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Low Risk/High Reward Stashes & What A Good Bench Should Look Like


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I've always felt that real strength of a team lies within their depth. I’ve always subscribed to the idea that depth should optimally be a mixture of high floor players that can step in during bye weeks and are able to hold the fort when injuries inevitably arise, coupled with a few high upside stashes that could potentially pay off huge if/when opportunity and talent collide. When you analyze the teams that are winning your leagues the rosters almost always have a multitude of contributors who were picked off waivers. I’ve always observed that the highest scoring teams once the fantasy season concludes are usually some good draft picks and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of in season acquisitions. With the amount of injuries that occur during the season I can’t emphasize enough how vital depth is and important is it to be thinking about your bench. Even when your team feels unbeatable you can never predict when your stud QB will tear his ACL in practice. Being highly prepared also provides so much flexibility when trading when you’re deep at multiple positions. In leagues with what I consider subpar benches, I often find it difficult to find trades that don’t carry significant risk or even moves that make sense when taking into account team constructs.

 

Some food for thought when you’re looking at your waiver wire and tasked with the decision of high floor/low ceiling versus low floor/high upside players. We’ll use Robert Woods and Devontae Booker as an example. Woods has a defined role in a good offense and offers a fairly high ceiling. He’ll provide a quality piece of depth if you’re thin at WR. Where as Booker is a very talented player with an undefined role who isn’t playable right in any leagues. Booker is the type of stash that I feel will have a chance to be a feature player and is very talented, so sooner then later he will prove to be a very valuable piece. I make a concerted effort to have these types of guys stashed already even weeks befkre tbeyre trendy waiver adds that are also costly, not to mention costly and volatile. One of my main points is that by having quality depth it allows you to stash guys like that ahead of time and you’ll often find yourself ahead of the curve.

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9 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

I've always felt that real strength of a team lies within their depth. I’ve always subscribed to the idea that depth should optimally be a mixture of high floor players that can step in during bye weeks and are able to hold the fort when injuries inevitably arise, coupled with a few high upside stashes that could potentially pay off huge if/when opportunity and talent collide. When you analyze the teams that are winning your leagues the rosters almost always have a multitude of contributors who were picked off waivers. I’ve always observed that the highest scoring teams once the fantasy season concludes are usually some good draft picks and the rest of the team is mostly comprised of in season acquisitions. With the amount of injuries that occur during the season I can’t emphasize enough how vital depth is and important is it to be thinking about your bench. Even when your team feels unbeatable you can never predict when your stud QB will tear his ACL in practice. Being highly prepared also provides so much flexibility when trading when you’re deep at multiple positions. In leagues with what I consider subpar benches, I often find it difficult to find trades that don’t carry significant risk or even moves that make sense when taking into account team constructs.

 

Some food for thought when you’re looking at your waiver wire and tasked with the decision of high floor/low ceiling versus low floor/high upside players. We’ll use Robert Woods and Devontae Booker as an example. Woods has a defined role in a good offense and offers a fairly high ceiling. He’ll provide a quality piece of depth if you’re thin at WR. Where as Booker is a very talented player with an undefined role who isn’t playable right in any leagues. Booker is the type of stash that I feel will have a chance to be a feature player and is very talented, so sooner then later he will prove to be a very valuable piece. I make a concerted effort to have these types of guys stashed already even weeks befkre tbeyre trendy waiver adds that are also costly, not to mention costly and volatile. One of my main points is that by having quality depth it allows you to stash guys like that ahead of time and you’ll often find yourself ahead of the curve.

 

Woods is who he is. A high-floor, low ceiling player who just happened to cash in 2 touchdowns in a game where Goff threw for 4 and the Giants flat out sucked all game. The Rams put up 51 points.

 

The Broncos look horrendous, but I see your thinking in a sense that Booker has showed per--play effectiveness which can translate into points in a full-time role.

 

When it comes to stashes, it is certainly important to measure the player's talent level and his supporting cast. Corey Davis comes to mind as one of the best stashes out there.

 

At this point, bench spots need to be purged of decent players that are in very bad situations or just have a poor supporting class. Players like Ameer Abdullah, Giants RB's, and overall players that have produced meh numbers all year that have no chance of unlocking untapped ceiling.

 

Dropping these players may sting at first, but the feeling you get when you hit on picking up that waiver player that goes beyond all expectations is totally worth it.

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3 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

me personally wouldn’t want any part of the Broncos backfield....

 

give me derrick Henry instead 

I gotcha was more just trying to show the difference between high floor guys and high upside guys - also Henry likely isn’t on many WW’s.

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36 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

I gotcha was more just trying to show the difference between high floor guys and high upside guys - also Henry likely isn’t on many WW’s.

yea henry should be universally owned, nice post! I agree, the WW is where championships or at least playoff teams seperate from the pack. Every year after the season you will see something to the tune of this for several players  "XYZ player, widely undrafted and available, was on 67% of ESPN playoff teams."

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3 hours ago, CrastersCreep said:

I've always felt that real strength of a team lies within their depth.

(Snipped)

One of my main points is that by having quality depth it allows you to stash guys like that ahead of time and you’ll often find yourself ahead of the curve.

You make a number of good points (although maybe you shouldn't have mebtioned actual names of players as that seemed to distract people from your main topic ;) ). I want to see more strategical discussions like this.

 

One thing you don't mention is that your position in the league also somewhat defines how much risk you can take; if you're 7-1 you have more room for risk, than at 2-6.

 

But overall I strongly believe in the power of mediocrity to outgrow their potential and become solid; whereas I'm always wary of the supertalents who don't deliver. Talent is high risk; hard work gets results. I've done the math in similar situations and high floor is generally more rewarding than high ceiling.

 

One further topic (which should get the discussion heated):

- K/Def I want no bench spots (although it is defendable if you hold the clear league best on a bye)

- QB/TE I hold one bench spot each. Not everyone will agree, but I try to find one solid and one streamer until I'm satisfied with both. More makes no sense if only for the lack of depth in the league; less is too dangerous for my liking.

- WR/RB I need 2 bench spots; more injuries, more byes and also a lot more options on the waiver.

If the league has space on the bench beyond those 6, that also gives me more space to get creative.

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

You make a number of good points (although maybe you shouldn't have mebtioned actual names of players as that seemed to distract people from your main topic ;) ). I want to see more strategical discussions like this.

 

One thing you don't mention is that your position in the league also somewhat defines how much risk you can take; if you're 7-1 you have more room for risk, than at 2-6.

 

But overall I strongly believe in the power of mediocrity to outgrow their potential and become solid; whereas I'm always wary of the supertalents who don't deliver. Talent is high risk; hard work gets results. I've done the math in similar situations and high floor is generally more rewarding than high ceiling.

 

One further topic (which should get the discussion heated):

- K/Def I want no bench spots (although it is defendable if you hold the clear league best on a bye)

- QB/TE I hold one bench spot each. Not everyone will agree, but I try to find one solid and one streamer until I'm satisfied with both. More makes no sense if only for the lack of depth in the league; less is too dangerous for my liking.

- WR/RB I need 2 bench spots; more injuries, more byes and also a lot more options on the waiver.

If the league has space on the bench beyond those 6, that also gives me more space to get creative.

Good call on the strategic/philosophical talk.

My approach to rosters:

I tend to out-think myself, so ideally I want a team of clear starters and stashes.  Across 3 leagues (2 serious) I've had that this year for the most part, my only conundrum being the Alshon-Tate-Parker-(formerly Bryant-Davis carousel at WR in my standard. Left Alshon out this week, and it's just annoying.  Did hold K (Zuerlein) and D (Jags) through byes.

Try to grab bye fillers a week or two ahead based on match-up.

I might be too tempted by stashes. Generally go younger and look at where a player might fit into team more than trying to bet injury replacement.

Definitely like to have 1 TE. If you don't like juggling other positions, you'll hate doing it with TEs.

There are times it makes sense to roster 2 Ds beyond byes. I did it last year to keep one away from other teams.

 

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At this point of the season, playoff races should be coming into view, especially if you play divisions and sub 50% playoff pool.  I look at the teams I'll be playing and those I'll likely be fighting for a post-season spot.  When I'm making an add/drop decision, I try to factor in their potential needs as well as my own.  For example, I'm 7-2 in one league with potential weakness only at QB (Mariota).  I have 2 WR2s starting and 2 high/low WRs on the bench, but 7 RBs rostered even though the RBs+flex are set and forget (Zeke*, Hunt, Kamara... Rod Smith*, Ty Monty, Darkwa, Woodhead-IR).  So that's 3/14 roster spots that I'll potentially never use (if no trade), but are worth holding because they'd fill needs on possible competition.  This is, admittedly, a luxury.  It may change, but I'm certain that I'm not dropping Woodhead and then getting beat by him in playoffs.

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8 hours ago, NyjersInParis said:

At this point in the season, im comfortable  that i will make the playoffs. Im looking at the def i will start during the playoffs. Im currently stashing my second defense just for the playoff matchup

 

I'm doing this also.  I normally don't like carrying 2 defenses but currently have the Steelers and Lions and just can't bring myself to drop either.  I'm going to have a great matchup every week the rest of the way between those two.

 

Otherwise, agree with the post.  Always like to have a mix of players on my bench and love the higher upside guys when I can get them.

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I don't think a second QB is needed in 12 team, 1 QB leagues.  Draft, trade for, or acquire a guy on waivers you believe in, then stick with him.  Trying to guess right between the QB10 and the QB14 each week is an excercise in futility.

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funny, I was just thinking about team depth-- and how it's hugely undervalued.

Give me a well-balanced team over a top-heavy team any day.

 

(Cool story, incoming)

 

For example, in the league where I drafted David Johnson 1.02-- I've managed to fare well with a collection of solid players-- because depth allows you to play the matchups. Working the wire isn't just important.. it's crucial. Like Craster mentioned, most good teams are comprised of some draft picks that hit, and then a bunch of waiver work.

 

In my other league-- where Zeke and Hopkins carried me all year-- I've gone in a very different direction with my bench:

Due to Hopkins and Zeke's impending fantasy demise, I'm suddenly looking down the barrel of a very bleak playoff outlook. (In fact this week I'm projected to lose by 30+ points to our current #4 seed. Fun times!)

And in this type of scenario-- and in a league where the most attractive waiver players are Thomas Rawls, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Cole Beasley-- I've elected to stash lottery tickets instead of Robert Woods types.   By lottery tickets I mean David Johnson and Aaron Rodgers. 

What's the thinking? Well, if those two don't come back... oh well, I don't have the roster to advance in playoffs anyway.  But if they do... un-stoppable!

 

so.... I think what you do with your bench depends on your top talent... some teams need Marlon Mack flier upside... some need Rishard Matthews 4-point-floor... ideally it's probably some combination of both. 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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Weeks 1 -4 = Everyone of my bench stashes will have very high upside but lack a current opportunity. And every week scout all nfl games to see if someone has more upside than what is currently on your bench. 

 

Weeks 4-8 = Prepare for byes. Start analyzing snap counts. Find your Quarterback and monitor how many QB's are being rostered. Start to take a peek at the playoff schedules. 

 

Weeks 8-12 = Lock down your seed (if possible) and focus entirely on the playoffs. Add quarterbacks. 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

funny, I was just thinking about team depth-- and how it's hugely undervalued.

Give me a well-balanced team over a top-heavy team any day.

 

(Cool story, incoming)

 

For example, in the league where I drafted David Johnson 1.02-- I've managed to fare well with a collection of solid players-- because depth allows you to play the matchups. Working the wire isn't just important.. it's crucial. Like Craster mentioned, most good teams are comprised of some draft picks that hit, and then a bunch of waiver work.

 

In my other league-- where Zeke and Hopkins carried me all year-- I've gone in a very different direction with my bench:

Due to Hopkins and Zeke's impending fantasy demise, I'm suddenly looking down the barrel of a very bleak playoff outlook. (In fact this week I'm projected to lose by 30+ points to our current #4 seed. Fun times!)

And in this type of scenario-- and in a league where the most attractive waiver players are Thomas Rawls, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Cole Beasley-- I've elected to stash lottery tickets instead of Robert Woods types.   By lottery tickets I mean David Johnson and Aaron Rodgers. 

What's the thinking? Well, if those two don't come back... oh well, I don't have the roster to advance in playoffs anyway.  But if they do... un-stoppable!

 

so.... I think what you do with your bench depends on your top talent... some teams need Marlon Mack flier upside... some need Rishard Matthews 4-point-floor... ideally it's probably some combination of both. 

Well said.  My whole thing is a desire to avoid the exact scenario I've found myself in my standard league - trying to pick 2 or 3 from relatively identical players at WR (Alshon-Tate-Martavis-Parker).  It's finally settled a bit (dumped Bryant for Davis), but last week left Alshon out, because: Denver.  Luckily I won, but lost week 2 because had Tate instead of Parker.

That s*** just stresses me out.

I drafted well enough this year, but my lineup decisions are terrible...

Thus I prefer a top-heavy approach, though I do recognize that depth has value.

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57 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I don't think a second QB is needed in 12 team, 1 QB leagues.  Draft, trade for, or acquire a guy on waivers you believe in, then stick with him.  Trying to guess right between the QB10 and the QB14 each week is an excercise in futility.

 

Not sure I agree with this.  Drafting doesn't always work out how you planned, and acquiring a stud is often harder than it seems, and you have to hurt another area of your team.  

 

I find that picking between 2 mid-tier QB's is often easier than you described.  I've also found that some of my most successful seasons resulting in Championships came from streaming QB's.  Shoot, I started David freakin' Garrard in the 2011 Championship game... and won.  

 

Because IMO QB is very matchup dependent.  Would you rather start Drew Brees @ Baltimore in December, or start Goff/Palmer type at home against the Raiders/Titans/Packers etc?  

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Regarding QBs, I won it all in my main league in 2014 with bargain bin QBs Tony Romo and Big Ben.  They were both up and down that year, but I guessed correctly enough to muddle through.  Guessed right in the championship game, too, and would have lost if I had picked wrong.  (Romo was the correct choice).  So it can be done your way.  Best to gamble and hit on a Wentz or Goff, then stick with him imo.

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It's not my set way or anything, I've seen both work.  I had Brees in 07 or 08, whichever was his monster year, and lost in the first round of the playoffs after being by far the best team.  I just think you have to be willing to sit good players with terrible matchups when playoffs come.  

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I beg pardon for the CSB (maybe this requires its own thread?), but for the sake of draft+waiver roster construction I'll list my rosters in my two serious leagues.

Yahoo, 2-keeper (1st and 2nd round), .75ppr, 12 team

7-2, 2nd place by 20 points

QB: Mariota             [7.78]

RB: Zeke                  [keeper]

RB: Hunt                  [3.30]
WR: M. Thomas     [keeper, 2016 waiver]

WR: Parker              [5.54]

TE: Engram             [wk1 waiver]

FLX: Kamara           [preseason waiver]

K: Zeurlein               [waiver]

D: Jags                    [waiver]

BN: Davis [10.115], the rest waivers, IR: Woodhead [6.67]

So... it's about 50/50 draft/waiver

 

CBS, standard, redraft, 12-team/3-division/4-playoffs

5-4*, 2nd in division by 1 game

*Note: should be 6-3 and 1st in division but F'ed up week 3 and only played 7/9 players... lost by 1.8 to division leader who's 6-3

QB: Dak                  [10.1]

RB: Gurley              [1.12]

RB: Howard           [2.1]

WR: Alshon           [3.12]

WR: Parker            [7.12]

TE: ASJ                  [waiver]

FLX: Darkwa         [waiver]

K: Elliott                 [waiver]

D: Vikings              [waiver]

BN: Tate                [6.1]

BN: Reed               [5.12]

BN: 3 waivers

So... Tate and Darkwa are interchangeable at FLX, so anywhere from 55-67% draft picks in lineup

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Just now, SadFaceHappy said:

I beg pardon for the CSB (maybe this requires its own thread?), but for the sake of draft+waiver roster construction I'll list my rosters in my two serious leagues.

Yahoo, 2-keeper (1st and 2nd round), .75ppr, 12 team

7-2, 2nd place by 20 points

QB: Mariota             [7.78]

RB: Zeke                  [keeper]

RB: Hunt                  [3.30]
WR: M. Thomas     [keeper, 2016 waiver]

WR: Parker              [5.54]

TE: Engram             [wk1 waiver]

FLX: Kamara           [preseason waiver]

K: Zeurlein               [waiver]

D: Jags                    [waiver]

BN: Davis [10.115], the rest waivers, IR: Woodhead [6.67]

So... it's about 50/50 draft/waiver

 

CBS, standard, redraft, 12-team/3-division/4-playoffs

5-4*, 2nd in division by 1 game

*Note: should be 6-3 and 1st in division but F'ed up week 3 and only played 7/9 players... lost by 1.8 to division leader who's 6-3

QB: Dak                  [10.1]

RB: Gurley              [1.12]

RB: Howard           [2.1]

WR: Alshon           [3.12]

WR: Parker            [7.12]

TE: ASJ                  [waiver]

FLX: Darkwa         [waiver]

K: Elliott                 [waiver]

D: Vikings              [waiver]

BN: Tate                [6.1]

BN: Reed               [5.12]

BN: 3 waivers

So... Tate and Darkwa are interchangeable at FLX, so anywhere from 55-67% draft picks in lineup

Conclusions:

1.  Looks like teams will end up being majority waiver, but starting lineup should be around 50% drafted.  The Yahoo team has vital starters from waivers, but Kamara and Engram were basically draft picks because picked up so early (btw, much thanks to rotoworld forum for those two).  Counting them as draft picks, the starters would be 7/9 drafted.  In the CBS league, I held the #1 waiver too long before finally deciding I'd missed too many guys and blowing it on Darkwa just to be free.  Haven't gotten much outside the players drafted.

2.  Crushing the draft isn't necessary to have a good/successful team, as long as you crush 2 or 3 picks.  The CBS team is completely carried by Gurley (#1 RB) and Dak (#6QB), with Howard not too far behind (#7 RB).  Those 3 picks have made up for my misses in almost every other round.  The Yahoo team is similar, with Zeke, Hunt, and Kamara leading my league as a RB group, with Thomas as a steady 10-20 points.  That team is getting a lot from waiver pickups though, not even counting Kamara as a waiver.  Engram is set-and-forget TE, freeing up a bench spot, while Zeurlein and the Jags have had some huge games and are about 3ppg each above the next best at their positions.

3.  You've got to hit on waivers early.  I feel for all the DJ owners who got stuck with Kerwynn and the ARod owners who missed their chance at Watson... and now the Watson owners who had to go after guys like McCown or Goff.  I've been looking for a Mariota alternative, and it's just not there anymore - not even Brissett...

 

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4 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

  I've been looking for a Mariota alternative, and it's just not there anymore - not even Brissett...

 

 

Mariota had JAX, HOU, SEA, BAL. Absolutely brutal. Week 1 he was very good vs OAK, missed a good MIA matchup with injury, and was clearly not 100% vs CLE. Schedule opens up now. Solid QB1 ROS.

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6 hours ago, SpartanEric said:

I just think you have to be willing to sit good players with terrible matchups

This (and this goes all season long, not just in the play-offs).

 

Matchup is a bigger factor than home/away or weather or rest days, in my data. A good or bad matchup (meaning top/bottom 3-5, ecause the middle 24 teams are more or less averahe) can be a quite large boost or hit, especially on ypc and catch%.

 

This also obviously affects your bench. At the start of the season usually the patterns aren't that clear yet but by now we know which defense is a brick wall against the run, and which is swiss cheese against WRs, and I think it's statistically relevant enough to affect both your weekly lineups as well as choices for the bench you want in the play-offs. 

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(1) In one QB leagues, I don't stash a backup QB except for when my starting QB is on bye and if I like them. Otherwise, I am rolling with my QB that I like and trusting them. If I am streaming QBs for the season, maybe I consider jumping the gun and picking up the QB I want a week or two in advance, but that is rare. Find a QB that puts up points and just roll with them. 

 

(2) I never keep more than one TE on the team unless I have a high end TE and need to cover his bye. Just not worth wasting bench space. 

 

(3) Unless I have a top 3-5 DST and top 3 K, I am not worried about covering the team's bye. If I do have a top unit, I cover their bye with another team so that I can keep them.

 

(4) Rest of bench space is devoted to stashing RB and WR talent. Depends on league settings regarding scoring and whether PPR vs. standard vs. how many of each you start any given week regarding how you go about stashing RB and WR talent on your bench. I usually go RB heavy since they tend to be harder to find as the season goes on and with injuries and RBBC, I want to increase my chance of getting one I can use. However, if I am particularly deep at either RB or WR with starter quality already, I will decrease the bench stash for that position and go more heavily on the other position. 

 

(5) On who to stash. If I have room for ~3-4 RBs and ~3-4 WRs on the bench, I will use one spot for a player that has a fairly consistent role in their offense but that isn't some potential league winner incase one of my starters gets injured/suspended and can't play. That way I at least have someone I can plug in at RB or WR to give me some production for the week in an emergency situation. Obviously will have a production drop off from my starter, but at least I have someone that should at least produce something. Then the other 2-3 bench spots for that position go to players with high upside. I say high upside because I don't care about mediocre or low ceilings. I already have my starters + that one low ceiling bench spot player that I will depend on in case I need them for an emergency start. I want high upside/high ceiling players even if the chances of them hitting is low. That means players that have flashed, are on good offenses, that are very productive on limited touches and just need rational coaching to kick in so that they get more touches. I want players like those. I also look at teams with nice schedules in weeks 12-16 for that late season and playoff run. Things change week to week in football, but I want to try and get players that at least have what looks like positive schedules at this point.

 

(6) In the end it boils down to luck. So don't beat yourself up if you bench players don't amount to anything. But the fact that you are thinking about your bench players and trying to optimize them is at least giving yourself a better chance to get lucky. Even if it just changes it from a 50/50 to a 55/45 chance of you hitting on just one of your bench players working out. 

 

(7) Talent. Opportunity. Situation. The golden three point triangle of fantasy football. When in doubt about a player and whether you want them on your bench, go through those three variables and determine if they meet them. You probably want a player that has all 3 over a player that just has 1 of them. Opportunity is probably the most important variable (especially for RB). Then maybe talent if you think talent will eventually win out and that the coaches will see said talent and use rational coaching. We have enough data this late into the season that we know which teams have a positive situation (good offenses) that we know which teams to fade as the season goes on and which ones we want pieces of their offense. 

 

(8) Last point I think is worth thinking of, try not to get blindsided by bias regarding teams and how good or bad they are in real life. While a team might be terrible in real life or have that connotation, there can still be fantasy relevant production on that team, despite how bad they are. Don't worry where your production is coming from. Production is production whether on a good team or bad team, and whether in a close competitive game or in garbage time blow outs. 

Edited by burninglegs
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9 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I beg pardon for the CSB (maybe this requires its own thread?), but for the sake of draft+waiver roster construction I'll list my rosters in my two serious leagues.

Yahoo, 2-keeper (1st and 2nd round), .75ppr, 12 team

7-2, 2nd place by 20 points

QB: Mariota             [7.78]

RB: Zeke                  [keeper]

RB: Hunt                  [3.30]
WR: M. Thomas     [keeper, 2016 waiver]

WR: Parker              [5.54]

TE: Engram             [wk1 waiver]

FLX: Kamara           [preseason waiver]

K: Zeurlein               [waiver]

D: Jags                    [waiver]

BN: Davis [10.115], the rest waivers, IR: Woodhead [6.67]

So... it's about 50/50 draft/waiver

 

CBS, standard, redraft, 12-team/3-division/4-playoffs

5-4*, 2nd in division by 1 game

*Note: should be 6-3 and 1st in division but F'ed up week 3 and only played 7/9 players... lost by 1.8 to division leader who's 6-3

QB: Dak                  [10.1]

RB: Gurley              [1.12]

RB: Howard           [2.1]

WR: Alshon           [3.12]

WR: Parker            [7.12]

TE: ASJ                  [waiver]

FLX: Darkwa         [waiver]

K: Elliott                 [waiver]

D: Vikings              [waiver]

BN: Tate                [6.1]

BN: Reed               [5.12]

BN: 3 waivers

So... Tate and Darkwa are interchangeable at FLX, so anywhere from 55-67% draft picks in lineup

 

those squads are reaaal nice. You landed so many of the major "hits" this year... Hunt, Engram, Kamara... even Zeurlein and JaxD. 

If Zeke continues to play, and Mariota steps it up, that first team looks dominant. 

and- to your point- most of those "hits" were waiver adds. 

 

I landed Prescott in round 10 as well. felt like a steal at the time... feels like a grand heist now. and I just added Roethlisberger (great ROS schedule) as insurance --> also prevented my week 10 opponent from nabbing him... he has both Wentz and Carr on bye. 

 

not to stray too off topic... but can you keep any two players from that first team?  If it's by round, I'd guess Kamara is a much better value than Hunt? But if it's straight up "keep 2"... that's gonna be tough.  Most teams would be glad to have Thomas or Engram as one of their keepers... bet they aren't even on the radar. 

 

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41 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

(2) I never keep more than one TE on the team unless I have a high end TE and need to cover his bye. Just not worth wasting bench space. 

In general I'm 100% with you on that... although this year was the exception for me. I drafted Gronk in both leagues, and stashed Engram week1 in both leagues, because his talent seemed so unique, I thought he could buck the "rookie TE's suck" trend. I'll admit, part of the appeal was that clip of him outrunning Jordan Reed... where the instant reaction was "woah... what kind of athlete are we dealing with here!?"

 

Of course, who saw the Giants receivers all going down? That's been just as important as his raw talent. So I got a bit lucky.  (except for, ya know, OBJ being my 1st round pick)

 

41 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

(6) In the end it boils down to luck. So don't beat yourself up if you bench players don't amount to anything. But the fact that you are thinking about your bench players and trying to optimize them is at least giving yourself a better chance to get lucky. Even if it just changes it from a 50/50 to a 55/45 chance of you hitting on just one of your bench players working out. 

Agreed. More than anything, the pattern I see year in and year out-- in terms of who makes playoffs-- is Points Against. With the exception of those rare teams that are so dominant, they just destroy everyone in their path. (a squad in my leagues draft went: Julio/Fournette/Gurley/Hopkins/Cook...  if Cook hadn't gotten hurt we'd have absolutely no chance. He finally lost a game this week... thanks to a combination of Fournette being out, and a Monday TD from Ameer Abdullah. 

 

41 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

(7) Talent. Opportunity. Situation. The golden three point triangle of fantasy football. When in doubt about a player and whether you want them on your bench, go through those three variables and determine if they meet them. You probably want a player that has all 3 over a player that just has 1 of them. Opportunity is probably the most important variable (especially for RB). Then maybe talent if you think talent will eventually win out and that the coaches will see said talent and use rational coaching. We have enough data this late into the season that we know which teams have a positive situation (good offenses) that we know which teams to fade as the season goes on and which ones we want pieces of their offense. 

 

awesome advice. thanks.

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