Low and Away 1,574 Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 Rumor is the Cards are going to try for Donaldson. Be an interesting place. Link to post Share on other sites
tonycpsu 5,400 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 For what it's worth, I collected the draft results (so far) from four "expert" mock drafts happening on couchmanagers.com right now: rank1 rank2 rank3 rank4 adp player Mike Trout 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Jose Altuve 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Paul Goldschmidt 4.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 3.0 Nolan Arenado 5.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 4.0 Trea Turner 3.0 4.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 Bryce Harper 8.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 6.5 Charlie Blackmon 6.0 7.0 3.0 8.0 6.5 Clayton Kershaw 11.0 8.0 11.0 4.0 8.0 Joey Votto 7.0 12.0 7.0 10.0 9.0 Mookie Betts 10.0 10.0 8.0 13.0 10.0 Giancarlo Stanton 19.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 11.0 Max Scherzer 12.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 Carlos Correa 9.0 17.0 17.0 11.0 13.0 Chris Sale 13.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.0 Manny Machado 24.0 11.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 Kris Bryant 17.0 13.0 16.0 18.0 16.0 Anthony Rizzo 14.0 22.0 14.0 17.0 17.0 Freddie Freeman 22.0 20.0 22.0 16.0 18.5 Corey Kluber 15.0 19.0 19.0 27.0 18.5 Josh Donaldson 20.0 18.0 23.0 20.0 20.0 Jose Ramirez 18.0 28.0 18.0 22.0 21.0 Francisco Lindor 21.0 23.0 27.0 19.0 22.0 Aaron Judge 28.0 16.0 21.0 26.0 23.0 J.D. Martinez 26.0 26.0 20.0 21.0 24.0 Dee Gordon 16.0 34.0 24.0 25.0 25.0 Four drafts isn't a lot of data, and the market will change a lot between now and draft season, but I think this gives a decent look at what the market is like right now. Link to post Share on other sites
EmbargoLifted 910 Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 I'm really shocked that Blackmon is going ahead of Betts in expert drafts. He's clearly the value pick in the first round ... the rest i don't have much disagreement with. One other nitpick also is that i would move Jose Ramirez up quite a bit .. his 2B eligibility and 5 cat skill set makes his floor much higher than some of the guys going ahead of him. Link to post Share on other sites
b0nfire 412 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Looks like I'm drafting Josh Donaldson for value next year Link to post Share on other sites
absknicks 3,004 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. Link to post Share on other sites
EmbargoLifted 910 Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 A lot of Blackmon's value is tied to an inflated batting average .. he's a .300 hitter, not a .330 hitter. he's also going to be 32 next year .. i just see a lot of potential downside whether by injury, bad babip luck, reduction in steal attempts, regression in power, etc. Where Betts is a near lock for 100/20/20/100/.290 (granted his babip regresses), and at 24/25 he could still take his game to another level. At the end of the day, im a very conservative drafter in the first round. A player's floor is more important to me than ceiling. And Bett's seems like the safer pick (youth, better chance to replicate an elite season, etc. etc. etc.) Link to post Share on other sites
sleepysock 837 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, absknicks said: Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. OPS means nothing in fantasy baseball (in most league). He's had a "bad" year while throwing up 24 HRs, 26 steals, 101 runs, and 102 RBI. Those are massive counting stats. Only his BA keeps him from being a top 10 player, and his s---y BABIP is in large part responsible for that. If I'm drafting at the end of the first round I'm taking Betts and not thinking twice about it. Link to post Share on other sites
EmbargoLifted 910 Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, sleepysock said: OPS means nothing in fantasy baseball (in most league). He's had a "bad" year while throwing up 24 HRs, 26 steals, 101 runs, and 102 RBI. Those are massive counting stats. Only his BA keeps him from being a top 10 player, and his s---y BABIP is in large part responsible for that. If I'm drafting after the first 3 or 4 picks I'm taking Betts and not thinking twice about it. fixed there's a clear top 5 before a drop: 1. Trout 2. Altuve 3. Goldschmidt 4. Arenado 5. Betts Those guys are in the prime of their careers, have several years of elite performance, have clean or near clean injury histories, etc. After those 5 ... there's tons of talent but all come with various levels of question marks. Link to post Share on other sites
brockpapersizer 11,967 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 52 minutes ago, absknicks said: Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. I don't think anyone's not admitting he wasn't somewhat a disappointment. He was generally the number 2 or 3 player off the board and is finishing in the low 30s. I have to say, if this is his non injury floor sign me up. 20-20-100-100 for a 24 year old. I too am not thinking twice about nabbing him in the middle of the first. Lots of players disappoint in fantasy. Link to post Share on other sites
tonycpsu 5,400 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 More fun with mock draft data. Here's the ADP risers and fallers from 2016. Link to post Share on other sites
jfazz23 2,530 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 1 hour ago, absknicks said: Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. i agree....think its nuts people dont think blackmon goes before him Link to post Share on other sites
jfazz23 2,530 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 1 hour ago, EmbargoLifted said: A lot of Blackmon's value is tied to an inflated batting average .. he's a .300 hitter, not a .330 hitter. he's also going to be 32 next year .. i just see a lot of potential downside whether by injury, bad babip luck, reduction in steal attempts, regression in power, etc. Where Betts is a near lock for 100/20/20/100/.290 (granted his babip regresses), and at 24/25 he could still take his game to another level. At the end of the day, im a very conservative drafter in the first round. A player's floor is more important to me than ceiling. And Bett's seems like the safer pick (youth, better chance to replicate an elite season, etc. etc. etc.) unless blackmon gets traded or they move the fences back 100 feet blackmon is the guy id take (redraft) over betts @EmbargoLifted -im willing to take turner over arenado and betts @brockpapersizer -this might be something we can agree on Link to post Share on other sites
colepenhagen 3,565 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 with trea hitting 143 pts below his ops last year he has a pace of ... 285 avg, 18 hrs, 75 sb, 125 runs, 75 rbis yes ik people (me included sometimes) dont like just multiplying their numbers out but look at that line in a sophomore campaign, with harper inj also trea wont play 162 games i might have to think about moving him up over goldy as goldy sb numbers are no lock (stole 7 and 5 bags the first two months then only stole 1 or 2 bags per month ROS Link to post Share on other sites
jfazz23 2,530 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, colepenhagen said: with trea hitting 143 pts below his ops last year he has a pace of ... 285 avg, 18 hrs, 75 sb, 125 runs, 75 rbis yes ik people (me included sometimes) dont like just multiplying their numbers out but look at that line in a sophomore campaign, with harper inj also trea wont play 162 games i might have to think about moving him up over goldy as goldy sb numbers are no lock (stole 7 and 5 bags the first two months then only stole 1 or 2 bags per month ROS gonna be tough to take him ahead of goldie though....i can see an argument for turner at 4 though Link to post Share on other sites
EmbargoLifted 910 Posted October 1, 2017 Author Share Posted October 1, 2017 Yes, Turner is the more tantalizing talent ... but always go with safe high floor picks in the first. You're not trying to win your league in the first round -- you are trying to avoid losing it in the first round. Link to post Share on other sites
colepenhagen 3,565 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said: Yes, Turner is the more tantalizing talent ... but always go with safe high floor picks in the first. You're not trying to win your league in the first round -- you are trying to avoid losing it in the first round. whats not safe about turner? he got hit in the wrist... im not labeling him inj prone or docking him anything... he had a minor leg/groin inj that was minimal his floor is higher than mookies if both play 150+ games anyways will be interesting to see where harpers adp will be as some will still have him top 5-6 and some will not touch him in the 1st rd (maybe at the turn) Link to post Share on other sites
taobball 7,483 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 2 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said: A lot of Blackmon's value is tied to an inflated batting average .. he's a .300 hitter, not a .330 hitter. he's also going to be 32 next year .. i just see a lot of potential downside whether by injury, bad babip luck, reduction in steal attempts, regression in power, etc. Where Betts is a near lock for 100/20/20/100/.290 (granted his babip regresses), and at 24/25 he could still take his game to another level. At the end of the day, im a very conservative drafter in the first round. A player's floor is more important to me than ceiling. And Bett's seems like the safer pick (youth, better chance to replicate an elite season, etc. etc. etc.) I'm confused by the first two lines. How is he a .300 hitter and not a .330 hitter? He's at .324 and .329 the last two years. That's quite a bit better than .300. Link to post Share on other sites
ChicksDigTheOPS 2,496 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 I'm nutty high on Turner, but top-5 seems aggressive. True 100-steal upside but he simply isn't as proven. I do think this was Mookie's true floor. The fact that he can have prolonged slumps, and OPS under .800, and still put up these nice counting stats, just cements him as a fantasy darling for me... and with some positive BABIP regression, the sky is the limit. Here's some trivia for you: -I have hit 166 home runs over the last four seasons, and haven't hit below .260 since a partial season in 2007. -I has 75 career stolen bases, and I have led the league in both home runs in RBI -My team mascot uses one, but not like the one the image of my name conjures -I have not been mentioned in any of the lists or comments so far! Who Am I? Link to post Share on other sites
taobball 7,483 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said: I'm nutty high on Turner, but top-5 seems aggressive. True 100-steal upside but he simply isn't as proven. I do think this was Mookie's true floor. The fact that he can have prolonged slumps, and OPS under .800, and still put up these nice counting stats, just cements him as a fantasy darling for me... and with some positive BABIP regression, the sky is the limit. Here's some trivia for you: -this player has hit 136 home runs over the last four seasons, and hasn't hit below .260 since a partial season in 2007. -his team mascot uses one, but not like the one the image of his name conjures -he has 75 career stolen bases, and has led the league in both home runs in RBI -he isn't mentioned in any of the lists or comments so far! Pretty sure you mean 166 homers. Link to post Share on other sites
ChicksDigTheOPS 2,496 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, taobball said: Pretty sure you mean 166 homers. you have won the contest! and yes, the math was off by 30 or so dingers, and yes, the answer is Daniel Descalso. Link to post Share on other sites
XxxOilOverloadxxX 1,958 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 You have to be on PCP to not have Blackmon in your top 10 Link to post Share on other sites
brockpapersizer 11,967 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 2 hours ago, jfazz23 said: unless blackmon gets traded or they move the fences back 100 feet blackmon is the guy id take (redraft) over betts @brockpapersizer -this might be something we can agree on It's interesting this thread has turned into Blackmon vs Betts. I'm Team Betts, but I don't think taking Blackmon over him is a bad move. I play a lot of roto, so I value the steals a lot more. Betts has mustered basically the same amount of steals as he did last year (26 vs 25 this year) in about 20 less PAs.... and this is with a 267 BABIP. For me it's thinking Betts is going to hit over 300, steal 30 bags, and hit 25-30 Home Runs in the middle of a potent lineup. Betts contact rate is basically the same last year and his walks have improved to a career high, and by significant margin. With an improve babip to go with his 10+ walk rate, I don't think 35 steals is out of the question. I'm also willing to change my mind, this is a good debate though. Link to post Share on other sites
colepenhagen 3,565 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 2 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said: I'm nutty high on Turner, but top-5 seems aggressive. True 100-steal upside but he simply isn't as proven. I do think this was Mookie's true floor. The fact that he can have prolonged slumps, and OPS under .800, and still put up these nice counting stats, just cements him as a fantasy darling for me... and with some positive BABIP regression, the sky is the limit. Here's some trivia for you: -I have hit 166 home runs over the last four seasons, and haven't hit below .260 since a partial season in 2007. -I has 75 career stolen bases, and I have led the league in both home runs in RBI -My team mascot uses one, but not like the one the image of my name conjures -I have not been mentioned in any of the lists or comments so far! Who Am I? did i get popped for peds and misplay a ball in the WS vs STL that could of won the series with two outs in the 9th? Link to post Share on other sites
Fuzzy_Slippers 3,941 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 2 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said: I'm nutty high on Turner, but top-5 seems aggressive. True 100-steal upside but he simply isn't as proven. I do think this was Mookie's true floor. The fact that he can have prolonged slumps, and OPS under .800, and still put up these nice counting stats, just cements him as a fantasy darling for me... and with some positive BABIP regression, the sky is the limit. Here's some trivia for you: -I have hit 166 home runs over the last four seasons, and haven't hit below .260 since a partial season in 2007. -I has 75 career stolen bases, and I have led the league in both home runs in RBI -My team mascot uses one, but not like the one the image of my name conjures -I have not been mentioned in any of the lists or comments so far! Who Am I? Nelson Cruz. Link to post Share on other sites
Fiveohnine 1,505 Posted October 1, 2017 Share Posted October 1, 2017 8 hours ago, brockpapersizer said: ...I play a lot of roto, so I value the steals a lot more... I think the guys who don't put any SPs anywhere near their top 12-15 are virtually all h2h players too. roto/h2h really has a significant impact on this discussion tbh. Link to post Share on other sites
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