Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Luck vs. Skill in Fantasy Baseball


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 119
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

If I win it is skill. If anyone else in the league wins it is pure luck. 

So reading a few commonly available newspapers and buying a couple of magazines with fantasy tips in them way back in the day involves skill and the internet doesn't?  The access to data today is

I thought you were trolling at first.  If you think fantasy baseball is 100% luck, I'm not sure why you'd eve be checking a message board. I mean, what's the point? It's 100% luck.   Fantasy

5 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I still want to hear the rationale for people not drafting Yelich, Bellinger, Lindor and Arenado.

When a good player has a bad season the fantasy owner has to use his/her skills to compensate.  If they drafted their bench well for example they can withstand a poor year from a good player better than the owner who doesn't.  Again, it comes down to skill including reacting to and compensating for these things as well as injuries etc.  In other words you basically proved the point that skill is definitely has to be used big time in fantasy baseball.  Thanks for that.

  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

When a good player has a bad season the fantasy owner has to use his/her skills to compensate.  If they drafted their bench well for example they can withstand a poor year from a good player better than the owner who doesn't.  Again, it comes down to skill including reacting to and compensating for these things as well as injuries etc.  In other words you basically proved the point that skill is definitely has to be used big time in fantasy baseball.  Thanks for that.


you’re trying to simplify a complex issue.  If Yelich is off to a slow start, you going to drop him for Teoscar Hernandez?  There’s no stopping the guy who drafted Betts to pick up Teoscar to replace one of their struggling players. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

you’re trying to simplify a complex issue.  If Yelich is off to a slow start, you going to drop him for Teoscar Hernandez?  There’s no stopping the guy who drafted Betts to pick up Teoscar to replace one of their struggling players. 

You are the one simplifying actually.  You should have drafted a deep and flexible bench from the get go.  If you play in some league that doesn't allow a decent size active roster for this then that is a failure on your part too.  You should have "researched" the league's parameters better before you joined and not got stuck in a near benchless league. 

And yes there are players that come up each year that have major breakout years yet were under everyone's radar that can help make up for a poor performance or injury for a player.  Your duty as an owner is to "research" and monitor the free agent pool in your league each and every day.  That is how you find players like deGrom or "research" that this guy JD has changed his swing and that is why he is suddenly better in Detroit than in Houston the year before.  And who drops a good player who gets injured?  That is what the IL slots are for.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

If you’re playing in a league that’s competitive, than you know that ‘everybody’ is trying to find that next big breakout star.  For every Trout that comes up and dominates there’s a Moncada or a Vladdy Jr and their development takes time.

My opinion is not that there is no skill involved in today’s fantasy (I have several fantasy championships that will attest to that) but that there is a declining level of skill factor.  

when you look at the current top 24 (1st 2 rounds of a standard Yahoo 12 team league) right now ( granted it’s a much smaller sample size this year) you can see there’s only about 10 players on that list who made top 24 last year. I’m pretty sure this trend is increasing. I don’t recall this type of volatility 5 years ago.  
 

if I bought Trout and Betts and JRam and you bought Lindor and Yelich, Im probably going to beat you in that league.  Again, there’s nothing to prevent ME from picking up a Teoscar on the waiver wire just because the rest of my team is strong.
 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Well everybody may be looking for the next big star but that is where you have to dig deeper and be quicker.  Especially in leagues bigger than 12. 

And, of course, leagues that allow prospects because prospect research takes longer than any other thing in fantasy baseball it seems.  And prospects are more arcane too.  Any person just depending on early stats misses that they are basically more boys than men in most cases and are still growing.  Some still physically filling out.  Many growing emotionally as in become mature.  And all growing in knowledge of and training and approaches to their craft and skills sets.

So with prospects I'd say it is maybe a third analytical, a third what scouts and coaches and others see in them as real people that are in the process of growth and change and a third luck.  Time after time I see other owners just looking into the first third of the analytics only then they wonder why a prospect grows or fails failing to see them as a work in progress. 

And yes luck here because some organizations have crappy farm system personnel almost ruining a player's natural talents and not enhancing them and in others a player is blocked because of good players above him etc.  Also some guys can't get beyond a certain level ever.  Prospect hunting and monitoring is one of the most fun aspects and research time sinks of fantasy baseball because of all of this.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
Link to post
Share on other sites

In weekly leagues a 10% skill advantage gets you 55/45 advantage, basically a coinflip.

In roto leagues your 10% advantage compounds every day.

In conclusion, use your late round picks to draft high reward players on good teams and max out your 401k.

Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Ultraa said:

In weekly leagues a 10% skill advantage gets you 55/45 advantage, basically a coinflip.

In roto leagues your 10% advantage compounds every day.

In conclusion, use your late round picks to draft high reward players on good teams and max out your 401k.

Numbers made up? Or provide a link that shows a study proving that those are true.

 

All the figures on luck or skill is just opinions and a lot that are based on league results are just small sample size in this thread.

 

I have belonged to one league for 6 years and finished 2nd every year. Luck? Another manager has more skill? The funny part is in those 6 years there never has been a repeat champion

Link to post
Share on other sites

I actually agree more on the “luck” side, though I wouldn’t say it’s 100%.   Not just with drafting the right players but also with injuries.  there’s some skill in drafting a balanced team, but I think the main “skill” part of the game is more /effort/- spending the time to find good players on the waiver wire.  You could describe that as skill but I don’t really think it’s anything that someone that’s equally invested could not do. 
 

 

I also agree with what some others have said that there’s more skill involved getting to a higher spot- say, making the playoffs- than winning the whole thing.

 

 

I disagree with the fact that a bench less league is a “bad” league.  I play in 3 leagues right now and all of them are salary cap dynasty leagues with very little WW maneuvering.  One of them is 30 teams and it’s almost impossible to find reinforcements.  Now THOSE leagues have some legitimate skill- not necessarily the production of your players over a year, but the strategy involved to create a competitive team year over year within the guidelines of the salary cap.  (Like a real MLB GM)

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Low and Away said:

Numbers made up? Or provide a link that shows a study proving that those are true.

 

All the figures on luck or skill is just opinions and a lot that are based on league results are just small sample size in this thread.

 

I have belonged to one league for 6 years and finished 2nd every year. Luck? Another manager has more skill? The funny part is in those 6 years there never has been a repeat champion

You shouldn't need a link to know that 55% - 45% is a 10% advantage or to know what compound interest is. But if you do need one I'd say you getting second every year is luck.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This is in the league legal restrictions and rules of Fantrax $ leagues 

 

This contest is a game of skill. The winners are determined by the participants who best exercise their skill, knowledge of the sport, and ability to make timely decisions to effectively manage their team.

 

.

Edited by kidtwentytwo
.
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • tonycpsu changed the title to Luck vs. Skill in Fantasy Baseball

Luck comes into play with injuries. Rarely are you going to win a competitive league if you have bad luck with injuries to key players.

Skill comes in having the ability to draft well, knowing who you can wait on and who you cannot. Also comes in making in-season transactions and not making shortsighted moves that hurt your team for the season.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Skill comes in having the ability to draft well, knowing who you can wait on and who you cannot.

 

No that is luck...  You got lucky that someone you wanted to take was not taken before you...

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Luck comes into play with injuries. Rarely are you going to win a competitive league if you have bad luck with injuries to key players.

Skill comes in having the ability to draft well, knowing who you can wait on and who you cannot. Also comes in making in-season transactions and not making shortsighted moves that hurt your team for the season.

Also skill comes into play because you know injuries always happen and built a strong bench in the draft having researched your best back-ups that would be available.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, papasmurf said:

Skill comes in having the ability to draft well, knowing who you can wait on and who you cannot. Also comes in making in-season transactions and not making shortsighted moves that hurt your team for the season.


what’s a short sighted move these days?  I agree that years ago it was considered dumb to drop a veteran off to a slow start for a young hot rookie.  Inevitably the veteran recovered and the rookie faded.

But today things are much more complex as there seems to be more impact rookies (or 2nd year players). Names like Ian Anderson, plesac, sixto Devon Williams etc 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...