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Trey Burton 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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10 hours ago, fakespike said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/beargoggleson.com/2018/06/15/trey-burton-lead-chicago-bears-receiving/amp/

 

 

After watching a week of OTA practices, Brad Biggs of the Chicago-Tribune is reallyhigh on Burton and sees him as a candidate to lead the team in receiving. When asked who he thought would lead the team in receiving he mentioned Allen Robinson, but also stated that Burton will be in the mix.

Also in the mix to lead the team will probably be tight end Trey Burton. As far as tops in touchdown catches, I’d probably go with Robinson or Burton.

 

 

The TD comment in particular surprises me. We'll have to see how he's utilized I suppose. 

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Not sure why there isn’t much buzz on this guy..

 

i know he wasn’t having a good camp due to his inexperienced in blocking.

 

Maybe this help but he fell to me in the 11 round but his ADP was around 80

 

 

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I confess I didn't know much about Burton and got confused by the comments about Burton not blocking well. A TE who can't block? That sounds as useful as a QB who can't throw.

 

But I found this article on how Nagy sees him:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-trey-burton-tight-ends-20180713-story.html

[

Coach Matt Nagy’s offense showcases what he calls the “U” tight end, for which Burton was signed. The newness of this position to the Bears — and its recent success with the Chiefs and three-time Pro Bowler Travis Kelce — adds layers of intrigue and excitement to the identity the Bears offense is forming. Nagy described the position as: “Kind of the wide receiver/tight end. You play the slot position. You can move around, do different things. It’s easy to create some plays for.” The position is so important to Nagy’s offense that he laid it out for general manager Ryan Pace while the two flew to Chicago on the January day Nagy was hired. For Pace, Burton immediately came to mind as a free-agent target. 

]

 

If indeed he plays more of a slot, that's  could be a very valuable fantasy TE to have :)

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18 minutes ago, Brettg57 said:

Adam Shaheen worries me. I don't know what he did this off season, but the dude looks like a beast out there. Trey will IMO be a better real life TE then fantasy.. 

Really? So they paid burton like 30 mill to watch shaheen?

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10 minutes ago, hard1 said:

Really? So they paid burton like 30 mill to watch shaheen?

 

The argument works both ways. They didn’t spend a 2nd rounder on Shaheen, a raw player player not even in FBS, to bury him in the Depth Chart. Shaheen will line up in line a lot more and Burton as a split out. I expect Burton to get more targets as a whole, but I also believe especially on the GL Shaheen might be a big hinderance to Burton. I think Shaheen fits better in goal line packages. 

 

I really lik Burton, and really like the upside, but I don’t think it should be treated as a complete absurditity that Shaheen might even be the better TE. That’s not all that crazy to me. You get a lot of offensive weapons so that you have a lot of offensive weapons. 

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6 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

The argument works both ways. They didn’t spend a 2nd rounder on Shaheen, a raw player player not even in FBS, to bury him in the Depth Chart. Shaheen will line up in line a lot more and Burton as a split out. I expect Burton to get more targets as a whole, but I also believe especially on the GL Shaheen might be a big hinderance to Burton. I think Shaheen fits better in goal line packages. 

 

I really lik Burton, and really like the upside, but I don’t think it should be treated as a complete absurditity that Shaheen might even be the better TE. That’s not all that crazy to me. You get a lot of offensive weapons so that you have a lot of offensive weapons. 

 

Coach Nagy likes two TE sets and Burton will also line up in the slot.

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Just now, Nguvocity said:

 

Coach Nagy likes two TE sets and Burton will also line up in the slot.

 

I agree he’ll be split out more. But if he’s just one part of the passing attack and doesn’t take a premium goal line role, he may fail to emerge to the level many are expecting. While I am saying it’s possible, I’m not knocking Burton because I think Shaheen will be BETTER, just that I personally think there’s enough mouths to feed including at TE that Burton’s expectations IMO have gone a little too high. Shaheen doesn’t need to be better to be a hinderance. 

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2 minutes ago, ccimore said:

This coaching staff did not draft shaheen.

Coaching staff didn't, but the front office did. Ryan Pace finds a way to get "his" guys on the field.. Ala Trubisky when Fox wanted no part. That coaching staff narrative only works in some scenarios. 

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8 minutes ago, ccimore said:

This coaching staff did not draft shaheen.

 

4 minutes ago, Brettg57 said:

Coaching staff didn't, but the front office did. Ryan Pace finds a way to get "his" guys on the field.. Ala Trubisky when Fox wanted no part. That coaching staff narrative only works in some scenarios. 

 

This. It’s Pace’s team more than Nagys still. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:

 

 

This. It’s Pace’s team more than Nagys still. 

 

I don’t understand why Pace would pay the guy top TE money.

Especially since they have “baby gronk” in Shaheen.

 

I wouldn’t trust Burton to be your main TE but I think he has the most upside.

 

he is the J.Reed / A.Hernandez type player.

 

all are gator tight ends too..

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8 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I confess I didn't know much about Burton and got confused by the comments about Burton not blocking well. A TE who can't block? That sounds as useful as a QB who can't throw.

 

But I found this article on how Nagy sees him:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-trey-burton-tight-ends-20180713-story.html

[

Coach Matt Nagy’s offense showcases what he calls the “U” tight end, for which Burton was signed. The newness of this position to the Bears — and its recent success with the Chiefs and three-time Pro Bowler Travis Kelce — adds layers of intrigue and excitement to the identity the Bears offense is forming. Nagy described the position as: “Kind of the wide receiver/tight end. You play the slot position. You can move around, do different things. It’s easy to create some plays for.” The position is so important to Nagy’s offense that he laid it out for general manager Ryan Pace while the two flew to Chicago on the January day Nagy was hired. For Pace, Burton immediately came to mind as a free-agent target. 

]

 

If indeed he plays more of a slot, that's  could be a very valuable fantasy TE to have :)

 

Image result for this guy gets it gif

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If yall watched Burton at Florida and his limited time in Philly he is super athletic, played WR, wildcat QB, TE at florida.

 

Dedicated TE in philly behind ertz who was all pro and burton filled in seamlessly when ertz was hurt.

 

Burton is a very good route runner and will be a great safety blanket for Trubisky.

 

Im all in on him this year as a big time sleeper TE.

 

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

If yall watched Burton at Florida and his limited time in Philly he is super athletic, played WR, wildcat QB, TE at florida.

 

Dedicated TE in philly behind ertz who was all pro and burton filled in seamlessly when ertz was hurt.

 

Burton is a very good route runner and will be a great safety blanket for Trubisky.

 

Im all in on him this year as a big time sleeper TE.

 

 

As an Eagle fan I got to see a ton of Burton. I'm a huge fan. You hit it on the head. He's a great route runner that's more in the WR mold. He can also throw the ball and may be good for a couple trick plays. Just sayin. 

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15 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

As an Eagle fan I got to see a ton of Burton. I'm a huge fan. You hit it on the head. He's a great route runner that's more in the WR mold. He can also throw the ball and may be good for a couple trick plays. Just sayin. 

Yeah, no kidding.

 

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man, this kid is smooooooove - price of poker goin' up, but he's one cat i will reach for.  hell or high water, he will be my TE of record on all three magick foosball squads circa 2018.

 

we will have a great hang up in here this season - we gonna fly high as this beast ascends to top 5 status.

 

Image result for counting money gif

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I agree with @taobball that there is quite a bit of risk that Shaheen will chip into Burton's fantasy value. 

 

I also think that Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel, and Tarik Cohen is a surprisingly good and diverse set of receivers that will cause Trubisky to spread the ball around. 


Don't get me wrong, I really like Burton's game and I think he'll have a nice role in the offense, but all this talk of him playing the "Travis Kelce role" feels like a bit of hot air to me for these reasons:

 

1) Burton is not in Kelce's class from a physicality standpoint. Burton is listed 6'3" and 235 LBs. Kelce is 6'6" and 260 LBs. 

2) Burton has more competition for targets than Kelce ever did. Kelce was more or less the #1 receiver in the Chiefs offense, even with Tyreek Hill's emergence. The Chiefs never had another talented TE who demanded targets the way Shaheen does/will, and the Chiefs historically have one fantasy viable WR and the rest of the WRs are barely involved. 

3) Trubisky is still relatively unproven. I'm a big fan of Trubisky and think he will become a very good QB in real life and fantasy, but it feels like someone in this receiving corps is bound to disappoint this year, unless Trubisky has a borderline QB1/high-end QB2 season. As a Trubisky owner in dynasty I'm rooting for him, but I don't feel comfortable doubling down and investing in Burton for the reasons listed above. 

 

If I had to make a prediction, I'd guess Burton sees around 85 targets, catching 55 balls for 600 yards and 6 TDs. 

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I definitely wouldn't call Burton a "sleeper" at this point - he's the #10 TE off the board, so he's already being drafted as a TE1.  I do prefer him to the #9 TE, Jordan Reed, but other than that I think his ADP is right around what it should be.  He has the upside and ceiling to be a stud fantasy TE, but as others have pointed out there are several obstacles and unknowns, which also keeps his floor relatively low.

 

He got a big contract, but it's essentially a 2-year deal with 2 option years on the end.  He not only has to compete with some pretty capable WR's for targets, but he also has to compete with another good pass catching TE.  But the biggest question mark for me is Trubisky - if he can make a sophomore leap like Wentz or Goff then I think more than one fantasy-relevant target can be sustained.  If this is more of a growing and learning year for Trubisky though, it could be a rough year for any of the Bears' pass catchers.  

 

The potential and physical ability is certainly there, but I do think he's being valued pretty fairly right now.  There is a pretty steep drop off in TE after Burton, so I might reach a little for him, but he could just as easily go the way of someone like Coby Fleener.  I'm not comparing their talent and physical abilities necessarily, but when you're drafting a TE based solely on projections and potential, you always have the possibility of ending up with a dud.

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14 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

If I had to make a prediction, I'd guess Burton sees around 85 targets, catching 55 balls for 600 yards and 6 TDs. 

 

Sounds about right.

 

As a Burton Owner, I'm hoping for more catches and yards but I'll take this. It's basically what Evan Engram did last year; 64 catches, 722 yards, 6 TD's. 

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11 minutes ago, cousinal111 said:

 

Sounds about right.

 

As a Burton Owner, I'm hoping for more catches and yards but I'll take this. It's basically what Evan Engram did last year; 64 catches, 722 yards, 6 TD's. 

 

Right, but Engram needed 115 targets to reach those numbers, and was the de facto #1 receiver on the Giants once all of their WRs went down with injury. I might need to lower my projection for Burton now that you point that out...

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2 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Right, but Engram needed 115 targets to reach those numbers, and was the de facto #1 receiver on the Giants once all of their WRs went down with injury. I might need to lower my projection for Burton now that you point that out...

 

Engram also had more drops than the Patriots team so he could have ended up with 80, 900, 8.

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