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Luis Castillo 2018 Outlook


azeri98

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7 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

he couldn't even get good K's today.

He hasn’t all year... I know a couple guys were pumped about 6 in 5 IP or 7 in 6 IP but who cares 

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1 minute ago, mevins31 said:

He hasn’t all year... I know a couple guys were pumped about 6 in 5 IP or 7 in 6 IP but who cares 

 

6 in 5 or 7 in 6 are still good K numbers. he had 10 K in his last start and had 9.12 K/9 coming into this game. that was still 26th in baseball for qualified starters.

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From the comments above I thought he got rocked for a plus 50 ERA in the game.  Then I go look at the stats and it just looks like any other pitcher in a typical loss.  Talk about alternate realities.  I really should know by now not to believe the hyperbole and go look at the stats first before even opening this site.

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8 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

From the comments above I thought he got rocked for a plus 50 ERA in the game.  Then I go look at the stats and it just looks like any other pitcher in a typical loss.  Talk about alternate realities.  I really should know by now not to believe the hyperbole and go look at the stats first before even opening this site.

I’d say it’s a culmination of his season, more than the one game. Never thought he would be close to unrosterable (league dependent, of course). 

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Todays game could have been MUCH worse. Pirates were ripping this guy all over the field, but Reds CF and RF made some nice plays. If you have Castillo, you are lucky this didnt get out of hand. PNC tough place on hitters and today showed that. 

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34 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

From the comments above I thought he got rocked for a plus 50 ERA in the game.  Then I go look at the stats and it just looks like any other pitcher in a typical loss.  Talk about alternate realities.  I really should know by now not to believe the hyperbole and go look at the stats first before even opening this site.

He was awful today. With that season swinging strike rate I'm still buying or holding, but today was brutal. The results are in one sense all that matters and those weren't bad today. But Castillo himself definitely was. He was absolutely scorched. Gave up rocket after rocket. His defense should be sent gift baskets after today's performance. It's a miracle the damage was so mild today, but if he gets hit like that regularly he's going to annihilate our ratios.

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49 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

From the comments above I thought he got rocked for a plus 50 ERA in the game.  Then I go look at the stats and it just looks like any other pitcher in a typical loss.  Talk about alternate realities.  I really should know by now not to believe the hyperbole and go look at the stats first before even opening this site.

 

But he does this every outing

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8 minutes ago, rrrrich46 said:

 How do things look under the hood?

 

 

Jimmie Johnson’s pit crew couldn’t fix him.

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4 hours ago, rrrrich46 said:

Rotoprofessor advised he's a buy low. How do things look under the hood?

 

Swinging strike rate is amazing. #5 in the league. That's why I'm buying/holding. 

Everything else is ugly. The advanced peripherals say he should have been better than what he's given us and should have about a 4 era.

The most troubling thing is his fb velocity being 2 mph slower. 

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19 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Swinging strike rate is amazing. #5 in the league. That's why I'm buying/holding. 

Everything else is ugly. The advanced peripherals say he should have been better than what he's given us and should have about a 4 era.

The most troubling thing is his fb velocity being 2 mph slower. 

I think the advanced stats aren't what should be looked at here. Having watched him he has 2 problems. 1) He can't locate and has a habit of putting fastballs middle middle or low middle where they're easy to hit and b ) his changeup isn't very good. That's why you're seeing the high swinging strike rate. He gets lucky sometimes and places a fastball in a good place where its easy to get that or gets bailed out by movement but he also serves up BP. His pitching right now reminds me of Danny Salazar or pre adjustment Trevor Bauer. Nice raw stuff, solid under the hood, but can't actually perform. 

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9 minutes ago, RAZRr1275 said:

I think the advanced stats aren't what should be looked at here. Having watched him he has 2 problems. 1) He can't locate and has a habit of putting fastballs middle middle or low middle where they're easy to hit and b ) his changeup isn't very good. That's why you're seeing the high swinging strike rate. He gets lucky sometimes and places a fastball in a good place where its easy to get that or gets bailed out by movement but he also serves up BP. His pitching right now reminds me of Danny Salazar or pre adjustment Trevor Bauer. Nice raw stuff, solid under the hood, but can't actually perform. 

 

He's got a good shot at being a stud someday but he's going to beat the hell out of your ratios in the meantime.  I'd bail in redraft unless you need K's and can punt ratios or your rotation can cover for him.  It's much more tricky in keeper/dynasty.  If I cut him there I know for certain another GM would scoop and stash for a year or two and potentially have the next Snell/Severino on their hands.

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While he's obviously not meeting his potential he is also not wetting the bed every turn either. He's only gone less than 5 innings twice this season, and one of those was 4 2/3. Only true implosion and that was in April.

 

Still well worth holding on to, IMO, even in redrafts.

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11 minutes ago, ragrag said:

 

He's got a good shot at being a stud someday but he's going to beat the hell out of your ratios in the meantime.  I'd bail in redraft unless you need K's and can punt ratios or your rotation can cover for him.  It's much more tricky in keeper/dynasty.  If I cut him there I know for certain another GM would scoop and stash for a year or two and potentially have the next Snell/Severino on their hands.

Agreed. I mean other guys who fit that mold in the past i.e flamethrower Verlander, Scherzer before being good, Bauer as I mentioned have figured it out. It can happen. Could also just end up with a Aaron Sanchez or Michael Pineda who people hold way way too long based on that potential. Will be interesting to see what happen.s 

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