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2018 Sleepers/Value Picks


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5 hours ago, parrothead said:

For sure and thats the challenge with "swing" guys like him is that they bounce back and forth a bit so when they get starts, to the club anything over 5 innings is gravy, now if they were thinking, this guy is gonna be a 30-start guy for us in the rotation, I could see him stretching out but if he is gonna be the swing guy it will be likely similar to last year, very effective but not for 6+ inning starts.  

That’s fair. Part of that was extreme inefficiency though with pitch counts as opposed to imploding at the end a la Charlie Morton.

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Not exactly sure what thread this info should go into but I thought it does somewhat apply here. Razzball coined the "Kluber formula" a couple years ago to predict SP breakouts. The criteria are

Gausman 

Cesar Hernandez. His ADP on FantasyPros is 280. He could push 100 runs hitting at the top of the Phillies lineup. He'll hit for AVG, give you 15 SB and some power (9 HR last season). He's even more va

9 hours ago, BCMarch10 said:

I’m thinking AJ Reed. He was sent back to the minors last year and got his stuff together. I’ve heard that the Astros may give him a good look at DH in 2018. He may surprise. Also, R McMahon may get his chance at 1B in Coors Field which could potentially be worth a late flier. Both can be picked late and if they don’t work out then no big loss.

 

I don't see how Reed finds ABs at DH for Houston. Right now, Marwin Gonzalez is listed on the depth chart as the DH, and Gattis should be in line behind him to get DH ABs when Marwin is called upon to play another position or get a day off. 

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1 minute ago, Chaco Chicken said:

Has anyone ever calculated the maximum saturation point of sleeper threads? At what point have we functionally named every player in mlb/milb and it's correlation to the start of Spring Training? 

 

I've made that joke before.  The internet has killed the concept of a sleeper.  Now we're just looking for value picks which varies on a draft by draft basis.  

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3 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

The internet has killed the concept of a sleeper.

 

Sure, the idea's been dead for a decade basically. We used to do a live draft at my best friend's dad's hobby shop. We'd break out a new complete set of topps or fleer or whatever and draft a 10 team league in one evening. It was a ton of fun and you'd try to guess who might be good from the back of the card. My friend always took the biggest players (after all the good guys were gone). 

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13 minutes ago, Chaco Chicken said:

 

Sure, the idea's been dead for a decade basically. We used to do a live draft at my best friend's dad's hobby shop. We'd break out a new complete set of topps or fleer or whatever and draft a 10 team league in one evening. It was a ton of fun and you'd try to guess who might be good from the back of the card. My friend always took the biggest players (after all the good guys were gone). 

 

Ah, the good old days :). I remember playing fantasy baseball way back in the late 80s and 90s before the internet came into the picture. It was different back then for sure. 

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17 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Had to go back to November to see who this was even about.

chris Taylor !

Chris Taylor could be a sneaky good value pick who people should keep an eye on where he's being drafted. 

5 category player who is 2B/OF eligible.  14 games at SS as well which might help in some leagues.

 

Good playoffs solidified my thinking on this guy for the upcoming year.

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19 hours ago, dkrocka said:

@parrothead

I picked up Austin Barnes when Contreras was hurt. He was splitting time but highly productive when he played. With full playing time he's a top 8 catcher... EASILY

290/400, 1:1 K:BB basically 490 SLG

You think Austin Barnes is going to have an .890 OPS?

 

Yes he did it last year, so I guess it is possible, but that feels aggressive.

 

However, thanks for highlighting him. If he can maintain that walk rate, he will be a huge value in OBP leagues.

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  • 2 weeks later...

we had one of these threads in 2017, so i figured id make another

 

one guy ive read about, and like, as a deep sleeper is Jose Pirela.  crushed it in triple a before being called up and his 288 with good power.

 

can be a potential 20/15 guy hitting 3rd for the padres.

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59 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

we had one of these threads in 2017, so i figured id make another

 

one guy ive read about, and like, as a deep sleeper is Jose Pirela.  crushed it in triple a before being called up and his 288 with good power.

 

can be a potential 20/15 guy hitting 3rd for the padres.

Primarily penciled in at OF this year but just read where he will be taking reps at 2nd, as well.

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A super deep sleeper here for you guys! Chris Stratton (SP) on the Giants is an intriguing guy to me, especially at his price as he's going super late (NFBC ADP of 521). He's currently projected for the 5th starter role in San Francisco, and I think he can provide some solid value in 2018. Now, Stratton has some pedigree as a former 1st rounder (20th overall in 2012), and his stuff in 58.1 MLB innings last year looked pretty decent.

He's got a 91 MPH fastball that he controls well opposing batters hit a reasonable .283 against. Overall, it ranked slightly above-average with a 0.6 runs above-average mark. Then he has 3 off-speed/breaking balls that all have the potential to be above-average pitches. His curveball was good at missing bats (14% swinging-strike rate), and it managed contact with a 56% groundball percentage against it. Opponents hit just .116 against it with a .047 ISO. Next up is his slider which has a couple inches more cut to it than average, and some nice late dip. It too missed lots of bats (16.1% swinging-strike rate), and it also induced grounders at a 50% clip and held opponents to a .269 average, despite a .438 BABIP. And finally, his changeup which did get hit around to the tune of .500/.533/.714 with a ridiculous .500 BAPIP. The good news is that similar to his breaking balls, the changeup missed lots of bats (15% swinging-strike rate) and got groundballs (50% ground-ball rate). He's got a nice 4 pitch mix and that along with a home ballpark that is one of the better pitchers parks in the game, and with a team behind him that should be pretty solid defensively (especially in the infield), that's intriguing. That makes it easy to suggest that Stratton can outperform his ADP and be a great value pick in deeper leagues.

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1 hour ago, garlando said:

A super deep sleeper here for you guys! Chris Stratton (SP) on the Giants is an intriguing guy to me, especially at his price as he's going super late (NFBC ADP of 521). He's currently projected for the 5th starter role in San Francisco, and I think he can provide some solid value in 2018. Now, Stratton has some pedigree as a former 1st rounder (20th overall in 2012), and his stuff in 58.1 MLB innings last year looked pretty decent.

He's got a 91 MPH fastball that he controls well opposing batters hit a reasonable .283 against. Overall, it ranked slightly above-average with a 0.6 runs above-average mark. Then he has 3 off-speed/breaking balls that all have the potential to be above-average pitches. His curveball was good at missing bats (14% swinging-strike rate), and it managed contact with a 56% groundball percentage against it. Opponents hit just .116 against it with a .047 ISO. Next up is his slider which has a couple inches more cut to it than average, and some nice late dip. It too missed lots of bats (16.1% swinging-strike rate), and it also induced grounders at a 50% clip and held opponents to a .269 average, despite a .438 BABIP. And finally, his changeup which did get hit around to the tune of .500/.533/.714 with a ridiculous .500 BAPIP. The good news is that similar to his breaking balls, the changeup missed lots of bats (15% swinging-strike rate) and got groundballs (50% ground-ball rate). He's got a nice 4 pitch mix and that along with a home ballpark that is one of the better pitchers parks in the game, and with a team behind him that should be pretty solid defensively (especially in the infield), that's intriguing. That makes it easy to suggest that Stratton can outperform his ADP and be a great value pick in deeper leagues.

 

On the rotographs podcast Eno Sarris had talked to him last year. Eno asked Stratton why he doesn't throw his curveball more. To which Stratton replied that he likes to limit the amount he throws his off speed stuff so that it doesn't take away from the bullpen's effectiveness later in the game.  I am paraphrasing as it was a couple weeks ago.  I just thought that it was a very unusual thing to say.  

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14 minutes ago, alisgodnow said:

 

On the rotographs podcast Eno Sarris had talked to him last year. Eno asked Stratton why he doesn't throw his curveball more. To which Stratton replied that he likes to limit the amount he throws his off speed stuff so that it doesn't take away from the bullpen's effectiveness later in the game.  I am paraphrasing as it was a couple weeks ago.  I just thought that it was a very unusual thing to say.  

I agree, definitely an odd thing for him to say...why would you limit throwing your best pitch and rely on lesser parts of your arsenal to supposedly help out your bullpen? Anyway, his curveball is really good and I think if he uses it more in 2018, he could really take a step forward. He's a guy to watch imo.

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^ Wrt Stratton's philosophy from last year via Eno: New pitching coach Curt Young might have a different philosophy on pitch mix than Righetti. Young used his curve a lot when he pitched. All speculation, no direct quotes from camp yet.

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Now that Jarrod Dyson has signed....

 

.... In 2015 the SF Giants promoted a SS/3B from AA to backup Casey Mcgehee. Matt Duffy. He put up 12/12 with a near 300 avg, hitting near the top of tge lineup. This year Steve Duggar has a chance to open the season as the strong side of the CF platoon (w/ Austin Jackson). After nagging flexor & hammy injuries hampered him last year, he had a decent Fall league (260/365/420, 9SB/1CS). career MiLB 380 OBP over 3-4 seasons.

 

Today's guest on Pavlovic's Giant Insider Podcast.

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On 2/1/2018 at 2:59 PM, parrothead said:

My value guys:

Catcher thinking more 2 catchers leagues- I think there are a lot of them and on different tiers- that will bring value.  I think the "sleeper" might be Swihart - its something to monitor in spring, has C eligibility in most formats and might be in some sort of utility role, but this is a guy who was a top 20 prospect.  Others: MeCann (DET).  I think in a 2-C league, for your 2nd catcher you might be able to get Grandal very cheap,  because nothing looks great for him right now.   Not in my league because I have a lot of Giant fans, but I think Posey will be a value where people will be able to get him this year. 

 

1B: Lots of intriguing names to me - I like Santana's landing spot in Philly.  guys like Desmond, Davis, Cron, Belt I think are all prime for bounceback or improvement.  Jose Martinez and Greg Bird would be "sleepers" in the old days, might actually end up getting overvalued by mid March.  

2B: Wong is probably the sleeper, but I think there is some real upside value on guys who look like they might not have jobs, which could help those who take a shot on Talent and Prospects, Happ in Chicago and Kingery in Philly.  

SS - every year there is a vet who turns back the clock and puts up monster year I just have this feeling its gonna be Tulo this year. 

3B - Franco is a guy I think is undervalued and Chapman will bring cheap power

OF

Agree about Piscotty, Im a buyer. 

Sleeper?  Mahtook

 

grabbed mahtook in my dynasty in the mid 300s

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On 2/20/2018 at 10:05 AM, bbythepier said:

Now that Jarrod Dyson has signed....

 

.... In 2015 the SF Giants promoted a SS/3B from AA to backup Casey Mcgehee. Matt Duffy. He put up 12/12 with a near 300 avg, hitting near the top of tge lineup. This year Steve Duggar has a chance to open the season as the strong side of the CF platoon (w/ Austin Jackson). After nagging flexor & hammy injuries hampered him last year, he had a decent Fall league (260/365/420, 9SB/1CS). career MiLB 380 OBP over 3-4 seasons.

 

Today's guest on Pavlovic's Giant Insider Podcast.

 

 

Maybe that's best for the ballpark, but that side view of his bat plane & launch angle looks fine to me. I'd ride that swing for a year and adjust next year (if needed).

 

 

Edited by bbythepier
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