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Cody Bellinger 2018 Outlook


IlliniGuy76

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12 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

 

OK, if we're going to talk about this thing like it's the assassination of JFK, let's at least do it right.

 

Watching the video of the play via MLB.tv with timestamps enabled, I see the following:


T+0: Bellinger makes contact with the ball.

 

T+0.5: Bellinger's knee hits the ground.

 

T+1: Bellinger takes his first crow-hop toward first as he regains his footing.

 

T+5: Ball hits warning track

 

T+6: Slater barehands the ball off the wall

 

T+9: Ball is in Hanson's glove about 60 feet from 2nd base.

 

Bellinger's sprint speed is 28.5 feet per second, which means he could, if he were a superhuman being with no need to accelerate up to his maximum sprint speed, cover the ~270 feet from home to third in 9.64 seconds.  Knowing that he got out of the box slow, from his knees, and knowing he's not, in fact, able to immediately go from standing at the plate to his maximum sprint speed, the idea that he should have "easily" reached third is pretty far-fetched.  It would have been a bang-bang play even if he hadn't knelt down on his swing, and even if he didn't have to ramp up to his sprint speed.

Lol aright, who among us was making it out to be  the assassination of JFK?

 

We quite simply were defending Dave Roberts' decisions which I don't think were all that unreasonable (and quite common for a manager to do), but some posters here took issue with them and used it as an excuse to have a go at Roberts' managerial skills.

 

And I'm going to trust his eye that Cody wasn't hustling on the play over yours by the way.

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5 minutes ago, Phreedom32 said:

He can’t hit anything square. He looks like the definition of streaky hitter. 

 

Depends on how you define streaky - he's 0 for his last 7 - and that's the worst stretch he's had all year

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  • 2 weeks later...

He has good pitch selection at what he swings at - he just doesn't connect with SO much.  The shift kills him and he seems to top a lot of balls, which might be a result of him trying to lift it more because of the shift.

 

It's a mess right now figuring out what's wrong, but he still has the eye I think.  Just trending towards Mendoza territory is always worrisome (or a boon for the lurkers who play the slots knowing it's going to pay off at SOME point :))

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Doesn't help that Roberts hits him 6th against off brand RHP and protects him with horrible hitters. Should be using Kemp or Turner or Grandal to protect him. Roberts is just such a bad manager at lineup construction. 

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43 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

Definition of a Flash in the Pan

 

Strong Sell

 

Flash in the Pan? A simple look at his Wiki page suggests otherwise:

 

He played in 2015 with the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes and was selected to the mid-season California League all-star team[11] as well as the post-season all-star team.[12] In 128 games, he hit .264 with 30 homers (tied for 2nd in the league), leading the league in runs (97) and RBIs (103).[7][13] He was given a non-roster invitation to Dodgers spring training in 2016.[14] Bellinger was assigned to the Double-A Tulsa Drillers in the Texas League to start the 2016 season.[15] In 114 games for Tulsa he hit .263 with 23 homers (3rd in the league), 59 walks (tied for 3rd in the league), and 65 RBIs (9th in the league), earning him a late-season promotion to the Triple-A Oklahoma City Dodgers, where he had six hits in 11 at bats (.545 average) and three home runs.

 

Everything about his professional career has been exceptional, so do you really think that 200 plate appearances is more significant than that? You don't think that it's possible that he's going through a typical sophomore slump, where pitchers have adjusted to him and he's learning how to correct some holes in his swing?

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2 hours ago, bigbossman said:

Definition of a Flash in the Pan

 

Strong Sell

Eh, no. He’s hit at least 4-5 balls that are gone in any other park. That would put him at 11. It would completely change the context of this. Hit two in SF to Death Valley and two off the top of the wall in San Diego. He’s better than this but he’s not a flash in the pan

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11 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

Eh, no. He’s hit at least 4-5 balls that are gone in any other park. That would put him at 11. It would completely change the context of this. Hit two in SF to Death Valley and two off the top of the wall in San Diego. He’s better than this but he’s not a flash in the pan

Fact is, all those would be homeruns still weren't homeruns.  

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55 minutes ago, Tugginroot said:

Fact is, all those would be homeruns still weren't homeruns.  

It’s being unlucky the same way people reference a poor BABIP. There’s just no stat for it. He’s not that far off

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Well, there is a stat for it: HR/FB.  Bellinger doesn't have a long enough track record to compare his 2018 rate against his MLB career rate, but it's really hard to believe that his current 11.7% isn't bad luck when looking at his minor league rates and the fact that power hitters with his profile tend to average in the 20-30% range pretty easily.  Even if you're not a believer and you think his 25% rate was high, just going up to 15% or 20% would add enough HR that nobody would really be worrying about him.

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On 5/26/2018 at 11:55 PM, mevins31 said:

Doesn't help that Roberts hits him 6th against off brand RHP and protects him with horrible hitters. Should be using Kemp or Turner or Grandal to protect him. Roberts is just such a bad manager at lineup construction. 

Yes, let's blame his manager for the .237/.302/.432 slash.

The hitters who "protect him" as you put it, have nothing at all to do with his struggles. If it did, then Bellinger would be walking a lot more, but hes actually walking LESS than last year. 

In fact, he's seeing MORE pitches in the strike zone this season than  he did last year. According to pitch info plate discipline data, his zone% has jumped from 44% last year to 50% this year.

 

The problem is he's swinging and missing at a lot more pitches in the zone, while at the same time making more contact on pitches out of the strike zone. Thats the opposite of what you want and leads to weak contact. He's hitting way more grounders this year than he did last season as well. 

 

 

15 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Eh, no. He’s hit at least 4-5 balls that are gone in any other park. That would put him at 11. It would completely change the context of this. Hit two in SF to Death Valley and two off the top of the wall in San Diego. He’s better than this but he’s not a flash in the pan

Your hypothetical is great, but lots of other hitters have done the exact same thing and they don't get credit for "almost home runs" either.

 

And he hasn't been as unlucky as you seem to think. His BABIP is .277 which isn't out of line at all for a guy thats hit lots of fly balls and has been popping up a ton. His hard hit % is also down  and his soft hit rate is up. Its not like he keeps hitting lasers right at defenders every AB.

 

I agree that his talent is greater than what his results show so far, and I'm confident he will adjust at some point and improve. But come on man, quit with the excuses and lazy eye test analysis.

 

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14 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Well, there is a stat for it: HR/FB.  Bellinger doesn't have a long enough track record to compare his 2018 rate against his MLB career rate, but it's really hard to believe that his current 11.7% isn't bad luck when looking at his minor league rates and the fact that power hitters with his profile tend to average in the 20-30% range pretty easily.  Even if you're not a believer and you think his 25% rate was high, just going up to 15% or 20% would add enough HR that nobody would really be worrying about him.

Pretty much agree with this. I just checked his Avg launch angle on flyballs, average FB distance, and average exit velocity on flyballs, and all 3 are almost exactly identical to last year. For each one there is less than 1% variation from 2017 to 2018. They are all eerily similar.

So as soon as he quits swinging at balls, and swinging through strikes, the home runs will come.

 

Awesome tool:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=fly\.\.ball|&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R|&hfC=&hfSea=2018|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup[]=641355&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=bbdist&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

 

(After clicking the link, scroll up and you can change any parameter you want - data type, year, batted ball type, player, etc)

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Hit a home run yesterday but did it in a sleazy way: two outs in the B8 with team up 3. Still nice to see. Hopeful he can catch a mistake from Velasquez on memorial day 

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