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Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook


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Heading into his age 25 season. I think it’s fair to look at his 162 game average after 3 1/2 season. 

 

.292/111/25/99/26

 

If you’re worried about him hitting those counting stats because of a worse lineup, it’s important to point out that last season he exceeded those RBI, while fell short in runs. 210 runs + RBI seems fair. 

 

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Could you imagine if he got the 20-30 basehits that his xAVG suggested he should have had ? 

 

He would have likely replicated his 2016 season (better BA, R, SB, RBI #s). 

 

What tends to happen to players with his kind of peripherals is that they rebound harder .. next year he's going to get a ton of luck and hit .330+ 

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

If Tommy Pham repeats for a full season, could have similar numbers outside of ROUND 5

Insane. Or even J-Ram with more steals? Like... so many guys out there right now who can give you a great combo of SB/HR while hitting for a good average. Gone are the days of  one trick-ponies winning leagues... mostly.

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Average exit velocity has been trending down for 2 years now. Down to 88.5 after it topped out at 90.1 in 2015.

 

Xstats.org did have him pegged for a .298 xAVG but also only had him at 21 xHR. And he had a lot of RBI luck this season too which kept a simply disappointing season from looking quite a bit worse. 

 

I think he'll adjust and rebound to a degree next year, but I wouldn't spend a top-5 pick on him. End of the first round is where I'd target him given the exit velocity trend and the lack of power he has (despite a fortunate 2016 in the power department). 

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8 hours ago, absknicks said:

Average exit velocity has been trending down for 2 years now. Down to 88.5 after it topped out at 90.1 in 2015.

 

Xstats.org did have him pegged for a .298 xAVG but also only had him at 21 xHR. And he had a lot of RBI luck this season too which kept a simply disappointing season from looking quite a bit worse. 

Explain.

 

His exit velocity in 2017 was still a degree higher than the MLB average.

 

Also, let's be real: Did anyone really expect him to be a consistent 30HR hitter? I didn't. I've always expected 20-25HR with 20-30SB. Dude is small, plays in a park with a giant wall.

 

Here's his 3 season, 152 game average:

24HR

105R

97RBI

24SB

.291BA

 

That's some solid production. Yeah, maybe not top 5 but if he wound up with say 100RBO and 110R, 30SB... pushes that rank way up.

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What makes that 3 year average top 5 worthy is the degree of certainty for it to happen. Betts has one of the highest floors in the league. Given his youth/durability/track record/lineup quality/ and skill set he is as near certainty for a .290/20/20/100/100 season as their is in the league. He's still low enough on the age curve where he might still have some untapped potential as well.

 

No way he should be falling outside of the top 5 in ADP, but he likely will, providing a nice discount at the back end of the 1st round.

 

 

 

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On 10/28/2017 at 11:32 AM, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Man, imagine if this guy goes 25HR/30SB with 215RBI/R and hitting over .300 while being drafted outside the top 5 or 6?

yea, thats tommy pham and he wont go in top 50 :)

 

brock- damn you wizard

Edited by jfazz23
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3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

yea, thats tommy pham and he wont go in top 50 :)

 

brock- damn you wizard

The thing is we don't know what Pham will do, but it's pretty much a lock Betts does in and around those numbers. His floor is real high, main reason he should be drafted high.

 

But I hear you. HR/SB combos aren't as rare anymore.

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On 10/29/2017 at 8:59 AM, EmbargoLifted said:

What makes that 3 year average top 5 worthy is the degree of certainty for it to happen. Betts has one of the highest floors in the league. Given his youth/durability/track record/lineup quality/ and skill set he is as near certainty for a .290/20/20/100/100 season as their is in the league. He's still low enough on the age curve where he might still have some untapped potential as well.

 

No way he should be falling outside of the top 5 in ADP, but he likely will, providing a nice discount at the back end of the 1st round.

 

there are enough surefire studs-- and Mookie showed enough inconsistency-- that I couldn't take him top-5.

Having said that, I think last year was his absolute floor... and if that statline was his floor... holy moly what a fantasy asset. 

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I believe it was ESPN that reported late in the season that his thumb had been bothering him for much of the second half. I don’t know how much of his struggles were attributed to that, and I’m probably not going to take him in the top 5, but I’d take him shortly thereafter in hopes of a healthy bounce back in power and average. His first half numbers weren’t far off from what we expected. 

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Mookster wasn't a big power hitter in the minors.

 

he wasn't a bg power hitter in 2015.

 

he wasn't a big power hitter in 2017 (24 Hrs in a juiced up year, isn't so great).

 

His thumb hurt?  Well he played almost the full season.  He's actually been consistently healthy.  But imagine what Trout and Harpers numbers would have been had they stayed healthy.  Imagine if you paid 50 at auction last year when you could have paid 50-55 for Trout and Trout stays healthy.  This was a very likely scenario.

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42 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

  But imagine what Trout and Harpers numbers would have been had they stayed healthy.  Imagine if you paid 50 at auction last year when you could have paid 50-55 for Trout and Trout stays healthy.  This was a very likely scenario.

 

You're right, this Mike Trout kid might have a future.

 

 

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Mookie finished as the 26th best player last season, hardly mediocrity. If you''re argument is that people should draft Mike Trout over Mookie Betts, I'm not sure that's much of a contribution. Mike Trout might go down as the best baseball player of all time. Mookie Betts is really good too. You are correct, he will not hit as many Home Runs as Harper or Trout.  He's not a big time power hitter, but he contributes in all categories and I think he'll probably have a decent bounce back next year if he stays healthy... and bouncing back from finishing 26th is a pretty good investment IMO. 

 

In terms of how much to pay for him at auction? That's league dependent. Betts is worth a good chunk, definitely less than Trout. In leagues where a dozen players go for more than 40, he should probably be one of them

 

 

 

Just now, KingJoffrey said:

 

I think the point is..don't use your #1 pick or spend more than 40 auction dollars on mediocrity.

 

 

This is great advice. 

 

 

 

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On 10/28/2017 at 8:34 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

If Tommy Pham repeats for a full season, could have similar numbers outside of ROUND 5

Do you really think Pham will go that late?  He finished as the 35th ranked player and that was ONLY in 444 ABs and 23rd based on average stats per game.  I've noticed with guys like Pollock and Blackmon after their breakouts that ranking systems were not shy at all about putting them high up in the rankings.  I think Pham will be the same way.

 

Given that he will probably be projected for 600-650 ABs next year, he will be ranked accordingly and will probably be ranked in the 30-45 range, which would put him as a potential 3rd-4th rounder.  Maybe trending upward after the first week or two of drafting.  The trend around fantasy baseball is that computer models and projection systems don't sleep on guys any more.  Pham is a guy I could have targeted in the 5th or 6th maybe 5-6 years ago because they seemed to use 3-year averages or do projections with an abacus.  It seems like they are way more bullish on guys now and will rank them accordingly.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Pham ranked late 2nd or early 3rd round next year tbh.  I don't want to see that, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

Anyway, back to Betts.  He was the #1 player in 2016 and many of his numbers were actually better like his BB%, while maintaining the same K%.  There is no way he sports a .268 BABIP again.  If I'm doing the projections, 2016 looks a lot more like where we should expect his numbers over 2017, and he will push that average back up to .300 with 25-25 on the combo numbers.

 

I think he gets ranked in the 6-8 range as guys won't know exactly where to put Judge and Giancarlo based in heavy K% numbers and streaky performances in the past.  I think those guys end up going later in the first.  Betts is a better play IMO.  If you wanted to go power upside instead, I wouldn't blame you.  It likely also depends on roto/h2h on some of that.

 

Goldschmidt, Trout, Altuve, Blackmon, and Arenado will likely be your top 5 and I think Betts ends up right there behind them. Then you will get the guys that you expect, but maybe slipped a little last year or were injured like Harper, Machado, Bryant, Donaldson, Rizzo.  Throw in a sure bet like Votto to be in that group as well. If guys wanted to go Turner that early or Correa or Lindor with the speed upside or young talent/position play, I wouldn't blame them, but I'd probably wait a little later in the first on them. Then I think you will see last year's surgers or the power guys like Judge, Stanton, Ramirez, Lindor, Ozuna, JD Martinez, etc.  That is likely your top 20 right there.

 

Anyway, without putting a definite 1-20 order on it, I think Betts fits squarely in that 6-8 tier heading into next season.  If you had a bunch of guys that surged from last year that you expected it from, I could see them bumping him into that 10-15 range, but given that so many of that middle tier in the first round like Machado, Bryant, Donaldson, etc. also under performed, I don't see how they will displace Betts in the pre-draft rankings.  As mentioned, last year's surgers like Judge and Stanton come with question marks about consistency, high K%'s and limited speed upside, so I don't think they would move him down in the rankings. I like guys like Jose Ramirez and Lindor, but I see them more in that 10-15 range as well.  I'm seeing guys talking about "sure bets."  Who are those guys?  Votto maybe?  I'd still rank Betts higher based on the steals. Lots of good performers in that middle first round from last year, but none of them had monster 2017 seasons. Because of that, I don't see the rankings shaking up all that much.

 

I'm sure that I'm missing a guy or two because I just did it quickly off the top of my head, but I think either way, Betts ends up ranked middle of that first round heading into drafts next year based on 2016 and 5X5 combo to fill up all categories.

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34 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Nice post, but I think Harper/Bryant are easy choices over Betts for me. And I'd take Judge over him, too, especially in OPS leagues. 

 

I think him, Harper and Bryant will be right there at 6-8.  Judge will be interesting.  When he slumped, he slumped hard this year.

 

Harper was better than Betts in AVG per game production, so can't fault you there.  Betts was better than Bryant in overall and AVG production each year though, but position eligibility plays up.  In sheer numbers, I'd have Betters higher based on those extra SBs and the fact I think he will hit for a better average next year.  I think those things will more than offset the 10 HRs+ Bryant gets on him.

 

Harper is like kryptonite to my teams.  Every time I've ever owned him, he has gone straight 2014 or 2016 on me.  I'm sure I'll own him again at some point, but man does he kill me every single time.  I can totally see why he will go 5th/6th in a lot of leagues next year though.  

 

Either way, I don't see Betts slipping out of that middle first round area, even after a down year.  Those guys are all great players.  It's a deep first round. I also wouldn't mind being at the back end and banking on Donaldson returning to MVP form and combining him with Stanton on the turn or something similar.  I think I'd rather draft at the back end next year over the front.

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23 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Mookie finished as the 26th best player last season, hardly mediocrity. If you''re argument is that people should draft Mike Trout over Mookie Betts, I'm not sure that's much of a contribution. Mike Trout might go down as the best baseball player of all time. Mookie Betts is really good too. You are correct, he will not hit as many Home Runs as Harper or Trout.  He's not a big time power hitter, but he contributes in all categories and I think he'll probably have a decent bounce back next year if he stays healthy... and bouncing back from finishing 26th is a pretty good investment IMO. 

 

In terms of how much to pay for him at auction? That's league dependent. Betts is worth a good chunk, definitely less than Trout. In leagues where a dozen players go for more than 40, he should probably be one of them

 

 

 

 

 

This is great advice. 

 

 

 

 

My argument is that it is better to reach for a truly elite OF and pay like 55 for Trout than it would be to spend 45 for Betts.

 

Last year people spent around $50 for him (or drafted him top 3) and got burned.  In none of my leagues did any of his owners crack the top 3 (money positions) and Betts was a good reason why.

 

 His reward after that is to still be the 5th or 6th overall pick?

 

That is just crazy to me.

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