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Todd Gurley II 2018 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Westbrook (2), Gore (2) , Holmes (3)

 

So Holmes LT and ADP right off the bat. Doesn't seem like your point is valid. It's January though and it doesn't seem worth getting into too deep.

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1 minute ago, dmb3684 said:

 

So Holmes LT and ADP right off the bat. Doesn't seem like your point is valid. It's January though and it doesn't seem worth getting into too deep.

Oh it's valid...pigeon hole him with the group that best represents his talent & work ethic.  If he's equal to LT for you, then he's a hold.  If he's more comparable to Foster, it might be time to trade. 

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On 1/18/2018 at 2:46 PM, psygolf said:

Oh it's valid...pigeon hole him with the group that best represents his talent & work ethic.  If he's equal to LT for you, then he's a hold.  If he's more comparable to Foster, it might be time to trade. 

I don't think Fosters downfalls were talent or work ethic, just soft tissue issues. In fact I applaud both his talent and work ethic to recover from all of those issues throughout his career.

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3 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

I don't think Fosters downfalls were talent or work ethic, just soft tissue issues. In fact I applaud both his talent and work ethic to recover from all of those issues throughout his career.

There's no reason to list favorites, the point still is....it is very rare for an elite rb to log more than 4 seasons of top 5 production.   The reasons (injury/suspension) do not matter. Once they log 3, it wouldn't be a bad strategy to jump off.

 

Merely an observation of history that keeps repeating itself.

 

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Just now, psygolf said:

There's no reason to list favorites, the point still is....it is very rare for an elite rb to log more than 4 seasons of top 5 production.   The reasons (injury/suspension) do not matter. Once they log 3, it wouldn't be a bad strategy to jump off.

 

Merely an observation of history that keeps repeating itself.

 

I agree that statistically you're right on expecting Bell to eventually stop being a stud. I just thought that making it seem it was Arians work ethic/talent that made him not repeat success was a slight to a UDFA who was an absolute stud on the field. Especially because you mentioned those two reasons only, and not injury/suspension. This is the guy who wanted to play so bad he attacked a Gatorade table when he went into concussion protocol.

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3 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

I agree that statistically you're right on expecting Bell to eventually stop being a stud. I just thought that making it seem it was Arians work ethic/talent that made him not repeat success was a slight to a UDFA who was an absolute stud on the field. Especially because you mentioned those two reasons only, and not injury/suspension. This is the guy who wanted to play so bad he attacked a Gatorade table when he went into concussion protocol.

Ok, I'll play... Foster is not on the same level as LT, simple.

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Just now, psygolf said:

Ok, I'll play... Foster is not on the same level as LT, simple.

Yes, I don't think that was an argument. I was just saying that acting like work ethic and talent was the reason Foster didn't repeat top 5 finishes is completely ignoring the actual reasons.

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3 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Yes, I don't think that was an argument. I was just saying that acting like work ethic and talent was the reason Foster didn't repeat top 5 finishes is completely ignoring the actual reasons.

You're sniffing the wrong end of the horse...It was LT's supreme talent + work ethic that elevated him over his peers.   Foster was one of few that notched 4 top seasons

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4 hours ago, psygolf said:

You're sniffing the wrong end of the horse...It was LT's supreme talent + work ethic that elevated him over his peers.   Foster was one of few that notched 4 top seasons

Think we can all agree LT was special.  I mean in his special season as a Rb he scored 33 tds.  Been playing fantasy for 20 plus years and never saw anthing like him.  A RB that outscored all QB's in fantasy.  As for Gurley he was amazing last year but just like every other great season you have to expect some regression.  Just like with Charles four years ago he had a amazing finish.  Won many people championships then the next year crapped out in playoffs.   You can't always expect a player to perform like in years past.  Would still take the guy at number 1.  

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7 hours ago, youngrice said:

Would still take the guy at number 1.  

Fair enough, he earned it.  Draft Gurley 1st knowing that the top rb from last year "never" repeats the feat, but has a good chance at a top tier season.   Draft Bell with the caveat that he already has 3.5 top 5 seasons under his belt, and is starting to drag more baggage,

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15 hours ago, psygolf said:

There's no reason to list favorites, the point still is....it is very rare for an elite rb to log more than 4 seasons of top 5 production.   The reasons (injury/suspension) do not matter. Once they log 3, it wouldn't be a bad strategy to jump off.

 

Merely an observation of history that keeps repeating itself.

 

 

LOL. It was 3 seasons last page. Respect the quick pivot when you realized you were wrong though.

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52 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

LOL. It was 3 seasons last page. Respect the quick pivot when you realized you were wrong though.

I have no problem recognizing his elite production in seasons that he faced suspension...which is why I gave him a 0.5

I have not provided anything that is not supported by history.

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  • 6 months later...
2 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

Le’Veon Bell done goofed, he’s not gonna top that without going back in time a couple years age-wise

Depends on this year.  The RB market just got reset and as a true free agent you never know.

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1 minute ago, youngrice said:

Depends on this year.  The RB market just got reset and as a true free agent you never know.

 

He’s three years older than Gurley. Nobody is gonna break the bank on a RB theoretically already past their prime

 

anyway, good for Gurley. He definitely earned it

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9 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

He’s three years older than Gurley. Nobody is gonna break the bank on a RB theoretically already past their prime

 

anyway, good for Gurley. He definitely earned it

 

this. 

 

Gurley is 23, and entering his third NFL season right now... Bell will be 27 next year, and about to enter his eighth ...

 

now, Bell will get paid, but he isn't sniffing anywhere near the coin TG just bagged. 

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4 minutes ago, Sternes said:

Gurley sold himself short. 

 

Not really. He's unlikely to have as much value again as he does right now given his recent production and young age.  

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5 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Not really. He's unlikely to have as much value again as he does right now given his recent production and young age.  

 

Disagree.  When management wants to get a deal done early, they want to get you locked in to save money.   When they come to you with a huge offer they are hoping you take it because they are afraid you might get more when your current deal expires.  Gurley repeats or comes close to last year, and he probably gets another $10 million guaranteed.

 

If they were worried about him, they'd wait to see how the season plays out and see if he can replicate it.  He could have used Bell as leverage and market himself as a younger product of him with whatever Bell gets next year.

 

Obviously in the grand scheme of things Gurley is set for life. 

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Just now, Sternes said:

 

Disagree.  When management wants to get a deal done early, they want to get you locked in to save money.   When they come to you with a huge offer they are hoping you take it because they are afraid you might get more when your current deal expires.  Gurley repeats or comes close to last year, and he probably gets another $10 million guaranteed.

 

If they were worried about him, they'd wait to see how the season plays out and see if he can replicate it.  He could have used Bell as leverage and market himself as a younger product of him with whatever Bell gets next year.

 

Obviously in the grand scheme of things Gurley is set for life. 

 

The dynamics of LA are different...they need their stars locked in in order to sell the product to that community as they move into that new stadium. It's the same reason they gave Cooks money when his other teams didn't want to.

 

Gurley of all people knows how quickly perceptions can change in one season.

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That is quite a contract for a RB. Effectively 15mil/year and 3 years of that guaranteed. Will have to see how much of the guarantee they put in the 1st two years of the deal.

 

Really wondering now how much room they have left to pay Donald. I doubt they can extend Suh or Peters. And even Goff in two seasons may be rough.

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Just now, joshua18 said:

 

The dynamics of LA are different...they need their stars locked in in order to sell the product to that community as they move into that new stadium. It's the same reason they gave Cooks money when his other teams didn't want to.

 

Gurley of all people knows how quickly perceptions can change in one season.

 

Which, IMO, screams he could have pushed for more next year.  Like I said before, maybe he didn't care.  Now is now, and there are always risks.  However, I find it incredible his contract has less guaranteed money than Cooks, and $20 million less possible.

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