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Masahiro Tanaka 2018 Outlook


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[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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Strikeouts really shot up in 2017. He's got a chronically ineffective fastball, and he's trended away from throwing it. The dude has a filthy splitter, can see the elite K rate sticking if it stays. 

However, even more important to me, the elbow. How big are the concerns for the guy over the long haul? I trust him in year to year leagues, but I'd hate to have my wagon hitched to him in a dynasty. (Full disclosure : I do, in fact, own him in a dynasty, and I do hate it). 


What are your feelings about him for 2018? 

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Tanaka is a guy who I think could be underrated going into this coming draft season. Did you see what he did in the second half? Masahiro Tanaka’s 2nd half splits: 10.7 K/9, 1.65 Bb/9, 3.77 ERA, .229

Ok 35th in my league.   That's above the meh-ndoza line.   Yup, its a thing. Now. ?

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There will probably be decent value on Tanaka because of how bad he was last year overall.  I own him in a Dynasty and I'm fine just hanging on to him. If his elbow explodes, it explodes. Anyone's elbow can explode.  It hasn't limited in the last few years.  Very few pitchers throw above 150 IP these days, so I think Tanaka is actually much  less risky than usual.  It's pretty hard to unload him in Dynasty, so I think he's probably a hold.

 

For one more year, he's surprisingly under 30 years old despite looking 45. 

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He will be a value this year no doubt, the high ERA pitching in that park and the elbow concerns which everyone seems to view as a ticking bomb, although its held up OK as he has put up back to back 30 start seasons. 

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Tanaka is a guy who I think could be underrated going into this coming draft season. Did you see what he did in the second half? Masahiro Tanaka’s 2nd half splits: 10.7 K/9, 1.65 Bb/9, 3.77 ERA, .229 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. Started using both his Slider (+4%) & Splitter (+3.9%) more than FB. Culminated in his playoff start vs Indians, 15 of his 92 pitches were FB. His fastball has long been fairly ineffective, and he decided to adjust in the same way that Trevor Bauer (who I'm a big fan of this coming season!) did in the second half, and throw his best pitches more often and throw his worst pitches less. Also of note in the 2nd half, Tanaka had the third best xFIP, a glorious 2.83, and a 2nd-to-only Kluber K/BB of 6.5. Pretty impressive stuff! If you believe he can continue to baffle hitters by pitching backwards and stay healthy, I think he's a guy who could return solid value around the 100th overall pick. 

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  • 3 months later...
1 minute ago, rich22 said:

watching game?    should be 2-0, at worst.   Awful defense.  should be 4 errors

Well hopefully the scorers go back and change it as such. Brutal fantasy start otherwise. 

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1 minute ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Well hopefully the scorers go back and change it as such. Brutal fantasy start otherwise. 

 

 

either way, no doubt.  Not a good outing, but shouldn't be 6 ER or 10 baserunners

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10 minutes ago, rich22 said:

 

 

either way, no doubt.  Not a good outing, but shouldn't be 6 ER or 10 baserunners

Good. That makes me feel better about it. At least come next week. 

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Buy low or run away? It wasn't like tonight was his only rough start statistically, gave up 6 ER at BOS too. That said I haven't seen much of his starts so I'm not sure how he's actually looking. 

 

Advanced stats would imply some bad luck, but he also had an increase in HR/FB last year that's a bit worrisome. According to the box score today though he never even gave up a FB? So does seem like bad luck / defense to give up 6 ER on 13 GB / 0 FB. 

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7 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

Buy low or run away? It wasn't like tonight was his only rough start statistically, gave up 6 ER at BOS too. That said I haven't seen much of his starts so I'm not sure how he's actually looking. 

 

Advanced stats would imply some bad luck, but he also had an increase in HR/FB last year that's a bit worrisome. According to the box score today though he never even gave up a FB? So does seem like bad luck / defense to give up 6 ER on 13 GB / 0 FB. 

 

 

he pitched bad, not as awful as box score.  the defense was horrible/  with a flawless D he gives up just 2 runs.   

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

Anyone holding onto Tanaka? He's had an ERA north of 10 each of the last two starts. I don't think I can give him much more leash. 

I'm not a fan of Tanaka.  I'm not sure why I drafted him...was hoping last year was a down year I guess.  I have no faith in him when he's pitching.


Still very difficult to drop him because when he's on he's lights out.  It's still early so hopefully he'll heat up as the weather does.

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4 hours ago, trojans888 said:

You are probalby a month away from dropping him.  Just stop.

 

Just stop? Lol okay. And no, I'm not a month away. I've got a few days to cut one of two SP.

 

The thing is this, Tanaka was unrosterable for most of the first half of last year. I had high hopes coming in that 2016 was an anamoly, but he's struggled these last two outings. We'll see what he does Monday, but I'm having flashbacks to last year with him. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
6 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Some positive regression should be coming. He has a good K%, fantastic BB%, and is currently sporting a 61.8% strand rate. I think he will settle in as a 3.5 ERA guy moving forward.

 

I hope you're right, but I feel less confident. His FIP is 4.34, which is close to 2017's 4.31 FIP (4.74 ERA). His k% is lower than last year's, and his bb% is very similar to last year. His fb% as it stands now would be a career high, and his gb% is well lower than his career norms. 

 

It would seem that things point to a positive regression, and I hope they do. I'm jist skeptical right now. 

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12 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

He sure is meh.

I think a lot of people would be “meh” after facing the Red Sox in Yankee Stadium. It wasn’t great but it could’ve been a lot worse. At least he didn’t go all Dylan Bundy. 

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On 5/10/2018 at 10:28 AM, aMediumPace said:

I think a lot of people would be “meh” after facing the Red Sox in Yankee Stadium. It wasn’t great but it could’ve been a lot worse. At least he didn’t go all Dylan Bundy. 

He has been meh for the season

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On 5/11/2018 at 8:41 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

He has been meh for the season

 ? He's had 8 starts - 5 of which have been good/really good.  Maybe he's been somewhat inconsistent start to start, but I wouldn't say he's been 'meh'.  Starting him today @ WAS. 

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1 hour ago, ranger danger said:

 ? He's had 8 starts - 5 of which have been good/really good.  Maybe he's been somewhat inconsistent start to start, but I wouldn't say he's been 'meh'.  Starting him today @ WAS. 

Sounds like he’s been pretty meh too me. 4.76 ERA? Meh....

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