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Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook


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12 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

I don't disagree here,  but the IFFB problem was there last year to drive that avg down.  And it's still there,  he's just currently pulling for so much power we don't notice it.  But those ate auto outs essentially,  can't ignore it

 

He's a flyball hitter, which leads to popouts for guys, but his plate discipline is elite (even better this year).  He isn't giving away a ton of outs via the K, so those popups aren't going to hurt the average that much because he is offsetting it.

 

I think that is why his career BABIP is .300ish instead of being higher, which is what you would expect out of a fast guy like him.  I would think a guy like Mookie would have a BABIP of .330ish because of the speed, but he's at .303 for his career.  That's fine, I factored that in when projecting him.  He's a flyball hitter and that is who he is. So basically, that was factored into his low BABIP. What he did last year was still way too low for what he should have been.

 

So, for perspective, his current rate is 16.7%.  If you look at last year's highest guys there, it would put him about Stanton, Bregman, Bautista,  Schoop.  The difference is that he is K'ing like 10-15% less than those guys, which will keep that average propped up higher than them.

 

I think it would be a huge problem if he was K'ing 20% of the time, as his average would drag down to the .250-.260 range.  But at his current contact rate, I still fully expect him to be up around  .290-.300 with a 10-12% contract rate, which is where I projected him.

 

Would I like to see less popups?  Absolutely.  But I think the difference here is talking about him hitting .320 vs. .300 for the season.  I still think .268 was a huge aberration given the numbers.   It's something to keep an eye on for sure, but I still think he will be close to .300 on the season when the dust settles.

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Here's a complete list of the games where Mookie has failed to record at least one Run, RBI, or SB:   5/9 5/1 (entered as a defensive replacement, only had 2 AB) 4/26 4/24

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Agreed. He's hitting harder this year,  flyballs up GB down.  Love my mookie.  But i figured I'd point out the one bugaboo. Those guys you listed are also a lot bigger than Mook, that wrist probably took more away last year than even we're giving credit to. 

 

I was essentially trying to point out the babip last year wasn't all bad luck. 

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Yea I'm not sure either. Went back and watched his last AB couldve tweaked something on the double. Saw him mouth something to the third base coach looked to the effect of "I'm fine". Hopefully it's just precautionary measures 

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8 minutes ago, Monkeyman74 said:

Weekly league, ya'll rolling Mookie out?

 

Yes, they said he'd be starting if the red sox played today.

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If I were in a weekly league I would play him with a full week of games on the schedule. Last report says he'd be playing if it were Sept/Oct. I can't see him sitting out on a Monday, if ya know what I mean.

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Bummer

 

Well I'm still going to start him in my weekly. Half a week of Mookie is better than a full week of replacement level.

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Alex Cora was on inside pitch today.  They're resting Mookie another day (he's available tonight) and they plan to start him tomorrow for the day game

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