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Ian Happ 2018 Outlook


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9 hours ago, midlip said:

Ok but your example is probably way further from the “norm” than mine when used to gauge droppability 

 

obviously 32 team, 150 roster size leagues he’s a hold but I digress....

 

32/150 is silly.  But I guess so is 8 team.

 

Hopefully the type people who would come to a message forum and discuss players are more serious and tend towards deeper, more challenging leagues.

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23 minutes ago, mi26 said:

is he getting going now?

 

Last 3 games: 5-for-9, only 1 strikeout. Raised his average from .204 to .259. 

 

.259 average and .755 OPS on the young season. Not too shabby.  

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12 hours ago, kenag122002 said:

 

32/150 is silly.  But I guess so is 8 team.

 

Hopefully the type people who would come to a message forum and discuss players are more serious and tend towards deeper, more challenging leagues.

 

I play in several leagues with a wide range of competitiveness.  One of them is a less competitive 8 team league and about half the league is dead money. It's an old work league and a fun way to keep in touch with past colleagues. Should I not be posting on message boards ? I'm guessing a lot of people who post here play in multiple leagues with varying levels of competitiveness.

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22 hours ago, midlip said:

Also cut last week and he cleared waivers... not sure what basis you can use currently for a part-time player that isn't producing 

I was wrong, someone did make a waiver claim for him in my league

 

so for his impending blistering hot streak:

 

giphy.gif

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11 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

 

I play in several leagues with a wide range of competitiveness.  One of them is a less competitive 8 team league and about half the league is dead money. It's an old work league and a fun way to keep in touch with past colleagues. Should I not be posting on message boards ? I'm guessing a lot of people who post here play in multiple leagues with varying levels of competitiveness.

 

Not at all what I'm saying, obviously post whenever/however you'd like!

 

But if you are in an 8 team league you don't need advice.  There's no challenge there.  Flip a coin, which superstar filled team will be better this year.  It's not the same game as competitive fantasy baseball in my personal opinion.

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The Cubs have been satisfied with the work Albert Almora has done as their primary center fielder and leadoff man and recently activated Ben Zobrist (back) from the 10-day disabled list, seemingly closing off Happ's path to regular at-bats. Happ's status as a switch hitter who can play multiple spots should afford him at least a handful of starts per week, but he'll need to cut down his 44.3 percent strikeout rate before reclaiming a full-time role.

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15 hours ago, High&Inside said:

When Old Man Zobrist is blocking you from playing time that tells you how the organization views him.

 

I think the org likes him but he was literally striking out half the time. it was not because he was being patient either, chase rate up to 34% and no contact with pitches in the zone at 67% (about worst in the majors).

 

he started to turn it around a little last week but he will need to show something before they bench zobrist or baez who have been raking over him.

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15 minutes ago, weakkneeswilly said:

 

The Cubs have been satisfied with the work Albert Almora has done as their primary center fielder and leadoff man and recently activated Ben Zobrist (back) from the 10-day disabled list, seemingly closing off Happ's path to regular at-bats. Happ's status as a switch hitter who can play multiple spots should afford him at least a handful of starts per week, but he'll need to cut down his 44.3 percent strikeout rate before reclaiming a full-time role.

 

Maybe, but Almora still sucks against right handed pitching. AS good as he is on defense, unless he remedies that, someone will likely start stealing most of those CF at-bats against RHP. May or may not be Happ (Heyward could play there too), but it's a path

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/14/2018 at 9:55 AM, peelpub94 said:

Almora often gets in the line up because of his excellent defense at CF. Last year, the Cubs OF was completely overloaded. Happ is nowhere near the defender in CF that Almora is. 

 

Without turning this into an Almora post, he did happen to have a really nice 2nd half. Batting .343, 5HR, 31RBI.

 

Happ's deficiencies will most likely end up hurting you in .AVG and .OBP. The 25HR potential isn't enough to roster him for me.

 

Good call.  It really is amazing how overranked Happ was because of his strong spring training.  Spring training stats mean absolutely nothing, just like at Scott Kingery.

 

Happ had ABSOLUTELY NO BUSINESS going inside the top 200 in any league.  He strikes out a higher percentage than any player in MLB history, has little speed, and decent power, but not great.  At best, Happ should have been a last-round flier and honestly probably not even drafted unless it was a super deep league.

 

But because Happ had a big spring training (which means absolutely nothing) and because he plays for a big market team with a lot of publicity like the Cubs, he was going inside the top 150 in most leagues.  Absolutely absurd.

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9 minutes ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Good call.  It really is amazing how overranked Happ was because of his strong spring training.  Spring training stats mean absolutely nothing, just like at Scott Kingery.

 

Happ had ABSOLUTELY NO BUSINESS going inside the top 200 in any league.  He strikes out a higher percentage than any player in MLB history, has little speed, and decent power, but not great.  At best, Happ should have been a last-round flier and honestly probably not even drafted unless it was a super deep league.

 

But because Happ had a big spring training (which means absolutely nothing) and because he plays for a big market team with a lot of publicity like the Cubs, he was going inside the top 150 in most leagues.  Absolutely absurd.

Was Happ overhyped? Sure, but this is his sophomore year. 

 

Your right Spring Training Stats mean nothing...Happy hit 24 HRs in 115 games last year....What did Kingery do last year?... The opportunity to get a multiple position eligible player (2B/OF) with 30+ HR potential in an All-Star lineup is why he was drafted so high. Not rocket science 

 

Not to mention the long term appeal in Keeper/Dynasty League formats. 

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9 minutes ago, Jrick45 said:

Was Happ overhyped? Sure, but this is his sophomore year. 

 

Your right Spring Training Stats mean nothing...Happy hit 24 HRs in 115 games last year....What did Kingery do last year?... The opportunity to get a multiple position eligible player (2B/OF) with 30+ HR potential in an All-Star lineup is why he was drafted so high. Not rocket science 

 

Not to mention the long term appeal in Keeper/Dynasty League formats. 

Apparently the overreaction goes both ways. He’s not as good as his spring numbers, and he’s not as bad as his reg season numbers. He’s a true buy low in keepers. There are plenty of owners with the same thoughts as a couple posts above. I gave up a mid-round expiring contract for him, I’m rebuilding though and taking all the gambles I can. 

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14 hours ago, Jrick45 said:

Was Happ overhyped? Sure, but this is his sophomore year. 

 

Your right Spring Training Stats mean nothing...Happy hit 24 HRs in 115 games last year....What did Kingery do last year?... The opportunity to get a multiple position eligible player (2B/OF) with 30+ HR potential in an All-Star lineup is why he was drafted so high. Not rocket science 

 

Not to mention the long term appeal in Keeper/Dynasty League formats. 

 

I'm not disputing that Happ should have been taken ahead of Kingery (who is pure garbage).  I'm just saying that in both cases the fantasy communities overreacted to their meaningless big springs and their ADPs skyrocketed.

 

If you wanted to spend a late-round flier (outside the top 200) on Happ because of his power potential, fine, I can't blame you for that.  However, most leagues he went inside the top 150, where there was zero profit potential (and a lot of downside potential).

 

Like peelpup correctly said (to his credit before the season started), Happ's 25 HR potential probably isn't worth the batting average downside.  Especially when he has very little speed and the Cubs have such a crowded group of 2B/OF where a 500 AB season seemed extremely unlikely.

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