the same optimistic outlook on CP3. Harden really matured last year and his game was incredible (IMO he was an MVP). As a coach, if you combine 2 amazing playmakers/distributors do you leverage them to create a more unpredictable offense? Or do you assign playmaking to one and have the other take a back seat and become a scorer? I don't know the answer, but that is what concerns me about them. The default is to look at history and Nash, but those Suns team were very different. Matrix and Amare were scorers and not primary ballhandlers/facilitators. QRich/JJ were not even close to the distributor Harden has become. I think Harden and CP3 cannibalize eachother a bit, but I think the system and likelihood of being staggered still makes them both elite options in assists. I am interested to hear more about your stance on CP3. I guess his increased 3's is what makes me most excited. I play 8 cat so I understand the increased appeal of CP3 in 9 cat. Just let me know if you are talking 9 cat. 

 

Bringing this back to Greek...he is awesome. Draft him early. 

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10 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I don't quite share the same optimistic outlook on CP3. Harden really matured last year and his game was incredible (IMO he was an MVP). As a coach, if you combine 2 amazing playmakers/distributors do you leverage them to create a more unpredictable offense? Or do you assign playmaking to one and have the other take a back seat and become a scorer? I don't know the answer, but that is what concerns me about them. The default is to look at history and Nash, but those Suns team were very different. Matrix and Amare were scorers and not primary ballhandlers/facilitators. QRich/JJ were not even close to the distributor Harden has become. I think Harden and CP3 cannibalize eachother a bit, but I think the system and likelihood of being staggered still makes them both elite options in assists. I am interested to hear more about your stance on CP3. I guess his increased 3's is what makes me most excited. I play 8 cat so I understand the increased appeal of CP3 in 9 cat. Just let me know if you are talking 9 cat. 

 

Bringing this back to Greek...he is awesome. Draft him early. 

 

Definitely talking 9-cat...CP3 drops a ways in 8-cat (not that I play it). I think the best way to look at things historically is look at the JJ suns. He could make the ball sing when he was in that team. I agree not like Harden, but he was a very good passer with the suns. That is what I see from harden with more scoring and more of the ball. That is why I see CP3 averaging 9apg and not 11 like peak Nash. I think CP3 will be criminally underdrafted this year. I see harden being the one more affected by the move although with better efficiency.

 

Bringing this back to Greek...he is awesome. Draft him early. ;)

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If I have the no1 pick then i'm going with KD only cause I would feel safer. But you can't go wrong with either one. Only thing that worries me with KD is the rest he might get down the stretch given how competitive the West is, they would want their players to be 100% ready for playoffs. 

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I've made my case for Towns at #1 multiple times here (and I'm not going to let it go), I can tell you I've tried different mock builds with all 3 - KD, Towns, Giannis, and I got #1 the most with Towns (could be variance due to different picks at different spots but I have my build pretty down pat). I've gotten #1 projected a few times with KD / Giannis, but usually end up in the 3-5 range.

 

My case for Towns being #1 is the following (and I think I'm in the minority along with a few RW writers - Knauss/Dr A/Gallagher):

 

-> When you draft Giannis or KD, sure they replicate big man stats (blocks/great rebounds out of the SF spot/very high FG), and while KD is easier to build around than another fantasy player outside of Curry due to efficiency across the board, you have to make up for Giannis FT% deficiency (72% over the 2nd half last year back to his career norm) and 3 point deficiency. 

-> When you forego drafting a big in your first 2 rounds (hypothetically), it gets worse and dilutes in quality as the draft goes on (unlike other positions), there's some players I can't name currently (because my draft is about to go down and people from my league are stalking this) that can replicate you the value of choosing these SFs (somewhat). What happens with bigs is that you simply can't replicate the value of AD/Towns. No one is going to give you that amount of rebounds/3's/blocks while also being elite from FG/FT% line and among the best PPG guys in the NBA out of that position.

 

What I mean is, when you enter the 4th -5th round, your next choice of bigs tier wise are Horford (usually taken in the third so let's exclude him), Griffin, Vucevic, Valanciunas, Steven Adams, Pau Gasol, Capela Gortat, Nerlens Noel, WCS, Aldridge, Jusuf Nurkic that is a steep steep drop off. 

 

The problem when you choose one of these bigs is that they aren't perfectly well rounded, they hurt as much as they help so you're always playing a balancing act where you're trying to have them make up for one another's deficiencies. Say you take Valanciunas, well he doesn't do anything outside of rebound and efficiency (bad at blocks/steals/assists), take Gortat (he's quite subpar at FT%), take Jusuf (FG/TO issues - though FG issue may disappear on Portland).

 

No matter what, bigs come with glaring weaknesses as the draft continues, whether it's low PPG (Robin Lopez), poor rebounding (B. Lopez / Gasol), poor shot blocking (Valanciunas / Aldridge / Griffin), Games played (Pau, Jusuf), mediocre to bad FT% (Adams, Capela, etc.). 

I find that the reason I can so frequently get #1 projected with KAT is because I can replicate the stats of Giannis / KD by looking into the deep deep deep SG / SF pool of well-rounded guys at this position. I cannot find any bigs to even slightly give me what KAT or AD give, they may give the rebounds, but they'll kill your FT% and not hit 3's, etc. 

KAT is just as easy if not the easiest player to build around in fantasy imo. 

 

That being said, I would not blame ANYONE for taking Giannis. The upside with this guy is monstrous, but I hope you also take into account that despite the usage and despite the fact he's the alpha dog and there is no one else to take touches away from him like the other players in the top 8, he still has his weaknesses (3's, FT%, TO). It's entirely plausible that Giannis is who he is and he may just repeat the same statistical season he had last year but with his FT% being worse - which would land him right on the cusp of that top 5 ranking - not top 2. That jumpshot may never come (he has a slow awkward release push release and he leans back when he shoots and also has a whip back motion on his head, and keeps his feet together - it's pretty dreadful all around and one of the worst looking jumpshots in the NBA as far as I'm concerned - even when he does make jumpshots he often rims them (the ball bounces between both rims twice side to side before falling into the hoop - this is usually a sign of a poor release).

 

I'm not saying these things will happen, rather, keep them in your mind on draft day and draft accordingly.

 

 

Edited by Lifschitz
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1 hour ago, Lifschitz said:

KAT is just as easy if not the easiest player to build around in fantasy imo. 

 

You made a very good points to convince that KAT is the best, but I actually think that any player at 1st round is easy to build around. Maybe you don't share my opinion, but I have always had a feeling that decisive rounds at fantasy draft are starting from 4th to 8th. Who you pick at first rounds are not so important if you just follow the BPA rule, but later you have to find right players at middle rounds.

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1 hour ago, Lifschitz said:

My case for Towns being #1 is the following

 

The case against Towns is he just had two higher usage scorers come onto the team and Wiggins is still around about to be on a shinny (massive) new deal. And one the new boys is a straight up closer (Jimmy Buckets). His usage simply has to go down. 

 

Not saying he'll be bad by any stretch (he is going to beast it), but given that he falls out of the top 5 for me and especially below the top 2 of KD and Giannis

Edited by Jake the snake
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My issue with KAT at number 1 is that his playoff schedule is abysmal.  Even if his average rank was 1, I doubt it'd be much too far ahead of KD or any of the other top 5 guys.  In that case having those 2-3 extra games is better than having a marginally better better player.  

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