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Josh Hader 2018 Outlook


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Reminds me of Mariano Rivera.  He has a pitch in the fastball that is almost unhittable even when thrown down the middle of the plate like Rivera had with his cutter.

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5 hours ago, dele said:

He can only throw two pitches for strikes consistently. He's all fastball-slider with a very occasional changeup. He won't start until or unless he can find a way to throw a third pitch for a strike.

True, an ace starter is more valuable than a knockout reliever, but a knockout reliever is probably more valuable than your average number two starter, and there's a risk with Hader that trying to convert him to a starter would diminish his effectiveness out of the pen. If they can get 100 innings out of him with 160+ strikeouts and crazy ratios, they may be satisfied with that. And that's not even considering how big he could be in a playoff series, if/when they make it to one.

I don't really disagree with anything said here but again, sometimes that risk is worth taking. He could be as effective as Sale. And the only way to see if he could handle it is to try. If it doesn't work, throw him back in the bullpen. 

Would you put Sale in Boston's bullpen so he could impact more high leverage situations throughout the week? 

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Hader is a freak. His deception kills batters. Wish I owned him. He'll need a 3rd pitch if he wants to be a successful starter, but his improved walk rate thus far is a nice sign for him. I doubt he's starting this year if the Brewers are in contention, but it'll be something to look out for in the offseason. He's made 0 career starts so it's way too early for the Brewers to just throw the towel on him being a starter. 

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9 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

I don't really disagree with anything said here but again, sometimes that risk is worth taking. He could be as effective as Sale. And the only way to see if he could handle it is to try. If it doesn't work, throw him back in the bullpen. 

Would you put Sale in Boston's bullpen so he could impact more high leverage situations throughout the week? 

 

Chris Sale:

Fastball 58.7%

Slider 24.4%

Changeup 16.9%

 

Josh Hader:

Fastball 68.6%

Slider 29.6%

Changeup 1.1%

 

 

Bolded is the big reason people are saying you can't just compare him to Sale.

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He was a starter in the minors,  and was supposed to start for the Brewers. I thought they put him in the bullpen just to ease him into major league hitting. 

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5 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Chris Sale:

Fastball 58.7%

Slider 24.4%

Changeup 16.9%

 

Josh Hader:

Fastball 68.6%

Slider 29.6%

Changeup 1.1%

 

 

Bolded is the big reason people are saying you can't just compare him to Sale.

Is this % of usage? If so, it makes perfect sense. They had him abandoned his changeup when they moved him to the pen. He did have one before converting to a reliever. 

Again, I'm not saying he is Sale. I'm saying he could be as effective as Sale. 

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1 minute ago, DannyMcPot said:

Is this % of usage? If so, it makes perfect sense. They had him abandoned his changeup when they moved him to the pen. He did have one before converting to a reliever. 

Again, I'm not saying he is Sale. I'm saying he could be as effective as Sale. 

 

Do you have a source that shows he used his changeup much before being in the pen and if so how effective it was?

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Just now, DannyMcPot said:

Is this % of usage? If so, it makes perfect sense. They had him abandoned his changeup when they moved him to the pen. He did have one before converting to a reliever. 

Again, I'm not saying he is Sale. I'm saying he could be as effective as Sale. 

 

Sale was exclusively a fastball/slider guy when he pitched out of the pen as well. When Hader pitched extended outings last year he threw his changeup more (7%) and that number would surely go up as a starter and as he had more of a chance to develop it.

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1 minute ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Do you have a source that shows he used his changeup much before being in the pen and if so how effective it was?

Not on hand, but I'm sure someone could find it. I've followed Hader since the minors and know he threw 3 pitches and struggled with command. The change up was his worst pitch but it's not necessary when coming out of the BP. 

His slider command was also all over the place when he was in the minors and has only recently shown better control over it in the majors. Who's to say he couldn't do the same with the change up? 

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8 minutes ago, DannyMcPot said:

Not on hand, but I'm sure someone could find it. I've followed Hader since the minors and know he threw 3 pitches and struggled with command. The change up was his worst pitch but it's not necessary when coming out of the BP. 

His slider command was also all over the place when he was in the minors and has only recently shown better control over it in the majors. Who's to say he couldn't do the same with the change up? 

 

Thank you

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7 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Thank you

https://www.mlb.com/news/brewers-josh-hader-working-on-changeup/c-218614080

Article last spring about trying to improve his changeup. 

"He figures he threw about 10 percent changeups last season. That's about the right ratio to play off his fastball and slider, Hader said. He just wants to make the changeup -- which he describes as "a messed-up circle change" -- better."

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2 hours ago, dod959 said:

There are tons of SPs nowadays with only 2 pitches. Only got fastball/slider, how is that different than Chris Archer, for example? 

 

It's possible right now he's Archer and with a change up he's Sale. 

 

Exactly why Hader should remain in the pen, at least for this year.

 

"It's possible right now he's Archer" is not a reason to have him start. 

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46 minutes ago, 9703 said:

 

Exactly why Hader should remain in the pen, at least for this year.

 

"It's possible right now he's Archer" is not a reason to have him start. 

 

You can't keep a guy with a 0.42 FIP and 20 K/9 in the bullpen. He is beyond relief ace at this point. He is posting numbers you would expect an elite SP to post if they somehow found themselves in the pen. 

 

63% K!!! Hader is not Kershaw but this is like if Kershaw was in the bullpen. 

 

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17 minutes ago, dod959 said:

 

You can't keep a guy with a 0.42 FIP and 20 K/9 in the bullpen. He is beyond relief ace at this point. He is posting numbers you would expect an elite SP to post if they somehow found themselves in the pen. 

 

63% K!!! Hader is not Kershaw but this is like if Kershaw was in the bullpen. 

 

 

They're not just going to move him to the rotation in the middle of the season, especially considering his value to the team right now. 

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On ‎5‎/‎1‎/‎2018 at 2:52 PM, AllNoAll said:

He was a starter in the minors,  and was supposed to start for the Brewers. I thought they put him in the bullpen just to ease him into major league hitting. 

Yeah, he was technically a starter in the minors.  But, he was pitching for the Astros.  They have a weird tendency of limiting innings of their pitching prospects and would have him pitch 4 innings or so, before turning it over to another potential "starter".  I remember watching the box scores and thinking how would his stats translate to going thru the order a 3rd time, where there's often some regression. 

 

For this reason, I don't think he was ever fully developed as a starter in terms of stamina.  If you look at his innings pitched in the minors, most years hovered around 100, and when you look at the number of starts, he should have gone more innings.

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Heh, I just assumed that Hader was a Brewers draft pick.

 

The Orioles originally drafted him & traded him to the Astros for Bud Norris in 2013.  They also traded Jake Arrieta to the Cubs for Scott Feldman that year.  If you’re a GM, that’s getting it done!  Maybe they should go ahead and fold their franchise.  It’s only right.

 

And then the Astros traded Hader to the Brewers in 2015 for Carlos Gomez.  At least Gomez was awesome at the time - few could have predicted his precipitous decline.  Plus, the Astros are world champions, and they possess an embarrassment of riches.  Still though, the Houston front office people have to be kicking themselves over the Hader trade.

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5 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

are people still going to keep him in during those 4 Coors games?

 

is he that insane he can beat it?

 

I would own Adam Ottavino - they are prettt similar...

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this thread reminds me of Devenski thread when he broke out, there were endless debate about whether he should be tried as a starter. Noone wins that debate though. I've seen it over and over again.

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