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Masahiro Tanaka 2018 Outlook


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You clearly struggle to interpret stats then. Are his cumulative numbers great right now? No, but he’s pitched effectively / been a positive contributor in a majority of his starts. In 5 of his 8 starts, he has a WHIP under 1.00 (all QS) and he’s right at a k/inning so far for the season. If you’re looking solely at his cumulative numbers you’re misguided. That’s not to say he’s been consistent, and homers have again been an issue in his off starts, but he’s still a very high upside pitcher who can dominate for long stretches.

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42 minutes ago, ranger danger said:

You clearly struggle to interpret stats then. Are his cumulative numbers great right now? No, but he’s pitched effectively / been a positive contributor in a majority of his starts. In 5 of his 8 starts, he has a WHIP under 1.00 (all QS) and he’s right at a k/inning so far for the season. If you’re looking solely at his cumulative numbers you’re misguided. That’s not to say he’s been consistent, and homers have again been an issue in his off starts, but he’s still a very high upside pitcher who can dominate for long stretches.

I'm interpreting them just fine. I like Tanaka. He has some good and he has some bad. He's been inconsistent. High upside? Ok...he hasn't pitched to it yet this year and it's not like that started this year. Last year he was "meh" too.

 

Meh.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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8 hours ago, ranger danger said:

You clearly struggle to interpret stats then. Are his cumulative numbers great right now? No, but he’s pitched effectively / been a positive contributor in a majority of his starts. In 5 of his 8 starts, he has a WHIP under 1.00 (all QS) and he’s right at a k/inning so far for the season. If you’re looking solely at his cumulative numbers you’re misguided. That’s not to say he’s been consistent, and homers have again been an issue in his off starts, but he’s still a very high upside pitcher who can dominate for long stretches.

As long as I know exactly which starts he will be good in, he will be good for my team. 

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17 minutes ago, 2ndCitySox said:

As long as I know exactly which starts he will be good in, he will be good for my team. 

You don’t know what starts he will be good in? You must be like me and clearly struggle to interpret stats.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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6 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Tanaka was taken out after 72 pitches. Aaron Boone is a doofus.

 

Rain delay may have taken care of him anyway.  Not a Boone apologist at all, but perhaps he didn't want him to go through the lineup a 3rd time.  Heart of the Nats lineup were coming up.

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10 hours ago, ranger danger said:

You clearly struggle to interpret stats then. Are his cumulative numbers great right now? No, but he’s pitched effectively / been a positive contributor in a majority of his starts. In 5 of his 8 starts, he has a WHIP under 1.00 (all QS) and he’s right at a k/inning so far for the season. If you’re looking solely at his cumulative numbers you’re misguided. That’s not to say he’s been consistent, and homers have again been an issue in his off starts, but he’s still a very high upside pitcher who can dominate for long stretches.

 

Here's a number I interpret just fine...his cumulative ERA, which is what counts in my roto league. And his FIP says his ERA is pretty accurate...so he's meh. It's great that he's had 5 good starts out of 8. He's sucked bad enough in the other three to make his overall ERA "meh". 

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Okay if you can't see that a 1.10 WHIP doesn't correlate with a high-4 ERA that's your own deal.  I'm not sure you realize how much of an impact 1-2 games has in an 8 game sample size.  Take away his bad start against Boston and he has a sub-4 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP - not really all that useful of an exercise, but it illustrates just how much individual games play into cumulative stats at this point. Anyway, take this as a public service announcement it seems like he could be had for 'meh' prices right now.

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14 minutes ago, ranger danger said:

Okay if you can't see that a 1.10 WHIP doesn't correlate with a high-4 ERA that's your own deal.  I'm not sure you realize how much of an impact 1-2 games has in an 8 game sample size.  Take away his bad start against Boston and he has a sub-4 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP - not really all that useful of an exercise, but it illustrates just how much individual games play into cumulative stats at this point. Anyway, take this as a public service announcement it seems like he could be had for 'meh' prices right now.

Sure but he was pretty meh last year too but had a hot finish. I am not selling him at meh prices, but I feel like that is based on blind faith more than anything. I do take what you say into consideration, but I want to see him string some solid starts together.

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2 hours ago, ranger danger said:

Okay if you can't see that a 1.10 WHIP doesn't correlate with a high-4 ERA that's your own deal.  I'm not sure you realize how much of an impact 1-2 games has in an 8 game sample size.  Take away his bad start against Boston and he has a sub-4 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP - not really all that useful of an exercise, but it illustrates just how much individual games play into cumulative stats at this point. Anyway, take this as a public service announcement it seems like he could be had for 'meh' prices right now.

 

Take away one of his good starts, and he has an ERA north of 5.00. What's your point? If you can't see that his FIP is north of 4.25...if you can't see that he had a respectable 1.24 WHIP last year with a 4.74 ERA, then that's your own deal. He had a sub-1.00 WHIP a few years ago, which doesn't normally correlate with a 3.51 ERA, but Tanaka did it. One thing I've learned about Tanaka, he's fully capable of having a WHIP that's too low for his ERA and vice versa. It leads to a 2017 and 2018 of meh. 

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10 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Take away one of his good starts, and he has an ERA north of 5.00. What's your point? If you can't see that his FIP is north of 4.25...if you can't see that he had a respectable 1.24 WHIP last year with a 4.74 ERA, then that's your own deal. He had a sub-1.00 WHIP a few years ago, which doesn't normally correlate with a 3.51 ERA, but Tanaka did it. One thing I've learned about Tanaka, he's fully capable of having a WHIP that's too low for his ERA and vice versa. It leads to a 2017 and 2018 of meh. 

 

Hot take there. It’s clear you have an irrational disdain for the man. Does your league not count WHIP? He’s backed by the best offense in baseball (wins), gets right around a k/inning, and historically has a very low WHIP (including this year, despite his ‘meh’ start). So he’s contributing positively in 3 of the 4 starting pitching categories, but yeah he’s trash. 

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52 minutes ago, ranger danger said:

 

Hot take there. It’s clear you have an irrational disdain for the man. Does your league not count WHIP? He’s backed by the best offense in baseball (wins), gets right around a k/inning, and historically has a very low WHIP (including this year, despite his ‘meh’ start). So he’s contributing positively in 3 of the 4 starting pitching categories, but yeah he’s trash. 

It's the same thing you're doing. If you want to take away a bad start, he's taking away a good start. It's not different at all. 

 

And no...he's not trash. He's meh.

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1 minute ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

He gives up way too many homers. He's got no fastball anymore and with the launch angle craze, when he leaves anything hanging it's gone. He's got to basically pitch a mistake free game in order to be decent. 

Yep. His fastball might as well be a beach ball. It's not fooling anyone. 

 

But maybe you're just struggling to interpret stats like the rest of us who think he's meh.

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i feel like @ranger danger was getting gigged pretty good for his "interpretation" of tanaka's stats, but i feel he's spot on. yes, his ERA currently sits at 4.73, but the underlying metrics say he should have fared better.

steamer, ZiPS, and THE BAT all project tanaka to carry a sub 4 ERA RoS. these projections systems are based on past history and current stats to make projections. unless something has changed drastically they expect better results in the future.

currently he has the following:

  • FIP - 4.36
  • xFIP - 3.77
  • SIERA - 3.71
  • kwFIP - 3.62
  • bbFIP - 3.71
  • scFIP - 3.52

all of these metrics are designed to interpret current (2018) stats and provide an estimate of what the ERA should be. it's obvious that almost all of the metrics feel he should have better results than he does. certainly these can be wrong and/or fail to capture outliers, i'm not claiming otherwise, but to say that anyone's interpretation of his current underlying stats is wrong because they believe he's a better pitcher than just his ERA presents seems short-sighted. the metrics created specifically to interpret underlying stats support this claim.

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4 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

i feel like @ranger danger was getting gigged pretty good for his "interpretation" of tanaka's stats, but i feel he's spot on. yes, his ERA currently sits at 4.73, but the underlying metrics say he should have fared better.

steamer, ZiPS, and THE BAT all project tanaka to carry a sub 4 ERA RoS. these projections systems are based on past history and current stats to make projections. unless something has changed drastically they expect better results in the future.

currently he has the following:

  • FIP - 4.36
  • xFIP - 3.77
  • SIERA - 3.71
  • kwFIP - 3.62
  • bbFIP - 3.71
  • scFIP - 3.52

all of these metrics are designed to interpret current (2018) stats and provide an estimate of what the ERA should be. it's obvious that almost all of the metrics feel he should have better results than he does. certainly these can be wrong and/or fail to capture outliers, i'm not claiming otherwise, but to say that anyone's interpretation of his current underlying stats is wrong because they believe he's a better pitcher than just his ERA presents seems short-sighted. the metrics created specifically to interpret underlying stats support this claim.

Ranger Danger is the one that said I struggle to interpret stats because someone called Tanaka "meh" and I supported that.

 

Masahiro Tanaka has been the actual definition of "meh" the past year and however many games he has started this year.

 

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5 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Ranger Danger is the one that said I struggle to interpret stats because someone called Tanaka "meh" and I supported that.

 

Masahiro Tanaka has been the actual definition of "meh" the past year and however many games he has started this year.

 

agreed. he probably started the back-and-forth, and did it in a not so tactful manner, but i agree with his overall claim. i feel his pain, as i have made claims that were dismissed because the way in which they were presented was poor.

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He's one guy that I just don't believe the underlying metrics. He's given up homers in 7 of 9 games. His metrics support the fact that he's the same pitcher as when he first came into the league. The problem is that hitters have changed since then. His only saving grace is that he doesn't allow many baserunners. I don't think he can adapt to the changes the hitters have made. If he's going to stay the same then he will continue to give up homers. If his whip stays somewhere around 1.15 then I can live with the wins he'll get from that offense and I can live with a 4.50 Era. 

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4 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Ranger Danger is the one that said I struggle to interpret stats because someone called Tanaka "meh" and I supported that.

 

Masahiro Tanaka has been the actual definition of "meh" the past year and however many games he has started this year.

 

 

Tanaka's second half last year:

10.73 K/9

1.65 BB/9

3.77 ERA

1.06 WHIP

2.83 xFIP (3rd lowest in league)

 

So no he hasn't been meh for the past year. Not denying he has trouble with the HR (3rd highest HR/9 in baseball last year, currently 4th highest so far this year), but he's still a useful pitcher who may be 'meh' in one stat (ERA), but strong in the others.

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On 5/16/2018 at 9:30 AM, ranger danger said:

 

Tanaka's second half last year:

10.73 K/9

1.65 BB/9

3.77 ERA

1.06 WHIP

2.83 xFIP (3rd lowest in league)

 

So no he hasn't been meh for the past year. Not denying he has trouble with the HR (3rd highest HR/9 in baseball last year, currently 4th highest so far this year), but he's still a useful pitcher who may be 'meh' in one stat (ERA), but strong in the others.

Meh.

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