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2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread


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It's the off-season for all but two teams, so let's start this party while people still care about baseball for the year.

 

Here's a good reference:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

 

The catching market is mostly meh. Castillo is ok. Flowers will have his option picked up. Lucroy had a crap season but it could be an anomaly. I could see him getting a decent payday for a team starved for some decency behind the dish (cough Washington cough cough)

 

First base is VERY interesting. There's a ton of dudes coming off career years. Hosmer will get the biggest contract, and it will wind up being an albatross for someone. But if you believe in Alonso, Duds, Morrison, etc, you might find a nice first baseman for a decent price. Despite career years, I don't see any of these surprises signing any big checks this off-season. 

 

 Second base will be pretty lame. I'm thinking that maybe the Astros will pick up Altuve's SIX MILLION DOLLAR option. Man, I hope that kid keeps up this performance, because he needs a big payday. 6 Mil is like what Bobby Bonilla this year.   a** Cab' s option should be picked up. This leaves Neil Walker as the last big name, and to be fair, I didn't follow his season at all (shame on me). I like Forsythe as a value pick.  Good track record, but a bad 2017.

 

Shortstop, woof.  Cozart was great this year but it's hard to trust these walk years. I think Nunez will get the best contract if the group, although I don't know if shortstop is where I would play him. 

 

Hot corner is Moose and Moose alone (save for the guys mentioned above that also play 3B). He should fetch a gnarly sum. He's only 29 and tons of teams would love to have him. $$$$$$$$$

 

Outfield is chalk full of decent guys that will get short contracts. J Up will not walk away from his Detroit deal. LoCain is a big name that will draw tons of interest (Cubs???), Cutch could be a club option pick up and flip. The most funnest name on here is JD Martinez. He got the tigers basically nothing in return, but I'd have to think he'd get a pretty nice payday. He was a monster in AZ...like a bigger monster than he was in DET. That's a damn impact bat. 

 

Ok...lets get to the fun stuff....SP!

Darvish is the best name on the list. However, Otani will upstage him by far once he's officially posted. 

Arrieta is a wild card. He was pretty meh this year, after regressing last year. I think he will get paid, but buyer beware. Cobb and Lynn are the only other two that move my manometer. I just don't see the other big names not getting optioned back to their clubs. However...Tanaka is a very interesting case. He's 29, and has 3/67 left that he can option out of. He had a down year but finished really strongly. I bet he opts out to get a bigger and lengthier deal. 

 

RP- Davis, Holland, and Watson are probably the best available. Davis is probably the safest. Health was a concern for him coming into 2017, and he survived the year pretty unscathed. Holland was a beast too.

 

Let it begin! Make it so! May the force be with you! Strike first, strike hard, no mercy!

 

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This doesn't belong here but had no idea where else to put it so people will see it. Tonight (1/30) starting at 7:00pm CST MLB.TV will run a documentary on Tony Gwynn. Should be worth watching as he w

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Need to edit topic for 2017. We are a year behind the 2018 off season.

 

FA is lacking punch overall. I think we see more big trades than normal. Headlined by a potential trades involving Stanton, Archer and Schwarber. 

 

Teams will also be cautious on the money they throw around with Bryce Harper sweepstakes looming in the near future.

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

It's the off-season for all but two teams, so let's start this party while people still care about baseball for the year.

 

Here's a good reference:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html

 

The catching market is mostly meh. Castillo is ok. Flowers will have his option picked up. Lucroy had a crap season but it could be an anomaly. I could see him getting a decent payday for a team starved for some decency behind the dish (cough Washington cough cough)

 

First base is VERY interesting. There's a ton of dudes coming off career years. Hosmer will get the biggest contract, and it will wind up being an albatross for someone. But if you believe in Alonso, Duds, Morrison, etc, you might find a nice first baseman for a decent price. Despite career years, I don't see any of these surprises signing any big checks this off-season. 

 

 Second base will be pretty lame. I'm thinking that maybe the Astros will pick up Altuve's SIX MILLION DOLLAR option. Man, I hope that kid keeps up this performance, because he needs a big payday. 6 Mil is like what Bobby Bonilla this year.   a** Cab' s option should be picked up. This leaves Neil Walker as the last big name, and to be fair, I didn't follow his season at all (shame on me). I like Forsythe as a value pick.  Good track record, but a bad 2017.

 

Shortstop, woof.  Cozart was great this year but it's hard to trust these walk years. I think Nunez will get the best contract if the group, although I don't know if shortstop is where I would play him. 

 

Hot corner is Moose and Moose alone (save for the guys mentioned above that also play 3B). He should fetch a gnarly sum. He's only 29 and tons of teams would love to have him. $$$$$$$$$

 

Outfield is chalk full of decent guys that will get short contracts. J Up will not walk away from his Detroit deal. LoCain is a big name that will draw tons of interest (Cubs???), Cutch could be a club option pick up and flip. The most funnest name on here is JD Martinez. He got the tigers basically nothing in return, but I'd have to think he'd get a pretty nice payday. He was a monster in AZ...like a bigger monster than he was in DET. That's a damn impact bat. 

 

Ok...lets get to the fun stuff....SP!

Darvish is the best name on the list. However, Otani will upstage him by far once he's officially posted. 

Arrieta is a wild card. He was pretty meh this year, after regressing last year. I think he will get paid, but buyer beware. Cobb and Lynn are the only other two that move my manometer. I just don't see the other big names not getting optioned back to their clubs. However...Tanaka is a very interesting case. He's 29, and has 3/67 left that he can option out of. He had a down year but finished really strongly. I bet he opts out to get a bigger and lengthier deal. 

 

RP- Davis, Holland, and Watson are probably the best available. Davis is probably the safest. Health was a concern for him coming into 2017, and he survived the year pretty unscathed. Holland was a beast too.

 

Let it begin! Make it so! May the force be with you! Strike first, strike hard, no mercy!

 

 

I would love for the Yankees to sign Moose. They need a third baseman and I know they have a couple of internal options that could play 3rd but Moose could hit mucho homeruno in yankee stadium. They do have Headley on the books for $13 mil this season but he hasn't done much. Frazier is also a FA but he sucks and the yanks may not want to give him a multi year deal. 

 

I am curious to see where JD Mart ends up. Like you said, JD's bat can make a major impaçt anywhere he goes and  I'm sure he added a few mil to his upcoming payday with the way he hit in Arizona after the trade. 

 

  

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread
6 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

First base is VERY interesting. There's a ton of dudes coming off career years. Hosmer will get the biggest contract, and it will wind up being an albatross for someone. But if you believe in Alonso, Duds, Morrison, etc, you might find a nice first baseman for a decent price. Despite career years, I don't see any of these surprises signing any big checks this off-season. 

...

Hot corner is Moose and Moose alone (save for the guys mentioned above that also play 3B). He should fetch a gnarly sum. He's only 29 and tons of teams would love to have him.

...

Darvish is the best name on the list. However, Otani will upstage him by far once he's officially posted. 

Arrieta is a wild card. He was pretty meh this year, after regressing last year. I think he will get paid, but buyer beware. Cobb and Lynn are the only other two that move my manometer. I just don't see the other big names not getting optioned back to their clubs. However...Tanaka is a very interesting case. He's 29, and has 3/67 left that he can option out of. He had a down year but finished really strongly. I bet he opts out to get a bigger and lengthier deal.

Good post and good of you to start this thread. 

But ... the three above I disagree with some.

I don't think Hosmer will be an albatross for any team.  He is still in his prime and has upped his power the last 2 years.  Also a gold glover.  Get him into a hitter friendly park and he could be a legit 1st tier 1B since he is already bordering on being one right now in KC.

I agree Moose is the class of 3B but both current Yankee 3Bers should get some attention.  Todd Frazier, obviously.  And even Chase Headley who started to play ball once Frazier came aboard and threatened him.  He could find a secondary career as a very handy corner utility guy at the very least.  Also KC is going to go hard after one of Hosmer/Moose so if Moose is the one re-signed then Frazier gets a big paycheck somewhere.

Arrieta wasn't meh this year.  He was down right bad in the first half and back to being lights out in the second half.  Meanwhile Darvish was the guy who was pretty meh after coming back from his injury.  Some terrible starts and some really good starts.  Darvish was yo-yoing up and down so who is the real Darvish moving forward?  Meanwhile Arrieta turned things around drastically to save his walk away season with his consistent second half.  Darvish will get the bigger contract but I would not be surprised if Arrieta brings the bigger return for the team getting him.

Having said all that I'd still rather have Cobb and/or Lynn for less money.  Both could well over-produce in bang-for-your-buck over the two "star" free agents.

In the meantime let us all pray that the Giants don't kidnap JD Martinez.  He needs to stay in Arizona or go to the Rockies or some other hitter's paradise.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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I just wonder if Hosmer just had a a good walk year and will simply go back to being ok. You could be right though, of course. 

 

And yes, there are other capable 3B, I just think that Moustakas is head and shoulders above the rest. 

 

Arrieta, you are correct that results were better in the second half, but FIP and xFIP were about the same in both halves and a little north of 4.00. However, I did not look that up until you brought up, so that's a good challenge. 

 

Darvish's metrics were better in the second half, surprisingly. 

 

 

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Hosmer is projected to be a 2.5 win player next year .. A single win above replacement is worth ~$8M in fair market value these days

 

Given Hosmer's combination of youth, durability, etc. I can see a team paying him something in the neighborhood of 6 to 7 years $160M 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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21 hours ago, Under500Forever said:

 

I would love for the Yankees to sign Moose. They need a third baseman and I know they have a couple of internal options that could play 3rd but Moose could hit mucho homeruno in yankee stadium. They do have Headley on the books for $13 mil this season but he hasn't done much. Frazier is also a FA but he sucks and the yanks may not want to give him a multi year deal. 

 

I am curious to see where JD Mart ends up. Like you said, JD's bat can make a major impaçt anywhere he goes and  I'm sure he added a few mil to his upcoming payday with the way he hit in Arizona after the trade. 

 

  

 

Nah, they don't need a 3B. Got plenty of IF depth in the minors. Torres or Castro will play 3B. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks don't sign ANYONE this offseason. Maybe they'll resign CC (where's he on the list?) and obviously they'll go (like every other team) hard after Otani.

Edited by exm
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18 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I just wonder if Hosmer just had a a good walk year and will simply go back to being ok. You could be right though, of course.

 

He didn't have a single good year.  2016 was also outstanding.  And he started that year off sluggish the first couple of months but came on like gang busters.  It is like something happened in mid-2016 that took him up to the next level and he hasn't looked back.

16 hours ago, coleporter said:

JD Martinez to Boston along with Moustakas would be good start for the Sox. 

Yeah well that isn't happening.  Love to see Moose to 3B with Devers over to 1B but am hoping for Hosmer to 1B and Devers remains at 3B since I think KC wants to keep Moose the most. 

And JD to Boston means Jackie Bradley gets traded and given his defensive sabermetrics that isn't likely.  Sox have the best defensive outfield trio in major league baseball and aren't likely to want to split them up.  I'd rather the Sox get Lynn or Cobb and improve what turned out to be a shaky and shallow rotation last year.

Now JD would be great but the Red Sox have had endless multi year mega-contracts in recent history all of which they basically regret.  A multi-year deal for JD might be the one that actually would work out but it is one mega deal too many.  A-Gon cost them Rizzo plus a fortune, Panda was a horror show, Rusney Castillo has become a career PawSox and even beloved Pedroia has a knee now that is beyond repair through 2021.  And one more year on Hanley's contract to go.  And David Price's is totally absurd and the guy wants out of Boston so bad as well.  (Interestingly David Ortiz's contracts were fairly short by comparison.  One multi-year (3 or 4 years) and the rest small extensions).

Of course what they really need aside from a good 1B is a new 2B but that involves treading on the sacred in Boston wince Pedroia is practically worshiped here and his contract runs through 2021.  It is going to be an awkward year ahead for all concerned involving the now chronically injured Pedy as everyone waits for him to make the hard call "for the good of the team."

4 hours ago, exm said:

Nah, they don't need a 3B. Got plenty of IF depth in the minors. Torres or Castro will play 3B. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks don't sign ANYONE this offseason. Maybe they'll resign CC (where's he on the list?) and obviously they'll go (like every other team) hard after Otani.

Don't forget that the Yankees also have Miguel Andujar to play 3B as well.  Torres gets all the hype but Andujar may end up the better player. They will probably have to trade either Anjujar or Torres away given the crowed the infield which means they will have a very VERY nice trade chip.  That or move one to second and unload Castro which might be the smarter move.

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4 hours ago, exm said:

 

Nah, they don't need a 3B. Got plenty of IF depth in the minors. Torres or Castro will play 3B. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yanks don't sign ANYONE this offseason. Maybe they'll resign CC (where's he on the list?) and obviously they'll go (like every other team) hard after Otani.

 

Don't rain on my parade! I want to see Moose in a yanks uniform next year. 

 

Your right, it probably won't happen. I knew they had internal options but I can hope 

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24 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

Don't rain on my parade! I want to see Moose in a yanks uniform next year. 

Your right, it probably won't happen. I knew they had internal options but I can hope 

Dude, the Yankees came within one game of the World Series in what was suppose to be a rebuilding year.  And they did it with internal options Judge and Sanchez and Severino and even Jordan Montgomery. 

So as a Boston fan I should say sure, get rid of the internal options and go throw money at Moose in one of those mega-deals that tie a club in knots for years to come.  Because that is how you start to destroy the Baby Bombers Era. 

But as a baseball fan I'd rather see the Yankees remain on track and have a really good team for a long time to come.  And the old Boston-NY rivalry come back in full bloom in a meaningful way for years to come as a result as well.

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7 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

He didn't have a single good year.  2016 was also outstanding.  

Hosmer was a -0.1 WAR player in 2016, although that was mostly driven down by horrendous defense.

 

He seems to alternate solid years with bad ones. 

 

Edited by 2ndCitySox
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Probably another boring off-season from the Pirates. But I have to admit, I've been rooting for the Pirates to sign Mous. Would be a great fit but.. it's the Pirates. The OF FA market pretty much kills the possibility of a McCutchen trade.

 

NL Central as a whole should be pretty interesting. Cubs will have holes, Cardinals, Brewers... 

 

Not sure what Otani ends up doing.. but if he does come over that will be amazing. 

 

Add Nicasio to the RP list. Nicasio has been very good for a couple of years now. Cardinals might resign him though, they need RP

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5 hours ago, mpbaseball22 said:

Probably another boring off-season from the Pirates. But I have to admit, I've been rooting for the Pirates to sign Mous. Would be a great fit but.. it's the Pirates. The OF FA market pretty much kills the possibility of a McCutchen trade.

 

NL Central as a whole should be pretty interesting. Cubs will have holes, Cardinals, Brewers... 

 

Not sure what Otani ends up doing.. but if he does come over that will be amazing. 

 

Add Nicasio to the RP list. Nicasio has been very good for a couple of years now. Cardinals might resign him though, they need RP

He has 1 year left at a pretty affordable rate in todays dollars...and his overall numbers were pretty good.  

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On 10/23/2017 at 11:58 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

He didn't have a single good year.  2016 was also outstanding.  And he started that year off sluggish the first couple of months but came on like gang busters.  It is like something happened in mid-2016 that took him up to the next level and he hasn't looked back.

i think you're misremembering hosmer's 2016.

2016 1st half: .299/.355/.476 (123 wRC+)

2016 2nd half: .225/.296/.380 (77 wRC+)

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Local MI radio speculating today that Victor retires due to heart health. Moves Miggy to full time DH, possibly means Candelario is the new 3b and Nick C now going to 1B. Not sure I like that for Nicks keeper value past next season.

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13 hours ago, osb_tensor said:

i think you're misremembering hosmer's 2016.

2016 1st half: .299/.355/.476 (123 wRC+)

2016 2nd half: .225/.296/.380 (77 wRC+)

I own him in a league.  Got him in a trade in late 2016 the week he started to go on a tear that last month and a half hitting more homers in that period than he had the first 4 months plus.  I don't give a fig out his WAR and other sabermetrics.  We don't count that stuff in our fantasy baseball leagues.  But OBP and TB plus his HR rate was great that final 6 weeks for me.

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10 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I own him in a league.  Got him in a trade in late 2016 the week he started to go on a tear that last month and a half hitting more homers in that period than he had the first 4 months plus.  I don't give a fig out his WAR and other sabermetrics.  We don't count that stuff in our fantasy baseball leagues.  But OBP and TB plus his HR rate was great that final 6 weeks for me.

i'm glad you owned him in a league... that doesn't change facts.

in the first half of 2016 he hit 13 HR, in the second half he hit 12 HR.

his average in the 1st half was .299 (with a .355 OBP), while it was only .225 (.296 OBP) in the second half.

he didn't hit more home runs in the last month and half than he had in the first four, nor did he have more total bases. he might have been great for you fantasy-wise, but your statement that something "happened mid-2016" which ignited a torrid pace ever since is just plain wrong.

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11 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I own him in a league.  Got him in a trade in late 2016 the week he started to go on a tear that last month and a half hitting more homers in that period than he had the first 4 months plus.  I don't give a fig out his WAR and other sabermetrics.  We don't count that stuff in our fantasy baseball leagues.  But OBP and TB plus his HR rate was great that final 6 weeks for me.

Well we were talking about contracts and who should get what. I don't think MLB negotiates based on fantasy stats. If you are talking fantasy, then yes hosmer was very solid. 

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I wan't to see how many average relievers get big money contracts, i love it when teams spend big money on garbage. Management thinks Bullpenning is the future. I don't i think their aren't enough good ones to go around

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Offseason hasn't even started yet, but I've already read articles attaching Cubs to Brandon Morrow and Christian Yelich. Also, apparently Cubs and Toronto were pretty close on a deal to send Stroman to the Cubs at the break, but Toronto wanted a ML piece. The Cubs weren't willing at the time, but now it looks like they are so I wonder if it's revisited.

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1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Offseason hasn't even started yet, but I've already read articles attaching Cubs to Brandon Morrow and Christian Yelich. Also, apparently Cubs and Toronto were pretty close on a deal to send Stroman to the Cubs at the break, but Toronto wanted a ML piece. The Cubs weren't willing at the time, but now it looks like they are so I wonder if it's revisited.

Yelich makes a lot of sense for the cubs, but are the Marlins that eager to move him? I figured he would cost a lot to acquire, and the cubs don't have the farm they used to.

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1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Offseason hasn't even started yet, but I've already read articles attaching Cubs to Brandon Morrow and Christian Yelich. Also, apparently Cubs and Toronto were pretty close on a deal to send Stroman to the Cubs at the break, but Toronto wanted a ML piece. The Cubs weren't willing at the time, but now it looks like they are so I wonder if it's revisited.

 

Have to think they address these Stanton rumors first, I can't see them moving Yelich if they do in fact move Stanton. Stanton trade is the key driver in determining what the Marlins new ownership does with the rest of the roster.

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