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Miles Mikolas 2018 Outlook


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I've watched most of his starts so far, and I love what I've seen out of this guy so far. Currently the league leader in k/bb ratio. Three straight games of 7ip. He also owns a a 50% ground ball rate,

Mikolas had 13 0-2 counts today (and 15 swinging strikes). League wide this year batters have an .829 OPS after starting an at bat up 1-0, vs a .605 OPS after starting a count 0-1. Even before today M

What a show he put on tonight. The KC offense is bad, but they're among the best teams at avoiding Ks, and Miles made them look like a AAA lineup today, scattering 4 hits with 9 Ks and just one walk.

13 minutes ago, mtw02 said:

So who is running him out against Brewers again today?

I am.  It's a two start week for me and he was better than his line showed the last game.  He also hit a two run homer so maybe he's one of those pitchers than can help his own cause (probably not).  He's worth a roll of the dice unless you've got absolute studs filling out your rotation.

 

Edit: Forgot to add he's going against Chacin who's been terrible his first two starts and terrible away from Petco (with the padres last year).  I might put actual money on the Cardinals the more that I think about it.

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7 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I don't know your league size, but I'm looking to acquire him in leagues I don't have him. I think he looked good even if the results were a bit lacking. 

yep. defense failed him twice and balked in a run

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ESPN commentators were talking about where Molina was setting up versus where he threw it knowing where he was in the lineup and wanting to nibble, with the thought being to refuse to give Pina anything good to hit with less respected hitters (i.e. Arcia who is swinging at everything these days) coming up.   Hopefully Yadier can get through to Mikolas what he wants to do with 2 strikes and how to attack the hitters.   It's hard to communicate that when you're limited on mound visits.

 

We know Mikolas has good  stuff.  I think he has pretty control.  It's just learning how to use it better.  Don't catch so much of the plate on set up pitches.  

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11 hours ago, ReyesMurphyWright said:

Sticking with him in a 16-team league where I just need an innings eater to fill out my rotation. Would probably drop him in 12-team. It's a small sample size but early on he seems like a guy who's going to be hittable but at least won't kill you with walks. 

Even in a 12 teamer like mine, the waiver wire is absolute garbage right now for SP.  There's value in a guy who's got a crappy era but can limit the damage to 3 or 4 runs per start.

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There have been both signs for concern and optimism so far. He does have a pretty solid arsenal, but at the same time for a guy with 0 walks he hasn't had the best command. In his first start, it was a 2 out, 0-2 pitch to pitch to Shaw in the 6th that led to a single. Next batter homers, and a solid 6ip 2er game turns into 5.2 ip, 4 er. Yesterday, it was a poorly thrown 3-0 pitch in the 4th where he completely missed his target that led to two runs. I think if he starts spotting his pitches a bit better, we've got a guy who has the potential to hang around the top 50. I'm holding here. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Mikolas is quality.  Definitely a hold.  Maybe 10 team leaguues with 5 pitchers you can still leave him in the FA pool but thats it.  Very glad someone dropped him in the league I got him.

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I've watched most of his starts so far, and I love what I've seen out of this guy so far. Currently the league leader in k/bb ratio. Three straight games of 7ip. He also owns a a 50% ground ball rate, and was throwing 97 in the 7th inning yesterday. He loves to attack with his fastball, get ahead of hitters, and then try to get them to chase his curve/slider. He actually has the highest outside the zone swing % in the majors so far, coupled with the 21st best 1st strike rate and 7th best zone rate. 

 

After missing with his location a few times to the Brewers, he's put the ball exactly where he's wanted his last 3 starts. I think there's untapped strikeout potential here if he gets a few more swing and misses with his curve. He's only getting 8.2% swinging strikes on the curve, which is not good. What is good is that 72% of his curveballs put in play are resulting in grounders, and batters are only slugging .276 off of it. So it's been a good pitch, it just hasn't been a put-away pitch. For reference, a really good curveball like Berrios or Morton throw get 22% swinging strikes. Mikolas is not in their category, but given how often he gets ahead of hitters and his current league leader outside the zone swing rate, there stands a good chance that he'll garner a few extra swing and misses going forward. 

 

I think May will be a huge month for Mikolas's ROS outlook. He was an unknown coming back from Japan, but now the league will have a better idea of the current version of Miles Mikolas. If he counter-adjustments to the adjustments the league makes, then we've got an SP3/4 here. If not, then ok, most didn't invest too much to get him. I'm betting on him being successful though, as long as he keep properly spotting his pitches. 

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On 4/9/2018 at 12:31 AM, Fiveohnine said:

I just took a look and those numbers he put up in Japan are pretty insane. He just might end up being one of those waiver gems in certain leagues.

 

I agree with this. I don’t think he will end up being a big waiver wire guy like DeGrom and Kluber were when they broke out but he could be a very solid pitcher. 

I really like that he only he only has 2 walks in 33 innings this year.

over his last 3 games he went 7 innings in each game with 17 Ks and 2 walks. He faced the Reds twice but his last outing against Pitt was good. He didn’t let up those 2 runs until the 6th or 7th inning (iirc). 

He struggled early in ST but got his act together and it seems like that’s what he’s doing now so far. I would defintely grab this guy and see what happens. He’s getting some Ks and he’s not walking anyone. 

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