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2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread


2ndCitySox
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36 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Using career is biased against the player entering his prime against the one exiting it. True, Santana is a better walker, but Hosmer hit .310 last year with power. He's been progressing while Santana is likely to go the other way over the course of the deal. 

 

It's also insane to me to use Career WAR. I know Santana in terms of number of years hasn't even played that much more than Hosmer, and Hosmer's career has been up and down, but these just aren't fair stats to me. 

What exactly makes you think Hosmer isn't going to continue to be up and down? He's done it his entire 7 year career.  Why does it change now? What did he do in 2017 that he didn't do in 2015 other than a possible benift of a juiced ball this year to then to raise the HR/FB rate? Also high schoolers peak before college bats. Simply because 3 years in a MLB system prepares them better for the MLB than 3 years of college.

 

Don't get wrong, Santana is going to decline first of the 2 due to age/body type...but that is already accounted for in the length of a deal for both. They both have pitfalls. Early decline risk vs continued year to year inconstancy. 

Edited by Slatykamora
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1 minute ago, mjk356 said:

 

 

I don't dislike Hosmer, but I think Santana is a really good player.  It is a strange move for Philly.  I think it would have made more sense for the Indians to bring him back, but it seems like Klentak badly wants some OBP-heavy hitters.

 

And I don't dislike Santana. All I said was that I think if you're going to clutter up your easiest defensive position with a guy might as well get one who has a chance to be special for the next few years over one who's older and probably on the decline. 

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19 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

What exactly makes you think Hosmer isn't going to continue to be up and down? He's done it his entire 7 year career.  Why does it change now? What did he do in 2017 that he didn't do in 2015 other than a possible benift of a juiced ball this year to then to raise the HR/FB rate? Also high schoolers peak before college bats. Simply because 3 years in a MLB system prepares them better for the MLB than 3 years of college.

 

Don't get wrong, Santana is going to decline first of the 2 due to age/body type...but that is already accounted for in the length of a deal for both. They both have pitfalls. Early decline risk vs continued year to year inconstancy. 

 

I mentioned it in the last post-- but I think some of it does have to do with age. I think you can chalk up some of the ups and downs to age. Like 2016 was a relative down, but it still came with his lowest BABIP in a 5 year period. 

 

Again, I've NEVER been a Hosmer guy -- as early as last year I was an anti-Hosmer guy... but I'm starting to get on the Hosmer train. The power's there and the skills are  there. 

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18 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

how much do you think hell benefit if he signs with a team like Boston?

 

Fenway's really tough for lefty HR -- I think 2nd or 3rd worst park in MLB.  But Kaufman is bad for HR too, so that could be a push or just a slight downgrade.  Fenway's really good for run scoring generally because of the small foul territory and the big right field that leads to a lot of XBH though, so I think he benefits a lot in points leagues.  And of course the Boston lineup is going to help him a lot.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Their wRC+ the last 3 years are almost identical: 120 for Hosmer, 118 for Santana.  Basically rounding errors.

 

Hosmer's 3 years younger, but Santana's defensive metrics are much better.

Hosmer has a few Gold Gloves, Santana has none, I believe defensive metrics are very flawed, if you go by the eye test Hosmer is much better, the knock on Hosmer in the metrics is range, don't think Santana's range is any better than Hosmer's

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4 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Fenway's really tough for lefty HR -- I think 2nd or 3rd worst park in MLB.  But Kaufman is bad for HR too, so that could be a push or just a slight downgrade.  Fenway's really good for run scoring generally because of the small foul territory and the big right field that leads to a lot of XBH though, so I think he benefits a lot in points leagues.  And of course the Boston lineup is going to help him a lot.

I agree with all this and when you add in the other nice hitter parks in the division Rogers Centre, Camdong yards and NYY it should help Hos nicely.

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

I tend to think managers who actually watch guys play know a little more about defense then some nerd behind a computer, i love metrics when it comes to offense but hate them when it comes to defense and base running, there are too many variables to take into account to be able to quantify it

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6 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Fenway's really tough for lefty HR -- I think 2nd or 3rd worst park in MLB.  But Kaufman is bad for HR too, so that could be a push or just a slight downgrade.  Fenway's really good for run scoring generally because of the small foul territory and the big right field that leads to a lot of XBH though, so I think he benefits a lot in points leagues.  And of course the Boston lineup is going to help him a lot.

Really ? The Pesky pole is like 284 ft 

plus hosmer would pepper that left field wall 

and all of the other al east are hitters parks 

how many games will he play at yankee stadium ?

Big difference from pitchers parks in the central

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1 minute ago, azeri98 said:

I tend to think managers who actually watch guys play know a little more about defense then some nerd behind a computer,

 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but this is the same argument defenders of "traditional" stats like pitcher wins and RBI used against the advanced stats that basically every winning organization is relying on now.  Defensive metrics aren't nearly as dialed in as offensive metrics, but they are stable in multi-year samples, and since the Gold Glove was basically a half popularity contest half "MVP of the position" award until SABR got involved in 2013, I'm not inclined to believe that they're a reliable indicator of defensive skill.

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Ew, if I was Matt Moore I'd take half the money to go to any pitcher's park. 

 

He probably would but it was a trade and he had no say in it.  And SF to get back something called "prospects."  Does that team even know what one of those are are what to do with them?

 

1 hour ago, motown magic said:

Pressure is on Boston.  JDM could return to the D Backs for more than what Boston offers and play the outfield. Boston has to move somebody to make room in the outfield. Its ain't going to be Betts. It aint going to be Bennintendi . Hmmm . Wonder who is left ?

They lost out on Hosmer by offering 15 mill total less than the Phillies offerd for three years. they could lose out on Hosmer . Fall back play if all else fails. Napoli a former Red Sox. And everybody else for that matter. But they might lose him too. Bet they make something happen before the weekend is out for either Hosmer, JDM or both.

 

Though the front office tried to deny it a few days back, everyone knows JBJ is on the trade block.  SF has shown some interest since they don't want anyone who hits home runs in their outfield apparently.

 

1 hour ago, mjk356 said:

 

Dude, Hosmer's been one of the worst defensive 1B in the league.  Gold Gloves don't mean anything.  They give it to Hos because "He looks like a ballplayer" over there and antiquated stuff like that.

 

I'll go with the so-called "antiquated stuff" of professional baseball player and coaches assessments who say he is good over some fan site playing with flaky stats any day.

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6 minutes ago, motown magic said:

Really ? The Pesky pole is like 284 ft 

 

Yeah, and it's about a 10 foot wide zone or something.  Every source of park factors I've ever looked at that breaks park factors down by handedness shows that it's a really bad park for lefty homers.  You're free to disagree or cite your own numbers, but citing the existence of a small window where you can get 1-2 cheap homers per season if you're lucky isn't very compelling.

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7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Yeah, and it's about a 10 foot wide zone or something.  Every source of park factors I've ever looked at that breaks park factors down by handedness shows that it's a really bad park for lefty homers.  You're free to disagree or cite your own numbers, but citing the existence of a small window where you can get 1-2 cheap homers per season if you're lucky isn't very compelling.

 

Left-handed hitters can do check swings over the monster.  You don't have to pull the ball all the time you know.  The very best Red Sox power hitters in history were players like Ted Williams, Yaz and Big Papi all of whom batted lefty.  Hosmer would find himself in paradise at Fenway. 

 

Also the right field wall is real low fronting the bullpens as it does so line drives to right can carry out as well.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Left-handed hitters can do check swings over the monster.

 

He's always been a low launch angle guy though -- lots of GB, some LD, very few FB.  He does hit HR to all fields, but I don't think a lot of his oppo hits are going to be dongs given his swing path.  Like motown said, they'll be XBH.

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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

And line drive homers to right like I said.

 

Yes, the cavernous right field -- almost as big as PNC Park's left field, except for a very narrow band near the pole.  I can see a dead pull hitter aiming for the pole and maybe getting lucky a couple of times, but (a) Hosmer's not a dead pull hitter, and (b) show me the spray chart of any Boston hitter who's ever gotten more than one or two cheapies there. 

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4 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Yes, the cavernous right field -- almost as big as PNC Park's left field, except for a very narrow band near the pole.  I can see a dead pull hitter aiming for the pole and maybe getting lucky a couple of times, but (a) Hosmer's not a dead pull hitter, and (b) show me the spray chart of any Boston hitter who's ever gotten more than one or two cheapies there. 

 

Did you even read what I wrote earlier? The bullpen walls, that cover almost all of the area in right field other than the corner area, are maybe 5 to 6 feet high.  Barring someone flipping over an catching the ball inside the bullpen, and someone did that last year once, right field is good for lefty line drive hitters.

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23 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

He probably would but it was a trade and he had no say in it.  And SF to get back something called "prospects."  Does that team even know what one of those are are what to do with them?

 

Ah okay, with no research just seeing the message I thought he was an FA signing. 

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11 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Did you even read what I wrote earlier?

 

Yes, before you edited it to add the part about the walls.

 

11 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

he bullpen walls, that cover almost all of the area in right field other than the corner area, are maybe 5 to 6 feet high.

 

Yup.  And 380-400 feet from home plate.

 

11 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Barring someone flipping over an catching the ball inside the bullpen, and someone did that last year once, right field is good for lefty line drive hitters.

 

Hosmer's not a "line drive hitter" by any means.

 

By all means, though, please show me the batted balls on his 2017 spray chart that weren't homers that would be in Fenway.

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34 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I'm not saying you're wrong, but this is the same argument defenders of "traditional" stats like pitcher wins and RBI used against the advanced stats that basically every winning organization is relying on now.  Defensive metrics aren't nearly as dialed in as offensive metrics, but they are stable in multi-year samples, and since the Gold Glove was basically a half popularity contest half "MVP of the position" award until SABR got involved in 2013, I'm not inclined to believe that they're a reliable indicator of defensive skill.

Even if you use traditional stats the best teams were still the Astros and the Dodgers with the Cubs, Nats, Indians and Red Sox not far behind, where i think the metrics made a big difference is measuring OBP, I don't think RBI's are worth less these days , you can put as many guys on as you want, you still need someone to drive them in, if you have a guy in the middle of the line-up who has a low avg with risp you probably have a bad team

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14 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

, if you have a guy in the middle of the line-up who has a low avg with risp you probably have a bad team

 

"Average with RISP" is a worthless stat because it takes a stat that already takes a long time to stabilize (batting average) and removes about 3/4 of the sample size.  If managers are actually using that to make decisions, they aren't qualified to take tickets or sell Cracker Jack, much less manage a team.

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3 hours ago, StevieStats said:

IMO Santana to Phillies is a terrible signing for the team, I don't get what they are thinking. They are supposed to be rebuilding but go sign (over pay) a 1B in his early 30s for a ridiculous $20 MM per year when they got a great young 1B in Hoskins, who instead they will force to play OF.

 

Stupid move for them.

 

 

 

 

Disagree...

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