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Bryce Harper 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-05. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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19 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

san fran crossed my mind too

 

but how do you justify a 300 mil contract for someone who just hit 230????

How did the Marlins justify Stanton's 13-year 325m contract running through age 38?  Look at his previous two years before signing and it becomes even crazier.

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32 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

san fran crossed my mind too

 

but how do you justify a 300 mil contract for someone who just hit 230????

Because most baseball GMs/owners are looking past one year of batting average. 

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9 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

How did the Marlins justify Stanton's 13-year 325m contract running through age 38?  Look at his previous two years before signing and it becomes even crazier.

 

true but i wouldnt use the Marlins as a benchmark lol

 

4 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Because most baseball GMs/owners are looking past one year of batting average. 

true  but his AVG war over his career is like 3.7

 

and that includes a double digit year....i understand the upside but id have trouble give him a 10-12 year deal

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3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

san fran crossed my mind too

 

but how do you justify a 300 mil contract for someone who just hit 230????

Having a career .278 average over an 850 game sample size probably has something to do with it.

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27 minutes ago, KrunK said:

Having a career .278 average over an 850 game sample size probably has something to do with it.

hey i like the guy....but you cant deny he has major question marks.

 

not sure i want to give a guy like that 300-500 million

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22 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

san fran crossed my mind too

 

but how do you justify a 300 mil contract for someone who just hit 230????

Buy low?  If he hit .280 the price would be 400-500 million?  I am involved in the Harper debate most offseasons, he has had injury seasons, disappointing seasons, but that does not prevent him from being a 1st round ADP pick.  Why?  Age and talent.  I think those two things will rule the day when it comes to Free Agency, I think they will see star power, youth, talent and have the money to spend.  

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On 7/6/2018 at 2:04 PM, jfazz23 said:

not sure i want to give a guy like that 300-500 million

Good thing you'll never have to worry about that then isn't it!

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I must say it's amazing that Machado is balling while knowing he will be traded any minute and the better he plays, the better his landing spot will be IMO. Harper needs to relax and remember it's just a game at the end of the day.

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I know so many dislike this guy and just wait to pounce. I get that. But we’ve seen how great he can be, so simply saying “overrated” isn’t accurate. He had an amazing, MVP season at 22 years old. 

Other than injuries, which have put a damper on parts of his career to this point, I think the larger problem, and what we’re seeing, is no consistency in the staff.

Bryce is still just 25 years old. He’s already been through 2 years of Davey Johnson, 2 years of Matt Williams, 2 years of Dusty Baker, and now Dave Martinez. With that, he’s on his 3rd hitting coach in as many seasons. At such a young age, this amount of chaos isn’t good for a hitter. 

This season they hired Kevin Long as hitting coach. This is a guy who changes mechanics to work on launch angles. There’s no doubt in my mind this is what is leading to the struggles. 

This probably helps no one in redrafts, unless something suddenly clicks, but I think “OMG THIS GUY SUCKS” is extremely simple and doesn’t take any factors into account. I used to hope Bryce stayed in Washington, but it probably would be great for him to leave this horribly run franchise and get to a team with some consistency. 

 

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This is an overly optimistic opinion, but I think there's a chance the HR derby has the reverse effect on Bryce than what it traditionally does and sparks a second half surge (there's nowhere to go but up in terms of BA unless he descends into Dexter Fowler territory).  A few days away from game pressure, the opportunity to mash many HRs in front of his home crowd, etc.  He knows he's playing for a contract and I could see his second half being super productive.  Sometimes players just need some kind of catalyst.

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Bryce-

.214/.365/.833

57/23/54/6

 

Gallo-

.187/.296/.742

48/22/51/3

 

“Same season,” except Bryce is better in literally every single category, across the board.

 

I get that Harper hasn’t been great. But some of us like facts here. 

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1 minute ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Bryce-

.214/.365/.833

57/23/54/6

 

Gallo-

.187/.296/.742

48/22/51/3

 

“Same season,” except Bryce is better in literally every single category, across the board.

 

I get that Harper hasn’t been great. But some of us like facts here. 

 

Except Gallo isn't far off and Harper cost you a first round pick.  LOL.

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Bryce-

.214/.365/.833

57/23/54/6

 

Gallo-

.187/.296/.742

48/22/51/3

 

“Same season,” except Bryce is better in literally every single category, across the board.

 

I get that Harper hasn’t been great. But some of us like facts here. 

Come ON man. Just 30 points more of avg, only 70 more points of OBP, and 90 more points of OPS? And only twice as many steals? #26 overall ranked player vs #88??

 

ZOMG THATS THE EXACT SAME SEASON!!!

 

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