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James Paxton 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-28. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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56 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

So Paxton could be back for @ARI this next weekend (based on 10 days). I thought the word was that he’d miss “one start,” but just did some research looking for updates and everything said “At least one start, could be back in 10-12 days.” 

So pretty vague, but I’m assuming it’s safe to guess he’s not back this coming week? Anyone see any other updates?

I haven't seen anything more definite. I'm planning to keep him on the DL this in my weekly league (unless there is definitive word he looks great etc)

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According to the Yahoo note possibly in time to face OAK again, he'll come back and OAK will continue the whooping they were about to put on him last time out. I hope that's not the case of course. Would be nice if he comes back and actually helps out down the stretch and not just serve batting practice every time out. He's had a quite a bit of time off between the ASB and the last two DL stints, you'd imagine he should could back refreshed and hopefully primed for a strong finish this year. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Pretty nervous about his next start against the Yanks. They are currently 2nd in wOBA, 2nd in wRC+, and 1st in ISO against LHP. They do strike out quite a bit, but they are also 1st in BB%. Desperately need a dominant start, but I would be happy with 7 IP, 3 ER, 2BB, and 7 K. If everything lines up correctly, he should be facing Tanaka.

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4 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

This dude is the softest ******** pitccher in baseball ... all season missed starts for the most BS reasons

As we wind down 2018, and gear up towards 2019 I don’t think we can understate this enough.  It’s been said at times throughout this thread.  Some guys have the burning desire to compete in the absolute biggest moments, James has the same burning desire of NOT competing.  The best thing for this gutless lefty was this team lose 100 games so he’d be able to shrink down in no pressure situations he lives for.  Entering 2019 with health concerns he’s going to be a tough gamble. Landing spot/team will be key.  Mariners would be smart to move him before the bottom falls out.  Still has a nice team friendly deal.  If he ends up in a big market then he’s probably better off being someone else’s problem.  I can’t imagine how this wimp would hold up in New York.  But the thought of it makes me laugh.  Either way, 2018 showed more of the same for James.  Great, elite stuff at times, health woes, just can’t seem to make it all come together.  

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Came to this thread for the comments after yahoo sent me the DTD notification. When you’re sick you’re sick but my goodness this guy is missing starts left and right for ailments that any grown man would go to work for and give the effort even if not their best. This guy just calls in. Brutal.

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13 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

As we wind down 2018, and gear up towards 2019 I don’t think we can understate this enough.  It’s been said at times throughout this thread.  Some guys have the burning desire to compete in the absolute biggest moments, James has the same burning desire of NOT competing.  The best thing for this gutless lefty was this team lose 100 games so he’d be able to shrink down in no pressure situations he lives for.  Entering 2019 with health concerns he’s going to be a tough gamble. Landing spot/team will be key.  Mariners would be smart to move him before the bottom falls out.  Still has a nice team friendly deal.  If he ends up in a big market then he’s probably better off being someone else’s problem.  I can’t imagine how this wimp would hold up in New York.  But the thought of it makes me laugh.  Either way, 2018 showed more of the same for James.  Great, elite stuff at times, health woes, just can’t seem to make it all come together.  

 

Which sadly is the reason not to cut bait on the guy. But if you take/keep him in 2019 you’re asking for it. So most managers make the smart play and the guy that doesn’t pay attention to the league will own him next year ‘if’ he puts it together. Huge if at this point.

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18 minutes ago, mhuhn23 said:

 

Which sadly is the reason not to cut bait on the guy. But if you take/keep him in 2019 you’re asking for it. So most managers make the smart play and the guy that doesn’t pay attention to the league will own him next year ‘if’ he puts it together. Huge if at this point.

I don’t think he ever will at this point from an IP stand point.  150-160 is probably the absolute best case scenario.  Dating back to his days in college at Kentucky he hasn’t gone a single season without missing time due to injury.  From college, to minors, to majors, every single year he’s had an ailment.  Pitching in general is volatile now so he still has obvious value.  You just don’t want to draft as your SP1, probably better suited for SP3 on most teams that want to be pretty competitive in pitching, and not punting/streaming a ton.

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Anyone else with playoffs going on drop him in small leagues ? 

 

No saying when he will start again and even though he's been good against HOU, don't really trust Paxton against anyone these days. He had been very mediocre for that last month plus. 

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13 hours ago, tonywow said:

Anyone else with playoffs going on drop him in small leagues ? 

 

No saying when he will start again and even though he's been good against HOU, don't really trust Paxton against anyone these days. He had been very mediocre for that last month plus. 

Have the same dilemma.... saw that he "played catch" on Saturday but no update on implications to him pitching again 

 

seems like a drop to me

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On second thought, maybe not a drop:

 

Quote

Paxton rejoining team in Houston

After missing Friday's start due to a mild bout of pneumonia, Mariners lefty James Paxton was slated to play long toss in Seattle on Sunday afternoon and then fly to Houston to rejoin the team if all goes well.

The Mariners still haven't announced a starter for Wednesday's series finale in Houston, but Servais said he'll have to talk to Paxton and see how his energy level stands as he rebounds from the illness before determining when he slides back into the rotation against the Astros or waits for the weekend series in Arlington.

"There's a small percentage chance [he could pitch Wednesday]," Servais said. "Probably more realistic maybe in Texas. But we don't have a defined starter for that last game in Houston, so we'll have to wait and see. I'd love to be able to start him, but we need him to be close to 100 percent.

"It's not arm strength, it's his body feeling good and feeling good about where he's at physically. When you're sick like that, it takes a lot out of you. We just want to get him back on top of it."

The Mariners are also awaiting word on Felix Hernandez, who was taking Sunday off before resuming throwing Monday in Seattle as he works back from a sore right hamstring. Servais said he could meet up with the Mariners in Houston or Arlington, but it's not certain yet when he'll be able to rejoin the rotation.

Greg Johns has covered the Mariners since 1997, and for MLB.com since 2011. Follow him on Twitter @GregJohnsMLB.

 

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My concern with Paxton is that, not counting the A's game he left after getting hit with a line drive  2 or 3 batters into the game,  if he starts this weekend in Texas, that'll be two starts he's had over the last six weeks. 

 

So how stretched out is he, and how much are they willing to push him coming off a bout of pneumonia?

 

If he has 2 starts left in him this season, I could see at least the first one being limited to 3 or 4 innings, or maybe 75 pitches or so. 

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Tough call for weekly leagues. Two starts but coming off a pneumonia-like, weakness-inducing illness and a long layoff. I desperately need a great week for ERA/WHIP, so I don't think I can risk it, even though I could also use a few extra strikeouts. What does anyone else think about his chances this week?

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Scott Servais' comments on Paxton's bullpen session:
 

"He got through it," Servais said of the bullpen session. "He did say he got a little fatigued toward the end of it, but he's pushing through it."

 

Keeping in mind that's only a 40-pitch bullpen session that he reported feeling fatigue in toward the end and having to push through. I'm not confident enough to use him.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/james-paxton-feels-ready-to-return-on-monday/c-295649706

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