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Dewayne Dedmon Season Outlook 2017-2018


paokmaniak
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The earliest I've seen him go is 115.  That's crazy to me, considering he was already a quasi starter/useful player at the end of last season in my 16 teamer, and that was averaging 18 mpg.  I think he's a solid five minutes more this year, so it's just a no-brainer.  His upside isn't super high, but his floor is.  I'd feel really good grabbing him in the last three rounds.

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I'm definitely targeting him in 9 cat roto; his rebs/blocks combined with more than decent FT% make him quite a good late round target. 

 

BBM has him projected 73rd in per game value with averages of 7.5 - 9.1 - 0.9 - 0.7 - 1.4 on .602 FG% and .704 FT%. In my 14 teamer that would be 6th round value, but I'm probably targeting him from the 9th round onwards (or late 8th if I'm in need of a C).

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11 hours ago, lbjames6 said:

If I go punt points I love him in the end game.

Why would you have to punt points by picking this guy at the end of the draft??  Unless you're filling the rest of your team with guys like Draymond, Rubio, Roberson etc., I think you'll be just fine with your 9 other players and Dedmon.

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1 hour ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Why would you have to punt points by picking this guy at the end of the draft??  Unless you're filling the rest of your team with guys like Draymond, Rubio, Roberson etc., I think you'll be just fine with your 9 other players and Dedmon.

 

I did not say I would have to punt points if I picked Dedmon. What I implied was that if I decide to do a punt points build he'll be a great value at the end of the draft.

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I will absolutely target him in auction, but I think he'll end up out of my price range (I'll spend $5-$10 on him, or 2.5 - 5% of budget). I see him as being one of those guys who gets thrown out later in the draft, and people realize he's one of their last shots at blocks/rebs and bids him up to $13-$15. I plan on tossing him out earlier, in hopes people don't care for his name and I can grab for $8 or less. The rebs and blocks should be pretty sweet, and he's a great guy to add if you've got points under control. 

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I just don't see him getting the minutes in that front court. He's a 25 minute a night player in this small ball spaced out league with what will likely be inconsistent minutes depending on hot hand and matchups. Unless I'm in a deep league, I like him as a $1-$5 player, but not enough to get all that excited. 

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2 hours ago, Philzilla said:

I just don't see him getting the minutes in that front court. He's a 25 minute a night player in this small ball spaced out league with what will likely be inconsistent minutes depending on hot hand and matchups. Unless I'm in a deep league, I like him as a $1-$5 player, but not enough to get all that excited. 

 

I think 25 minutes / night would be incredible for Deadmon!  He's averaged 0.8 blocks in 14 minutes/game for his career.  With 25 minutes/game he'll be close to 10 boards and 1.5 blocks/game.  Pretty good for end game pick

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3 hours ago, Philzilla said:

I just don't see him getting the minutes in that front court. He's a 25 minute a night player in this small ball spaced out league with what will likely be inconsistent minutes depending on hot hand and matchups. Unless I'm in a deep league, I like him as a $1-$5 player, but not enough to get all that excited. 

 

I dont think 25+ minutes a night for Dedmon would be any coaches first choice, but who else do you see taking time from him?

They have Dedmon, Muscala, Ilyasova, Collins and I think he will play at least half the game (barring fouls) out of necessity.

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Some background info on his fouls:

 

Out of the 22 players (minimum 45 games played) who averaged 4.9 or more fouls per 36, only Alex Len (20.2), Chriss (21.3) and Nene (18.9) played more minutes per game than Dedmon (17.9). Ed Davis is the only other one to average more than 17 minutes a game.

 

Over his career, Dedmon averaged 5.5 fouls per 36 minutes. The 4.9 per 36 are 100% Pop's achievement. Where many complained about Dedmon's role, most forgot he fouls ways too much. 

 

Take the following information into consideration:

 

Over the last 10 seasons, only 20 centers averaged 4.9 fouls/36 and averaged more than 20 minutes. Only 6 started more than 42 games in the season they averaged 4.9+ pf/36 and 20mpg+.

 

Boogie (5.2pf/36, 28.5 mpg in 2010 at age 20), Embiid (5.1 pf/36, 25.4 mpg in 2016 at age 22) and Hibbert (5 pf/36, 25.1 mpg in 2009 at age 23) averaged more than 24 minutes a game. To compare - Dedmon is 28 years old.

 

Dedmon's career average is 5.5 pf/36. No player over the last 10 seasons played 24+ minutes when averaging 5.5 pf/36. Oden played 23.9 but only played 21 games. Biedrins 23.1, but only 33 games. All others? 21 minutes per game max. 

 

In short- it's unrealistic to expect Dedmon to play much more than 20 minutes a game. He doesn't have Pop, he has undisciplined or young players around him, and no real rimprotectors on the team, other than himself (and he's not great there either) - mistakes will be made, and Dedmon will have to correct these mistakes as their sole (maybe Plumlee counts - thats probably the reason they brought him in) rim protector. 

 

 

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He doesn't have Pop

 

Well, he has Bud, who spent 18 seasons with the Spurs :)  (but true point here)

 

I took Dedmond at 140 at the end of my draft, than watched Hawks first preaseson game. He started with the few other players on Atlanta's team who can play some defense, so this could be a good sign in case of his foul trouble as he will get some support (Collins came from the bench and played with Bellinelli and Muscala, so he was pretty much alone under the rim). They run some pnr through Dedmond, so he will be good for some easy points, and its obvious he is their best option to defend the rim so I'm sure they want to have him on the court most time and specially at the end of the game. Guess in the long term it could add up to 25min a game, so you get something like 9p,10r,1.5bl . Like Dieng with bad ft%, so if you need a big man with one of your last pick, I would not worry picking Dedmond.

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I don't want to call it the "elephant in the room", because it's not exactly that, but the background thing that intrinsically factors into the fouls is Pop's philosophy on back up big man fouls.  Remember that for the first decade of Pop's coaching tenure, his number one problem was Shaq.  In as much as Pop and Phil Jackson were huge rivals, Pop took a page out of Phil's book when it came to looking at big man fouls as a commodity to spend:  Phil used to talk about how second threepeat Bulls, between Longley, Wennington and their ever-changing third center, had 18 fouls to give and make life harder on Shaq/send him to the line.  

 

Pop never went that far but it also shaped his coaching style.  He's always considered it part of back up big men's JOB to "use" their fouls.  I'm not saying Dedmon is the most disciplined center defender of all time or even a very disciplined one, but I am saying that Pop encouraged him to be aggressive out there because they both knew he was rarely going to get over 20 minutes a game, so he might as well as be.

 

Quick example: between January 19th and February 15th, Pau was out so Dedmon played more (he started some and David Lee started some, if you recall).  He averaged 21 minutes during that time but managed to keep his fouls at 3.1 per game, because Pop told him because there was less frontcourt depth.  He didn't get more than 4 fouls in any one game there, but Pau came back and three games later, Dedmon fouls out in 16 minutes.  Why?  Not because he lost the ability to not foul, but Pop told him to be more aggressive.

 

I think he can manage 23-24 minutes without significant foul problems.

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8 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

I don't want to call it the "elephant in the room", because it's not exactly that, but the background thing that intrinsically factors into the fouls is Pop's philosophy on back up big man fouls.  Remember that for the first decade of Pop's coaching tenure, his number one problem was Shaq.  In as much as Pop and Phil Jackson were huge rivals, Pop took a page out of Phil's book when it came to looking at big man fouls as a commodity to spend:  Phil used to talk about how second threepeat Bulls, between Longley, Wennington and their ever-changing third center, had 18 fouls to give and make life harder on Shaq/send him to the line.  

 

Pop never went that far but it also shaped his coaching style.  He's always considered it part of back up big men's JOB to "use" their fouls.  I'm not saying Dedmon is the most disciplined center defender of all time or even a very disciplined one, but I am saying that Pop encouraged him to be aggressive out there because they both knew he was rarely going to get over 20 minutes a game, so he might as well as be.

 

Quick example: between January 19th and February 15th, Pau was out so Dedmon played more (he started some and David Lee started some, if you recall).  He averaged 21 minutes during that time but managed to keep his fouls at 3.1 per game, because Pop told him because there was less frontcourt depth.  He didn't get more than 4 fouls in any one game there, but Pau came back and three games later, Dedmon fouls out in 16 minutes.  Why?  Not because he lost the ability to not foul, but Pop told him to be more aggressive.

 

I think he can manage 23-24 minutes without significant foul problems.

 

Great post, thanks... totally made me rethink his whole "fouls per 36" outlook. Looking further at his career splits, in 78 games as a starter he averages 20:11 minutes and 2.6 PF, with 7.3 boards and a block a game. Expand that out to 30 minutes and it averages out to about 4 fouls. I'll take that with the 10+ rebounds and 1.5 swats that would go along with it.

 

In comparison, as a sub in his career he's played 11:37 minutes a game and averaged 2 fouls, giving credence to the notion of his taking a more aggressive approach coming off the bench. Happy to have added him as my 4th center in a deep dynasty league!

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41 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

Worse blocks, worse steals, even worse scorer. Not really. 

 

Willie has effectively zero offensive game at this point. He tries to force it, but it's not there. This coming from a lifelong Kings fan. Given the complexity of the Kings roster, I would personally rather have Dedmon this year in a redraft. I think willie splits time with Kosta and I would rather have Dedmon's rebounding and blocks on better FT shooting. But it is close, could end up either way. 

Edited by jay14bay
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