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Rod Smith 2017 Season Outlook


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13 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

I quoted myself like the rest of you did to explain the point. 

 

When referring to “people generally” I meant the millions of people who put their money where their mouth is and bet BILLIONS of dollars on the NFL every year. Not a few random guys who post on RW, Reddit, or w/e. Those people aren’t expecting a blowout. 

 

After all that betting, the bookies had Dallas +4, which generally means about half the money is on that bet and about half is on Eagles -4

 

 The line actually opened at 3 and may go up to 5 or 5.5 (or it may go right back down to 3). But obviously nowhere near the blowout RW seems to be expecting where it’d be this insane upset if the Cowboys win. 

The cowboys always get bet heavy which factors into the line. If this were the same team wearing the arizona cardinals jersey they would be +6 or +7 imo

 

Tyron smith plays and i would have a totally different take on this game. Maybe the new lt balls out and its a close game, dak has timeto exploit eagles cbs. Maybe

Edited by Anteater99
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2 minutes ago, Anteater99 said:

The cowboys always get bet heavy which factors into the line. If this were the same team wearing the arizona cardinals jersey they would be +6 or +7 imo

 

Tyron smith plays and i would have a totally different take on this game. Maybe the new lt balls out and its a close game, dak has timeto exploit eagles cbs. Maybe

 

Is that a friendly pro tip? I mean, you've capitalized on this inside info and made millions betting against Dallas in Vegas? Really, Dallas fans don't have any more money to lose on dumb bets than fans of other teams do.

 

I'm not saying the line is fool proof. But I am saying you'd be crazy to put more trust in RW when looking for a possible gamescript. 

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3 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

 

Is that a friendly pro tip? I mean, you've capitalized on this inside info and made millions betting against Dallas in Vegas? Really, Dallas fans don't have any more money to lose on dumb bets than fans of other teams do.

 

I'm not saying the line is fool proof. But I am saying you'd be crazy to put more trust in RW when looking for a possible gamescript. 

Spare me the attitude chief. Dallas probably has more fans than any other nfl teams. Them or the giants, it's debatable. You yourself started the discussion about betting and "millions of bettors" so you set the goalpost at john q public not sharp bettors. John q public is more likely to be a cowboys fan. John q public is more likely to be a casual fan, casual fans like to bet on their fav team, it makes watching the game more fun. The cowboys also have REPUTATION both long term as one of the elite teams, also short term as a good team in recent years. Huge fanbase + reputation = more bets. Feel free to disagree with this, my point.

 

Everything else youre talking about is noise. "oh you must be some hot shot bettor in vegas haha im so snarky and clever" spare me your attitude if you disagree with me about something i say use merits

 

"The rw forums are not a more credible source than vegas lines" one problem with this: no one said this. You said it. This is an entry level logical fallacy known as a straw man. When the other side of a debate has a more solid argument, you create a false narrative that you attribute to the other side in order to discredit them. Known to the layman as putting words in someones mouth. 

 

Most of what we are arguing here is hypothetical like what a line would be if it were a team other than the cowboys. We could go on forever on that because no one knows, so i will pass on discussing it further. If you disagree that the number of cowboys bettors influences pointspreads, in the most heavily wagered sport in america, in the sport that more casual fans bet on, by far, than any other, than we will have to agree to disagree. I rest my case.

 

In summary, im starting rod over mixon go 'boys

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

That is always the pertinent question.

 

Collins and Perine.  You didn't think I was benching a legit starter in favor of Smith, did you??

 

 

 

No, I imagined your choices were flex types. 

 

Interesting that you're taking Smith over guaranteed volume in Perine (who I'm also considering for my RB2, incidentally). 

Edited by Queequeg
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2 minutes ago, Queequeg said:

 

 

No, I imagined your choices were flex types. 

 

Interesting that you're taking Smith over guaranteed volume in Perine (who I'm also considering for my RB2, incidentally). 

Guaranteed volume?  Nothing is guaranteed with a 3rd string rb.

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14 minutes ago, Queequeg said:

 

I don't see a scenario where Perine gets less than 10-15 touches. 

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, Jwook said:

Kelley rarely broke double digit touches.

Yeah, it can happen pretty easily.   Probably will actually.  Perine isnt any good.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jwook said:

Kelley rarely broke double digit touches.

 

Kelley’s been hurt most of the year and shared touches with Perine in a few games. Last season he cleared 10 touches in every game after he became the starter. 

 

I suppose it’s possible Samaje gets fewer than10  touches, but I don’t see how anyone could reasonably project that outcome.

 

With Smith, the volume is far less clear. He could feast in the passing game or get phased out because Morris is hot. I believe the former is more likely, but I’m not willing to gamble on the latter. 

 

Edited by Queequeg
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On 11/17/2017 at 3:28 PM, Queequeg said:

Interesting that you're taking Smith over guaranteed volume in Perine (who I'm also considering for my RB2, incidentally). 

 

In PPR, I like Smith's prospects more than Perine. 

 

Thompson always seems to eclipse anyone else in Washington's backfield.  Maybe that changes now that Perine has the gig all to himself.  I'm not ready to count on that though.

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Still really like Smith as a hold. He's riding my bench though, as I have Duke Johnson and Rex Burkhead in front of him competing for my RB2 spot. 6-7 PPR should be Smith's floor, while he doesn't have a particularly high ceiling as long as Alf dominates early downs.

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On 11/17/2017 at 2:01 PM, Fiveohnine said:

 

Is that a friendly pro tip? I mean, you've capitalized on this inside info and made millions betting against Dallas in Vegas? Really, Dallas fans don't have any more money to lose on dumb bets than fans of other teams do.

 

I'm not saying the line is fool proof. But I am saying you'd be crazy to put more trust in RW when looking for a possible gamescript. 

That isn't how lines work though, lines are designed to mitigate the books potential for loss. The line doesn't actually reflect how the original odds maker views the contest. Just look at how the line ended on McGregor/Mayweather. It reflects betting trends.

Edited by hoppychokes
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I'm done chasing this backup Dallas backfield. It's embarrassing to name the players I've ignored the last several weeks as I've rotated Smith and McFadden through my team repeatedly.

If there ever was a testament for player vs. scheme, this is it for the players' side. 

 

All that BS about the mighty Dallas O-line (yes, I know Smith was out).  Either Elliot is a real stud, or the Dallas coaches are so convinced he is that they are too afraid to rely on their backup RBs.

Edited by esprits4s
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25 minutes ago, esprits4s said:

I'm done chasing this backup Dallas backfield. It's embarrassing to name the players I've ignored the last several weeks as I've rotated Smith and McFadden through my team repeatedly.

If there ever was a testament for player vs. scheme, this is it for the players' side. 

 

All that BS about the mighty Dallas O-line (yes, I know Smith was out).  Either Elliot is a real stud, or the Dallas coaches are so convinced he is that they are too afraid to rely on their backup RBs.

 

Morris ran fine and there were plenty of holes ^_^

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31 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

That isn't how lines work though, lines are designed to mitigate the books potential for loss. The line doesn't actually reflect how the original odds maker views the contest. Just look at how the line ended on McGregor/Mayweather. It reflects betting trends.

 

I never said it was “how they view the contest”, so it’s kinda dumb to suggest that I did or that my point had anything to do with such a notion. 

 

The line reflects a point where the bookies believe half the money will fall on each side. 

 

So so while it’s true the line doesn’t reflect what the bookies think will happen, it most certainly DOES reflect how they think the betting money will come in, which is exactly what I said in an earlier post. 

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