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Miles Mikolas 2018 Outlook


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I've watched most of his starts so far, and I love what I've seen out of this guy so far. Currently the league leader in k/bb ratio. Three straight games of 7ip. He also owns a a 50% ground ball rate,

Mikolas had 13 0-2 counts today (and 15 swinging strikes). League wide this year batters have an .829 OPS after starting an at bat up 1-0, vs a .605 OPS after starting a count 0-1. Even before today M

What a show he put on tonight. The KC offense is bad, but they're among the best teams at avoiding Ks, and Miles made them look like a AAA lineup today, scattering 4 hits with 9 Ks and just one walk.

5 hours ago, smeeze said:

Anyone starting vs ChC? 

Yeah I am. His control has been great so far and that should work out well against an impatient Cubs team who is not on their game for the most part. (I hope)

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35 minutes ago, yung lxrd said:

Yeah I am. His control has been great so far and that should work out well against an impatient Cubs team who is not on their game for the most part. (I hope)

most definitely and he keeps the ball on the ground.

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No matter how cold the Cubs bats are, this is not a matchup I'm happy to see. Rizzo is DUE, Contreras is probably due a homer, and Baez is as likely to hit 2 homers as he is to strikeout twice. I'm going to take my chances with Mikolas regardless. If he gets ahead of hitters and and then buries them with the curve/slider, he's going to be good more often than not. 

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Why are we so afraid of the Cubs?

 

23rd in Ks

23rd in BBs

24th in the league in HRs

16th in the league in Runs scored 

 

I'm just not seeing anything there that should strike fear in owners about starting pitchers against them at this point.  Game is in St. Louis as well, which plays bigger than Wrigley and ranked 25th in all of baseball last season in run suppression. 

 

 

 

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On 4/28/2018 at 9:50 AM, Red Sox Nation said:

I've watched most of his starts so far, and I love what I've seen out of this guy so far. Currently the league leader in k/bb ratio. Three straight games of 7ip. He also owns a a 50% ground ball rate, and was throwing 97 in the 7th inning yesterday. He loves to attack with his fastball, get ahead of hitters, and then try to get them to chase his curve/slider. He actually has the highest outside the zone swing % in the majors so far, coupled with the 21st best 1st strike rate and 7th best zone rate. 

 

After missing with his location a few times to the Brewers, he's put the ball exactly where he's wanted his last 3 starts. I think there's untapped strikeout potential here if he gets a few more swing and misses with his curve. He's only getting 8.2% swinging strikes on the curve, which is not good. What is good is that 72% of his curveballs put in play are resulting in grounders, and batters are only slugging .276 off of it. So it's been a good pitch, it just hasn't been a put-away pitch. For reference, a really good curveball like Berrios or Morton throw get 22% swinging strikes. Mikolas is not in their category, but given how often he gets ahead of hitters and his current league leader outside the zone swing rate, there stands a good chance that he'll garner a few extra swing and misses going forward. 

 

I think May will be a huge month for Mikolas's ROS outlook. He was an unknown coming back from Japan, but now the league will have a better idea of the current version of Miles Mikolas. If he counter-adjustments to the adjustments the league makes, then we've got an SP3/4 here. If not, then ok, most didn't invest too much to get him. I'm betting on him being successful though, as long as he keep properly spotting his pitches. 

 

Agreed.   

 

A couple of things that stood out to me his last start.   

 

He really doesn't seem to use a true put away strike out pitch unless he has two strikes.  He's content to generate soft contact working his 94 mph, curve, and i think cutter (90 mph, might be a change) on the corners.

 

But with two strikes he dials it up to 97 mph and gets swing and misses on the fastball.

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1 hour ago, The Czar said:

Why are we so afraid of the Cubs?

 

23rd in Ks

23rd in BBs

24th in the league in HRs

16th in the league in Runs scored 

 

I'm just not seeing anything there that should strike fear in owners about starting pitchers against them at this point.  Game is in St. Louis as well, which plays bigger than Wrigley and ranked 25th in all of baseball last season in run suppression. 

 

 

 

They are 8th in the league with a .327 wOBA, with a 21.6% K% (11th best in MLB) and but also don't seem to hit it very hard vs RHP (27th in Hard% vs RHP)

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1 hour ago, The Czar said:

Why are we so afraid of the Cubs?

 

23rd in Ks

23rd in BBs

24th in the league in HRs

16th in the league in Runs scored 

 

I'm just not seeing anything there that should strike fear in owners about starting pitchers against them at this point.  Game is in St. Louis as well, which plays bigger than Wrigley and ranked 25th in all of baseball last season in run suppression. 

 

 

 

 

At some point Rizzo and Contreras are going to start hitting.   Don't know when but when they do I'll start benching vs them. 

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35 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

At some point Rizzo and Contreras are going to start hitting.   Don't know when but when they do I'll start benching vs them. 

Umm, can’t you say that with every team that has 2 studs in their lineup??  If that’s the case, I would be benching my starting pitching every other day.

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17 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

Umm, can’t you say that with every team that has 2 studs in their lineup??  

 

Of course.   

 

But adding those two hitting at their normal level to Bryant, Schwaber, Baez, Almora/Zobrist/happ and you have a lineup with only two easy outs in Russell (what a fall from grace) and Hayward.  That's a lot of firepower.

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21 minutes ago, ghostdragon said:

There isn’t a team I would bench Miles against at this point.. He’s become one of the most reliable pitchers out there.

 

Mikolas needs to start getting some more love. He Went 7 innings again with no walks. I wish he had some more Ks but I won’t be greedy. 

 

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On 5/4/2018 at 10:27 PM, ghostdragon said:

There isn’t a team I would bench Miles against at this point.. He’s become one of the most reliable pitchers out there.

 

100%.. Dude consistently pounds the strike zone. That K/BB ratio is ridiculous.

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13th on the ESPN player rater among SPs, but nobody's talking about him because he doesn't have a high K/9.  The last time I checked, ratios are two categories and Ks are only one.  Perhaps his ranking is being buoyed a bit by the 5 wins, but those count too, and his steady-Eddie profile makes him look like a guy who's going to be factoring into a lot of decisions because of how deep he's going into games.  The profile kind of reminds me of pre-Cy Young Keuchel (2014ish), who was able to win 12 games on a terrible Astros team with the same low strikeout, low ratio, long outings profile.  You couldn't really sell him for anything because nobody believed it was real without the strikeout numbers, so you just rolled with it all season and ended up with 200 innings of excellent production.  I'm going to be putting out some offers to get MM in the places I don't already have him, with the hopes that the same "boring" profile makes him kind of a throw-in.  If he's able to sustain anything close to this level, "buying high" might mean paying for a back-end top 50 arm to get a guy who could legitimately be top 20, especially as guys ahead of him get hurt or lose effectiveness.

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This guy has the stuff, it's not like he throws 89 mph FB, his repertoire is not just 2 pitches, he just pounds and pounds the strike zone. The Cards rarely make mistakes, atleast in my eyes. I think he has a legit chance of being top 25 SP this year if he keeps this up. Doesn't seem like anything flukish. 

 

Whip under 1, avg almost 7 innings per game, 3 BB in 46.2 inn... Jeeesus

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The last hit was junk.  Rosario hit a pop fly flare behind 3rd base that either Dejong or Ozuna should have been able to get ... certainly with better communication.  That put runners on the corners with 2 outs.  Too bad the Cards don't have better D.  Mikolas should've been out of the inning and qualified for the potential win.

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I think it was Rotowire's Derek van Riper who said in a recent podcast that he thought there wasn't much daylight between Mikolas and Mengden, and he wasn't talking about their mustache game.  His argument was that Mikolas is overvalued right now because he hasn't shown much to make us believe that the ERA is real, even though the control has been elite.  I haven't watched Mikolas enough to form an opinion of whether his current run of success is sustainable, or if his lack of strikeout stuff is going to eventually catch up with him, but the .257 BABIP against and 85% strand rate heading into today do suggest there could be a correction coming. 

 

None of this is actionable, of course.  Nobody's going to give you much of value because of the lack of Ks and short track record of success.  But the Mengden comp was certainly a provocative one.

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33 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I think it was Rotowire's Derek van Riper who said in a recent podcast that he thought there wasn't much daylight between Mikolas and Mengden, and he wasn't talking about their mustache game.  His argument was that Mikolas is overvalued right now because he hasn't shown much to make us believe that the ERA is real, even though the control has been elite.  I haven't watched Mikolas enough to form an opinion of whether his current run of success is sustainable, or if his lack of strikeout stuff is going to eventually catch up with him, but the .257 BABIP against and 85% strand rate heading into today do suggest there could be a correction coming. 

 

None of this is actionable, of course.  Nobody's going to give you much of value because of the lack of Ks and short track record of success.  But the Mengden comp was certainly a provocative one.

 

Mikola's SIERA, FIP, and xFIP were all fantastic coming into today (they are still fantastic). If not for some horrible communication between Ozuna/the infielders then we are looking at another potential quality start and win. Miles certainly wasn't at his best today and still gave the Cards a great chance to win. 

 

A key difference in a Mikolas/Mengden comparison is that Mengden has given up 66 grounders vs 61 fly balls, whereas Mikolas is at 83 grounders to 37 fly balls. No walks AND ground ball heavy gives Mikolas an excellent shot at continued success. 

 

I've watched Mikolas a lot this year (and wrote about him a page or two back) and I've been pretty impressed. He's fairly hittable and has had a few starts (Milwaukee twice, Twins today) where bad command got him, but overall he manages any damage extremely well. He's very confident on the mound as well.

 

With no rain-outs his current schedule shakes out to: vs KC, @ Pit, vs Pit, vs Mia, vs SD. I'd expect him to continue to pitch like a top 40 pitcher if that's who he gets to face. 

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