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D'Angelo Russell 2017-2018 Season Outlook


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Where are we drafting this guy in drafts with his new location in Brooklyn? Lin is the starting PG assuming, so DAR will play off-ball at the SG position. He was a very inefficient PG with the Lakers last season, shot a very putrid 40% from the field but got you 15 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists per game roughly with a steal per game. How much does his numbers improve, does he shoot better from the field? Does he shoot better from the FT% (Shot 78% last season), does he start or get benched like with Luke Walton?

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Found this when I was trying to find info on D’Angelo Russell. This guy is an orthopedic surgeon, and formerly an NFL team doctor. By his estimation, Russell should be back just after the new year. 

https://nypost.com/2017/12/22/nets-gm-dont-expect-to-see-russell-or-okafor-anytime-soon/   Russell is recovering from arthroscopic surgery back on Nov. 17. General manager Sean Marks said on

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I see him getting a ton of minutes. Think about it, Brooklyn lost their pick so trading for DLo was their "make-up", their chance to bank on a young lottery talent with potential. DLo is their attempt to remove the sour taste of losing their pick to the Celtics imo. 

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If you can stomach a bad fg%, Russell is going to be a very, very good fantasy player. He's at his best off the ball imo, but he's going to score alot, drill 3's, and steal the ball a good deal. He's also a good ft shooter, and and should end up in the 4-5 assist range. He's a solid pick somewhere in the 50-70 range, but he is the type of player who gets a big bump for a punt fg% team. On a standard $200 budget, he's probably worth right around $20 and I think he'll go to $25 in some drafts. I'd be more willing to pay $25 if I knew I was getting something like Rubio or Dame as my other guards, but I think he'll end up being a $20+ dollar player regardless. 

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Hmm I got him paired with AD/Jokic, why cant this guy shoot better? He actually shot worse in his 2nd season, bleh. I'm hoping he can improve it but these guys don't magically go from 40% to ~46%. Hes young though so I hope for my sake he gets better as I chose him as a keeper.

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On 9/28/2017 at 2:34 PM, rage2021 said:

Hmm I got him paired with AD/Jokic, why cant this guy shoot better? He actually shot worse in his 2nd season, bleh. I'm hoping he can improve it but these guys don't magically go from 40% to ~46%. Hes young though so I hope for my sake he gets better as I chose him as a keeper.

Yes, but he can jump 20-30% points in FG%, which will have a substantial positive impact.  A good comparison is Brandon Jennings, who in his 3rd season increased his FG% from .390 to .419.  He went from the 67th ranked 8 cat player to 21st that next season.  Russell's MPG should go up at least 5 per game, so his counting stats are definitely going to get a big boost.  If he can somehow make the FG% jump that Jennings did, while steadily increasing his FT% to around .800%, we are looking at a top 25 player with room for more.

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59 minutes ago, rage2021 said:

Hmm good first impression

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nba/news/132585/dangelo-russell-shines-preseason-win.php

 

Obviously its 1 game but I can see him averaging 22+ ppg as leading scorer on that team and more of a SG now. Just hope his popcorn stats and %'s hold up enough.

He shot 50% FG and 100% FT. Those %'s probably won't be holding up.

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I'm not confident he can be a 20ppg scorer. He'll have lots of opportunities, but I think that his limitations and streaky shooting, along with a woeful team, leave you with a 18/19 ppg guy with 40%-41% shooting. For where he's going in drafts, I'd rather wait a round or two and target Tim Hardaway or Avery Bradley who routinely seem to be going later than Russell. 

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On 9/28/2017 at 9:59 AM, Red Sox Nation said:

He's also a good ft shooter,

 

This is false.  He has shot 74% and 78% from the line in his first two seasons.  While he isn't going to hurt your FT% too bad, he probably won't be helping it a whole lot either.

 

He isn't going to be for everyone but he will be a great fit for those teams in rounds 5-6 who are punting FG% or started strong in FG% and can handle his.

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4 hours ago, BoogieNights said:

 

This is false.  He has shot 74% and 78% from the line in his first two seasons.  While he isn't going to hurt your FT% too bad, he probably won't be helping it a whole lot either.

 

He isn't going to be for everyone but he will be a great fit for those teams in rounds 5-6 who are punting FG% or started strong in FG% and can handle his.

 

Shot closer to 80% final 3 months, and 81.4% final 2 months, which is where I see him this year. 

Edited by Red Sox Nation
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I've seen him drafted top 50 a lot and while the potential is there i can't go for it

 

Nets play with pace and use their depth a lot...

 

They've got Lin, DLo, Kilpatrick, Dinwiddie, Whitehead, Crabbe that all have legitimate claims to minutes at the 1 or 2

 

Yes DLo will get his but unless you're punting FG% I think there are better options around where he's being drafted

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^ Also their coach has some dumb rule about giving every guy on the team just under a 30 mpg threshold.. that's never a good thing for fantasy. Couple that with his maddening inconsistency and I think he'll be overdrafted as usual. 

 

I had him last year, and I watched a ton of Lakers games, this guy is not a special prospect at all. He was supposed to be a superb passer coming out of college with "special" vision, they expected him to be a league leader type in assists, instead he's settled into a role of being a combo guard and chucking horribly ill-advised shots. He doesn't have explosive foot speed, he barely gets an inch off the floor, and his game is mostly predicated on sloppy pushoffs and difficult floaters when he gets in the lane. He usually can't beat his own man off the dribble - he always needs a screen to do so - which is pretty alarming considering where he was picked and what people expected. 

He has value as a multi cat points / 3's / rebounds / assists / steals guy with a sprinkle of blocks here and there, but he'll have 2/11 shooting nights with more turnovers than assists. He's still young, so maybe he shows better consistency moving forward, but I really don't see anything that jumps out in terms of his talent outside of a potentially good catch and shoot player.

 

He'll be a lot better this year on BKN than LA, but I'm still not buying at a 5th-6th round valuation (which is where you need to get him because after that there are no good point guards left and you enter the Brogdon / Lin / Collison 7th round area of low-end safe-line point guards, who are excellent as 3rd tier PGs but if those are your 2nd guys you're pretty screwed). 

 

 

 

 

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I think we also need to start questioning Gallagher's love with upside (I used to be guilty of the same thing). On his latest Pod he went gaga for Russell this year as a "post hype" sleeper, and he based it completely off of a game where he played the New York Knicks of all teams (arguably the worst team outside of Chicago whom will give up huge lines year-around); Russell then of course proceeds to play the Miami Heat and unsurprisingly goes 4-14, 1-7 on 3's, in 25 minutes. What I found frustrating is the narrative being spun, Mike conveniently didn't mention that Russell faced the Knicks - but just pointed out how solid the line was, we can all make our case for guys by ignoring obvious things. Buy high at your own risk.

 

All of the analysis just doesn't put into context that Russell isn't a special talent - he's just green lit to shoot like a turd because of where he was picked. Beasley was also picked high - we saw how that went. There's plenty of picks who look special in College and go top 5 and are mediocre to average at the NBA level (Marvin WIlliams). 

 

Mike's argument is that LA hid his knee injury which affected his performance, and that once the issue was out of the way he ended the year on a high note 18.6 / 2.8 / 4.8 / 1.8 and 2.6 3's in 14 March games (came with 42.7% FG, 75% FT on 3.4 attempts, 2.7 TOs). On the contrary, we need to look at the entire body of work and stop using single month splices to paint a picture that players can do that for the entire season. Knee injuries didn't cause Russell to take 30 foot 3 pointers 5 seconds into the shot clock with a guy in his face, that was his own doing, and this is where observation has to be factored in with statistics. The same goes for Mirotic, he's not going to suddenly up his FG% because of opportunity, he plays like a bonehead and thinks he's Gilbert Arenas. 

 

Mike is pretty much telling everyone to grab the all upside guys - he explained they had to reach given their "RW expert" drafts:

 

Russell

Chriss

Aaron Gordon

Jamal Murray

 

The only one on that list that makes sense to reach his ADP as a safe pick is Aaron Gordon. If you reach on any of those other guys you could get BADLY burned. 

 

You go ahead and take Chriss in the 5th, and I'll take Vucevic (just as an example), who do you think wins that pick?

 

 

Edited by Lifschitz
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5 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

I think we also need to start questioning Gallagher's love with upside (I used to be guilty of the same thing). On his latest Pod he went gaga for Russell this year as a "post hype" sleeper, and he based it completely off of a game where he played the New York Knicks of all teams (arguably the worst team outside of Chicago whom will give up huge lines year-around); Russell then of course proceeds to play the Miami Heat and unsurprisingly goes 4-14, 1-7 on 3's, in 25 minutes. What I found frustrating is the narrative being spun, Mike conveniently didn't mention that Russell faced the Knicks - but just pointed out how solid the line was, we can all make our case for guys by ignoring obvious things. Buy high at your own risk.

 

All of the analysis just doesn't put into context that Russell isn't a special talent - he's just green lit to shoot like a turd because of where he was picked. Beasley was also picked high - we saw how that went. There's plenty of picks who look special in College and go top 5 and are mediocre to average at the NBA level (Marvin WIlliams). 

 

Mike's argument is that LA hid his knee injury which affected his performance, and that once the issue was out of the way he ended the year on a high note 18.6 / 2.8 / 4.8 / 1.8 and 2.6 3's in 14 March games (came with 42.7% FG, 75% FT on 3.4 attempts, 2.7 TOs). On the contrary, we need to look at the entire body of work and stop using single month splices to paint a picture that players can do that for the entire season. Knee injuries didn't cause Russell to take 30 foot 3 pointers 5 seconds into the shot clock with a guy in his face, that was his own doing, and this is where observation has to be factored in with statistics. The same goes for Mirotic, he's not going to suddenly up his FG% because of opportunity, he plays like a bonehead and thinks he's Gilbert Arenas. 

 

Mike is pretty much telling everyone to grab the all upside guys - he explained they had to reach given their "RW expert" drafts:

 

Russell

Chriss

Aaron Gordon

Jamal Murray

 

The only one on that list that makes sense to reach his ADP as a safe pick is Aaron Gordon. If you reach on any of those other guys you could get BADLY burned. 

 

You go ahead and take Chriss in the 5th, and I'll take Vucevic (just as an example), who do you think wins that pick?

 

 

Funny enough I got Chriss and Russel as my last keeper (6th). Debating which one to keep.

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7 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

I think we also need to start questioning Gallagher's love with upside (I used to be guilty of the same thing). On his latest Pod he went gaga for Russell this year as a "post hype" sleeper, and he based it completely off of a game where he played the New York Knicks of all teams (arguably the worst team outside of Chicago whom will give up huge lines year-around); Russell then of course proceeds to play the Miami Heat and unsurprisingly goes 4-14, 1-7 on 3's, in 25 minutes. What I found frustrating is the narrative being spun, Mike conveniently didn't mention that Russell faced the Knicks - but just pointed out how solid the line was, we can all make our case for guys by ignoring obvious things. Buy high at your own risk.

 

All of the analysis just doesn't put into context that Russell isn't a special talent - he's just green lit to shoot like a turd because of where he was picked. Beasley was also picked high - we saw how that went. There's plenty of picks who look special in College and go top 5 and are mediocre to average at the NBA level (Marvin WIlliams). 

 

Mike's argument is that LA hid his knee injury which affected his performance, and that once the issue was out of the way he ended the year on a high note 18.6 / 2.8 / 4.8 / 1.8 and 2.6 3's in 14 March games (came with 42.7% FG, 75% FT on 3.4 attempts, 2.7 TOs). On the contrary, we need to look at the entire body of work and stop using single month splices to paint a picture that players can do that for the entire season. Knee injuries didn't cause Russell to take 30 foot 3 pointers 5 seconds into the shot clock with a guy in his face, that was his own doing, and this is where observation has to be factored in with statistics. The same goes for Mirotic, he's not going to suddenly up his FG% because of opportunity, he plays like a bonehead and thinks he's Gilbert Arenas. 

 

Mike is pretty much telling everyone to grab the all upside guys - he explained they had to reach given their "RW expert" drafts:

 

Russell

Chriss

Aaron Gordon

Jamal Murray

 

The only one on that list that makes sense to reach his ADP as a safe pick is Aaron Gordon. If you reach on any of those other guys you could get BADLY burned. 

 

You go ahead and take Chriss in the 5th, and I'll take Vucevic (just as an example), who do you think wins that pick?

 

 

Great post.

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