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Ozzie Albies 2018 Outlook


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8 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

He got absolutely robbed of an RBI double by Adam Eaton in LF, was an amazing catch.

Way to be a team player Eaton... :rolleyes: (I own Eaton and Albies) ;)

 

Seriously though, as I and others have said, he'll be fine.  It's basically been an every other game thing with him so far, and while Max obviously didn't have anywhere near his best stuff today, Ozzie still would have at least done something today if it wasn't for Eaton.

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Own Ozzie in a contracts keeper and was torn all offseason whether to promote him. But I decided to not 'start his clock' yet and drafted Scooter for MI instead. Thinking being if Scooter proves a fluke and Ozzie carrys on the same then I can always promote him at any point.

 

Pitchers were always bound to figure out his weaknesses and I think that's what's happening. But I'm watching him like a cyclops with a monacle as he could easily go off at any point, if he does I still might promote him this year.  His plate discipline was so good last year, it does seem a bit strange so far.

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15 minutes ago, swfcdan said:

Own Ozzie in a contracts keeper and was torn all offseason whether to promote him. But I decided to not 'start his clock' yet and drafted Scooter for MI instead. Thinking being if Scooter proves a fluke and Ozzie carrys on the same then I can always promote him at any point.

 

Pitchers were always bound to figure out his weaknesses and I think that's what's happening. But I'm watching him like a cyclops with a monacle as he could easily go off at any point, if he does I still might promote him this year.  His plate discipline was so good last year, it does seem a bit strange so far.


Let's look under the hood real quick:

->  6 Ks in 29 PAs.

-> Swung at 51.4% of pitches last year, 57.6% so far this year (small sample).

-> 8 grounders, 11 fly balls, 4 line drives.

-> .182 BABIP

 

None of that is remotely alarming.  He doesn't have any walks yet, so maybe it's fair to say he's been a bit more aggressive than usual.  He did boldly say he's going for 200 hits and 40 steals so maybe he's trying to force it a little.  But this is nowhere near enough evidence to claim that pitchers have figured out his weaknesses and that has prevented him from having success through SIX GAMES.

 

I know we all want to start drawing conclusions from what we've seen so far but we just haven't seen enough yet.

 

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27 minutes ago, DConny1 said:

7 XBH to start his season. No walks, but low K%. BABIP and therefor AVG looks low. Overall a great start.

 

Hopefully we start seeing some SB, but I agree, I'm not worried at all. The SB will come, the power wasn't fully guaranteed this early in his career.

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51 minutes ago, dannyusf said:

Super fun owning him. If he ever played for COL he would be a monster.

 

super happy owning him. 

 

Might be a good sell-high time. Three homers looks wonderful and maybe you can sell him as a 20-30 guy even though 66% of homers coming in Coors 

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9 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Might be a good sell-high time. Three homers looks wonderful and maybe you can sell him as a 20-30 guy even though 66% of homers coming in Coors 

Don't do it. 

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4 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

Don't do it. 

 

Respectfully disagree. You always sell if someone thinks a player is significantly better than you believe them to be (which is 10-30-.280 imo)

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4 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Respectfully disagree. You always sell if someone thinks a player is significantly better than you believe them to be (which is 10-30-.280 imo)

He's at 3 now, going 7-30 with a good average the rest of the way isn't outrageous. But I like him a lot. I see your point though 

 

edit: unless you're implying that the buying owner thinks he's a 20-30 guy, which I don't either. 

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7 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

He's at 3 now, going 7-30 with a good average the rest of the way isn't outrageous. But I like him a lot. I see your point though 

 

edit: unless you're implying that the buying owner thinks he's a 20-30 guy, which I don't either. 

 

Yes I meant there may be other managers that believe he is a 20-30 guy busting out. That's too ambitious for power to me and maybe you can capitalize.  

 

If if someone wants to pay for the 10-30-.280 stat line then I agree I'll hold and enjoy it myself. But I'm happy to let someone overpay!

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18 minutes ago, merlin401 said:

 

Respectfully disagree. You always sell if someone thinks a player is significantly better than you believe them to be (which is 10-30-.280 imo)

 

Dude hit 6 home runs in 217 AB's last season but you think he's only capable of 10 in a full season? 

 

I can guarantee barring injury he hits more than 10 home runs in 2018. 

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2 hours ago, Fielder1831 said:

I agree, I think the kid has 15 plus homers in him.

If we're all agreeing on .280ish average with 30 steals, then the difference between 10 an 15 HR is insignificant. It's the golden age of HR's 

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The power manifested last year and is a great sign that he can be more than just a rabbit. Now I want to see him getting on base more giving chances for steals, need to start taking some walks Ozzie. Also crazy that he has 7XBH and 3 singles so far, as a speed guy we actually want to see more singles but those will come.

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10 hours ago, merlin401 said:

 

Yes I meant there may be other managers that believe he is a 20-30 guy busting out. That's too ambitious for power to me and maybe you can capitalize.  

 

If if someone wants to pay for the 10-30-.280 stat line then I agree I'll hold and enjoy it myself. But I'm happy to let someone overpay!

 

He's listed as 5'9 160.  I doubt there are people out there thinking 30.  I think he's 25 max in a best season of career scenario.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

He's listed as 5'9 160.  I doubt there are people out there thinking 30.  I think he's 25 max in a best season of career scenario.

 

 

20-30 was HR-SB 

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2 minutes ago, Fielder1831 said:
Full Name Jose Carlos Altuve
Height 5-6
Weight 164

I will take 25 all day long. No comparison here but let's not act like small frames can't generate power.

Full Name Mookie Lynn Betts
Height 5-9
Weight 175

 

Ozzie's showed he will hit for decent power, thinking 15+HRs. I'm much more interested in the speed from him, that's most valuable nowadays. He doesn't seem like a "green light everytime" guy, but had good efficency last year 8/1. I can see 20 swipes but hope they green light him more so hopefully he can reach 30.

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7 minutes ago, Fielder1831 said:
Full Name Jose Carlos Altuve
Height 5-6
Weight 164

I will take 25 all day long. No comparison here but let's not act like small frames can't generate power.

Should have picked someone who has hit 25 homeruns as an example.  I love some Albies, but he isn't the same build as altuve, not as thick.

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23 minutes ago, Fielder1831 said:
Full Name Jose Carlos Altuve
Height 5-6
Weight 164

I will take 25 all day long. No comparison here but let's not act like small frames can't generate power.

 

 

14 minutes ago, Fielder1831 said:

Point wasn't to hit 25 diggers. His height weight were listed as to a reason to question the power ability. I have espn stats are easy to look up!

 

Your one example of an exception to smaller framed players hitting for power does not prove my argument false.

 

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