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Todd Gurley II 2018 Outlook


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9 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

in all fairness, any GM who made any of these deals should probably be fired, but very good point about the salary differences

Howie Roseman is the one who signed Torrey Smith to his current deal. But dealt him to Carolina for peanuts. Smith's salary isn't guaranteed.

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

The dynamics of LA are different...they need their stars locked in in order to sell the product to that community as they move into that new stadium. It's the same reason they gave Cooks money when his other teams didn't want to.

 

Gurley of all people knows how quickly perceptions can change in one season.

 

Bingo

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10 hours ago, Evincar said:

Good for Gurley but when are they finally going to give an extension to their best player?

 

Believe it or not, the signings of Cook and Gurley help signing AD. The Rams have basically the lowest future cap hit in the league, and extending these guys now allows for us to frontload some of the contracts (Cooks, Gurley) and probably backload the others (AD, Goff). 

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1 hour ago, afl5013 said:

 

Believe it or not, the signings of Cook and Gurley help signing AD. The Rams have basically the lowest future cap hit in the league, and extending these guys now allows for us to frontload some of the contracts (Cooks, Gurley) and probably backload the others (AD, Goff). 

NFL teams don't backload contracts.

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49 minutes ago, devaster said:

NFL teams don't backload contracts.

 

Is that like a rule or just rarely happens? If that was the only way to keep all 4, I don't see why they wouldn't back load them, especially for the franchise QB and top defensive player who both will most likely won't be getting cut towards the end. 

 

In any event, front loading Gurley and Cooks should help allow for the other guys as long as they aren't front loaded as well. 

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13 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

 

Is that like a rule or just rarely happens? If that was the only way to keep all 4, I don't see why they wouldn't back load them, especially for the franchise QB and top defensive player who both will most likely won't be getting cut towards the end. 

 

In any event, front loading Gurley and Cooks should help allow for the other guys as long as they aren't front loaded as well. 

Probably has to do with the way guarantees/signing bonus/etc. get spread out over the length of a contract. Also backloading a contract would essentially be a fully guaranteed contract in that it locks a team into the contract for the full length. NFL teams frontload specifically so they can reduce the cap number near-term and when the cap balloons the guarantees are gone and the player can be cut if no longer performing.

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Where do you guys rank him amongst the big 4 RBs if you have an early pick? In my .5 PPR I put them Zeke, Gurley, Bell, then DJ. It seems like Bell is racking up a lot of tread on the tires at this point and Arizona is going to be putrid. 

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20 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Where do you guys rank him amongst the big 4 RBs if you have an early pick? In my .5 PPR I put them Zeke, Gurley, Bell, then DJ. It seems like Bell is racking up a lot of tread on the tires at this point and Arizona is going to be putrid. 

 

Gurley

Zeke

Bell

DJ

 

I'm not as big on Bell as most, either.  As you said, lots of tread on the tires.  While the contract thing probably won't be an issue, it's still kinda sitting there in the corner of the room.  I'd have DJ ahead of him as well, but the uncertainly at QB, gives me pause.  However, sitting at 1.03, gun to my head, I probably say eff it and take DJ.

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26 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Where do you guys rank him amongst the big 4 RBs if you have an early pick? In my .5 PPR I put them Zeke, Gurley, Bell, then DJ. It seems like Bell is racking up a lot of tread on the tires at this point and Arizona is going to be putrid. 

I have the 1.01 in our upcoming draft(0.5 PPR) and I don't see anything that's gonna make me change from selecting Gurley.

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53 minutes ago, owenmills said:

Where do you guys rank him amongst the big 4 RBs if you have an early pick? In my .5 PPR I put them Zeke, Gurley, Bell, then DJ. It seems like Bell is racking up a lot of tread on the tires at this point and Arizona is going to be putrid. 

1. Elliot

2. Johnson

3. Bell

4. Gurley

 

I like Gurley. In fact, I was targeting him in every draft I can last year with his ADP. However, the season last year seems like an overachievement from the entire offense. Finished first in points despite being #10 in yards. The offense is going to be good, Gurley is going to be good, and the team overall is going to be good. However, I also expect Gurley and the offense to decrease pretty dramatically. 

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Rams should have a tougher schedule this year too. I think it's okay to overthink between Gurley, Bell, and Elliott. Johnson is an easy #4 though.

 

I think I would actually go back and forth between Gurley and Elliott.

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Why is Barkley not in the discussion as well? He is also extremely talented and in a situation where he will likely get fed like no other. Sure he is a rookie and has his questions but so do the other 4.

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17 minutes ago, tpat30 said:

Rams should have a tougher schedule this year too. I think it's okay to overthink between Gurley, Bell, and Elliott. Johnson is an easy #4 though.

 

I think I would actually go back and forth between Gurley and Elliott.

Are you sure because If we examine the 2017 season outlook on Gurley the Rams had the toughest schedule last season and he did pretty fine. Examining SOS this early is an absolute joke because no one knows how good or bad teams will be. Last season all I heard was how bad his playoff schedule was, yet somehow he had 130 and 2 TDs,180 and 4 TDs and 270 and 2 TDs.

You should never move a player up or down in your rankings because of SOS, it’s a joke of a stat. Now if you want to decide which RB you start in week 7 based off of what those defenses have done in the first 6 weeks that’s an ok thing to do, but not drafting someone because they play an “elite” defense in week 7 that has yet to play a single snap is not a good thing to do. (I have no clue who they play in week 7, I just choose a random number)

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17 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Why is Barkley not in the discussion as well? He is also extremely talented and in a situation where he will likely get fed like no other. Sure he is a rookie and has his questions but so do the other 4.

 

For me he's not in the top 4 discussion 

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17 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Why is Barkley not in the discussion as well? He is also extremely talented and in a situation where he will likely get fed like no other. Sure he is a rookie and has his questions but so do the other 4.

 

He definitely could be.  I just think at the top 4-6 picks some people prefer known commodities.  They all have question marks, but all four of those RBs have shown what they can do at the NFL level.  Again - not advocating for or against Barkley - just saying why some may be a little hesitant with a pick that needs to be as close to a sure thing as possible (obviously no sure things in sports/fantasy).

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

1. Elliot

2. Johnson

3. Bell

4. Gurley

 

I like Gurley. In fact, I was targeting him in every draft I can last year with his ADP. However, the season last year seems like an overachievement from the entire offense. Finished first in points despite being #10 in yards. The offense is going to be good, Gurley is going to be good, and the team overall is going to be good. However, I also expect Gurley and the offense to decrease pretty dramatically. 

 

1 hour ago, tpat30 said:

Rams should have a tougher schedule this year too. I think it's okay to overthink between Gurley, Bell, and Elliott. Johnson is an easy #4 though.

 

I think I would actually go back and forth between Gurley and Elliott.

 

Anyone crazy enough to believe that Gurley is going to fall to ADP 3 or 4 is crazy...And if he does, you should probably re-examine the league your in...Or make it a $$$ league due to playing against idiots lol.

 

Those who know me know I was NOT on the Gurley train prior to last season. I posted regularly about Gurley being in Fisher's offense and how I thought Gurley was going to continue stinking unless they got a new scheme. 

 

They got a new scheme, he performed better, (hell he performed better than anyone could have imagined), and we saw a jaw-dropping career year, that lead most owners to a championship.

 

You might see an owner or two take Bell over Gurley, but you just can't pass up on Gurley after the year and usage he had last year.

 

On paper, they are saying that LAR SOS is the worst this year. But, like last year, they said the same thing...So it's hard to predict.

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1 hour ago, CORTEz said:

 

 

Anyone crazy enough to believe that Gurley is going to fall to ADP 3 or 4 is crazy...And if he does, you should probably re-examine the league your in...Or make it a $$$ league due to playing against idiots lol.

 

Those who know me know I was NOT on the Gurley train prior to last season. I posted regularly about Gurley being in Fisher's offense and how I thought Gurley was going to continue stinking unless they got a new scheme. 

 

They got a new scheme, he performed better, (hell he performed better than anyone could have imagined), and we saw a jaw-dropping career year, that lead most owners to a championship.

 

You might see an owner or two take Bell over Gurley, but you just can't pass up on Gurley after the year and usage he had last year.

 

On paper, they are saying that LAR SOS is the worst this year. But, like last year, they said the same thing...So it's hard to predict.

Gurley falling to 3 isn't crazy at all. Any order for those 4 is reasonable.

Mine is

Zeke - will catch a lot more passes, think he's the Gurley of 2018

Gurley - maybe a little less usage, probable td regression, but still a beast

DJ - coming off injury, but not one that should recur; think the qb situation won't hurt him, and might him catch even more passes than 2016

Bell - tough to drop him here, and my only hesitation with him is the heavy usage last year and possible injury(ies) as a result

 

But anyway you order it makes sense. I'm a bit higher on Zeke, but whoever one gets of those guys should be happy.

 

The real questions start at 5: AB, AK41, or Barkley?

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1 minute ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Gurley falling to 3 isn't crazy at all. Any order for those 4 is reasonable.

Mine is

Zeke - will catch a lot more passes, think he's the Gurley of 2018

Gurley - maybe a little less usage, probable td regression, but still a beast

DJ - coming off injury, but not one that should recur; think the qb situation won't hurt him, and might him catch even more passes than 2016

Bell - tough to drop him here, and my only hesitation with him is the heavy usage last year and possible injury(ies) as a result

 

But anyway you order it makes sense. I'm a bit higher on Zeke, but whoever one gets of those guys should be happy.

 

The real questions start at 5: AB, AK41, or Barkley?

The Rams are a Super Bowl contender, Bell is coming off one of the highest usage seasons in the past decade, and Dallas and Arizona suck (Arizona's line is terrible, to boot). Falling to 3? It's pretty crazy to take anybody besides Gurley at #1 overall.

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7 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Gurley falling to 3 isn't crazy at all. Any order for those 4 is reasonable.

Mine is

Zeke - will catch a lot more passes, think he's the Gurley of 2018

Gurley - maybe a little less usage, probable td regression, but still a beast

DJ - coming off injury, but not one that should recur; think the qb situation won't hurt him, and might him catch even more passes than 2016

Bell - tough to drop him here, and my only hesitation with him is the heavy usage last year and possible injury(ies) as a result

 

But anyway you order it makes sense. I'm a bit higher on Zeke, but whoever one gets of those guys should be happy.

 

The real questions start at 5: AB, AK41, or Barkley?

 

AB will be the 99% Pavlovian choice there in PPR, bank it.  i don't agree (i think Nuk winds up #1 WR),  but it's the AB brand, ya know? 

 

me? i go Nuk or Barkley at 5. hope i am not faced with that ish on draft night, not enough Jameson in this town to assist that agita.  

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4 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

AB will be the 99% Pavlovian choice there in PPR, bank it.  i don't agree (i think Nuk winds up #1 WR),  but it's the AB brand, ya know? 

 

me? i go Nuk or Barkley at 5. hope i am not faced with that ish on draft night, not enough Jameson in this town to assist that agita.  

Yea, in my standard league I'm really dreading drawing the 5th pick. So far I've gotten 11, 9, 11, and 12... But we just switched platforms, so who knows what the random order will get me this time

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For me, Gurley is the clear-cut #1 because you really cannot make a negative argument against the guy besides the cliche "He is due for a regression because the offense overachieved" or the "RBs who finish #1 never repeat the next year".  

 

Positives:

 

1) Centerpiece of an offense where they specifically scheme to his strengths.  McVay is an offensive play-calling genius and he unlocked Gurley's capabilities last year.

2) Goff's 2nd year under McVay and this offense.  Unless he completely falls flat on his face, the offense should continue to roll.  They have the weapons that do not allow defenses to stack the box (Cooks/Woods/Kupp)

3) Potential elite defense equals positive game script for Gurley

4) In his prime with high TD potential and home-run ability

 

Then you can argue the following for the other candidates:

 

Bell - Tremendous track record and a true workhorse that tops the NFL in touches.  From a volume plus talent standpoint, his situation rivals no one but again, another preseason holdout and no doubt the most wear and tear out of the top 4 RBs.  He is "safe" but I would rather go with Gurley where there is nothing but positives out of that camp.  Elite pass catching ability could make you go either way in a PPR league.

 

Zeke - He should also be the centerpiece of that offense with a solid O-line.  Only issue is supporting WR cast but in terms of volume and play-making, he should put in a great year.

 

DJ - Everyone knows his upside and has "fresh legs".  A lot of question marks concerning QB play, new coach and lack of offensive support outside of Fitzgerald.  Dual-threat RB who should be immune to game script.

 

I honestly don't think you can go wrong with any of these guys and you would be lucky to build your team around them but this would be my argument for Gurley as #1 overall.

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6 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

Are you sure because If we examine the 2017 season outlook on Gurley the Rams had the toughest schedule last season and he did pretty fine. Examining SOS this early is an absolute joke because no one knows how good or bad teams will be. Last season all I heard was how bad his playoff schedule was, yet somehow he had 130 and 2 TDs,180 and 4 TDs and 270 and 2 TDs.

You should never move a player up or down in your rankings because of SOS, it’s a joke of a stat. Now if you want to decide which RB you start in week 7 based off of what those defenses have done in the first 6 weeks that’s an ok thing to do, but not drafting someone because they play an “elite” defense in week 7 that has yet to play a single snap is not a good thing to do. (I have no clue who they play in week 7, I just choose a random number)

 

Some of you on here are just ready to spout off with whatever opinion you have. Chill. Never said I'd move Gurley or anyone down. Simply replying to Hawks about him seeing the Rams offense having a slight drop from last year's success. Obviously in my post, I have Gurley at 1A/B along with Elliott. So if I'm picking first I'm looking at those two guys. SOS can be a joke of a stat, but if you have two players who you have listed as equal, looking at SOS/defensive matchups could be a tiebreaker for some. But never to build rankings off of, which is something I never said. Thanks for the lecture though. 

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