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2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread


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16 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Like who? Herrera sucks, Hernedez is OK, Hoskins looks good, Altherr looks good... who else

 

16 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Nola, JP Crawford, Franco, Cozens, Kingery, Eickhoff, Alfaro, Quinn, Nick Williams, and probably a bunch of fringe Starters (thompason, piveta etc)

further down the line Sixto, Kilome, my boy Jhailyn Ortiz, Moniak

 

I love this club's youth core.  More than the Cub's rebuild I like the Phillies rebuild. 

They are going to rock and not too far away from doing it. 

Alfaro was tearing the cover off the ball when he was called up in August was it.  Never slowed down.  Could be the next A-grade hitting catcher and should be owned in all fantasy leagues for this coming season.  Rhys all the way.  He is going to be their cornerstone for a long time to come.  Nick Williams seems to have his head screwed on right finally.   Love Altherr. 

Kingery is a top 20 prospect and should be up sometime this season.  And don't forget Roman Quinn is their possible future fourth outfielder/speed merchant if he can stay healthy.  Moniak is a top hitting prospect.  Sixto is a top pitching prospect.  Baseball will be fun again in Philly starting this coming year though it might take to next before they contend or make the playoffs.  But this young team is exciting.

They will need Sixto up early plus a free agent or trade pitcher to make the playoffs yearly but their hitters are pretty much all there in house.

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2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I really don't see it. But ok guys, I get it. You all have a boner for the Phillies. 

Not a Phillies fan by any stretch (Giants fun...ugggg).  

 

I just don't see how you can't draw a parallel with what the Cubs and Astros did.  What are we all missing?  They have prospects that are just as highly thought of (at the same point of development), only thing they might be missing is the super GM?

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3 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I really don't see it. But ok guys, I get it. You all have a boner for the Phillies. 

 

It's not that we have a boner, just see what 2-3 prospects making for good starters can do for a team, on top of that you add free agents. Cubs basically had Rizzo and Bryant, Baez and Russell were nice pieces but didn't really push them to a championship. Lester was signed, Arietta was traded for, Chapman was traded for.

 

Just need a few  guys to really break out and make some good signings and trades.  Braves and Phillies could be serious contenders in 2019, Padres maybe 2020. 

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6 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I really don't see it. But ok guys, I get it. You all have a boner for the Phillies. 

 

If you can't see the parallels between the Cubs, Astros, and Phillies building around a young, cost-controlled core and only making a big splash to sign elite FAs when those elite FAs will make the difference between contending and winning a title, I don't know what to tell you.  Yes, I'm a Phillies fan, but many prominent MLB writers have noted that this is the template for winning a title now.  I don't see how it's even controversial at this point.

 

Nobody's saying Scott Kingery is Jose Altuve, or that Aaron Altherr is George Springer, or that Aaron Nola is Dallas Keuchel.  But Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel weren't Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel when they first came up, either.  The Phillies will still probably have a record south of .500 in 2018, just like the Astros did in 2014 with all of those players taking steps forward but not yet hitting their prime, but the hope is that in 2019, the core shows that they can take the next step forward, just as the Astros did in 2015 when all those guys were >4.5 WAR players.  That's when you think about trying to go get the big-money FAs that can put you over the top, and when those FAs want to join your team to be a part of it.

 

Maybe you're just missing the point here, which is that this conversation is about 2019, not 2018?

 

Edited to add: wish I'd looked at the next page of comments to see that @svdude made my point much more succinctly.  Ah well.

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Man, I get it... I do. I understand that you guys see the Phils being good, but I just don't see why an elite player like Trout would sign with the Phillies. No one has made the point as to why. Like, honestly... if your only point is that they have a great young core, then it's weak. The Yankees have a great young core as well... As do the Braves, Astros... Why would he sign with the Phillies? Someone tell me why.

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Apparently Trout was a Phillies fan growing up? I still assume it will be more about who(among reasonably competitive teams) gives him the most ridiculous(read: fair) FA deal and less about soft factors.

 

Apart from that, there's really nothing special about the Phillies' rebuild.

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Just now, Rabbit Maranville said:

Apparently Trout was a Phillies fan growing up? I still assume it will be more about who(among reasonably competitive teams) gives him the most ridiculous(read: fair) FA deal and less about soft factors.

 

Apart from that, there's really nothing special about the Phillies' rebuild.

OK, but why is he being a fan a reason for him going? Like, that's what I'm getting at. Why would he skip on being on a contender like the Astros or something in the hopes of a Phillies rebuild working out?

 

Stamkos (NHL) was offered a ridiculously huge contract to be a Maple Leaf and play in Toronto (he grew up ~60 minutes from Toronto) and turned it down. He's a huge fan of the team, but wanted to try and win a cup so he stayed in Tampa who are and have been contenders for a few years.

 

This Phillies sports fan things is such a weak argument. 

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29 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

JD Martinez wants a $200 million dollar contract for a 30 year old OF who plays below average defense, Does he get that much? I doubt it considering what right handed power hitters with questionable defense got last year

If E5 was only able to get 4/80, no way JD gets 200, age aside. 

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J.A.M. is a slightly more productive and slightly younger(~ two years) version of Cespedes from last offseason. Cespedes got 4/110(27.5 MM AAV) with a full NTC.

 

6/180 for J.A.M. doesn't seem unreasonable. I suppose 7/200 wouldn't be too far out of line? I'd take the under on 200, though.

 

Additionally, I see him as a candidate for an opt out, which would lower the nominal value of any contract.

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1 hour ago, Rabbit Maranville said:

J.A.M. is a slightly more productive and slightly younger(~ two years) version of Cespedes from last offseason. Cespedes got 4/110(27.5 MM AAV) with a full NTC.

 

6/180 for J.A.M. doesn't seem unreasonable. I suppose 7/200 wouldn't be too far out of line? I'd take the under on 200, though.

 

Additionally, I see him as a candidate for an opt out, which would lower the nominal value of any contract.

 

EDITS: 1) JD not J.A.M. I had been reading the Jose Martinez outlook and confused the initials of the two. 2) Ok, didn't realize just how poorly JD graded out defensively. I would revise this to say that him and Cespedes are similarly productive. 

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On 11/6/2017 at 11:20 AM, The Czar said:

 

I don't think they will get him, but it makes a ton of sense to me.

 

They still have a lot of very solid players with windows that won't be open much longer.  They need a slugger that is ATT proof and he might be it.  I don't think it puts all of their eggs in one basket because they have a lot of money coming off the books.  Cain is $22 million coming off the books and I think they paid that stadium off which supposedly frees up a lot of money should they choose to spend it.  Not sure they will, but they aren't broke either.

 

They have to overpay offensive players to come there as FA and even then many won't because of that park.  Can you think of the last big name offensive player that signed there?  They know that FA isn't a game that they win at and for that reason, they have been much more active in trying to trade for guys instead or bringing up home grown talent.  The new GM stinks so far though and that talent well has gone very dry as the last several drafts have not been good.

 

I think trading for a guy like Stanton might be one of their only options to get better right away.

I don't see as many solid players as you do, perhaps. Also I think he has a full no-trade clause, and SF might be a tough sell coming off this last year, and going to a park that would suppess his #'s. 

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2 hours ago, zingzing said:

Don't think I see it discussed yet, but if wade Davis left the cubs, who closes? Edwards? Wilson? 

 

Also I doubt Jmart gets 200m but he will get 6 years. I'm assuming in the 170-180 range. 

A free agent or someone they trade for, probably. I can't see them going with CJ as the closer going into the season.

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Stanton has expressed wishes to play for a West Coast team. With a NTC in his contract and with the amount owed him yet he pretty well can dictate where he ends up. 

 

As for why Trout to the Phillies that is where he wants to end up. He also has a full NTC in his contract and has 3 years left at close to a 100m. There really doesn't need to be another reason except that is where he wants to play whether that makes sense to some people or not. 

 

Whether it works out for either player remains to be seen but both want to play close to where they grew up. 

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On 11/7/2017 at 10:38 PM, Light Tower Power said:

 

They also only have one person signed to a long-term guaranteed contract, Herrera (4 years 25 mil). I think this is the main point you are missing.

 

16 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Sorry, what does it matter if they have only one guy signed? Are you saying that they'll be spending a crap ton on FA? Does that automatically mean that they get better? Some FA signings are meh, some are good, some are great, some are terrible... It can be a crap shoot.

 

Well, sure... But if you're talking about winning, why would someone choose the Phillys right now? No one has really answered that. All I'm seeing is they have a lot of prospects... Unless a FA doesn't care about winning a WS title, what's the point in going to a team that's still building?

 

 

-Yes, financially the Phils are a dormant top 5 cap space team. They are well positioned to land one of the top 3 (Harper, Machado or Trout) to accelerate their rebuild.

 

 

-If you want to talk about winning. Maybe we should recognize the state of the NL East in two years:

 

5 - Miami - Has a horrendous farm and needs to dump payroll. 2019/20 outlook, not good.

 

4 - Nationals - They are about to lose Harper and will be trending down with their win to now aging core (Murphy, Zimmerman and Scherzer). They absolutely need Scherzer and Stratsburg to stay healthy going forward to have any chance. They pretty much gutted the system with their deals for Eaton and the Oakland relievers. They are in win now mode and will face the consequences after Harper leaves. 2019/20 outlook, not what it once was.

 

3 - Mets -  They are semi-interesting with their top end often injured pitching talent. They seem fairly poorly run both medically and financially as they appear to be still haunted by Madoff. Their farm is kind of thin now, so they just placed all their chips on an injury prone pitching core. 2019/20 outlook, suspect with a dose of health upside.
 

2 - Phils - Getting one of top 3 (Harper, Machado or Trout) would push them to top contenders to win going forward in this division. If you listen to most baseball heads that talk about their resurgence, it's the financial resources to accelerate the rebuild. 2019/20 outlook, interesting.

 

1 - Braves - They really invested in the years ahead and we will see how many of these high upside pitching prospects they can hit on. They have a real interesting collection of arms and depth overall in the minors. With both Acuna and Albies up the middle to go along with Freeman, they should be in the conversation going forward. 2019/20 outlook, even more interesting.

 

 

Now, why would someone choose the Phillies right now?

 

$$$$$$$$$$

 

How many teams can meet the market that might look like this:

-Harper: Half a Billion dollars (crazy, I know, but I think 500 million is a lock based on the reports I have read which limits his market to how many teams?).

 

-Machado: Prefer him to Harper because of the D (I think he best Stanton's contract and gets at least 350 mil on the open market).

 

-Trout: He is the last of the big 3 to hit the FA market and will be a few years older, but probably still gets 450 mil. If the LAD and NYY get the above two. Can they afford the double luxury tax for Trout? Doubtful, I think they are both out at this point and stage unless they pass on Harper/Machado. Now what does it matter that the Phils only have one person signed to a long-term contract? They are in position to land one of the top 3. Philly has one thing to offer that most can't. Large sums of guaranteed money.

 

-I think this is the big 3 market (10 teams):

Yanks - Short porch Harper.

LAD - Trout, they already have Turner at 3rd. I think they pass on Machado.

PHI - I think Machado makes the most sense. They could be at risk due to the ability of other teams to defer payments.

LAA - The Pujols contract and lack of pitching eliminates them.

CHC - Don't think ownership goes over the luxury tax, but they should be serious players. I expect most of their financial resources to go to the pitching side.

TEX - Still feeling the pain of the Prince Fielder contract. Trending in the wrong direction.

WSH - Should have some money with Werth coming off the books. I think they are on the outside looking in though.

HOU - Too many of their own stars will need to be locked up. Big market though and they could alter the landscape. But Correa, Altuve and Springer need some love too.

BOS - They seem reluctant to go over the luxury tax. Would any of these 3 change things?

SF - In the market for Stanton, so why not? Interesting market, crap hitting park to deter hitters though.

 

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The Phillies have a bright future but no brighter than 6-7 other teams right now. in fact they're probably near the bottom of that 6-8 team tier in terms of medium-long range outlook, IMO. 

 

The Yankees, Dodgers and Astros seem a cut above the rest in terms of being set up for the next 3-5 years. 

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17 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Man, I get it... I do. I understand that you guys see the Phils being good, but I just don't see why an elite player like Trout would sign with the Phillies. No one has made the point as to why. Like, honestly... if your only point is that they have a great young core, then it's weak. The Yankees have a great young core as well... As do the Braves, Astros... Why would he sign with the Phillies? Someone tell me why.

I think one person brought up trading for Trout.  I have no idea why.  (Yeah yeah home town hero, how often does that really happen).  I'm high on the Phils because of their home grown talent.  They will have to flip some for another Nola grade pitcher but hey if Eichhoff returns to his rookie year form and puts his sophomore slump behind him well when Sixto arrives they got something going.

15 hours ago, azeri98 said:

JD Martinez wants a $200 million dollar contract for a 30 year old OF who plays below average defense, Does he get that much? I doubt it considering what right handed power hitters with questionable defense got last year

More like Scott Boras wants $200 million.  Did we really expect Boras to be anything but outrageous in his posturing?  JD will get less but will still end up the big winner this off season.

8 hours ago, Light Tower Power said:

-Yes, financially the Phils are a dormant top 5 cap space team. They are well positioned to land one of the top 3 (Harper, Machado or Trout) to accelerate their rebuild.

-If you want to talk about winning. Maybe we should recognize the state of the NL East in two years:

5 - Miami - Has a horrendous farm and needs to dump payroll. 2019/20 outlook, not good.

4 - Nationals - They are about to lose Harper and will be trending down with their win to now aging core (Murphy, Zimmerman and Scherzer). They absolutely need Scherzer and Stratsburg to stay healthy going forward to have any chance. They pretty much gutted the system with their deals for Eaton and the Oakland relievers. They are in win now mode and will face the consequences after Harper leaves. 2019/20 outlook, not what it once was.

3 - Mets -  They are semi-interesting with their top end often injured pitching talent. They seem fairly poorly run both medically and financially as they appear to be still haunted by Madoff. Their farm is kind of thin now, so they just placed all their chips on an injury prone pitching core. 2019/20 outlook, suspect with a dose of health upside.
2 - Phils - Getting one of top 3 (Harper, Machado or Trout) would push them to top contenders to win going forward in this division. If you listen to most baseball heads that talk about their resurgence, it's the financial resources to accelerate the rebuild. 2019/20 outlook, interesting.

1 - Braves - They really invested in the years ahead and we will see how many of these high upside pitching prospects they can hit on. They have a real interesting collection of arms and depth overall in the minors. With both Acuna and Albies up the middle to go along with Freeman, they should be in the conversation going forward. 2019/20 outlook, even more interesting.

Now, why would someone choose the Phillies right now?

$$$$$$$$$$

How many teams can meet the market that might look like this:

-Harper: Half a Billion dollars (crazy, I know, but I think 500 million is a lock based on the reports I have read which limits his market to how many teams?).

-Machado: Prefer him to Harper because of the D (I think he best Stanton's contract and gets at least 350 mil on the open market).

-Trout: He is the last of the big 3 to hit the FA market and will be a few years older, but probably still gets 450 mil. If the LAD and NYY get the above two. Can they afford the double luxury tax for Trout? Doubtful, I think they are both out at this point and stage unless they pass on Harper/Machado. Now what does it matter that the Phils only have one person signed to a long-term contract? They are in position to land one of the top 3. Philly has one thing to offer that most can't. Large sums of guaranteed money.

-I think this is the big 3 market (10 teams):

Yanks - Short porch Harper.

LAD - Trout, they already have Turner at 3rd. I think they pass on Machado.

PHI - I think Machado makes the most sense. They could be at risk due to the ability of other teams to defer payments.

LAA - The Pujols contract and lack of pitching eliminates them.

CHC - Don't think ownership goes over the luxury tax, but they should be serious players. I expect most of their financial resources to go to the pitching side.

TEX - Still feeling the pain of the Prince Fielder contract. Trending in the wrong direction.

WSH - Should have some money with Werth coming off the books. I think they are on the outside looking in though.

HOU - Too many of their own stars will need to be locked up. Big market though and they could alter the landscape. But Correa, Altuve and Springer need some love too.

BOS - They seem reluctant to go over the luxury tax. Would any of these 3 change things?

SF - In the market for Stanton, so why not? Interesting market, crap hitting park to deter hitters though.

 

I really don't know why Trout is being discussed three years out.  The Angels just re-signed Justin Upton extending his multi-year contract.  They are said to be the biggest contender for The Moose.  They have no intention of trading away Trout if they are adding and/or have added these two guys to the team.  They are all in at this point.

I agree Machado makes the most sense for the Phillies next year OUTSIDE OF PITCHING.  But they probably could afford Machado plus at least a middle of the rotation guy.

I like Atlanta too but I think the Phillies have the money and extra prospects to flip for pitching and the Braves have young pitching prospects to flip.  I think the Phillies will come out ahead of Atlanta by a nose but these two teams along with the White Sox are in after burner drive rebuild modes.  All three will be contenders sooner than most fans will think.

As for my Red Sox, John Henry is getting tired of bloated contracts that blow up into albatrosses around his neck.  I think he would be willing to go over the luxury tax if he believes the deal makes sense for the club aka going after both Eric Hosmer (only 28, gold gloves and good power for Fenway with the internal options not in Hosmer's league) and Eduard Nunez (who will have to play a lot of 2B with Pedroia's knees being a major issue plus work as utility back-up at both SS and 3B as well) this off season. 

Hanley's salary will be gone after next year so this year would be the biggest bump over the luxury tax though they still would be over it in future years but not to the same degree. Any other moves will be about pitching for this season and into the future I believe.

And the horrible Pedroia through 2021 contract will eat away money for a long time too. 

Don't even want to think about David Price's contract.  The Red Sox only hope is that he comes back and has a good season in 2018 then takes his player's option walk away at the end of 2018 and becomes a FA again.  Not likely though.  He won't get that kind of contract as a FA ever again.  OTOH he hates playing in Boston -- can't handle the insane mad house pressure that is east coast ball -- so maybe his emotions will take over and he will walk.

Yeah talk radio in Boston is pushing for Stanton big time but why?  He would cost the club Benintendi for sure or maybe even Betts in return plus a super bloated contract on one of the most injury prone players in major league baseball.  He can't steal, his fielding isn't that good compared to Benintendi (a natural center-fielder) or Betts and his gold glove.  It would be a horrible deal for the Red Sox.  Just the kind of deal the Boston sports talk show moron hosts love to push then sits back and criticize the stupid move for years to come.

BTW I think Rusney Castillo is signed through the first landing on Mars or something.  But he isn't getting out of AAA ever.  His salary doesn't count against the luxury tax as long as he remains down on the farm where he remains the highest paid career AAA player ever.  Also he never turned out to be major league worthy so not a hard call.  But his contract won't be up until men land of Mars.

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On 11/8/2017 at 5:10 PM, azeri98 said:

JD Martinez wants a $200 million dollar contract for a 30 year old OF who plays below average defense, Does he get that much? I doubt it considering what right handed power hitters with questionable defense got last year

Boras first asked for 15 years /1 Billion

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On 11/7/2017 at 7:53 PM, jb_power said:

 

Nobody said they were going to be great.  trending upwards <> great

 

 

On 11/8/2017 at 8:07 AM, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

I really don't see it. But ok guys, I get it. You all have a boner for the Phillies. 

 

 

No we don't....we just see them trending upwards. Its actually pretty simple and not complicate. 

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On 11/8/2017 at 2:33 PM, tonycpsu said:

 

If you can't see the parallels between the Cubs, Astros, and Phillies building around a young, cost-controlled core and only making a big splash to sign elite FAs when those elite FAs will make the difference between contending and winning a title, I don't know what to tell you.  Yes, I'm a Phillies fan, but many prominent MLB writers have noted that this is the template for winning a title now.  I don't see how it's even controversial at this point.

 

Nobody's saying Scott Kingery is Jose Altuve, or that Aaron Altherr is George Springer, or that Aaron Nola is Dallas Keuchel.  But Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel weren't Altuve, Springer, and Keuchel when they first came up, either.  The Phillies will still probably have a record south of .500 in 2018, just like the Astros did in 2014 with all of those players taking steps forward but not yet hitting their prime, but the hope is that in 2019, the core shows that they can take the next step forward, just as the Astros did in 2015 when all those guys were >4.5 WAR players.  That's when you think about trying to go get the big-money FAs that can put you over the top, and when those FAs want to join your team to be a part of it.

 

Maybe you're just missing the point here, which is that this conversation is about 2019, not 2018?

 

Edited to add: wish I'd looked at the next page of comments to see that @svdude made my point much more succinctly.  Ah well.

 

 

tony, well said. well fooking said.

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