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2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread


2ndCitySox
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Ohtani seems like a really bright dude, but I don't see why he would go to an NL team.  He has enough leverage to do it if he wants to, but the idea that he'd risk his immense pitching upside by playing a defensive position on his non-pitching days seems really short-sighted.  DH-ing 2-3 times a week seems much more sensible, especially if his offensive game is as limited as some suggest.

 

I can't find a link for it, but in the Rotowire podcast, Todd Zola said the translation between his stats overseas and his MLB expectations comes in around Sean Rodriguez numbers -- someone you're happy to have in your 9-hole in the NL but not enough of an offensive force to justify the risk of losing him to an injury in the field.  Now obviously translating stats overseas to MLB production is a very inexact science, but be foolish not to have the option of DH-ing available.

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23 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Ohtani seems like a really bright dude, but I don't see why he would go to an NL team.  He has enough leverage to do it if he wants to, but the idea that he'd risk his immense pitching upside by playing a defensive position on his non-pitching days seems really short-sighted.  DH-ing 2-3 times a week seems much more sensible, especially if his offensive game is as limited as some suggest.

 

I can't find a link for it, but in the Rotowire podcast, Todd Zola said the translation between his stats overseas and his MLB expectations comes in around Sean Rodriguez numbers -- someone you're happy to have in your 9-hole in the NL but not enough of an offensive force to justify the risk of losing him to an injury in the field.  Now obviously translating stats overseas to MLB production is a very inexact science, but be foolish not to have the option of DH-ing available.

 

You do get 2-3 AB per time you pitch in the N.L. not to mention your ERA is going to be better pitching in the N.L., which will help his next contract.  We have so many statistics to adjust for park and league factors, but I continuously see NL pitchers being overpaid in free agency and AL ones often being underpaid. So I think there is some logic to make the two leagues a little closer in desirability for Ohtani.

 

The Sean Rodriguez comp is weird.  Sean Rodriguez was a great hitter in 2016 with his 350 PA for the pIrates. The type of numbers worthy of hitting in the middle of the lineup.  He only played 50 games last year and was bad, and bad or replacement  level every other year. So if we're getting anything outside of 2016 Sean Rodriguez, sure, thats a bad hitter that you can generally only tolerate hitting at the bottom of a lineup if he adds defensive value. 

 

I tend to think thats a weird player comp regardless, and we really don't know what he can do as a hitter at all. I think he can certainly be a good-very good hitter.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

You do get 2-3 AB per time you pitch in the N.L.

 

Yeah, but there's no rule forcing the AL teams to use the DH, either.  On days he pitches for an AL team, he can bat for himself.  It does create a problem later in games when AL teams would be forced to let relievers bat for themselves or pinch hit for them, but I think the opportunity to bat multiple times per week without fielding a position should be more compelling than a handful of ABs once every six days (he's said that a six-man rotation is a priority for him, as that's his schedule now.)

 

Just now, brockpapersizer said:

not to mention your ERA is going to be better pitching in the N.L., which will help his next contract. 

 

I have to think that MLB GMs factor a pitcher's league context into their valuation of pitchers already.  If not then they're not doing their jobs right.

 

Plus, the way he's talked so far he believes in his skills enough that I doubt this sort of thing would be high on his list of priorities.

 

Re: Rodriguez, I don't have any more context than what Zola said on the podcast.  Would like some more details about what numbers he got from the translated projections.

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18 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Well I wouldn't call the Dodgers and LA a non-major market and they are definitely cited as being heavily in the mix.  Hell, SF is a major market even if it's team is in rebuild mode.  Also the Cubs and Rangers are still in the mix.

Yes LA doesn't meet the smaller market criteria, yet the Dodgers are one of the 7 finalists (plus the rangers and cubs). 

 

However, I would guess that those 3 teams will have to sell hard to land him. 

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Mike Minor lands in Texas and is back to being a starter:

 

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Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the Rangers' plan is to utilize Mike Minor in the starting rotation.

 

The club agreed to a multi-year deal with the free agent southpaw on Monday, which is still pending a physical. If he isn't going to be used as the closer, then working out of the rotation is probably the next best thing for Minor's fantasy value in 2018.

 

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Interesting move -- Texas desperately needs the rotation help, and Minor has shown a lot as he's gotten farther out from his shoulder surgery.  I wonder how effective he can be as a starter long-term, but I can imagine a Duffy-like path where he sustains a velo/stuff increase until he gets fatigued.  Will keep him on the end-game / early season streaming radar, but can't see making a significant investment in a guy pitching in Arlington.

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Kevin Maitlan Rotoworld blurb with more details.  The Angels finally have a decent prospect in their farm system and look to be coming back as a legit team these days.  If they get Ohtani things could get interesting quickly in Anaheim.

 

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Buster Olney of ESPN reports that the Angels have signed former Braves prospect shortstop Kevin Maitan.

 

According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, the deal is worth $2.2 million. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register notes that the club can use next year's international bonus pool money, which would still leave room for the club to make a sizable offer to Shohei Ohtani. The club recently picked up some additional international spending money in the Jim Johnson deal with the Braves. Maitan was the biggest name of the prospects recently granted free agency by MLB following the Braves' scandal with international signings. The 17-year-old Maitan received a $4.25 million bonus as the top prospect in the 2016 international class. He batted just .241/.290/.340 with two homers and 18 RBI over 42 games in rookie ball this season, but the Angels will happily take a chance on his future.
 
Dec 5 - 12:44 PM

 

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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Yeah that was a surprise move by the Mariners.  And a pretty good one though there main need is pitching.  If they don't get Ohtani they will have to go after one of the main four free agent pitchers big time.  (Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn).  If they get some pitching then they are a team to watch this coming season for sure.

 

Anyway about Dee Gordon.  Did they just take on the contract and if so the whole thing?  Did they ship a prospect or two to the Marlins?  Rotoworld blurb here doesn't say as yet.  Anyone know?

 

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The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Dee Gordon has been traded from the Marlins to the Mariners.

 

Gordon figured to get moved as a result of the Marlins' cutbacks, but Seattle is a highly unexpected destination. Perhaps the Mariners believe he'll fit in center field. He can't possibly be displacing Robinson Cano.
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5 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Yeah that was a surprise move by the Mariners.  And a pretty good one though there main need is pitching.  If they don't get Ohtani they will have to go after one of the main four free agent pitchers big time.  (Darvish, Arrieta, Cobb and Lynn).  If they get some pitching then they are a team to watch this coming season for sure.

 

Anyway about Dee Gordon.  Did they just take on the contract and if so the whole thing?  Did they ship a prospect or two to the Marlins?  Rotoworld blurb here doesn't say as yet.  Anyone know?

 

 

I can't find anything either but the Mlbtraderumors report at least suggests that they dumped money:

 

"The Marlins have been working hard to pare salary this winter, and that meant finding a taker for the 29-year-old Gordon’s contract. He’s promised another $38MM through the 2020 season, including a buyout on a $14MM option for 2021."

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BBT per mlbtraderumors it smells like a straight salary dump: 

Righty Nick Neidert is one of the pieces in the deal, Bowden tweets. A second-round pick in 2015, Neidert dominated in 19 High-A starts last year, posting a 2.76 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 over 104 1/3 innings. But he fell flat upon a promotion to Double-A, surrendering 17 earned runs on 33 hits and recording just 13 strikeouts against five walks in his 23 1/3 innings there. And Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweetsthat scouts have not been all that high on Neidert’s future prospects in the majors.

 

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1 minute ago, AnonymousRob said:

Seattle also gets 1 million in international money and now can offer Ohtani more than any other team. 

Was about to come in and post about this

 

They must know by now it's between them and Rangers who I believe had most money before the Dee Gordon trade

 

I think at end it's between those two teams. Always follow the money

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX
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2 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Was about to come in and post about this

 

They must know by now it's between them and Rangers who I believe had most money before the Dee Gordon trade

 

I think at end it's between those two teams. Always follow the money

If it was *just* about the money, Ohtani would have waited another two years, or if he insisted on coming over now he wouldn't have dismissed Yankees and the entire east coast. 

Gotta think this helps for sure, but only as a small factor when all else is equal. He did grow up idolizing Ichiro...

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4 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

If it was *just* about the money, Ohtani would have waited another two years, or if he insisted on coming over now he wouldn't have dismissed Yankees and the entire east coast. 

Gotta think this helps for sure, but only as a small factor when all else is equal. He did grow up idolizing Ichiro...

Well the word is he already has so much endorsement money locked up for making the move to MLB and whatever he makes on this initial deal is a sweetener.

 

But at the end of day why not get the most possible

 

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX
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4 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Well the word is he already has so much endorsement money locked up for making the move to MLB and whatever he makes on this initial deal is a sweetener.

 

But at the end of day why not get the most possible

 

It's the American way!

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