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2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread


2ndCitySox
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18 hours ago, Low and Away said:

The possibility of 50+ HR along with the accompanying RBI, fan support with the PR, and they need some players. The less they have to offer may work to the Marlins advantage though. For the Marlins it is a salary dump and the less they get back you would think the less they have to chip in to pay off Stanton's contract. It almost sounds like a win/win situation. Won't happen but does work for both teams.

But the Marlins DO want something back from a team other than a salary dump.  Their farm isn't that great either.  They want some good top prospects and/or some cheap first year guys already up.  They need to rebuild, not just salary dump alone.  And they do that with young players that will cost them next to nothing over a number of years.

That's why St Louis said to be offering a good young pitcher is very intriguing.  Is it one of their prospects?  Alex Reyes coming off of TJ who could become the ace of your staff?  Alcantara with his 100 mph arm?  Or Flarerty (sp? this doesn't look right) already up but still cheap for years to come?  Even Luke Weaver?

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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The Phillies fan in me me wants to dismiss the Trout to Philadelphia in 2019 speculation as far-fetched, but the timing of the team's rebuild makes it not crazy.  Even though the Angels are making an honest push to remain relevant, I think a lot of their 2017 success was smoke and mirrors, and if they sell out to win in 2018 and it doesn't work out, I think ownership would start having to think about a change.   Meanwhile, the Phillies still have top 10 farm system after all the recent promotions, and the Angels system is the worst in the league.  Even assuming 2018 promotions for  Kingery, Crawford, and Alfaro, there would be a lot of trade chips left to make a Trout move happen.

 

But it only happens if the Phillies are on a trajectory to contend in 2019, which I think would mean at least .500 ball and hopefully somewhere in the 85 win range.  That can't happen unless they add at least one, probably two starters for 2018 .  They probably get priced out of Arrieta and Darvish, and the timing isn't right for either of them to be part of a 3-5 year window of contention anyway.  Definitely don't want a Halladay/Lee situation where they pay big for an arm or two that can only get one or two bites at the apple.   Lance Lynn seems like a better fit, but he'll draw a lot of interest elsewhere.  Pitching help doesn't seem to be coming from the upper minors right now given what Pivetta, Lively, Thompson have looked like so far, but if any of them takes a step forward and the offense comes together under the new coach, flirting with .500 isn't out of the question.

 

Still, I think priority #1 for Trout is going to be winning a title -- the hometown factor will at most be a tiebreaker.

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23 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

I don't get why the Giants would want Stanton. They need a LOT to get back to goodness. Stanton would put all the eggs in one basket.

 

I don't think they will get him, but it makes a ton of sense to me.

 

They still have a lot of very solid players with windows that won't be open much longer.  They need a slugger that is ATT proof and he might be it.  I don't think it puts all of their eggs in one basket because they have a lot of money coming off the books.  Cain is $22 million coming off the books and I think they paid that stadium off which supposedly frees up a lot of money should they choose to spend it.  Not sure they will, but they aren't broke either.

 

They have to overpay offensive players to come there as FA and even then many won't because of that park.  Can you think of the last big name offensive player that signed there?  They know that FA isn't a game that they win at and for that reason, they have been much more active in trying to trade for guys instead or bringing up home grown talent.  The new GM stinks so far though and that talent well has gone very dry as the last several drafts have not been good.

 

I think trading for a guy like Stanton might be one of their only options to get better right away.

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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

But the Marlins DO want something back from a team other than a salary dump.  Their farm isn't that great either.  They want some good top prospects and/or some cheap first year guys already up.  They need to rebuild, not just salary dump alone.  And they do that with young players that will cost them next to nothing over a number of years.

That's why St Louis said to be offering a good young pitcher is very intriguing.  Is it one of their prospects?  Alex Reyes coming off of TJ who could become the ace of your staff?  Alcantara with his 100 mph arm?  Or Flarerty (sp? this doesn't look right) already up but still cheap for years to come?  Even Luke Weaver?

IF the Marlins get any good young prospect the money they send that organization goes up. Say if they need to send 15m a year to that team your good young prospect effectively costs them 15m a year till the contract ends.

 

 The better the prospect the more they will send. 

 

The same holds true with Gordon. Ask the Angels how the Josh Hamilton trade went, the Yankees received money from Texas every year for Arod till that contract ended.

 

Why if they were doing just a simple rebuild would they want a player who could be an "ACE" of the staff? By the time the rebuild is finished your ACE leaves in FA and you would still be out the money. 

 

Trade may happen but doesn't make sense from a financial point of view. 

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10 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

The Phillies fan in me me wants to dismiss the Trout to Philadelphia in 2019 speculation as far-fetched, but the timing of the team's rebuild makes it not crazy.  Even though the Angels are making an honest push to remain relevant, I think a lot of their 2017 success was smoke and mirrors, and if they sell out to win in 2018 and it doesn't work out, I think ownership would start having to think about a change.   Meanwhile, the Phillies still have top 10 farm system after all the recent promotions, and the Angels system is the worst in the league.  Even assuming 2018 promotions for  Kingery, Crawford, and Alfaro, there would be a lot of trade chips left to make a Trout move happen.

 

But it only happens if the Phillies are on a trajectory to contend in 2019, which I think would mean at least .500 ball and hopefully somewhere in the 85 win range.  That can't happen unless they add at least one, probably two starters for 2018 .  They probably get priced out of Arrieta and Darvish, and the timing isn't right for either of them to be part of a 3-5 year window of contention anyway.  Definitely don't want a Halladay/Lee situation where they pay big for an arm or two that can only get one or two bites at the apple.   Lance Lynn seems like a better fit, but he'll draw a lot of interest elsewhere.  Pitching help doesn't seem to be coming from the upper minors right now given what Pivetta, Lively, Thompson have looked like so far, but if any of them takes a step forward and the offense comes together under the new coach, flirting with .500 isn't out of the question.

 

Still, I think priority #1 for Trout is going to be winning a title -- the hometown factor will at most be a tiebreaker.

I think they go with a guy like Chatwood on a year with an option to keep around and be the number 4 in 2019....go and get the 1 or 2 in FA in the bonanza of 2018-2019 to go with Nola

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX
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16 hours ago, Low and Away said:

IF the Marlins get any good young prospect the money they send that organization goes up. Say if they need to send 15m a year to that team your good young prospect effectively costs them 15m a year till the contract ends.

 The better the prospect the more they will send. 

The same holds true with Gordon. Ask the Angels how the Josh Hamilton trade went, the Yankees received money from Texas every year for Arod till that contract ended.

Why if they were doing just a simple rebuild would they want a player who could be an "ACE" of the staff? By the time the rebuild is finished your ACE leaves in FA and you would still be out the money. 

Trade may happen but doesn't make sense from a financial point of view. 

Bottom line is no matter what Jeter says about how much money he wants to drop, they still actually have to field a team in Miami.  Without it no one comes to the games or watches on TV as ad revenues tank as fees drop because of the poor ratings so the next TV contract for Marlins games will go way down and the TV contract is a major component to the team's total revenues.  In other words you need a decent product or you generate next to no revenue back to pay the bills. 

A rebuild can happen in 2 to 3 years with a good GM who can rake in a mess of young talent with Stanton and Ozuma.  If most are prospects then 3-4 years away.  But you actually have to have some payers in your system somewhere to be a baseball team.  Their farm system has nada.  You can't just dump Stanton for cash savings alone when you have no players in your system.  You need cheap young players back along with a salary dump of some kind.

As for a young pitcher now major league ready?  They need product like I said and they plan on keeping other youngish players like Yelisch and Realmuto and Bour.  You got to send someone out to the mound who won't give up 6 runs in the first inning every game. 

If you tank your team by not putting any product out there that is not in the best interests of MLB as a whole.  And if you want to re-sell your team when you make no profits because you made it all about saving money and not playing ball you will find out the value of your team on the open market has also tanked.

Jeter may "want" to do this and that thing to save zillions but that doesn't mean he "can" do this and that thing in the end.  Not without becoming the worst owner in MLB history.

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Yes I'll agree with all that. But this isn't the Red Sox or Cubs where money seems to be no object. They can have the top farm system but IF they don't have the money to pay for it doesn't do them much good.

 

It is also a different fan base then close to anywhere else in the country. There are more Red Sox/Yankee fans then Marlin fans. Being a sunbird state almost guarantees this will always be that way. Imagine yourself being a Red Sox fan and moving to FLA. Going to change your favorite team and support the Marlins? 

 

But whatever most analysts agree that talent is needed but the trades they want to make are driven by salary dumps which is also being stated. 

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On 11/5/2017 at 1:29 PM, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

lets see 

 

1. he grew up 30 minutes from Philly

2. tailgated during Phillies run

3. Is a Eagles season ticket holder

4. his parents can come to every home game

 

I don't know is that enough?

 

5. His best friend is Carson Wentz

6. He has an apartment in center city.

7. His family (he is a huge family guy) would want to see him finish his career a short 45 min drive from where they all live. 

 

Do they still need more?

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1 minute ago, South Jersey Bombers said:

 

5. His best friend is Carson Wentz

6. He has an apartment in center city.

7. His family (he is a huge family guy) would want to see him finish his career a short 45 min drive from where they all live. 

 

Do they still need more?

Yes. Does he want to win? If not then sure, Philly makes sense. 

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Not sure where to post this but...sad news ( possibly )

 

Reports indicate Roy Halladay's new plane crashed in the Gulf of Mexico. One person has died. This person could be Roy Halladay. A news conference is scheduled for 4:15pm est to release identity of person killed. Usually if a press conference is held of this magnitude, can't be good news.

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6 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Like who? Herrera sucks, Hernedez is OK, Hoskins looks good, Altherr looks good... who else

 

Nola, JP Crawford, Franco, Cozens, Kingery, Eickhoff, Alfaro, Quinn, Nick Williams, and probably a bunch of fringe Starters (thompason, piveta etc)

 

further down the line Sixto, Kilome, my boy Jhailyn Ortiz, Moniak

 

 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Nola, JP Crawford, Franco, Cozens, Kingery, Eickhoff, Alfaro, Quinn, Nick Williams, and probably a bunch of fringe Starters (thompason, piveta etc)

 

further down the line Sixto, Kilome, my boy Jhailyn Ortiz, Moniak

 

 

But who out of that bunch takes this team from bad to great? That's what I'm getting at. You and I both know that prospects are more prone to busting than blooming... Their offense, imo, isn't going to be that exciting. I just think if you want to win Philly isn't the choice. 

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51 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

But who out of that bunch takes this team from bad to great? That's what I'm getting at. You and I both know that prospects are more prone to busting than blooming... Their offense, imo, isn't going to be that exciting. I just think if you want to win Philly isn't the choice. 

 

Nobody said they were going to be great.  trending upwards <> great

 

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3 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

But who out of that bunch takes this team from bad to great? That's what I'm getting at. You and I both know that prospects are more prone to busting than blooming... Their offense, imo, isn't going to be that exciting. I just think if you want to win Philly isn't the choice. 

 

True it isn't the choice, but I think they're probably a lot deeper than the angels are. 

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3 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

But who out of that bunch takes this team from bad to great? That's what I'm getting at. You and I both know that prospects are more prone to busting than blooming... Their offense, imo, isn't going to be that exciting. I just think if you want to win Philly isn't the choice. 

 

They also only have one person signed to a long-term guaranteed contract, Herrera (4 years 25 mil). I think this is the main point you are missing.

 

The young core will all be up next year and might look something like this going forward by the end of next year:

 

C-Alfaro

1B-Hoskins

2B-Kingery/Hernandez

SS-Crawford

3B-Hernandez/Franco/Kingery

LF-Altherr

CF-Herrera

RF-Williams/Cozens/??

 

Not really a fan of Alfaro and Williams because of their approach, but they do have some upside if they put it all together.

 

Their main problem is pitching. They have the 3rd pick in the draft and I expect them to take a high upside pitcher. They have Sixto, who will begin the year in Hi-A that has ace potential and the ability to move fast due to his ++ velocity and command profile. Flashes plus secondaries, but never needed to rely on them until he got to Hi-A. They have a lot of pitching depth, it's just moving up from the low minors.

 

Going into 2019, I think they need to add a starter or two in FA.

1-Nola

2-fa 1

3-fa 2

4-Org guy that breaks out, FA find, or #3 pick

5-Sixto

 

Darvish is an interesting overpay if you think he helps you recruit and land Otani, who you can guarantee PH abs too and maybe a fill in RF start here and there. I'm quite skeptical of the bat and think the whole two-way thing is BS, but it is a great story.

Edited by Light Tower Power
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^^^I'd add:

 

12:15

Craig: What’s the big takeaway from this year’s World Series?

12:15

Eno Sarris: An executive told me recently… “Baseball is not that hard to figure out. You build a core, and when it’s ready, you add some veterans.”

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eno-sarris-baseball-chat-11317/

 

The question with the Phils. Do you make a splash this off-season, or wait until the 2018 off-season. Personally, I would wait to make a splash next year, but wouldn't be against a Lynn or Cobb type this year. I might not like that overpay in this market, as Mike Leake got 5 for 75 million and I think they are both better than him at this stage. With hitting so easy to find, I imagine pitching on the open market might get stupid pricey this off-season.

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10 hours ago, jb_power said:

 

Nobody said they were going to be great.  trending upwards <> great

 

Well, sure... But if you're talking about winning, why would someone choose the Phillys right now? No one has really answered that. All I'm seeing is they have a lot of prospects... Unless a FA doesn't care about winning a WS title, what's the point in going to a team that's still building?

 

8 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

True it isn't the choice, but I think they're probably a lot deeper than the angels are. 

Sure

 

8 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

They also only have one person signed to a long-term guaranteed contract, Herrera (4 years 25 mil). I think this is the main point you are missing.

 

The young core will all be up next year and might look something like this going forward by the end of next year:

 

C-Alfaro

1B-Hoskins

2B-Kingery/Hernandez

SS-Crawford

3B-Hernandez/Franco/Kingery

LF-Altherr

CF-Herrera

RF-Williams/Cozens/??

 

Not really a fan of Alfaro and Williams because of their approach, but they do have some upside if they put it all together.

 

Their main problem is pitching. They have the 3rd pick in the draft and I expect them to take a high upside pitcher. They have Sixto, who will begin the year in Hi-A that has ace potential and the ability to move fast due to his ++ velocity and command profile. Flashes plus secondaries, but never needed to rely on them until he got to Hi-A. They have a lot of pitching depth, it's just moving up from the low minors.

 

Going into 2019, I think they need to add a starter or two in FA.

1-Nola

2-fa 1

3-fa 2

4-Org guy that breaks out, FA find, or #3 pick

5-Sixto

 

Darvish is an interesting overpay if you think he helps you recruit and land Otani, who you can guarantee PH abs too and maybe a fill in RF start here and there. I'm quite skeptical of the bat and think the whole two-way thing is BS, but it is a great story.

Sorry, what does it matter if they have only one guy signed? Are you saying that they'll be spending a crap ton on FA? Does that automatically mean that they get better? Some FA signings are meh, some are good, some are great, some are terrible... It can be a crap shoot.

 

The lineup your posting looks like it could be bad or good. There is no reason to assume either... There are like 4 guys with real MLB experience, and they aren't all All-Stars are they? 

 

Yeah, pitching sucks. Lots of kids are touted as ace material and come up and are a 5th starter... It's a crap shoot.

 

You guys are misunderstanding. I'm not saying the Phillies suck or that they have no future. I'm saying that if I'm a FA and want to win a WS, why on Earth would I sign with them right now? This team was terrible last year, and you guys are acting like an influx of kids will make them much better. That can also go the opposite way...

Edited by BlueJaysIn2030
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53 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

 

 

You guys are misunderstanding. I'm not saying the Phillies suck or that they have no future. I'm saying that if I'm a FA and want to win a WS, why on Earth would I sign with them right now? This team was terrible last year, and you guys are acting like an influx of kids will make them much better. That can also go the opposite way...

 

Look at the Cubs and Astros, same blue print.  Your 2019 or 2020 WS champs.

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