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2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread


2ndCitySox
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That could be a tricky time sharing situation if Realmuto goes to the Astros.  Gattis should do most of his work at DH, but ideally you'd like to rotate other guys in there, especially with Fisher deserving a chance to play more than usual 4th OF reps.  McCann wants to go back to Atlanta, but they just exercised the option on Flowers, and the combo with him and Suzuki was really good for them.

 

I mean, obviously, Realmuto should play over McCann, but it could be a 55/45 split unless something else happens.

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2 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Sensical signing for the Cubs, although they bear all the risk. 6 years $126M (150 with Incentives), which is a fair AAV, but also a full NTC and opt outs ( I need to verify this) for years 2 and 3.

If the opt outs are correct, they have Yu for 2018, with a lot of variables playing for seasons beyond.

 

That being said, the Cubs rotation was solid before, but now as 4 guys at the top that should be #2 pitchers. They could use a bounce-back from Lester and Hendricks, but I think that is fairly likely. Cubs should shoot for another strong reliever, and they should be good for another trip to the NLCS (or beyond)

Correction: first opt out after 2019

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3 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

 

 

I don't see Houston trading Tucker.  No way.  But they have enough expendable prospects to make the deal easily unlike the Nats who have been trying for a month or more for Realmuto.  Marlins wanted Robles from the Nats and Tucker is the Astros' Robles in that he is their future best outfielder.  Nats said no. Astros will say no.  Earth to Marlins, stop being silly.  Take some quantity of good prospects instead of a single great prospect you can't get and move on.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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17 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

 

His career era against the NL Central is 2.41. He seemed to like pitching in the NL over the AL last year.

How many games? This  year all the offences are better except Pittsburgh i doubt he has a sub 3.00 era pitching a third of his games in  that division

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10 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Every pitcher does.  And the NL is a piece of cake after you spent years in the AL too.

Piece if cake? Should every NL team just target AL pitchers then?

Obviously avoiding the DH helps but you might be overstating the difference. 

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As some might have been following MLB news, there will be a 31st spring training camp this year for all the remaining free agents as the market seems to be in somewhat of a stalemate at this point.  One of the points I have made for years in most sports and I think its really applicable to this situation is that the Worst to First draft model is as out-dated as phone books, foldable maps and travel agents.  This idea of "tanking" is killing professional sports.  Its one thing for an NFL team in December to think about a pick, I can remember intently as a Cowboys fan when the the Packers rose up and beat the then Phoenix Cardinals in 1988 to give the Cowboys the No.1 overall pick and Troy Aikman.  

 

But to take season(s) because the pathway to a championship is clearer when you are really bad than a middle of the road team - seems to not be a sustainable model for professional sports, especially with the prices they are charging to attend games, the money they expect advertisers to pay for TV commercials, advertising on websites, in the stadiums, etc.  

 

This is an easy fix for all sports:

* Team with the best record not in the playoffs picks 1st - team with the worst record picks last among the non-playoff teams.  So if you were looking at 30-team MLB draft order.  Team with best record not in Wild Card game picks 1st down to the team with worst record picks 20th playoff teams then go 21-30.

 

* The Incentive then to improve your team is to WIN - games in July, August, September, even for teams who seem out of playoff contention are still meaningful.  

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3 minutes ago, parrothead said:

This is an easy fix for all sports:


Easy to implement, sure.  The problem is that even assuming it has its intended effect and every team tries hard to win throughout the season, there are still going to be teams that come up short.  Now they get a much worse draft pick.  Of course that doesn't guarantee they'll do worse -- Mike Trout was a 25th overall pick -- but it's definitely harder to rebuild when you're not getting early picks, and without a salary cap, I see the small market teams and even mid-market teams that just have a bad run of luck having a really hard time digging out.

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Don't like it. It would help teams that don't need help and would make it even harder for some teams to improve.

 

I prefer a lottery, like in the NBA. This is why they started using it and it seems like the best way to deal with the problem.

Edited by dan
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28 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:


Easy to implement, sure.  The problem is that even assuming it has its intended effect and every team tries hard to win throughout the season, there are still going to be teams that come up short.  Now they get a much worse draft pick.  Of course that doesn't guarantee they'll do worse -- Mike Trout was a 25th overall pick -- but it's definitely harder to rebuild when you're not getting early picks, and without a salary cap, I see the small market teams and even mid-market teams that just have a bad run of luck having a really hard time digging out.

Right. And could you imagine the Yankees signing everyone under the sun and then landing Carlos Correa, etc? That simply wouldn’t be sustainable. I think the only solution is to instill a lottery system. Maybe even more throughly than the current NBA lottery.

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This is off the top of my head for a lottery system (which is probably the best route). But I look at revamping the way the NHL/NBA does it, and maybe that brings some balance to trying to win but still getting a good draft pick if you suck.

 

What you do is do a lottery for each of the top 3 picks between the 20 non-playoff teams. Where I think it could differ from the NHL/NBA is giving each of the 20 teams the same odds of landing the #1 pick. So 5% each. Then after the top 3 are drawn the rest of the non-playoff teams slot in reverse standings. As normal. So if you come last and lose all 3 lottery picks, you get 4th overall. But still the odds of getting #1 are the same for the last place team and the first non-playoff team.

 

Maybe this makes no sense at all. Was just a thought.

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5 hours ago, tonycpsu said:


Easy to implement, sure.  The problem is that even assuming it has its intended effect and every team tries hard to win throughout the season, there are still going to be teams that come up short.  Now they get a much worse draft pick.  Of course that doesn't guarantee they'll do worse -- Mike Trout was a 25th overall pick -- but it's definitely harder to rebuild when you're not getting early picks, and without a salary cap, I see the small market teams and even mid-market teams that just have a bad run of luck having a really hard time digging out.

I always thought it should be the bottom 4 teams have their own little tournament... winner takes home pick 1, the other 3 are lottery. That would make being the worst of the worst more difficult to do.

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We have a similar anti-tanking rule in our CBS Fantasy Land where ideas like this work out much better than IRL.  Top 4 teams make the playoffs.  Team number 5 gets the #1 overall draft pick in the 1st round, #6 gets #2 pick, etc.  This applies for the first round only however.  The last 4 picks of the 1st round go to the number 4 team through to the top team.

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2 hours ago, DonaldsDucks said:

This is off the top of my head for a lottery system (which is probably the best route). But I look at revamping the way the NHL/NBA does it, and maybe that brings some balance to trying to win but still getting a good draft pick if you suck.

 

What you do is do a lottery for each of the top 3 picks between the 20 non-playoff teams. Where I think it could differ from the NHL/NBA is giving each of the 20 teams the same odds of landing the #1 pick. So 5% each. Then after the top 3 are drawn the rest of the non-playoff teams slot in reverse standings. As normal. So if you come last and lose all 3 lottery picks, you get 4th overall. But still the odds of getting #1 are the same for the last place team and the first non-playoff team.

 

Maybe this makes no sense at all. Was just a thought.

 

Sounds interesting, but I'm missing the incentive to not tank. You can still tank and get the 4th pick, at worst...and still might get one of the top three picks. 

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Does tanking even happen in baseball?  I mean you're #1 pick is still 3-4 years away and far from a sure thing.  Sure if there is a generational talent consensus #1 that comes along maybe once a decade sorta deal.  Tanking is much more a thing in the NBA and NFL where you get instant injection of that pick into your line-up. 

 

The real problem is that there is too much non-gate money for owners.  They don't have to worry about getting fans to the game - the television deal covers all their expenses.  Also franchise values are skyrocketing even when you team is crapola.  Detroit Pistons sold for $325M in 2011, it was valued at $810M by Forbes recently - a 250% increase in value in seven years.  In those seven years ONE playoff appearance, going out in a sweep against Cleveland.  

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Wondering where Arrieta ends up.  The Yankees are thought to be after Lynn, maybe Odorizzi.  https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-rumors-yankees-still-after-rotation-help-after-losing-out-on-yu-darvish/ They're trotting out Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray, and Montgomery which looks pretty dang good already especially with that offense.  They're said to not be super close to the $197 luxury tax threshold as of yet.  We know the Dodgers are closer though.  I say he ends up in Milwaukee.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/2/11/17000944/milwaukee-brewers-intent-on-adding-starting-pitcher-have-reportedly-explored-deal-for-jharel-cotton

 

My Cards are done acquiring I guess.  My Donaldson trade dream is slipping away . . . 

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5 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Wondering where Arrieta ends up.  The Yankees are thought to be after Lynn, maybe Odorizzi.  https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-rumors-yankees-still-after-rotation-help-after-losing-out-on-yu-darvish/ They're trotting out Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, Gray, and Montgomery which looks pretty dang good already especially with that offense.  They're said to not be super close to the $197 luxury tax threshold as of yet.  We know the Dodgers are closer though.  I say he ends up in Milwaukee.

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/2/11/17000944/milwaukee-brewers-intent-on-adding-starting-pitcher-have-reportedly-explored-deal-for-jharel-cotton

 

 

Arrieta to MIL might be good. Cotton? Ugh

 

btw Cotton is renting my buddies condo in Tempe. Csb 

Edited by Members_Only_76
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I'd forgotten about Santana's finger injury.  That puts MIN in a decent spot.  Supposedly Arrieta hasn't been offered anything more than a 4 year pact.

 

From MLBTRADERUMORS:

  • The small-market Twins aggressively went after Darvish this winter, even meeting with him in Texas at some point, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. Their offer to Darvish was for at least five years and $100MM, according to Heyman (Twitter link). The Twins’ courtship of Darvish went for naught, though, perhaps thanks to their dislike for opt-out clauses and a wariness toward giving him a sixth year, writes Berardino, who adds that they could now look to top available starter Jake Arrieta. On the trade front, Rays righties Chris Archerand Jake Odorizzi remain on Minnesota’s radar, relays Berardino, though he suggests the Twins would have to give up too much for the former. Meanwhile, Rosenthal reports that there’s a belief among rival executives the Twins could still add a starter via both free agency and the trade market. Along with Odorizzi, he lists free agent Alex Cobb and Astros righty Collin McHugh as hurlers who have drawn Minnesota’s interest.

 

And RE: Mr. Cotton the pitcher in search of a better breaking ball:

 

  • The upstart Brewers were part of the Darvish derby, too, and the belief is that they also submitted a proposal of at least five years and $100MM, Heyman tweets. However, Rosenthal hears that Milwaukee’s offer “was not as competitive as reports indicated.” Further, Rosenthal suggests that the Brewers may have primarily been in the running just to drive up the price for the NL Central rival Cubs. Regardless, with Darvish now out of the mix, Odorizzi and the Athletics’ Jharel Cotton are trade possibilities for the Brew Crew, according to Rosenthal.
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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Sounds interesting, but I'm missing the incentive to not tank. You can still tank and get the 4th pick, at worst...and still might get one of the top three picks. 

 

Yeah there is no perfect situation. But there is less incentive to tank because if you try to compete and miss out you have the same odds as the bottom teams of getting a top 3 pick. But you do still have to give the bottom teams something to work with to get better. 

 

It's just an idea to get teams to compete a bit more. If the MLB believes this is an issue I think it may help a bit.

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