Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook


Message added by tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

Recommended Posts

On 12/7/2017 at 1:14 PM, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Makes me laugh how some guys (not you) wrote Harper off after his bad year, but are willing to say Betts is OK.

 

 

Mookie's "bad year" got him 6th in AL MVP.  8th most points for an offensive player, in most yahoo points leagues   I hope he has an equally "bad year" next year.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 607
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Here's a complete list of the games where Mookie has failed to record at least one Run, RBI, or SB:   5/9 5/1 (entered as a defensive replacement, only had 2 AB) 4/26 4/24

Posted Images

1 minute ago, rich22 said:

 

 

Mookie's "bad year" got him 6th in AL MVP.  8th most points for an offensive player, in most yahoo points leagues   I hope he has an equally "bad year" next year.

 

I think most are hoping for better. .260/20/20 is great. But it isn't a first rounder. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

Mookie's "bad year" got him 6th in AL MVP.  8th most points for an offensive player, in most yahoo points leagues   I hope he has an equally "bad year" next year.

Ok, so you're taking that quote out of context, so I'll fill you in.

 

There was a debate about how Mookie went 9th overall in the first RW draft (I took him) and I couldn't believe people passed on him. People were crazy to pass on him because of the very reasons you posted. Love me some Mookie.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I think most are hoping for better. .260/20/20 is great. But it isn't a first rounder. 

 

 

For a points league it is.   101 runs   102 RBI   24/26    46 doubles   26 steals   As many walks as K's

 

I will take it.  I would like a higher BA.  .285 ish.  I will sign up for the rest

Edited by rich22
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Ok, so you're taking that quote out of context, so I'll fill you in.

 

There was a debate about how Mookie went 9th overall in the first RW draft (I took him) and I couldn't believe people passed on him. People were crazy to pass on him because of the very reasons you posted. Love me some Mookie.

  I think 9th is very reasonable

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

For a points league it is.   101 runs   102 RBI   24/26    46 doubles   26 steals   As many walks as K's

 

I will take it.  I would like a higher BA.  .285 ish.  I will sign up for the rest

 

 

Sure the lack of Ks make him a much much different player in a points league. If no league type is specified I'm obviously going to assume standard 5x5. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I think most are hoping for better. .260/20/20 is great. But it isn't a first rounder. 

it still blows my mind people take Betts before Blackmon in a redraft

Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not as if he is bad, but there's a difference between saying that and saying he is worthy of the 5th overall pick.

 

First off you have your usual suspects, Trout, Altuve, Goldy.

 

Then you could easily argue about taking one of the big 4 SPs like Kershaw, Klubes, Max or Sale.  

 

Then in the middle of the first for O you have Nolan, Correa, Turner, Blackmon and Harper.

 

Nolan can roll out of bed and be a top 5 player, his floor is that high.  Turner can give you 75 steals, Harper and Correa can carry a team if living to potential.  

 

Betts is an end of round 1 player at best.

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

It's not as if he is bad, but there's a difference between saying that and saying he is worthy of the 5th overall pick.

 

First off you have your usual suspects, Trout, Altuve, Goldy.

 

Then you could easily argue about taking one of the big 4 SPs like Kershaw, Klubes, Max or Sale.  

 

Then in the middle of the first for O you have Nolan, Correa, Turner, Blackmon and Harper.

 

Nolan can roll out of bed and be a top 5 player, his floor is that high.  Turner can give you 75 steals, Harper and Correa can carry a team if living to potential.  

 

Betts is an end of round 1 player at best.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I mean to your last point Betts can carry a team if living to potential. We're a year away from him being #1

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I mean to your last point Betts can carry a team if living to potential. We're a year away from him being #1

Red Sox have some holes to fill since Betts went #1. Some players had down years and a few are currently overrated for fantasy. Some very bad contracts aren't helping them either in making room for replacements.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Then you could easily argue about taking one of the big 4 SPs like Kershaw, Klubes, Max or Sale.  

 

Then in the middle of the first for O you have Nolan, Correa, Turner, Blackmon and Harper.

 

Nolan can roll out of bed and be a top 5 player, his floor is that high.  Turner can give you 75 steals, Harper and Correa can carry a team if living to potential.  

 

Betts is an end of round 1 player at best.

 

Injuries: Kershaw, Kluber, Max

Turner can give you 75 steals? Really? Has he done that yet? Dee Gordon can you give you 60 and he's a 2nd rounder.

Harper can't stay healthy.

Correa hasn't lived up to his potential yet, and it's awfully risky banking your first pick on a guy like that (as with Harper and Turner).

 

Betts shouldn't be going 9th overall in a redraft... It's stupid. He's going to hit 100R/100RBI again, 20+HR, 20+SB, and his average will be much higher than what he did last season. As @taobball said, there was an argument to be made that he was the #1 player in all of baseball in 2016. Now he's suddenly the 9-12 pick "at best"? Get outta here.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Injuries: Kershaw, Kluber, Max

Turner can give you 75 steals? Really? Has he done that yet? Dee Gordon can you give you 60 and he's a 2nd rounder.

Harper can't stay healthy.

Correa hasn't lived up to his potential yet, and it's awfully risky banking your first pick on a guy like that (as with Harper and Turner).

 

Betts shouldn't be going 9th overall in a redraft... It's stupid. He's going to hit 100R/100RBI again, 20+HR, 20+SB, and his average will be much higher than what he did last season. As @taobball said, there was an argument to be made that he was the #1 player in all of baseball in 2016. Now he's suddenly the 9-12 pick "at best"? Get outta here.

 

Turner averages a steal every 10 plate appearances. 75 is a high projection, but it's reasonable. 

 

Harper has topped 145 games two of the last 3 years. I'll take that for an "injury prone" guy. 

 

Correa has lived up to his potential. Don't let the end of year stats distract you from the fact he didn't even play 110 games. Dude was on pace for 35 homers and a .315 batting average (add on 120 RBI and 120 runs to boot). As a 22 year old. Guys a stud. 


Betts at 9 is about right for me. Too high for people who really look at last year, especially the advanced metics (pop ups, doesn't go oppo, quality of contact, etc), too low for people who buy into that correction coming about, even if it means he needs to adjust at the plate. 

 

I got Trout, Altuve, Trea, Goldy, Blackmon, Arenado as my top 6. Then I love guys like Bryant, Correa, Ramirez, Betts, Harper in my next tier. Any of them have the potential for #1 overall, but have just a few questions about them the first 6 don't. So, Betts is in my top 11, but the bottom half of it. I can see him going above or below any of those guys and not having too much of an issue wtih it. That's still leaving out some really good hitters, like Freeman, Donaldson, and Stanton. 

 

It comes down to what you favor : a 3 year average, last season, or advanced metrics. Two of them are faults against Mookie. 


No reason to get outta here. Stanton was the #1 player in both of my leagues this past year and wouldn't be a first round draft pick. The reason he (Betts) has dropped to the late first is because of his hard regression in 2017. 

To be clear : I love Mookie. I think he rebounds and is a .290 hitter with 25 homers and 25 stolen bases. That's big time. But so is a .300 batting Kris Bryant with 35 homers and 8-10 SB. Or a .310 hitting, 22 hr, 15-20 stolen base Jose Second-Base-Eligible Ramirez. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

Turner averages a steal every 10 plate appearances. 75 is a high projection, but it's reasonable. 

 

Harper has topped 145 games two of the last 3 years. I'll take that for an "injury prone" guy. 

 

Correa has lived up to his potential. Don't let the end of year stats distract you from the fact he didn't even play 110 games. Dude was on pace for 35 homers and a .315 batting average (add on 120 RBI and 120 runs to boot). As a 22 year old. Guys a stud. 


Betts at 9 is about right for me. Too high for people who really look at last year, especially the advanced metics (pop ups, doesn't go oppo, quality of contact, etc), too low for people who buy into that correction coming about, even if it means he needs to adjust at the plate. 

 

I got Trout, Altuve, Trea, Goldy, Blackmon, Arenado as my top 6. Then I love guys like Bryant, Correa, Ramirez, Betts, Harper in my next tier. Any of them have the potential for #1 overall, but have just a few questions about them the first 6 don't. So, Betts is in my top 11, but the bottom half of it. I can see him going above or below any of those guys and not having too much of an issue wtih it. That's still leaving out some really good hitters, like Freeman, Donaldson, and Stanton. 

 

It comes down to what you favor : a 3 year average, last season, or advanced metrics. Two of them are faults against Mookie. 


No reason to get outta here. Stanton was the #1 player in both of my leagues this past year and wouldn't be a first round draft pick. The reason he (Betts) has dropped to the late first is because of his hard regression in 2017. 

To be clear : I love Mookie. I think he rebounds and is a .290 hitter with 25 homers and 25 stolen bases. That's big time. But so is a .300 batting Kris Bryant with 35 homers and 8-10 SB. Or a .310 hitting, 22 hr, 15-20 stolen base Jose Second-Base-Eligible Ramirez. 

Great points, but honestly power is a dime a dozen. I don't care about a 35HR guy when I can get a 35Hr guy at the back end of a draft. 

 

9th for Betts is wild, period. It's too late in the draft for a guy who could easily go 25/25 with a .300 average, 100/100 r/rbi totals. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Outside of Mike Trout, nobody is touching Betts 3 year split (2015-2017):

 

3 year totals: 315 R, 292 RBI, 73 SB, 73 HR, .292 BA

average: 105 R, 97 RBI, 24 HR, 24 SB, .292 BA

 

Add in the youth, durability, the red sox hitter friendly confines, that teams budget/ability to patch holes in the offense, and all of the other ancillary skills Betts brings to the table ... and nobody outside of Mike Trout is touching his floor.

 

In the first round FLOOR is everything. 

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

 

Turner can give you 75 steals? Really? Has he done that yet? Dee Gordon can you give you 60 and he's a 2nd rounder.

 

 

Don't knock the potential of Trea. And there's just a massive difference between Dee who is a black hole in two categories and Trea who is not.

Trea could get you 100 steals. "could" being a strong word involved here. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Outside of Mike Trout, nobody is touching Betts 3 year split (2015-2017):

 

3 year totals: 315 R, 292 RBI, 73 SB, 73 HR, .292 BA

average: 105 R, 97 RBI, 24 HR, 24 SB, .292 BA

 

Add in the youth, durability, the red sox hitter friendly confines, that teams budget/ability to patch holes in the offense, and all of the other ancillary skills Betts brings to the table ... and nobody outside of Mike Trout is touching his floor.

 

In the first round FLOOR is everything. 

 

 

 

Right but floor is a matter of perspective and evaluation. Personally I think there's a few guys with similar Floors, and it's also not fair to say Floor is "everything" because if a floor is negligible and someone has a higher ceiling substantially, are you really going with the floor?

 

Again, I'm not dropping Mookie very far, not outside the first by any means and probably not very far down at all, but his BA is a little concerning. A few of his contributing factors to that BA are a little concerning. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

It's not as if he is bad, but there's a difference between saying that and saying he is worthy of the 5th overall pick.

 

First off you have your usual suspects, Trout, Altuve, Goldy.

 

Then you could easily argue about taking one of the big 4 SPs like Kershaw, Klubes, Max or Sale.  

 

Then in the middle of the first for O you have Nolan, Correa, Turner, Blackmon and Harper.

 

Nolan can roll out of bed and be a top 5 player, his floor is that high.  Turner can give you 75 steals, Harper and Correa can carry a team if living to potential. 

 

Betts is an end of round 1 player at best.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first round is pretty deep this year. There's a lot of guys going in round 2 who I could see being justified as a round 1 pick.  Round 1 and 2 players have a smaller gap then I think I've ever seen before. A lot has to do with the power increase last few years.  A lot more people are hitting a lot of home runs and hitting a lot of home runs doesn't make you elite.  I think a back end round 1 pick looks more attractive this year than ever cause you potentially get 2 solid "first round potential guys"/ 

 

Arenado wasn't a top 5 player last year. I don't think implying top 5 as his floor is accurate.  He wasn't even top 10 last year.  Granted he's really really good.

 

"You could easily argue taking a top 4 pitcher over Betts"

 

Sure. You can easily argue a lot of things with this years top 2 rounds. Just saying "you could argue player X could outproduce Betts" isn't helpful. Joey Votto and LIndor could easily do better than Betts too. They could do better than the top 4 pitchers, Harper, and Blackmon too. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
Link to post
Share on other sites

just prorated Kevin Keirmeirs numbers to the same number of at bats as mookie betts

 

276  26 homers 67 rbi 96run 27sb

 

i think you can chalk rbi and runs to place in order/team to some degree.  i really dont think betts is a first rounder tbh

Edited by jfazz23
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

just prorated Kevin Keirmeirs numbers to the same number of at bats as mookie betts

 

276  26 homers 67 rbi 96run 27sb

 

i think you can chalk rbi and runs to place in order/team to some degree.  i really dont think betts is a first rounder tbh

Kevin Kiermaier has a lot of value as a fantasy player and wasn't sure I could get him as late as I did.  I feel really good about this pick.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

just prorated Kevin Keirmeirs numbers to the same number of at bats as mookie betts

 

276  26 homers 67 rbi 96run 27sb

 

i think you can chalk rbi and runs to place in order/team to some degree.  i really dont think betts is a first rounder tbh

 

The difference is Mookie had a terrible batted ball profile and still was in sniffing distance of that BA. If he makes even minor adjustments as an insanely talented hitter he's going to wipe the floor with KK. 

 

Again, he could pretty easily be the #1 player in fantasy IMO. Kiermaier's not doing that unless he decides to try and steal 45. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

The difference is Mookie had a terrible batted ball profile and still was in sniffing distance of that BA. If he makes even minor adjustments as an insanely talented hitter he's going to wipe the floor with KK. 

 

Again, he could pretty easily be the #1 player in fantasy IMO. Kiermaier's not doing that unless he decides to try and steal 45. 

yes, but didnt several of you mention mookie changed his approach?

and what if boston doesnt sign hosmer or JDM...is boston really that good of a lineup?

 

i am a mookie hater ill admit that and i just cant  see taking him over certain ppl

Edited by jfazz23
Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Great points, but honestly power is a dime a dozen. I don't care about a 35HR guy when I can get a 35Hr guy at the back end of a draft. 

 

9th for Betts is wild, period. It's too late in the draft for a guy who could easily go 25/25 with a .300 average, 100/100 r/rbi totals. 

 

You can also get a 20+ steal guy at the back end. 

the thing is, those 35 homers in the first don't come with a .240 batting average and 80 runs scored. They come with a .290+ BA and 100 runs scored. Not only that, the potential for Correa to swipe 10 is more than there. Same for Bryant. 

 

Again, Betts going 9th is all about preference. It's more than reasonable. Maybe not to you, but to many others it is. 


Arguing him at 9th is robbery is just splitting hairs. He's not a top 5 pick. After there, there's a whole tier of guys with Betts, any one of them can be argued to being more valuable than the other. 

At the end of the day, he's OF eligible only, which is a factor, and it will peg him down slightly because it's a position that's easier to compromise on later and address needs. 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

just prorated Kevin Keirmeirs numbers to the same number of at bats as mookie betts

 

276  26 homers 67 rbi 96run 27sb

 

i think you can chalk rbi and runs to place in order/team to some degree.  i really dont think betts is a first rounder tbh

 

One player had a career high BABIP, about 30 points higher than his normal BABIP of .301.

 

The other had a career low BABIP, 35 points lower than his career BABIP of .302.

 

One of these guys will hit close to .300 next season, the other will be lucky to hit .260.

 

If you could guarantee that Kiermaier could reach those numbers over a full season, he would be pushing up the draft board based on those counting stats.  That is a lot of the discussion we are having with Pham, who also hit those kinds of counting numbers. The problem is that those numbers were inflated by a career high batting average on balls in play and he is highly unlikely to hit close to those again.  That is where the projections and numbers come in to determine whether a player is legit or not.  Kiermaier's season looks more like career level production per game given his career high BABIP and HR/FB%.  Betts is oppo in that he was low in both areas and should bounce back.

 

 

Betts is an easy first rounder next season. The only question is whether he goes middle of first, or end of first.  That was likely his floor as far as production and you are comparing it with another players' ceiling.  That is exactly why Betts is a solid pick for the first round.  Barring injury, you can bank those counting stats and he is a positive contributor in every category.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...