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Mookie Betts 2018 Outlook


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Just now, jfazz23 said:

yes, but didnt several of you mention mookie changed his approach?

and what if boston doesnt sign hosmer or JDM...is boston really that good of a lineup?

 

i am a mookie hater ill admit that and i just cant  see taking him over certain ppl

 

Better than TB lol. 

 

And listen, I'm the least involved in the BABIP luck parade, but it's not as if Kiermaier has this immaculate profile that suggests he's suddenly turned into a .330+ BABIP player. He pops-up too. He pulls the ball quite a bit too. In order to get Kiermaier's BA to be over Mookie you need Kiermaier living to the absolute fullest of his batted ball potential, outscoring his xBABIP by a bit, and Mookie to have another year with a .260 BABIP, which I think is plausible if he doesn't make any adjustments, but is, to me, unlikely. 

 

For Kiermaier, who I have adored since before last year, hitting in the .270s is the upper-echelon of outcomes. He doesn't have the contact skills or the ridiculous batted balls of a like a Sano or Domingo to produce ridiculous BABIPs. Mookie's contact skills alone is what makes him a stone's throw away from being a .300 Hitter.

 

Contact is one of the hardest skills to grow and in my research has been the one that fewest players add or subtract for in immense ways. Mookie is elite. Kiermaier is pretty mediocre. And again, the batted ball profile of Kiermaier really isn't all that better. I don't have time to run the xBABIPs now but the BABIPs were 70 points different in 2017 and the xBABIP was probably within 10 points. 

 

Again, I do think Mookie probably got a *bit* unlucky even with all the bad batted balls. I think Mookie having the same season gets over .270. I think Mookie with minor adjustments gets to .295+, and if he reaches upside gets up towards .315+. You can't say that about Kiermaier. Without running numbers Kiermaier will probably wind up with a projection near .250. Mookie around .285 from me. 

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Here's a complete list of the games where Mookie has failed to record at least one Run, RBI, or SB:   5/9 5/1 (entered as a defensive replacement, only had 2 AB) 4/26 4/24

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15 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

yes, but didnt several of you mention mookie changed his approach?

and what if boston doesnt sign hosmer or JDM...is boston really that good of a lineup?

 

i am a mookie hater ill admit that and i just cant  see taking him over certain ppl

Do your projections.

 

Remove your bias.

 

Then you project and rank. 

 

If you can do projections for who you see as the first 20 players, then you see where to rank him.  If you can legitimately say, I think these 19 or so players will outproduce him, then you rank him accordingly.

 

I did my projections earlier in the thread and they match up pretty well with the steamer projections.  If he approaches those numbers, he will be a solid pick next season.  Unless you think those projections are wrong, then make your case on why.  

 

Steamer  .299-27-102-90-21

 

Do you think those are wrong?

 

Are there guys I like more?  Sure.  We all have guys we like.  But if he hits those numbers, I don't see 12 other guys (hitters, as I don't draft pitchers in the first) in the first round that will give you the same output.

Edited by The Czar
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20 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 


Arguing him at 9th is robbery is just splitting hairs. He's not a top 5 pick. After there, there's a whole tier of guys with Betts, any one of them can be argued to being more valuable than the other. 

 

 

Honestly I wouldn't bat my eye at Betts going 5th or 15th.  People will spend a lot of time arguing the minutia of who belongs where in the first round only to have BABIP or injury decide it anyway.  I'm not going to argue tooth or nail about any guy going over anyone in the first round after the first few picks. There's close to 20 guys who I think could have decent arguments for being a 1st rounder.

 

KK is a great under the radar add, but comparing him to Betts seems silly. If KK beats Betts this year, it will probably be injury related. Additionally, you can have both. It's not like passing on Betts guarantees you land KK at a good spot.   I took him in the mock draft, I'm pretty high on him too, but as like an OF3/4 with upside. He's never had a 400 AB in the majors. Betts has a better injury track record, better team, better power,  better walk and k rate. 

 

I think KK discussion should go in a KK thread. He doesn't have anything to do with Betts  any more than Beltre has to do with Arenado. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 hour ago, sngehl01 said:

 

You can also get a 20+ steal guy at the back end. 

the thing is, those 35 homers in the first don't come with a .240 batting average and 80 runs scored. They come with a .290+ BA and 100 runs scored. Not only that, the potential for Correa to swipe 10 is more than there. Same for Bryant. 

 

Again, Betts going 9th is all about preference. It's more than reasonable. Maybe not to you, but to many others it is. 


Arguing him at 9th is robbery is just splitting hairs. He's not a top 5 pick. After there, there's a whole tier of guys with Betts, any one of them can be argued to being more valuable than the other. 

At the end of the day, he's OF eligible only, which is a factor, and it will peg him down slightly because it's a position that's easier to compromise on later and address needs. 

Yeah ok I'm with you. Still think 9 is too far, but could see 7th. Which I guess then it's like... What am I even arguing? Haha. Great post.  

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There will be lots of arguments on players like Betts because of the depth of the top 15-20 players. It really is a very deep draft this year at the top. Its why having a later pick in a snake draft is looking like a good place to be, as well as waiting in auctions for the top 15 guys to go then try to get the last few of the elite tier at a discount. Betts rightfully deserves to be in this top tier and you can argue him as the 5th overall pick pretty easily. His worst season as a pro had him ranked 26 overall on Yahoo. I think the lineup concerns are a bit overstated as well. They may not have a star right now, but the lineup is very deep. Assuming Mookie is batting somewhere 1-3, he's going to have high quality hitters around him all year. It'd be nice if Red Sox could get a Hosmer or JD to get a big run producer but I'm not sure that's fully needed for Mookie to produce value.

 

While we may disagree on where his floor exactly is, we can all agree its very high compared to players around him. The underrated part of his value is that his ceiling also is sky high. Just look at his 2016 numbers. He walks more than he strikes out and has elite speed, there's very little reason to expect his average to stay so low.

 

Overall, you can't go wrong with him. Any argument that he shouldn't be in first round is just pointing out the depth of the top of the draft, but someone will have that 5th overall pick, and someone has to take Mookie eventually. That someone can easily argue Mookie over the rest, then someone else can argue 10 other players over Mookie.

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Just now, Sidearmer said:

There will be lots of arguments on players like Betts because of the depth of the top 15-20 players. It really is a very deep draft this year at the top. Its why having a later pick in a snake draft is looking like a good place to be, as well as waiting in auctions for the top 15 guys to go then try to get the last few of the elite tier at a discount. Betts rightfully deserves to be in this top tier and you can argue him as the 5th overall pick pretty easily. His worst season as a pro had him ranked 26 overall on Yahoo. I think the lineup concerns are a bit overstated as well. They may not have a star right now, but the lineup is very deep. Assuming Mookie is batting somewhere 1-3, he's going to have high quality hitters around him all year. It'd be nice if Red Sox could get a Hosmer or JD to get a big run producer but I'm not sure that's fully needed for Mookie to produce value.

 

While we may disagree on where his floor exactly is, we can all agree its very high compared to players around him. The underrated part of his value is that his ceiling also is sky high. Just look at his 2016 numbers. He walks more than he strikes out and has elite speed, there's very little reason to expect his average to stay so low.

 

Overall, you can't go wrong with him. Any argument that he shouldn't be in first round is just pointing out the depth of the top of the draft, but someone will have that 5th overall pick, and someone has to take Mookie eventually. That someone can easily argue Mookie over the rest, then someone else can argue 10 other players over Mookie.

 

I think is ultimately what we're dealing with here. We could argue whether or not Mookie deserves to be a top 5 or top 10 player but that may be a different argument than if I'd take him in the top 5 or top 10 because I feel like there's just a ton of special special players right now that can have strong arguments made. @jfazz23 makes the argument for Blackmon a lot, who no one would've put in the top 5 last year or anytime prior in his career, but for me right now I'm just of the belief that I'm taking Blackmon. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I think is ultimately what we're dealing with here. We could argue whether or not Mookie deserves to be a top 5 or top 10 player but that may be a different argument than if I'd take him in the top 5 or top 10 because I feel like there's just a ton of special special players right now that can have strong arguments made. @jfazz23 makes the argument for Blackmon a lot, who no one would've put in the top 5 last year or anytime prior in his career, but for me right now I'm just of the belief that I'm taking Blackmon. 

I'm a Mookie homer, like big time... But I'd take Blackmon over him 100%. A speedy, high BA guy in Coors? Sign me up! He's basically Betts with more power/less speed (last year anyway) in a stacked lineup playing way up the sky. Love that dude. 

 

Plus that beard he has/had is wicked.

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The biggest perception difference between Blackmon and Betts (one's batted ball profile added a ton of luck to his roto stats last year, and the other was on the wrong side of a lot of luck). The other big difference is that one is still on the upward swing of the age curve, while the other is already on the downward slope of it. 

 

The latter reason is HUGE, especially since a big chunk of their overall value is going to come down to SB upside. And the age curve is even way more unforgiving for base stealers. 

 

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted
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17 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

The biggest perception difference between Blackmon and Betts (one's batted ball profile added a ton of luck to his roto stats last year, and the other was on the wrong side of a lot of luck). The other big difference is that one is still on the upward swing of the age curve, while the other is already on the downward slope of it. 

 

The latter reason is HUGE, especially since a big chunk of their overall value is going to come down to SB upside. And the age curve is even way more unforgiving for base stealers. 

 

 

 

I'd argue both points strongly. For one, we've debated this many many times, but just saying "LUCK LUCK LUCK" is the LAZIEST fantasy baseball analysis on the planet earth. And then at 30 as a hitter... I think he's on the downward slope in terms of speed, but I think Blackmon is completely in his prime as a hitter. And I think there's AMPLE data to support that. 

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

I'd argue both points strongly. For one, we've debated this many many times, but just saying "LUCK LUCK LUCK" is the LAZIEST fantasy baseball analysis on the planet earth. And then at 30 as a hitter... I think he's on the downward slope in terms of speed, but I think Blackmon is completely in his prime as a hitter. And I think there's AMPLE data to support that. 

 

I agree, plus I don't think anyone is drafting Blackmon to steal more than the occasional base here and there. He had 14 steals last year and was still the 6th overall ranked player. If he goes down in that category, no one will be crushed.

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1 minute ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I agree, plus I don't think anyone is drafting Blackmon to steal more than the occasional base here and there. He had 14 steals last year and was still the 6th overall ranked player. If he goes down in that category, no one will be crushed.

 

And I also don't really believe Blackmon was lucky. I mean... freaking Coors man. I'm trying to not just go into my notes that I'm buildling for my rankings this year because I wouldn't get much done in my new rankings by just reposting stuff Ive done.... but Blackmon's split advancement is just super super legit. He learned how to adjust ot lefties in 2016, then he learned how to murder them in 2017. Even if he falls back a bit I don't think the skills just going to disappear. 

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41 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

And I also don't really believe Blackmon was lucky. I mean... freaking Coors man. I'm trying to not just go into my notes that I'm buildling for my rankings this year because I wouldn't get much done in my new rankings by just reposting stuff Ive done.... but Blackmon's split advancement is just super super legit. He learned how to adjust ot lefties in 2016, then he learned how to murder them in 2017. Even if he falls back a bit I don't think the skills just going to disappear. 

 

You can't use one season samples when it comes to splits .. especially since there's way fewer left handed pitchers. Most meaningful metrics don't become reliable until you hit the 500-600 plate appearance mark. 

 

exit velocity and launch angle take into account that Betts had a lot more popups last year and rightfully credits those as likely outs. STILL Betts exit velocity and launch angles on all of his contact suggested a BA closer to .300. 

 

also it still befuddles me how people haven't learned the value difference between a handful of SBs...with all else equal...a 25/20 season is far more valuable than a 25/15 season ... those 5 SBs add anywhere from $5-$10 in value difference depending on the scarcity of SBs that year.

 

add in the age difference (6 years) and the 25 year old betts is way more likely to maintain his elite 5 cat production (he's at an age where deterioration of skills is way less likely) which adds a lot more value to his floor, and we're discussing 2 players at the part of the draft where floor is vastly more important. 

 

betts is in my top 5 in standard mixed roto leagues based on his projections.. and will be on a lot of championship winning teams next season because of some poor BA luck in 2017. 

 

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6 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

You can't use one season samples when it comes to splits .. especially since there's way fewer left handed pitchers. Most meaningful metrics don't become reliable until you hit the 500-600 plate appearance mark. 

 

 

Maybe YOU can't. You're using an umbrella right here of what works for "most" players. What I personally try to do is look at every situation individually and not just look at everyone as being the same over three years. That works if players don't change or make adjustments for three years-- but most do, which is why the methodology is just terribly flawed. Who you are by year three is different than who you were in year one. 

 

So to be clear: your opinion on why Blackmon improved from 2015 to 2016 and then again from 2016 to 2017 is because both were random coincidences-- and that nothing can be said until he's done it for a THIRD year? 

 

If so, fine. But that's ABSURD to me. Take Segura as a great case. No numbers right now because I don't want to recreate my notes here-- but the difference between the rest of his career v. 2016/2017 is insane. His 2016 and 2017 are identical in a number of improvements. Your take on players says we have to ignore these things until they've done it for three consecutive years. That's silly. You're disavowing logic in favor of an overwhelming reliance on JUST using three year models. That's silly and not how baseball works. Baseball players chnage over the course of three years. 

 

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exit velocity and launch angle take into account that Betts had a lot more popups last year and rightfully credits those as likely outs. STILL Betts exit velocity and launch angles on all of his contact suggested a BA closer to .300. 

 

This is a statement with no evidence. Please explain further as to how you arrived at these numbers, because for someone outisde your head, these estimates seem completely random. 

 

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also it still befuddles me how people haven't learned the value difference between a handful of SBs...with all else equal...a 25/20 season is far more valuable than a 25/15 season ... those 5 SBs add anywhere from $5-$10 in value difference depending on the scarcity of SBs that year.

 

Sure. But I think Blackmon has more power. You aren't giving him any more power. You're giving them equivalent power. That's a problem to me. 

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add in the age difference (6 years) and the 25 year old betts is way more likely to maintain his elite 5 cat production (he's at an age where deterioration of skills is way less likely) which adds a lot more value to his floor, and we're discussing 2 players at the part of the draft where floor is vastly more important. 

 

 

Again, you keep using "Floor" as if it's a constant among all analysts and it's not. I think Blackmon has a spectacular Floor. If you disagree that's fine, but this isn't an argument about looking at players floors-- it comes down to the player analysis in and of itself. So that it doesn't seem like I'm throwing anything in your face-- I'll use calls we both got wrong last year. You seemed to think Rougned Odor had a pretty damn good floor. I thought Trevor Story had a damn good floor. The problem wasn't perception of FLOOR, but the entire ANALYSIS of itself. Focusing on floor is silly because it's just one aspect of player evaluation and you seem to treat them as mutually exclusive. My Floor for Blackmon will be higher than Betts because my player evaluation is better than of Betts'. That's player evaluation, not a simple logistics of floor. 

 

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betts is in my top 5 in standard mixed roto leagues .. and will be on a lot of championship winning teams next season because of a perceived deterioration of skills masked a typical studly 5 cat season.

 

Eh-- maybe. You really think a player going 8-10 is going to be this amazing value if he finishes 5th instead of 8th? 

 

And I also balk at the idea of "perceived deterioration." I've explained why I think there are some legitimate problems. There were legitimate problems with Mookie last year. I don't know where my "perception" is wrong on that: hitters who pull the ball, dont' use the opposite field, and have a butt-load of pop-ups typically do not provide good BABIPs. If you think this is going to change, that's one argument. But just to say that it is an illusion is another thing entirely. I even believe it's going to change to some extent-- I'm a BIG fan of Mookie as a talent-- but if you ignore the problems of last year that's what you're really doing-- IGNORING data, as opposed to looking at it critically and trying to come up with an opinion. 

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10 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Outside of Mike Trout, nobody is touching Betts 3 year split (2015-2017):

 

3 year totals: 315 R, 292 RBI, 73 SB, 73 HR, .292 BA

average: 105 R, 97 RBI, 24 HR, 24 SB, .292 BA

 

Add in the youth, durability, the red sox hitter friendly confines, that teams budget/ability to patch holes in the offense, and all of the other ancillary skills Betts brings to the table ... and nobody outside of Mike Trout is touching his floor.

 

In the first round FLOOR is everything. 

 

 

 

how can no one be touching his floor?

 

In 2017 he had a poor (for his rank) batting average of .264.  It's unlikely to repeat that poorly but is still a possible "floor".

 

The counting stats are unlikely to repeat at 100+/100+ unless the Red Sox do something about their offense.  This is admittedly a real possibility.  But I think people are forgetting the Red Sox were supernatural last year with runners on base.  His floor is along the lines of 85-90 Runs and 85-90 Rbis.

 

He never really showed a whole lot of power.  He hit 25+ Hrs once in 3 seasons and never hit a lot of Hrs in the Minor Leagues either.

 

The steals are where a lot of his value lies.  But I am not convinced that the ERA of the SB is completely over. There's a lot of good, young, multi-tool talent out there just either got hurt or didn't play or didn't run for a variety of reasons.  I don't see it being back to the 1980's or anything, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of a rebound in league numbers of SBs.

 

And if Sbs really are on the way to becoming the dinosaur, all the more reason to gamble on TT in the middle of the first round.

 

His floor is more along the lines of .265 90-20-90-25 which isn't bad, but not what I want with my first round pick.

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  • 1 month later...
On 12/13/2017 at 12:06 PM, The Czar said:

  

 

Steamer  .299-27-102-90-21

 

Do you think those are wrong?

 

 

 

I think Mookie is going to beat all four of your counting stat projections.  Not a sawx fan, just someone who see's a top tier player moving into his age 25 season who now has enough experience to out do his best year to date (2016:  31/113/122/26).

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36 minutes ago, unknownrotoguru said:

 

I think Mookie is going to beat all four of your counting stat projections.  Not a sawx fan, just someone who see's a top tier player moving into his age 25 season who now has enough experience to out do his best year to date (2016:  31/113/122/26).

 

Can't see him approaching 31 home runs again. XStats said he should've had 20 last year. Just doesn't have that type of power to make it a likely outcome. 

Edited by absknicks
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The wild card for me on his power is his thumb. Articles later in the year indicated that it bothered him for much of the second half, and he still wound up with 24 home runs despite a massive post-ASB drought that he didn't rebound from until September. I don't doubt that he could approach 30 again if healthy.

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  • 1 month later...

Just read that Betts will be leading off. What do you guys think that does to his overall numbers? I'm guessing it will bump his runs, drag down his RBI a bit, and possibly give him more SBAs. Maybe, lol. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

Just read that Betts will be leading off. What do you guys think that does to his overall numbers? I'm guessing it will bump his runs, drag down his RBI a bit, and possibly give him more SBAs. Maybe, lol. 

 

His best production has always been in the lead-off spot.  He performed far less well when they had him in the three slot because he was trying too hard to channel Ortiz.  So Mookie is in the best spot in the line-up again.  Massive comfort zone for him.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Is Betts potentially playing CF a thing this year?  With JBJ in RF?  Even if JBJ is in CF and Betts in RF is there a real possibility Betts qualifies as a CF?  Does JD Martinez play any outfield this year? If he does - would that be in RF, shifting Mookie to CF on those days? Who plays CF when JBJ gets a day off? Benintendi?

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