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Tommy Pham 2018 Outlook


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I'm not buying a breakout. There's a couple things that make me come to this conclusion, which, on their own are probably not worth noting, but combined together make me extremely cautious.

 

He spent an insanely long time in MiLB, especially Rookie/A ball. I do not know why that is, but red flag number one. 

 

He had one year with 17 HR, 10 years ago. Since then, in comparable numbers of at bats, his best number is 10. Yes, he hit 23 in the Majors last year. I don't buy he'll do it again. 

 

He does walk a lot, which is great. It shows he has a good sense of the strike zone. 

 

His BABIP was a staggering .368. Welcome to the land of correction in 2018. Which means that AVG drops significantly. Which means the SBs will be harder to come by. wOBA at .397. There's probably going to be a massive 50 point correction incoming... and why is that?

 

He hit 51.7% of his batted balls into the dirt last year. That was his groundball rate. That is so far above the league average it's insane, and yet he had a .368 BABIP? He's either the fastest man alive, or was very lucky. I'm going to bet on the latter. 

 

His Contact rate is ok, but really for a guy with this kind of hype around him, I'd like to see that about 5 points higher. Currently rocking a 79.9%. 

 

 

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I remember the thread last year, in May we were all questioning whether the breakout was for real. Someone on here posted some insightful numbers about Pham's hard hit % being among the best across MILB and MLB for years. It convinced me to hold Pham. I'll try to find those posts

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2 hours ago, CurvePirate814 said:

I'm not buying a breakout. There's a couple things that make me come to this conclusion, which, on their own are probably not worth noting, but combined together make me extremely cautious.

 

He spent an insanely long time in MiLB, especially Rookie/A ball. I do not know why that is, but red flag number one. 

 

He had one year with 17 HR, 10 years ago. Since then, in comparable numbers of at bats, his best number is 10. Yes, he hit 23 in the Majors last year. I don't buy he'll do it again. 

 

He does walk a lot, which is great. It shows he has a good sense of the strike zone. 

 

His BABIP was a staggering .368. Welcome to the land of correction in 2018. Which means that AVG drops significantly. Which means the SBs will be harder to come by. wOBA at .397. There's probably going to be a massive 50 point correction incoming... and why is that?

 

He hit 51.7% of his batted balls into the dirt last year. That was his groundball rate. That is so far above the league average it's insane, and yet he had a .368 BABIP? He's either the fastest man alive, or was very lucky. I'm going to bet on the latter. 

 

His Contact rate is ok, but really for a guy with this kind of hype around him, I'd like to see that about 5 points higher. Currently rocking a 79.9%. 

 

 

your homerun assessment is.... lacking, maybe? when a player jumps between multiple levels in a season, you can't hold it against him for not having a larger total of homeruns in any one level. i took his total PA from each season combined, divided by combined HR per respective season, and threw it in this ugly a** graph below to show how often he hit homeruns throughout his career (i.e., on average how many plate appearances did it take to hit a single homerun each year). just eyeballing it, it looks like a player who's growing into their power and trending upward (downward as it happens to be on the chart, a smaller number means more HR).

raw numbers if you're into that sort of thing:

year - HR / PA

2006 - 1 / 216
2007 - 2 / 303
2008 - 18 / 438
2009 - 8 / 380
2010 - 6 / 425
2011 - 5 / 166
2012 - 1 / 43
2013 - 7 / 301
2014 - 10 / 392
2015 - 11 / 369
2016 - 12 / 328
2017 - 27 / 636

the BABIP part of your statement is questionable, also. since 2013, over 10 different samples sizes (different levels/leagues), he's averaged a BABIP of .355. sure, the .370 from 2017 probably isn't going to be his normal, but you didn't really say why you think it will drop. it's pretty close to what his normal has been over the past five seasons, why do you think it should be terribly different in 2018? especially for a groundball guy with speed..

i completely agree with your concern over the GB rate.. it helps with the BABIP, but we're in the launch angle revolution where we want balls up!

i would like to see his contact% go up, but it's not terrible at 80%, as you stated. league average was 77.5% in 2017, so he's better than average. he was #66 overall in the MLB last season, around guys like hosmer, shaw, k.seager, yelich, machado, etc.

the whole eyesight thing is another interesting wrinkle... did it really turn him into a stud? who knows? i'm not convinced that he's the next mookie betts, but a poor man's mookie would be okay by me.

tommy_pham.png

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3 hours ago, CurvePirate814 said:

I'm not buying a breakout. There's a couple things that make me come to this conclusion, which, on their own are probably not worth noting, but combined together make me extremely cautious.

 

He spent an insanely long time in MiLB, especially Rookie/A ball. I do not know why that is, but red flag number one. 

 

He had one year with 17 HR, 10 years ago. Since then, in comparable numbers of at bats, his best number is 10. Yes, he hit 23 in the Majors last year. I don't buy he'll do it again. 

 

He does walk a lot, which is great. It shows he has a good sense of the strike zone. 

 

His BABIP was a staggering .368. Welcome to the land of correction in 2018. Which means that AVG drops significantly. Which means the SBs will be harder to come by. wOBA at .397. There's probably going to be a massive 50 point correction incoming... and why is that?

 

He hit 51.7% of his batted balls into the dirt last year. That was his groundball rate. That is so far above the league average it's insane, and yet he had a .368 BABIP? He's either the fastest man alive, or was very lucky. I'm going to bet on the latter. 

 

His Contact rate is ok, but really for a guy with this kind of hype around him, I'd like to see that about 5 points higher. Currently rocking a 79.9%. 

 

 

 

So you don't buy the eye surgery making the difference for him?

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3 minutes ago, RotoGenius said:

It's hard to justify taking many OFers before him! Low end OF1! 

Depends on what you consider OF1 I suppose.

 

Trout, Blackmon, Harper, Stanton, Betts, Judge, Martinez, Bryant, Bellinger,  Cruz, Springe, Hoskins, Ozuna. Benintendi, and maybe Buxton in 5X5 H2H leagues would all be before Pham in my opinion.

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1 minute ago, Low and Away said:

Depends on what you consider OF1 I suppose.

 

Trout, Blackmon, Harper, Stanton, Betts, Judge, Martinez, Bryant, Bellinger,  Cruz, Springe, Hoskins, Ozuna. Benintendi, and maybe Buxton in 5X5 H2H leagues would all be before Pham in my opinion.

I agree with the guys you listed there. 

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9 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

How about Yelich, Cespedes, Pollock and Khris Davis? I'd consider all those guys over him

yelich i agree is ahead, but not the other 3

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9 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

How about Yelich, Cespedes, Pollock and Khris Davis? I'd consider all those guys over him

 

Personally, I’d prefer Yelich and then Pham over the others. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 2/28/2018 at 6:39 PM, twoseemer said:

I think it is all about his eye sight, diagnosis and treatment.

Keratoconus. It is a disease of the cornea in which the collagen is weak and, without treatment, causes the cornea to bulge out like a hernia.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2758522-tommy-phams-vision-saving-surgery-sparks-miracle-mlb-superstar-breakout

 

I know someone with this degenerate eye disease ... the way they describe their vision is pretty crazy -- when looking at lights it looks like fireworks are going off right in front of your face and it completely wrecks your vision/perception. 

 

Surprised someone with this condition can put together the type of season he had last year. If he had normal eye sight he might be one of the best players in the game. 

 

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On 2/28/2018 at 7:06 PM, CurvePirate814 said:

I'm not buying a breakout. There's a couple things that make me come to this conclusion, which, on their own are probably not worth noting, but combined together make me extremely cautious.

 

He spent an insanely long time in MiLB, especially Rookie/A ball. I do not know why that is, but red flag number one. 

 

He had one year with 17 HR, 10 years ago. Since then, in comparable numbers of at bats, his best number is 10. Yes, he hit 23 in the Majors last year. I don't buy he'll do it again. 

 

He does walk a lot, which is great. It shows he has a good sense of the strike zone. 

 

His BABIP was a staggering .368. Welcome to the land of correction in 2018. Which means that AVG drops significantly. Which means the SBs will be harder to come by. wOBA at .397. There's probably going to be a massive 50 point correction incoming... and why is that?

 

He hit 51.7% of his batted balls into the dirt last year. That was his groundball rate. That is so far above the league average it's insane, and yet he had a .368 BABIP? He's either the fastest man alive, or was very lucky. I'm going to bet on the latter. 

 

His Contact rate is ok, but really for a guy with this kind of hype around him, I'd like to see that about 5 points higher. Currently rocking a 79.9%. 

 

 

This is why knowing player info is important.  The vision issues plus a coach that didn't believe kept him down.  

Also,  this isn't how HR projections really work.  

And babip is generally higher on GBs, not lower.  Esp if the guy has a little speed.  

 

I'm essentially ignoring Pham in drafts because I can't figure out how to handle the eye thing.  Like,  if it flares up does that essentially mean he's done?  I can handle an injury prone upside guy,  but mysterious eye stuff with experimental surgeries is too far out of my wheelhouse in round 4. But the skills are there

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Landed him last night at 6.5 in a 12 teamer, and was cursed by a few guys later that round.  That's about where you need to jump aboard if you want a seat on this train.

 

Ozuna, Marte, Khris Davis, Buxton were the 4 OFs preceding Pham. 

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1 hour ago, JFS179 said:

Landed him last night at 6.5 in a 12 teamer, and was cursed by a few guys later that round.  That's about where you need to jump aboard if you want a seat on this train.

 

Ozuna, Marte, Khris Davis, Buxton were the 4 OFs preceding Pham. 

Depending on league rules, even though I said above I don't buy last years break out totally, I like him better than Marte and Buxton, atleast, from that list. Ozuna is the only one I clearly like better. 

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1 hour ago, JFS179 said:

Landed him last night at 6.5 in a 12 teamer, and was cursed by a few guys later that round.  That's about where you need to jump aboard if you want a seat on this train.

 

Ozuna, Marte, Khris Davis, Buxton were the 4 OFs preceding Pham. 

I wanted him.  Wasn't happy you took him.  I was okay with Cutch dropping to 102 though after missing out on Pham there though.

 

Out of the drafts I have done so far, that was the latest I've seen him go.  He's varied between 42 as earliest 65 where you took him last night.

 

The guys after Pham last night were Pollock, Cain, Cespedes, Santana, and Merrifield over the next round and a half.

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