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James Paxton 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2018-11-28. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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57 minutes ago, DemOrioles said:

Incredible you punch out 16 batters and your team cant get you the win.

 

Every day I want to punch my commissioner for not doing a QS league.

I despise Nicasio 

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He was only at 105 pitches after 7 and , incredibly, threw 80 of those for strikes. At the very least he should have come out to start the 8th and see what happened.

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5 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

He was only at 105 pitches after 7 and , incredibly, threw 80 of those for strikes. At the very least he should have come out to start the 8th and see what happened.

My thoughts exactly!

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26 minutes ago, RoadApple said:

He was only at 105 pitches after 7 and , incredibly, threw 80 of those for strikes. At the very least he should have come out to start the 8th and see what happened.

With as many injuries as this guy has had...no

 

200 innings would be blessing for 2018

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22 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

My thoughts exactly!

 

Did you watch the game? He was throwing his curve in the dirt and several other pitches looked awkward. Like someone else mentioned earlier, his mechanics were getting sloppy. Besides, Nicasio and Diaz have been lights out lately. The ones questioning the decision to pull him have to be coming from a fantasy perspective.

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1 hour ago, Yanks#1 said:

With as many injuries as this guy has had...no

 

200 innings would be blessing for 2018

 

200 innings would be incredible, not that I'm holding my breath. What do we think his K floor is if he pitched 200 innings? 250? 260?

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8 minutes ago, IncuRAM said:

 

200 innings would be incredible, not that I'm holding my breath. What do we think his K floor is if he pitched 200 innings? 250? 260?

Floor? I'd say more like 220-230

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1 hour ago, arthurpete said:

 

Did you watch the game? He was throwing his curve in the dirt and several other pitches looked awkward. Like someone else mentioned earlier, his mechanics were getting sloppy. Besides, Nicasio and Diaz have been lights out lately. The ones questioning the decision to pull him have to be coming from a fantasy perspective.

I absolutely did watch the game, beginning to end.  7th inning he was still topping out at 98mph and struck out 3 that inning.  As far as him looking sloppy throwing his curve in the dirt,  he does that 1st inning, 2nd inning, 3rd inning, etc. in every game I watched this year.  Not sure if this is your first game you watched him pitch but that his style from beginning to end.

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1 hour ago, Yanks#1 said:

With as many injuries as this guy has had...no

 

200 innings would be blessing for 2018

We could get into how pitch counts havent reduced injuries but I think that's a whole other topic.

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3 minutes ago, reichl555 said:

I absolutely did watch the game, beginning to end.  7th inning he was still topping out at 98mph and struck out 3 that inning.  As far as him looking sloppy throwing his curve in the dirt,  he does that 1st inning, 2nd inning, 3rd inning, etc. in every game I watched this year.  Not sure if this is your first game you watched him pitch but that his style from beginning to end.

 

M's fan...watched all his his starts, he was noticeably sloppy towards the end of the 7th.

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6 hours ago, arthurpete said:

 

M's fan...watched all his his starts, he was noticeably sloppy towards the end of the 7th.

Agree. His mechanics started falling apart in the 7th. Not sending him back out in the 8th was correct.

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There are just four guys at the bottom of the list of 97 qualifiers who are trendy/highly owned: Michael Fulmer (.193), Joey Lucchesi (.188), James Paxton (.188) and Chris Archer (.178). We already mentioned Stroman up top. I’m not saying to cut Fulmer and Lucchesi but just note there are some fleas here so getting lit up will be more correction than outlier. Paxton, Archer and Stroman have earned all their trouble this season. You may think you are buying low on them but a real buy low is a guy with bad fantasy stats but much better foundational stats, not one who is bad in fantasy and bad in the leading indicators, too.”

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/fantasy-pitchers-buy-sell-based-well-hit-data-214558521.html

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9 hours ago, RoadApple said:

He was only at 105 pitches after 7 and , incredibly, threw 80 of those for strikes. At the very least he should have come out to start the 8th and see what happened.

You must not have been watching the game, because he lost it in the 7th. He was still hitting 97, but he had no idea where it was going. Was very obviously fatigued at that point. Multiple pitches bounced in front of the plate of were 3 feet from the target. To be honest he was fairly lucky not to give up a run that inning. 

 

Hindsight is great though!

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3 hours ago, UberRebel said:

The most underrated SP in fantasy. If he stays healthy, he really could put up top 5 SP #s.

I love Paxton, and literally own him on every team I could possibly get him. But lets be realistic here - almost any pitcher *could* put up top 5 numbers but which of these guys do you think Paxton has a legitimate shot to finish ahead of:

Scherzer

Kluber

Sale

Kershaw

Verly

Cole

Severino

deGrom

Strasburg

CMart

Thor

You're either being extremely optimistic with Paxton's ability to greatly reduce the number of baserunners he allows throughout the rest of the year, or you are expecting a bunch of those on the list above to get injured while simultaneously forgetting about Paxton's own proclivity to get hurt.

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5 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Jeff Sullivan's interesting take yesterday  on the recent 16k performance. Apparently Paxton threw the four seamer up high in the zone all night, the first time he's done so in, well, ever.  He got 25 swinging strikes on it -- just the four seam fastball -- his highest career single game total. Second highest: 14. Could be a watershed moment.

 

Were these pitches still in the strike zone or were they up out of the zone? If they were strikes, then perhaps. If some or most were balls, then it won't really be a watershed moment. Because when he does it enough and there's enough film on it, hitters will start to lay off of them. 

 

I am curious where this leads, though.

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