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2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread


2ndCitySox
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1 minute ago, StevieStats said:

IMO Santana to Phillies is a terrible signing for the team, I don't get what they are thinking. They are supposed to be rebuilding but go sign (over pay) a 1B in his early 30s for a ridiculous $20 MM per year when they got a great young 1B in Hoskins, who instead they will force to play OF.

 

Stupid move for them.

 

 

I don't even necessarily think it's because they're "Rebuilding." I don't think it's outlandish for the Phillies to add some legitimate pieces and see where they stand this year and make a legitimate run at getting 80 games. They have some solid pieces now, such as Rhys, that could supply a wealth of upside as soon as this season-- but this is the WRONG piece to me. No defensive value, not in the AL, and someone you're paying a good amount over the next few years. Like I know he was considerably more expensive, but if yo uwanted to blow your wad on a First Baseman why not go after Hosmer who also has a bat that should play excellently in Citizens Bank. 

 

At the very least they could've waited for him to sign elsewhere. This just looks bad to me. 

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Pressure is on Boston.  JDM could return to the D Backs for more than what Boston offers and play the outfield. Boston has to move somebody to make room in the outfield. Its ain't going to be Betts. It aint going to be Bennintendi . Hmmm . Wonder who is left ?

They lost out on Hosmer by offering 15 mill total less than the Phillies offerd for three years. they could lose out on Hosmer . Fall back play if all else fails. Napoli a former Red Sox. And everybody else for that matter. But they might lose him too. Bet they make something happen before the weekend is out for either Hosmer, JDM or both.

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Phillies beat writers and bloggers seem to be coalescing around the idea that this was like their Thome signing in 2003, or the Nats' signing of Werth in 2011 -- not so much about contending that season or even the next, but to send a signal to other FAs that the team is serious about winning by adding veteran leadership and a marquee name.  I'm not sure I buy it, but the contract is fine $/WAR-wise, and it's not like Altherr and Williams are guaranteed locks to be healthy and put up the same or better numbers than 2017.  And it definitely adds to the number of pieces the Phillies have to flip for a SP, which they desperately need.

 

IOW, despite my initial hot take, I'm going to take a wait and see approach on this.

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51 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I don't even necessarily think it's because they're "Rebuilding." I don't think it's outlandish for the Phillies to add some legitimate pieces and see where they stand this year and make a legitimate run at getting 80 games. They have some solid pieces now, such as Rhys, that could supply a wealth of upside as soon as this season-- but this is the WRONG piece to me. No defensive value, not in the AL, and someone you're paying a good amount over the next few years. Like I know he was considerably more expensive, but if yo uwanted to blow your wad on a First Baseman why not go after Hosmer who also has a bat that should play excellently in Citizens Bank. 

 

At the very least they could've waited for him to sign elsewhere. This just looks bad to me. 

 

Santana's career wRC+: 123

Hosmer's career wRC+: 111

 

Santana's career OBP: .365

Hosmer's career OBP: .342

 

Santana's career WAR: 23.3

Hosmer's career WAR: 9.9

 

Santana has been a better hitter over his career than Hosmer and was also much better than Hosmer last year defensively.  Hosmer would have required a much longer contract and higher dollar amount.  I think it's a solid move for Philly as that division is poor outside of Washington and they need to start putting out a more competitive team.  

Edited by mjk356
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1 minute ago, mjk356 said:

 

Santana's career wRC+: 123

Hosmer's career wRC+: 111

 

Santana's career OBP: .365

Hosmer's career OBP: .342

 

Santana's career WAR: 23.3

Hosmer's career WAR: 9.9

 

Santana has been a better hitter over his career than Hosmer and was also much better than Hosmer last year defensively.  Hosmer would have required a much longer contract and dollar amount.  I think it's a solid move for Philly as that division is poor outside of Washington and they need to start putting out a more competitive team.  

 

Using career is biased against the player entering his prime against the one exiting it. True, Santana is a better walker, but Hosmer hit .310 last year with power. He's been progressing while Santana is likely to go the other way over the course of the deal. 

 

It's also insane to me to use Career WAR. I know Santana in terms of number of years hasn't even played that much more than Hosmer, and Hosmer's career has been up and down, but these just aren't fair stats to me. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Using career is biased against the player entering his prime against the one exiting it. True, Santana is a better walker, but Hosmer hit .310 last year with power. He's been progressing while Santana is likely to go the other way over the course of the deal. 

 

It's also insane to me to use Career WAR. I know Santana in terms of number of years hasn't even played that much more than Hosmer, and Hosmer's career has been up and down, but these just aren't fair stats to me. 

 

Really?  What stats do you want to use?  Santana has been a better player than Hosmer.  We all know how inconsistent Hos is.  Santana has 3 or 4 really good years left probably and that's what Philly signed him for.  Hosmer would require a mega deal and he's a very up and down player, as you stated.

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3 minutes ago, mjk356 said:

 

Really?  What stats do you want to use?  Santana has been a better player than Hosmer.  We all know how inconsistent Hos is.  Santana has 3 or 4 really good years left probably and that's what Philly signed him for.  Hosmer would require a mega deal and he's a very up and down player, as you stated.

santana is no where near as good as hosmer

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

santana is no where near as good as hosmer

 

Based on what?  Give me a metric, other than batting average, that says he's better.  It's not like Hos is a career .320 hitter.  Dude has had years where he's hit .232, .270 and .266.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

Their wRC+ the last 3 years are almost identical: 120 for Hosmer, 118 for Santana.  Basically rounding errors.

 

Hosmer's 3 years younger, but Santana's defensive metrics are much better.

huh? hosmer has 4 gold gloves?  what am i missing here?

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Just now, mjk356 said:

 

Based on what?  Give me a metric, other than batting average, that says he's better.  It's not like Hos is a career .320 hitter.  Dude has had years where he's hit .232, .270 and .266.

1 metric? defense

 

from a fantasy point, their ADPs will agree with me

 

and from a real life standpoint their contracts will agree with me

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

huh? hosmer has 4 gold gloves?  what am i missing here?

 

Dude, Hosmer's been one of the worst defensive 1B in the league.  Gold Gloves don't mean anything.  They give it to Hos because "He looks like a ballplayer" over there and antiquated stuff like that.

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Let’s Talk About Eric Hosmer’s Defense

 

 

Quote

The advanced numbers, the traditional numbers, the video scouts all say the same thing: Eric Hosmer is a perfectly ordinary defensive first baseman, likely one whose below-average range is cancelled out by a penchant for scooping balls in the dirt. How does that equate to three Gold Glove Awards? I’m not sure, and it probably shouldn’t, but my best guess it that those within the game — the managers whose votes make up 75% of the Gold Glove process — appreciate scoops more than the numbers do. Yost literally says Hosmer has “average range,” but that his scoops “[save] us countless errors, countless runs, because infielders can grab a ball, and they can turn around and throw it in the vicinity and know that Hos is gonna pick it.” What that quote tells me is that Yost believes Hosmer’s scooping ability far outweighs any range deficiencies he might have, though the numbers reveal no evidence of that being true.

 

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Just now, mjk356 said:

 

Dude, Hosmer's been one of the worst defensive 1B in the league.  Gold Gloves don't mean anything.  They give it to Hos because "He looks like a ballplayer" over there and antiquated stuff like that.

i still stand by my points

 

i think both the fantasy world, and GM world will agree Hosmer is better than Santana.

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

you think santana is better than hosmer defensively?

 

I mean, read that Fangraphs article.  I think it makes a compelling case that Hos is way overrated.  And Santana has shown he can hang in the outfield, which shows he has better defensive versatility and range.  People think he's a statue because he used to play behind the plate, but he's not.

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Just now, mjk356 said:

 

Really?  What stats do you want to use?  Santana has been a better player than Hosmer.  We all know how inconsistent Hos is.  Santana has 3 or 4 really good year left probably and that's what Philly signed him for.  Hosmer would require a mega deal and he's a very up and down player, as you stated.

 

Depends on if you think he's going to continue to be up and down. I don't know how you disagree that using career stats is a bit biased when comparing a guy who's 28 against a guy who's 32. Maybe just look at the last three years?

 

And sure, there's recency bias in using the most recent year, but Santana has never had a season as good as Hosmer 2017 by a VARIETY of metrics. He's never had a .385 OBP (aside from short sample seasons), he's never hit for a .318 BA, he's never had a 135 wRC+. 

 

We're also discussing many ups and downs that occurred at a young age. Hosmer's only truly bad season which tanks his Career WAR occurred when he was 23 YO. 

 

This is the first year I've been pro-Hosmer, but I really like what hes done over the coures of the past three years. 

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20 minutes ago, mjk356 said:

 

Dude, Hosmer's been one of the worst defensive 1B in the league.  Gold Gloves don't mean anything.  They give it to Hos because "He looks like a ballplayer" over there and antiquated stuff like that.

 

Looking at defensive metrics blindly also doesn't mean anything at all. As Tony as already posted one, there's a ton of debate over Hosmer's defense. I dont' think it's fair to just simply say "Hosmer's defense is bad." At the least it's debatable. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

 

Depends on if you think he's going to continue to be up and down. I don't know how you disagree that using career stats is a bit biased when comparing a guy who's 28 against a guy who's 32. Maybe just look at the last three years?

 

And sure, there's recency bias in using the most recent year, but Santana has never had a season as good as Hosmer 2017 by a VARIETY of metrics. He's never had a .385 OBP (aside from short sample seasons), he's never hit for a .318 BA, he's never had a 135 wRC+. 

 

We're also discussing many ups and downs that occurred at a young age. Hosmer's only truly bad season which tanks his Career WAR occurred when he was 23 YO. 

 

This is the first year I've been pro-Hosmer, but I really like what hes done over the coures of the past three years. 

 

I don't dislike Hosmer, but I think Santana is a really good player.  It is a strange move for Philly.  I think it would have made more sense for the Indians to bring him back, but it seems like Klentak badly wants some OBP-heavy hitters.

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