Josh Richardson 2017-2018 Outlook

[Lifschitz 2,246]

12 minutes ago, adithmuluk said:

Josh Richardson... will he be able to get enough minutes since it's very crowded right now in the Heat back court / wings...?

 

No offense man I know it's your 1st post, but you should definitely read the thread before posting that.

[adithmuluk 104]

Sorry bout that. 

[Quazza 2,336]

just for reference for anyone that hasn't drafted yet, I just got him at 128 and had someone yell "f---!! Was just searching for him! "as I did so

[Jake the snake 1,749]

9 hours ago, Lifschitz said:

 

No offense man I know it's your 1st post, but you should definitely read the thread before posting that.

 

Its definitely still an on-going debate though. There are just so many bodies in there. I think unless an injury opens something up he can't really average more than 24mpg

 

PG: Dragic 32, Johnson13, Richardson 3

SG: Johnson 10, Waiters 22, Richardson 8, Ellington 8

SF: McGruder 22, Richardson 13, Winslow 10, Ellington 3

PF: Johnson 25, Winslow 11, Olynyk 12,

C: Whites 32, Olynyk 8, Adebayo 8

 

I still think that is conservative for guys like Winslow, Ellington, Waiters, and Tyler Johnson. Its a tough situation, they are just so deep

[Lifschitz 2,246]

11 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

Its definitely still an on-going debate though. There are just so many bodies in there. I think unless an injury opens something up he can't really average more than 24mpg

 

PG: Dragic 32, Johnson13, Richardson 3

SG: Johnson 10, Waiters 22, Richardson 8, Ellington 8

SF: McGruder 22, Richardson 13, Winslow 10, Ellington 3

PF: Johnson 25, Winslow 11, Olynyk 12,

C: Whites 32, Olynyk 8, Adebayo 8

 

I still think that is conservative for guys like Winslow, Ellington, Waiters, and Tyler Johnson. Its a tough situation, they are just so deep

 

I think where you may have got the minutes spread wrong is on McGruder. He will not average more minutes at SF than Richardson, that's where we disagree.

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2581190/josh-richardson

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2488826/rodney-mcgruder

 

Just for comparison sake through preseason.. and I mean this was the case last year as well. One guy is a two-way player, McGruder isn't really a known commodity at this point. Richardson has massive defensive upside + a developing offensive game. 

 

One guy has 0 steals or blocks through 3, the other has 5 blocks, 6 steals, and 10 assists to boot (I know one of the starts came at PG). 

 

It's entirely likely that Ellington is the odd man out minutes wise and may see DNP-CDs considering the roster is at full health. 

 

 

Edited October 9, 2017 by Lifschitz

[Jake the snake 1,749]

47 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:

 

I think where you may have got the minutes spread wrong is on McGruder. He will not average more minutes at SF than Richardson, that's where we disagree.

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/2581190/josh-richardson

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/2488826/rodney-mcgruder

 

Just for comparison sake through preseason.. and I mean this was the case last year as well. One guy is a two-way player, McGruder isn't really a known commodity at this point. Richardson has massive defensive upside + a developing offensive game. 

 

One guy has 0 steals or blocks through 3, the other has 5 blocks, 6 steals, and 10 assists to boot (I know one of the starts came at PG). 

 

It's entirely likely that Ellington is the odd man out minutes wise and may see DNP-CDs considering the roster is at full health. 

 

 

 

You're obviously massively high on Richardson. I am too. He has huge potential (mainly in fantasyland). But you're skewing minutes in his favour to sell your argument. I feel I skewed minutes in his favour just to get him to 24.

 

Waiters min of 22 mpg (that is very conservative - they need his offense - and they paid him big time), McGruder will see very min of 20, Winslow min 22, Tyler J min 23, James J min 25, Ellington (he is not out of the rotation - that is just not true - he averaged 25 mpg last year and the team picked up is 6.25M option - they want him around) min 10, Dragic you can lock in for 32.

 

Again I pegged guys at conservative mins to get 24 for Richardson. At this point Waiters, Tyler Johnson, McGruder, and maybe even Ellington are all probably better offensively than Richardson and none of them are bad defenders. i'd say they are all quite good defenders. Yes I would put Richardson ahead of them in defensively, but it is not by a country mile. Richardson makes quite a few mistakes on D he gets away with some of them via his athelticism and length, but not all.

Blocks and steals don't not equate to good defense. Again he is a good defender, but you are letting his stocks do his defensive talking for him rather than analysing his game like @HarmStrong got criticized for earlier.

 

He is a really handy player, but his upside is limited on this roster due to opportunity. I'm just saying don't draft him expecting a massive breakout. He is a low-end glue guy unless injuries open up minutes (and he is not exactly a figure of fitness himself throughout his career)

Edited October 9, 2017 by Jake the snake

[Red Sox Nation 3,178]

There's a log jam, but Richardson is flat out more talented than any guard/wing on that team except for Dragic. I think that he'll play a huge role for them.

 

The pre-season is going to have Richardson's adp/auction price probably out of my range. I had him listed as a must-have guy who'll smash his ADP, but now it's more of a question mark. Since he doesn't score a ton, or rebound, he'll be relying on a big rebound in fg% (to prior levels) to jump into the top 100. There's no doubt that he has that upside, and there's a darn good chance he's top 100, but the profit margin here is rapidly shrinking.

 

In snakes he's a target for me starting around pick 90, especially if I need 3's/blocks. Auction there's no way I'm sneaking him for under 3% anymore, and I can see him going up to a full 7-8% of budget (some people go really nuts over pre-season and rotoworld hype). I'd still grab him for 5% of budget, but if he gets much higher I'll just pivot to another ADP profit player, like an Ingles or Prince. 

[Code of Hammurabi 4,371]

I generally hate Miami players besides Dragic and Whiteside. They are routinely in the bottom of the league in terms of pace. In addition, they run their rotations sometimes to the extreme based on matchups. Fringe players on the heat can be maddening to own.Owners need to be weary of lots of inconsistency with playing time. I could see J-Rich posting 15 points-5rebs-3 steals- 1 block one game, followed by 4 points-7rebs- 1 block. I personally think, he extremely talented and would love to see him on another roster. That being said, he might put it all together this season so we'll see. You could do worse with a 12th or 13th round pick. 

[Tr3yball 198]

1 hour ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

I generally hate Miami players besides Dragic and Whiteside. They are routinely in the bottom of the league in terms of pace. In addition, they run their rotations sometimes to the extreme based on matchups. Fringe players on the heat can be maddening to own.Owners need to be weary of lots of inconsistency with playing time. I could see J-Rich posting 15 points-5rebs-3 steals- 1 block one game, followed by 4 points-7rebs- 1 block. I personally think, he extremely talented and would love to see him on another roster. That being said, he might put it all together this season so we'll see. You could do worse with a 12th or 13th round pick. 

 

TBF, those are still serviceable numbers even on bad nights in deep leagues. Gotta get production in any way or shape to win. He's just so intriguing because of the money stats/stocks and the talent being a swiss army knife for the young core. He's gone undrafted in alot of standard 9 cat 12-league mocks I've done this yr except a few but then again it is just mock and people might be more inclined to take a flier on him come draft night but I hope not

[BetterCallHinkie 531]

Joshy Rich is like Bledsoe when he was on the Clippers. He would be beast in a different situation. 

[lethotjames 520]

lol mcgruder/ellington should not be playing nba minutes in favor of j rich

[Jake the snake 1,749]

56 minutes ago, lethotjames said:

lol mcgruder/ellington should not be playing nba minutes in favor of j rich

 

McGruder and Ellington averaged 24.5 and 23 mins per game from Jan 17th until the end of the season when they went 30-11 (from their 13-game win streak onwards), respectively (27 and 24.5 mpg during the 13 game win streak). 

 

Richardson played no part in the win streak. But averaged 34.5 mpg towards over the last 16 games when they went 9-7.

 

Again I'm not saying McGruder and Ellington are better than Richardson, but they are good players. They make their team better by being in the team. Just because someone doesn't put up good fantasy numbers doesn't mean they are a bad basketballer...a lot of people on this site seem to forget that reality is far more important than pure 9-cat statistics in actually getting minutes (I see you Gorgui Dieng). There are a lot of good defenders out there that don't get steals or blocks and there are a lot of bad defenders out there that do and get blown by all the time making bad gambles on D . Need to watch games too not just box-scores

Edited October 9, 2017 by Jake the snake

[PuzzBeterson 1,089]

I see people mix up fantasy value and real life value. McGruder is a candidate to start and play a good amount of minutes for them, because he fits well with the rest of their top rotation guys.

 

Does he provide fantasy value? Very little. Does he kill fantasy darlings like Josh? Yes. Do Riley and the staff care? Nope.

 

 

This reminds me of talking to some people on prior leagues I played in- they never watched games and only cared about boxscores and advanced stats. Thats how you start missing things like this. Amazes me how people love fantasy sports more than the actual game.

Edited October 9, 2017 by PuzzBeterson

[Code of Hammurabi 4,371]

9 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I see people mix up fantasy value and real life value. McGruder is a candidate to start and play a good amount of minutes for them, because he fits well with the rest of their top rotation guys.

 

Does he provide fantasy value? Very little. Does he kill fantasy darlings like Josh? Yes. Do Riley and the staff care? Nope.

 

 

This reminds me of talking to some people on prior leagues I played in- they never watched games and only cared about boxscores and advanced stats. Thats how you start missing things like this. Amazes me how people love fantasy sports more than the actual game.

Well said. Good post

[Jake the snake 1,749]

32 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

I see people mix up fantasy value and real life value. McGruder is a candidate to start and play a good amount of minutes for them, because he fits well with the rest of their top rotation guys.

 

Does he provide fantasy value? Very little. Does he kill fantasy darlings like Josh? Yes. Do Riley and the staff care? Nope.

 

 

This reminds me of talking to some people on prior leagues I played in- they never watched games and only cared about boxscores and advanced stats. Thats how you start missing things like this. Amazes me how people love fantasy sports more than the actual game.

 

Way to steal my thunder @PuzzBeterson  hehehe

[PuzzBeterson 1,089]

I 'd your post!!

[lethotjames 520]

1 hour ago, Jake the snake said:

 

McGruder and Ellington averaged 24.5 and 23 mins per game from Jan 17th until the end of the season when they went 30-11 (from their 13-game win streak onwards), respectively (27 and 24.5 mpg during the 13 game win streak). 

 

Richardson played no part in the win streak. But averaged 34.5 mpg towards over the last 16 games when they went 9-7.

 

Again I'm not saying McGruder and Ellington are better than Richardson, but they are good players. They make their team better by being in the team. Just because someone doesn't put up good fantasy numbers doesn't mean they are a bad basketballer...a lot of people on this site seem to forget that reality is far more important than pure 9-cat statistics in actually getting minutes (I see you Gorgui Dieng). There are a lot of good defenders out there that don't get steals or blocks and there are a lot of bad defenders out there that do and get blown by all the time making bad gambles on D . Need to watch games too not just box-scores

 

lol, a lot of assumptions there.

 

josh rich is one of my favorite low profile guys in the league. i've seen him, and the other two play a lot.

 i'm not saying they're bad payers either (even though I don't think either is particularly good anyway).

 they are just definitely not better or more talented than josh rich.

 if playing them means a less than 28mpg role for a guy they just paid 40m to, i think it's silly. fantasy outlook or not

[lethotjames 520]

then again this a fantasy forum lol. some pretty pretentious stuff above. not saying any of you are wrong, of course there are guys that fit in and really help teams win without putting up pretty numbers. but you'd be hard pressed to tell me either of those 2 guys are more talented than j rich and that was ultimately what i was getting at

[miasma16 3,344]

1 minute ago, lethotjames said:

then again this a fantasy forum lol. some pretty pretentious stuff above. not saying any of you are wrong, of course there are guys that fit in and really help teams win without putting up pretty numbers. but you'd be hard pressed to tell me either of those 2 guys are more talented than j rich and that was ultimately what i was getting at

Richardson is a better real life player than both. They're not far off though. 

[lethotjames 520]

1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

Richardson is a better real life player than both. They're not far off though. 

 

i disagree, richardson is a couple years younger than mcgruder and has already shown a lot more. and ellington can shoot, that's about it.

Edited October 9, 2017 by lethotjames

[lethotjames 520]

i reallly dislike the whole "you don't watch games I do" s--- people like to say to feel superior to others lol

[miasma16 3,344]

2 minutes ago, lethotjames said:

i reallly dislike the whole "you don't watch games I do" s--- people like to say to feel superior to others lol

Most of the basketball forum really enjoy jerking each other off, you're just going to have to ignore it.

[PuzzBeterson 1,089]

6 minutes ago, lethotjames said:

i reallly dislike the whole "you don't watch games I do" s--- people like to say to feel superior to others lol

Who said that here? 

 

[PuzzBeterson 1,089]

24 minutes ago, lethotjames said:

then again this a fantasy forum lol. some pretty pretentious stuff above. not saying any of you are wrong, of course there are guys that fit in and really help teams win without putting up pretty numbers. but you'd be hard pressed to tell me either of those 2 guys are more talented than j rich and that was ultimately what i was getting at

It is a fantasy forum. But what a lot of fantasy fans who only go by numbers forget, is that per36 production does not always serve as a indication of actual skill and value of a player. If such per36 players (Brendan Wright for example, Anthony Randolph. Terrence Jones and Eddie Griffin are others), do not get their minutes handed to them on a plate, people start blaming coaches for their fantasy darlings' lack of production.

 

Now if you watch games, or at least catch up with informed fans, for example the more trustworthy sections of the fanbases of teams, you're in a better position to assess the reasons why certain players will get a chance to produce over others. Simple stats don't show this information. 

 

Thats not being pretentious, thats valuable insight, and maybe something to note in order to improve chances to win your league. 

 

Bottomline: a player who produces great per minute stats will not become a good fantasy player unless he's a good real life player as well. Being good in resl life is a must for a player in order to produce long-term value. And if you don't see the point there, feel free to overdraft Terrence Jones and Ricky Davis in your league.

Edited October 9, 2017 by PuzzBeterson

[Code of Hammurabi 4,371]

9 minutes ago, PuzzBeterson said:

It is a fantasy forum. But what a lot of fantasy fans who only go by numbers forget, is that per36 production does not always serve as a indication of actual skill and value of a player. If such per36 players (Brendan Wright for example, Anthony Randolph. Terrence Jones and Eddie Griffin are others), do not get their minutes handed to them on a plate, people start blaming coaches for their fantasy darlings' lack of production.

 

Now if you watch games, or at least catch up with informed fans, for example the more trustworthy sections of the fanbases of teams, you're in a better position to assess the reasons why certain players will get a chance to produce over others. Simple stats don't show this information. 

 

Thats not being pretentious, thats valuable insight, and maybe something to note in order to improve chances to win your league. 

 

Bottomline: a player who produces great per minute stats will not become a good fantasy player unless he's a good real life player as well. Being good in resl life is a must for a player in order to produce long-term value. And if you don't see the point there, feel free to overdraft Terrence Jones and Ricky Davis in your league.

Shout out for the slick Ricky Davis reference!