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Lucas Giolito 2018 Outlook


parrothead

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  • 1 month later...
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On 5/26/2018 at 10:41 AM, absknicks said:

Goes without saying, but they need to send him down. Getting his brains beaten in every 5th day isn't helping him develop.

 

And, as shown by 3 1st inning walks this afternoon, nothing has really changed in a month's time.

 

In this day and age, where TB has deployed "the opener" rather successfully, you're not pigeonholed into having a 5 man rotation and doing what everyone else is doing. Send him the hell down, improvise with your staff to fill in the gap of a missing SP, and tell him he's not coming back until his BB/9 is under 3. 

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It should have occurred to me sooner, but during his great run last season (and I'm assuming during this past spring) he was caught by Kevin Smith.  There was even some surprise when Smith didn't make the 25-man since he had the best rapport with the CHW stable of young arms.

 

Maybe there is some reason for optimism? 

His looks more confident with Smith to me. Dropping that curve a lot more than he had been. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

4QS's in his last 5 starts. no drastic changes in his peripherals.. but the kid seems to be settling in.. at least pitching like a major leaguer...

 

maybe put him on your watch list for the next few starts.

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Small increase in velo over the last month or so as well. 1.5-2 mph. If he could ever cut the walks down, he may be useful. He’ll probably figure it out once everyone, including the White Sox, have given up on him. Or he moves to the bullpen. 

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15 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

Small increase in velo over the last month or so as well. 1.5-2 mph. If he could ever cut the walks down, he may be useful. He’ll probably figure it out once everyone, including the White Sox, have given up on him. Or he moves to the bullpen. 

 

2 extra mph is pretty significant, but we've seen guys have no success with 100 mph heat. Until he can routinely get his secondary stuff over, it's hard to get too excited. 

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Recent success is an absolute mirage. The past month the walk rate is 13% K rate is 15.3% with a swinging strike rate of 6.4%. BABIP is .184 and LOB % is  85.4%. 

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11 hours ago, DidiFan said:

Recent success is an absolute mirage. The past month the walk rate is 13% K rate is 15.3% with a swinging strike rate of 6.4%. BABIP is .184 and LOB % is  85.4%. 

I’m about a year and half of quality results away from having any confidence, so I wasn’t getting my hopes up. When I look at his line and can’t figure out which line is walks and which is earned runs, there’s definitely issues. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
29 minutes ago, Guzman said:

Why is this guy in the majors?

 

Because they have no reason not to let him at this point, and nobody really any better to replace him with. He has made a lot of mechanical changes, and working through that stuff in an MLB season is not easy. Fantasy-wise you should just be starting hitters against him at this point.

The good news for him and potentially dynasty owners is he was hitting 95 with his four-seamer and seems have calmed down after a nightmare 2nd inning.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I didn't see the game, but he threw a ton of strikes and from the highlights it looks like he was getting whiffs with his change and was consistently in the mid-90s, topping out at 97(!). So that's good news.

 

But still. We have a large sample of awful. I'm gonna need him to pitch like this through the end of the year to get me interested for 2019. Maintain the velo. Keep throwing strikes. Get whiffs with the offspeed stuff. Otherwise, there are too many other options out there that are worth a longer look than Gio. 

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Just now, mi26 said:

worthy of an add? Plays Tigers and Royals

 

Absolutely. He is pitching very well lately. Kicking myself for trading him for a 2019 draft pick, but at one time Gio looked like the worst pitcher in the sport, but now I notice his velo is up, he is locating better. His stuff has NEVER been an issue, he just couldn't put it anywhere useful and his fastball was not scary. Now he's back up to 95 and the off speed stuff is zeroing in. At only 23-24 years old he has a chance to realize the enormous potential he had. NO, I don't project him as a Top of rotation starter anymore, but certainly has the look of a very nice 3rd starter. 

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Will be watching his start tonight carefully. Didn't have the stones to stream him vs BOS but could actually be a viable start next week in many H2H leagues 1st rd playoffs vs DET and that fringe lineup.

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Whatever he was earlier in the season, he isn't that anymore. He isn't just OK or decent now, the stuff is looking electric, mid 90s heater, great movement on his 2seamer, and a devastating change up. He's ending this season on a good note, with Kopech and Rodon not a bad 1-2-3, potentially great.

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