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Luck vs. Skill in Fantasy Baseball


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17 minutes ago, posty said:

 

So you have nothing to disprove me...

Look, we can argue all you want (and others) it isn't going to change anyone's mind...

You think that there is skill, I say it is all luck...  Each of us thinks the other is wrong...  That is the great thing about opinions...

But either way, and this is fact, once I accepted that fantasy games were 100% luck, I enjoyed them much more than I did when I thought that there was some skill involved...

So go ahead and carry on to help you get through the day and fantasy seasons and I will do the same...

 

I thought you were trolling at first.  If you think fantasy baseball is 100% luck, I'm not sure why you'd eve be checking a message board. I mean, what's the point? It's 100% luck.

 

Fantasy baseball is pretty objectively not 100% luck. I don't think I've been in the bottom half of a standings once in the last 5-10 years. If it were100% lucky, I'd be  there 50% of the time. That's a sample size of probaby 20-30 completed leagues. Pretty easy to disprove.  

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If I win it is skill. If anyone else in the league wins it is pure luck. 

So reading a few commonly available newspapers and buying a couple of magazines with fantasy tips in them way back in the day involves skill and the internet doesn't?  The access to data today is

I thought you were trolling at first.  If you think fantasy baseball is 100% luck, I'm not sure why you'd eve be checking a message board. I mean, what's the point? It's 100% luck.   Fantasy

15 minutes ago, posty said:

 

So you have nothing to disprove me...

Look, we can argue all you want (and others) it isn't going to change anyone's mind...

You think that there is skill, I say it is all luck...  Each of us thinks the other is wrong...  That is the great thing about opinions...

But either way, and this is fact, once I accepted that fantasy games were 100% luck, I enjoyed them much more than I did when I thought that there was some skill involved...

So go ahead and carry on to help you get through the day and fantasy seasons and I will do the same...

Of course there’s no way to disprove anything here. Which is what makes the discussion interesting. You put forth your opinion, and I share mine. That’s how this works. I don’t know why you’d think you could throw out 100% luck (I’m not sure one person would agree with that), and not expect someone to challenge that. 
I’m glad you enjoy fantasy sports more. What I’ve found in my experience, in fantasy and in life, is that those who don’t succeed always blame it on outside forces, such as luck. And those who do well, understand the work involved. 

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I thought you were trolling at first.  If you think fantasy baseball is 100% luck, I'm not sure why you'd eve be checking a message board. I mean, what's the point? It's 100% luck.

 

 

I used to come here for the lineups and post them here...  When I played in the past, I rarely read about the players, maybe here and there...

But as I have said, doing research is not a skill...

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1 minute ago, posty said:

But as I have said, doing research is not a skill...

I'm curious what you mean by this, because research skills are such a thing. It takes intelligence and ability to look through the numbers, analyze graphs, ask the right questions, and know where to look/find the information.

 

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2 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Of course there’s no way to disprove anything here. Which is what makes the discussion interesting. You put forth your opinion, and I share mine. That’s how this works. I don’t know why you’d think you could throw out 100% luck (I’m not sure one person would agree with that), and not expect someone to challenge that. 
I’m glad you enjoy fantasy sports more. What I’ve found in my experience, in fantasy and in life, is that those who don’t succeed always blame it on outside forces, such as luck. And those who do well, understand the work involved. 

 

I have won many many fantasy football leagues and baseball (though not as many) and I still think it is all luck...

As for the 100% luck factor, I know others that think the same way about it...  We know we are in the minority and we know that we can't do anything about it, so we just continue on knowing what we know...

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2 minutes ago, posty said:

 

I used to come here for the lineups and post them here...  When I played in the past, I rarely read about the players, maybe here and there...

But as I have said, doing research is not a skill...

Skill- the ability to do something well; expertise.

 

Not everyone has the same ability to research, analyze, etc. Research is 100%, without a doubt, skill.

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Just now, CrypTviLL said:

I'm curious what you mean by this, because research skills are such a thing. It takes intelligence and ability to look through the numbers, analyze graphs, ask the right questions, and know where to look/find the information.

 

 

So now intelligence is a skill?

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Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

Skill- the ability to do something well; expertise.

 

Not everyone has the same ability to research, analyze, etc. Research is 100%, without a doubt, skill.

 

Bull...

Pre-internet, yes...  Today, no...  Everyone has the same access to the data...

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Just now, posty said:

 

So now intelligence is a skill?

You didn't answer the question at all but highlighted wording in my Q.

 

It's quite clear that research is an actual skill. You may be confused on it, and yes -- I would agree that people who are roaming through player threads on RW are not doing anything skillfully, but many others do actual research on the players and that does indeed take skill. 

 

Research skills are our ability to find an answer to a question or a solution to a problem. Research skills include the ability to gather information about your topic, review that information and analyze and interpret the information in a manner that brings us to a solution.

 

 

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1 minute ago, CrypTviLL said:

It's quite clear that research is an actual skill. You may be confused on it, and yes -- I would agree that people who are roaming through player threads on RW are not doing anything skillfully, but many others do actual research on the players and that does indeed take skill. 

 

 

 

Are you taking the data yourself or data that others provided?

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10 minutes ago, posty said:

 

Bull...

Pre-internet, yes...  Today, no...  Everyone has the same access to the data...

Ok I guess I kind of see where you’re coming. I still think there’s some skill involved in understanding what you’re looking at, but I suppose you can do enough if you want to figure it out, if you want.

So I think the sticking point here is that when you say “100% luck,” that insinuates it doesn’t matter how much effort you put in. And we should all agree that’s not luck.

But maybe that effort isn’t a skill. So I get that point. Still don’t see it as 100% luck though. But willing to change it to time/effort being rewarded.

Outworking others isn’t luck.

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4 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Ok I guess I kind of see where you’re coming. I still think there’s some skill involved in understanding what you’re looking at, but I suppose you can do enough if you want to figure it out, if you want.

So I think the sticking point here is that when you say “100% luck,” that insinuates it doesn’t matter how much effort you put in. And we should all agree that’s not luck.

But maybe that effort isn’t a skill. So I get that point. Still don’t see it as 100% luck though. But willing to change it to time/effort being rewarded.

 

When I played a lot in the past, I put a lot of effort into it...  Looking at last 7-days, 14-days, where hitting in the lineup, etc...  I used that to make an educated guess to select players and who to start/sit...  I guess most call this skill, I don't because it is available for all to use...  I didn't gather the data, I didn't take all of the numbers to get all of the new baseball statistics abbreviations are available, that was done by someone else, so no skill on my part...

Then when the players performed, I had absolutely no skill in that, unless I was pitching and throwing grapefruits up there...  I depended on the skill of all the players involved...  That is all luck, no skill there...

That is why I think it is 100% skill because I don't acquire any of the numbers used to get the data I look at...  I guess you can maybe go with when you watch the player, but then it goes back to that being the skill of all the players involved, not the fantasy owner personally...

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4 minutes ago, posty said:

 

When I played a lot in the past, I put a lot of effort into it...  Looking at last 7-days, 14-days, where hitting in the lineup, etc...  I used that to make an educated guess to select players and who to start/sit...  I guess most call this skill, I don't because it is available for all to use...  I didn't gather the data, I didn't take all of the numbers to get all of the new baseball statistics abbreviations are available, that was done by someone else, so no skill on my part...

Then when the players performed, I had absolutely no skill in that, unless I was pitching and throwing grapefruits up there...  I depended on the skill of all the players involved...  That is all luck, no skill there...

That is why I think it is 100% skill because I don't acquire any of the numbers used to get the data I look at...  I guess you can maybe go with when you watch the player, but then it goes back to that being the skill of all the players involved, not the fantasy owner personally...

And many don’t do that, and constantly fall behind in my league because they’re not researching pickups each week, they’re not looking at starting hitters with horrible splits v. LHP, etc.

And that’s not luck. Me and you outworking and out-researching them isn’t luck. 

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16 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

And many don’t do that, and constantly fall behind in my league because they’re not researching pickups each week, they’re not looking at starting hitters with horrible splits v. LHP, etc.

And that’s not luck. Me and you outworking and out-researching them isn’t luck. 

 

I see your point...  I just never really in my life equated paying attention more to numbers and stuff as a skill because as someone that likes math, I always liked looking at numbers and playing around with them...

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46 minutes ago, posty said:

 

When I played a lot in the past, I put a lot of effort into it...  Looking at last 7-days, 14-days, where hitting in the lineup, etc...  I used that to make an educated guess to select players and who to start/sit...  I guess most call this skill, I don't because it is available for all to use...  I didn't gather the data, I didn't take all of the numbers to get all of the new baseball statistics abbreviations are available, that was done by someone else, so no skill on my part...

Then when the players performed, I had absolutely no skill in that, unless I was pitching and throwing grapefruits up there...  I depended on the skill of all the players involved...  That is all luck, no skill there...

That is why I think it is 100% skill because I don't acquire any of the numbers used to get the data I look at...  I guess you can maybe go with when you watch the player, but then it goes back to that being the skill of all the players involved, not the fantasy owner personally...

 

The skill is not in collecting the data. The skill comes in knowing what to do with the data you've accumulated in a way that compiles an optimal lineup day-after-day or week-after-week. There is definitely a lot of luck involved, but there is definitely skill involved, too...imho :). It's one thing to collect data...it's something else entirely to know how to implement it once collected. Some people are better at it than others, and that, to me, identifies skill. To say it was all luck would suggest that every fantasy baseball owner is equal when it comes to implementing that data, and I just don't believe that to be the case. 

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1 hour ago, posty said:

Bull...

Pre-internet, yes...  Today, no...  Everyone has the same access to the data...

So reading a few commonly available newspapers and buying a couple of magazines with fantasy tips in them way back in the day involves skill and the internet doesn't? 

The access to data today is far more complicated because there are dozen and dozens and dozens of baseball sites all giving you stats and opinions all mixed together and few of them ever agreeing with each other.  Add in sabermetrics and HOW to translate that into real baseball stats and it is far far more complicated today then ever before.  So it requires far more skill than in the past.

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17 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

So reading a few commonly available newspapers and buying a couple of magazines with fantasy tips in them way back in the day involves skill and the internet doesn't? 

The access to data today is far more complicated because there are dozen and dozens and dozens of baseball sites all giving you stats and opinions all mixed together and few of them ever agreeing with each other.  Add in sabermetrics and HOW to translate that into real baseball stats and it is far far more complicated today then ever before.  So it requires far more skill than in the past.

 

Modern fantasy analysis from all major credible websites will factor in sabermetrics to making their recommendation lists.  

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7 hours ago, posty said:

 

Bull...

Pre-internet, yes...  Today, no...  Everyone has the same access to the data...

You can interperate a set of data in many ways. Today's skill is not so much the gathering of information. It's making informed decisions on them. Separating noise from significance and what each data set actually correlates towards. Combined with intuitive knowledge.

 

Causation/Correlation is a major trap people still fall into.

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I've always thought the skill fell more in being able to come up with a sound strategy, execute it, and deviate from it when necessary. Most everybody's sniffing around the same players; the skill is in adapting to your league's tendencies and exploiting them and changing your tactics as other managers adjust. This is why I enjoy the long-term leagues; there's an element of cat-and-mouse, where leaguemates adapt to and try to exploit each other.

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Part of the skill aspect to me is not letting emotions cloud your judgment.

 

There will be times when the data tells you that adding or trading a player makes sense but you talk yourself out of it due to faulty reasoning

 

Another part is sales and persuasion. If you know one manager isn’t doing their HW and you can convince them that Mondesi is worth a 2nd rd player then you deserve that benefit over someone who can’t talk their way into that auspice.

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37 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I still want to hear the rationale for people not drafting Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor and Arenado.

What are you getting at here? Is this your evidence for “luck”?

People didnt predict the drop offs, particularly in a short season. But good, successful owners draft well, identify free agents well, and make shrewd, “buy low” trades that can help alleviate some of the pain of a bust first round pick.

One single bust or injury can be bad luck. That doesn’t mean all of the results are based on luck.

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Luck vs. Skill in Fantasy Baseball

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