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Greg Bird 2018 Outlook


jfazz23

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On 2/23/2018 at 6:17 PM, lavaman said:

"Chiseled"....and "Baseball Ready" are two different things. For the record, I'm high on this guy as well, but let's see him stay healthy first.

 

Yeah, chiseled isn't always the best thing for baseball. Strong, yes. But strength comes in a variety of body shapes. 

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So, Bird is generally being drafted in the 140-150 range and I think that's a huge steal.

 

Depth Charts has him hitting .246/31/92/79/1 in 140 games.

 

For a comparison, Depth Charts has Miguel Sano hitting .250/34/98/84/1 in 142 games.

 

Basically the same projection - the difference being that while Sano is being drafted ~65 picks in front of Bird. That's a huge difference. (Granted, Sano is a 3B)

 

But the thing is... the projection system doesn't even take into account the fact that Bird played through an injury that hindered his performance nearly all of last year. But we saw the real Greg Bird late last season and in the postseason.

 

I think he has a very good chance of hitting 3rd or 4th in the lineup with either of these orders.

 

Gardner

Judge

Bird

Stanton

Sanchez

Didi

 

OR

 

Gardner

Judge

Stanton

Bird

Sanchez

Didi

 

I suppose there's some chance Didi could usurp Bird's spot as the lefty in the heart of the order, but I think with his low OBP% Didi ultimately ranks better at the 6th spot in the lineup. And I don't think Boone is going to want to bat Judge/Stanton/Sanchez back-to-back-to-back considering they're all righties.

 

All Greg Bird needs is to have a healthy season. 

 

Let's fantasize and say Bird stays healthy and plays close to 150 games.

 

Keeping in mind that his skills are much better than what he showed in 2017 due to injury, I think with health it's reasonable to project him for:

 

.260, 35-40 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R

 

Those numbers may not be so far off from Aaron Judge's, and you're getting it at a fraction of the price.

 

I think he's going to be a huge steal this year.

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Bird is the Aaron Nola of 1B this year.  Lot's to like...great upside...SHOULD be solid FB player but is being hyped above the value most would feel comfortable taking him at.  Unless you're keeping him, most of the smart ones will watch him get grabbed above what most of us perceive as his true value.  Like KidTwentyTwo said...I'll just watch it happen then will tip my cap if he actually returns the value he's drafted/paid at.  I rarely take these kinds of chances.

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18 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

I'm going to let you love birds have him and if he hits 30 homers I'll just tip my cap.  

 

I'm not the biggest Greg Bird fan but I do like him at his current ADP. I'll take him over some guys who are being drafted ahead of him (Olson, Zimmerman, Smoak).

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Average overall ranking for 1Bs according to FantasyPros:

 

Justin Smoak - 103

Matt Olson - 109

Carlos Santana - 119

Joey Gallo - 120

Matt Carpenter - 123

Ryan Zimmerman - 126

Josh Bell - 135

Greg Bird - 143

Justin Bour - 158

Chris Davis - 166

 

I think Bird is providing by far the best value of anyone in this group (although Santana at 119 isn't too shabby). He has the highest upside of anyone - especially considering that he's hitting somewhere in between Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez.

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2 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

Average overall ranking for 1Bs according to FantasyPros:

 

Justin Smoak - 103

Matt Olson - 109

Carlos Santana - 119

Joey Gallo - 120

Matt Carpenter - 123

Ryan Zimmerman - 126

Josh Bell - 135

Greg Bird - 143

Justin Bour - 158

Chris Davis - 166

 

I think Bird is providing by far the best value of anyone in this group (although Santana at 119 isn't too shabby), with the highest upside, and the only real downside is his injury history.

 

Best value is the guy getting drafted at 166 who has done it before being taken after several guys who have yet to do it.

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14 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

 

Best value is the guy getting drafted at 166 who has done it before being taken after several guys who have yet to do it.

 

Meh, I disagree.

 

Chris Davis' 4-year averages right now are: .225/34/84/82, and he has trended down the last couple of years. Still, I'll say he's a reasonable bet to produce around what he has averaged the last 4 seasons.

 

He still has value, but that batting average is pretty killer.

 

If Bird plays a full season, I think he's going to outproduce Davis in run production, put up something similar in the homer department, and put up a significantly better batting average (I think he'll hit better than .250).

 

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5 minutes ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

 

Meh, I disagree.

 

Chris Davis' 4-year averages right now are: .225/34/84/82, and he has trended down the last couple of years. Still, I'll say he's a reasonable bet to produce around what he has averaged the last 4 seasons.

 

He still has value, but that batting average is pretty killer.

 

If Bird plays a full season, I think he's going to outproduce Davis in run production, put up something similar in the homer department, and put up a significantly better batting average (I think he'll hit better than .250).

 

 

I think Bird will outproduce Davis as well but when it comes to pure value, Davis at 166 is good value when you look at some of the other guys on that list. Yes he won't hit for AVG but neither will Gallo. When it comes to HR/RBI/Runs, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Davis outproduces most of the guys on that list. Baltimore still has a good lineup and Davis isn't ancient'. He's 32.

 

Let me put it this way: I don't see much difference between Matt Olson and Chris Davis yet one is being taken almost 60 picks later.

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10 hours ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

Average overall ranking for 1Bs according to FantasyPros:

 

Justin Smoak - 103

Matt Olson - 109

Carlos Santana - 119

Joey Gallo - 120

Matt Carpenter - 123

Ryan Zimmerman - 126

Josh Bell - 135

Greg Bird - 143

Justin Bour - 158

Chris Davis - 166

 

I think Bird is providing by far the best value of anyone in this group (although Santana at 119 isn't too shabby). He has the highest upside of anyone - especially considering that he's hitting somewhere in between Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez.

Biggest ceiling on this list? Joey Gallo.

Strong hunch he will do great things this year.

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29 minutes ago, lavaman said:

Biggest ceiling on this list? Joey Gallo.

Strong hunch he will do great things this year.

 

That's like being the skinniest kid at fat camp. Not a ton of high ceilings on that list. A few have seen their highest ceilings come and go, lol. 

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On 2/28/2018 at 10:27 AM, Damn Yankee said:

Bird is the Aaron Nola of 1B this year.  Lot's to like...great upside...SHOULD be solid FB player but is being hyped above the value most would feel comfortable taking him at.  Unless you're keeping him, most of the smart ones will watch him get grabbed above what most of us perceive as his true value.  Like KidTwentyTwo said...I'll just watch it happen then will tip my cap if he actually returns the value he's drafted/paid at.  I rarely take these kinds of chances.

I just got him around 152

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On 2/28/2018 at 9:56 PM, Flyman75 said:

 

That's like being the skinniest kid at fat camp. Not a ton of high ceilings on that list. A few have seen their highest ceilings come and go, lol. 

 

Guess I'm the only one who loves Smoak, heh. 


I love Birds upside, but I wouldn't feel good, at all, about drafting him as my starting 1B. Now, pair Bird with just about any other guy on that list, and I'm game again. As the first guy off that list? Nah. 

 

On 2/28/2018 at 10:49 AM, ReyesMurphyWright said:

Average overall ranking for 1Bs according to FantasyPros:

 

Justin Smoak - 103

Matt Olson - 109

Carlos Santana - 119

Joey Gallo - 120

Matt Carpenter - 123

Ryan Zimmerman - 126

Josh Bell - 135

Greg Bird - 143

Justin Bour - 158

Chris Davis - 166

 

I think Bird is providing by far the best value of anyone in this group (although Santana at 119 isn't too shabby). He has the highest upside of anyone - especially considering that he's hitting somewhere in between Stanton, Judge, and Sanchez.

 

I don't think Smoak is the best value, but he's the one I'd want. Zimmerman @ 126th is pretty much a safer Bird @ 143. Justin Bour will never win a hype contest (unless we're talking HR derby), but I think he's a better 1B to own than Bird, and going later. 

I really, really, really like Bird, but I only will feel good owning him if I can get him and 1 of Santana/Zimmerman/Smoak/Bour. Really though, any guy in that last can provide good ROI. Chris Davis can go eat a fattie, he'd go undrafted as far as I'm concerned. 

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23 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Guess I'm the only one who loves Smoak, heh. 


I love Birds upside, but I wouldn't feel good, at all, about drafting him as my starting 1B. Now, pair Bird with just about any other guy on that list, and I'm game again. As the first guy off that list? Nah. 

 

I don't think Smoak is the best value, but he's the one I'd want. Zimmerman @ 126th is pretty much a safer Bird @ 143. Justin Bour will never win a hype contest (unless we're talking HR derby), but I think he's a better 1B to own than Bird, and going later. 

I really, really, really like Bird, but I only will feel good owning him if I can get him and 1 of Santana/Zimmerman/Smoak/Bour. Really though, any guy in that last can provide good ROI. Chris Davis can go eat a fattie, he'd go undrafted as far as I'm concerned. 

 

I can't get behind Bour in that pitiful lineup. You may get the 25 HR with Bour but I don't think it comes with much else.  The quality of bats around Bird plus the park offers an upside that isn't there with Bour IMO.

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2 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

I can't get behind Bour in that pitiful lineup. You may get the 25 HR with Bour but I don't think it comes with much else.  The quality of bats around Bird plus the park offers an upside that isn't there with Bour IMO.

 

I definitely agree, but he's going to around Castro, Prado, Realmuto. I mean, yeah, don't phone home about how great it is, but the counting #'s could be stomachable. However, I do think he's gonna be a better play in the BA cat, with HR being a near push. Niether are gonna run. 

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54 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

Bird is a having a terrible spring so far, maybe it will be the opposite of last year where he had alights out spring brutal season

I know ST doesn’t matter a whole lot, but I’d MUCH rather my players be raking than tanking. 

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2 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

having a horrible spring. striking out 1/3 of the time.

 

anyone else worried?

 

 

I'm glad I haven't gotten him in any leagues so far. I've only seen a few AB's, but it looks about as good as hot garbage smells.

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