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Jameis Winston 2018 Outlook


Rolling Thunder

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Winston's mid-season injury and the failings of the Bucs defense certainly dimmed Winston's previously rising star in 2017.  The naysayers now rule the day.  But the following observation from an NFL.com article published recently got me thinking a bit more about Winston:

 

"Statistically, Winston posted a better season in most categories. He improved on his completion percentage by three percentage points, upped his passing yards per game from 255.6 to 269.5 and posted a 92.2 passer rating, the best of his career."

 

Koetter was retained, so there is continuity going forward.  Winston, for all his faults, is another year wiser (hopefully).  Maybe DJax stays healthy for the whole year, they make changes that improve the defense, and a rookie RB out if this historically deep draft class suddenly fills a 3 down roll in style.  What then?

 

You can bet that Winston will be one of the last QBs that folks will consider drafting this season.  Recency bias will be strong.  But every year there is a maligned QB that can be had for almost free who proves to be a worthwhile addition to a roster deep enough to roster a second (or even third) QB.  Right now, I am liking Winston as one of those bounce back, end-of-draft candidates.

 

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There's some good and bad here.   Winston has yet to blossom as a first overall pick guy, and this past year he had as strong an arsenal as can be, with Brate now leaving.  He also has had little impact as a rusher, after that promising rookie year when he had 6 rush TD's.    Plus, I think he'll always be a high INT guy.  INT's and low rushing floors are a bitter tasting combo.

 

But, the good side is- if TB can't fix their defense, Winston will live in garbage time again a lot next year.   4000 yards is a fair expectation, he should've reached that if not for the injury.   I'd guess TB exercises Winston's option, but this is a sort-of contract year for him, as a truly strong season will force TB's hand to try and extend him in spring 2019.   Chris Godwin came on strong at the end of the year as well, and perhaps OJ Howard can improve enough to keep the passing game above water.     

 

It seems highly likely a new starting RB will come on board here, that'll change this narrative of course once we find out who that is.  Free agency (assuming LeVeon is not "free") is light, but i'd like to see a guy like Rex Burkhead get a shot here as a cost effective back who I think could do more with more work.  

 

I think i'd take him at that end of the QB1 tier, but i'd probably want to add a 2nd one and rotate based on matchups.    

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On 1/19/2018 at 3:18 PM, BrianM said:

There's some good and bad here.   Winston has yet to blossom as a first overall pick guy, and this past year he had as strong an arsenal as can be, with Brate now leaving.  He also has had little impact as a rusher, after that promising rookie year when he had 6 rush TD's.    Plus, I think he'll always be a high INT guy.  INT's and low rushing floors are a bitter tasting combo.

 

But, the good side is- if TB can't fix their defense, Winston will live in garbage time again a lot next year.   4000 yards is a fair expectation, he should've reached that if not for the injury.   I'd guess TB exercises Winston's option, but this is a sort-of contract year for him, as a truly strong season will force TB's hand to try and extend him in spring 2019.   Chris Godwin came on strong at the end of the year as well, and perhaps OJ Howard can improve enough to keep the passing game above water.     

 

It seems highly likely a new starting RB will come on board here, that'll change this narrative of course once we find out who that is.  Free agency (assuming LeVeon is not "free") is light, but i'd like to see a guy like Rex Burkhead get a shot here as a cost effective back who I think could do more with more work.  

 

I think i'd take him at that end of the QB1 tier, but i'd probably want to add a 2nd one and rotate based on matchups.    

I really don't think Winston has had any difference makers on offense since he was drafted besides Mike Evans. DJax in his twilight? Nah. Brate and the rest of the receivers? Nah. Doug Martin and Sims? Nah. OLine? Nah. Not even a decent OLine.

 

Winston has all the tools and talent. And he does display it. But turnovers are a real problem and I agree with you. The good thing about fantasy is that turnovers don't really hurt. And can sometimes even help by leading to more garbage time play (Bortles in 2015).

 

They need to improve the talent around him on offense. Make it more prolific. He can put up the numbers and fantasy numbers.

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10 hours ago, devaster said:

I really don't think Winston has had any difference makers on offense since he was drafted besides Mike Evans. DJax in his twilight? Nah. Brate and the rest of the receivers? Nah. Doug Martin and Sims? Nah. OLine? Nah. Not even a decent OLine.

 

Winston has all the tools and talent. And he does display it. But turnovers are a real problem and I agree with you. The good thing about fantasy is that turnovers don't really hurt. And can sometimes even help by leading to more garbage time play (Bortles in 2015).

 

They need to improve the talent around him on offense. Make it more prolific. He can put up the numbers and fantasy numbers.

 

It usually takes TEs a year or two to make an impact, so don't dismiss O.J. Howard so quickly.  Also, the Bucs had O-line injuries (e.g., Marpet, etc.), and this upcoming draft class has some depth in the OL and RB classes.  Finally, Koetter seems (to me at least) to know what he is doing offensively.  By retaining him, they gave Winston some continuity. 

 

 With health and the addition of an impactful rookie or two, the Bucs offense could easily rebound significantly in 2018.

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5 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

It usually takes TEs a year or two to make an impact, so don't dismiss O.J. Howard so quickly.  Also, the Bucs had O-line injuries (e.g., Marpet, etc.), and this upcoming draft class has some depth in the OL and RB classes.  Finally, Koetter seems (to me at least) to know what he is doing offensively.  By retaining him, they gave Winston some continuity. 

 

 With health and the addition of an impactful rookie or two, the Bucs offense could easily rebound significantly in 2018.

I'm also high on Howard, but they need talent at WR, RB, and OLine. Their OLine had injuries, but it sucked before the injuries.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

I'm also high on Howard, but they need talent at WR, RB, and OLine. Their OLine had injuries, but it sucked before the injuries.

 

Marpet was their best offensive lineman by far.  When they lost him, it really made life difficult for Winston.  Nevertheless, Winston still performed ok for fantasy.  So regardless of where the Buc's O-line was to start the 2017 season, health alone boosts Winston IMO.  But as I said, the draft is chock full of OL prospects who can immediately upgrade the Bucs upfront.  If they select right, they should improve.

 

The whole context of this discussion is finding value in Winston and other Buc players assuming recency bias downgrades their value come fantasy draft time.  If someone believes that Winston and company will be worse in 2018 than they were in 2017, please share the facts (real data points please) that lead to that conclusion.

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5 hours ago, dogfightgiggle said:

I have a hard time seeing Winston play well enough to make him better than just "startable".  Maybe that's good enough at QB?

 

Agree. For me he's a QB2 at best. Could go undrafted in some leagues. Especially with the infusion of good young QB's.

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  • 4 months later...
Quote

ESPN Tallahassee radio host Jeff Cameron reports Jameis Winston is "prepared for the NFL to levy a suspension" in its investigation of his March 2016 incident with an Uber driver.

Cameron's comments are via JoeBucsFan.com. Per Cameron, the "thought from the Winston camp" is that his suspension will be no longer than three games, and likely just one. Winston is alleged to have groped an Uber driver, but he was never charged with a crime. Regardless of what the law decides, the NFL has been taking matters into its own hands since the Ray Rice debacle. Ezekiel Elliott was never charged with a crime before his six-game ban. Clarity should come soon, but the NFL has a way of dragging these situations out.
Jun 20 - 9:17 PM

Welp.  There goes my sleeper QB pick...

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He's already going a bit later than he should, this might push him out of the top 20 QB's.     I'm sure streaming a replacement isn't too hard if its a game or two.  If he gets suspended pre-bye weeks, you'll have a ton of options, provided its a 1 QB league or anything without majorly deep rosters.   

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This bug eyed, low IQ loser is begging for a 3 game suspension so he doesn't tack on 3 straight losses out of the gate onto his resume. there's no way he can beat The Saints, Philly or Pittsbugh. He'll gladly come back week 4 and beat the hapless Bears and get the Browns 2 weeks later.

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27 minutes ago, FavreCo said:

This bug eyed, low IQ loser is begging for a 3 game suspension so he doesn't tack on 3 straight losses out of the gate onto his resume. there's no way he can beat The Saints, Philly or Pittsbugh. He'll gladly come back week 4 and beat the hapless Bears and get the Browns 2 weeks later.

Newsflash:  bears aren’t so hapless. Nor are the Browns.   Tampa starts off slow again and it’s another season of getting their faces knocked in the turf.    That NFC South is no picnic

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2 hours ago, lolcopter said:

What did he do? Beat up an Uber driver like TJ Miller or something?

 

I believe he was putting on his seatbelt and his hand slipped, going into the low-buttoned blouse of the Uber driver where it there paused, squeezed, and finally exited said shirt. A common mistake.

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He's like Roethlisberger South at this point.  Though Ben at least won some stuff.    

 

Yesterday I was "ooh, he'll slide, he has value now" but today I'm thinking no, this is the start of a bad year for him.   This was his key year to solidify himself as a franchise QB, one they can win with, so he can nail that contract before his 5th year option kicks in.   Now he's stumbling out of the blocks, and its fair to wonder if he has the ability to shut the door on this once the suspension ends and he's back under center.   If he stumbles, a couple bad games have the potential to send the entire season into the abyss.

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15 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

I believe he was putting on his seatbelt and his hand slipped, going into the low-buttoned blouse of the Uber driver where it there paused, squeezed, and finally exited said shirt. A common mistake.

My Uber drivers are always overweight unattractive men.  How do you get the app to only send a hot one?

 

I've never liked this crab leg stealing poser, but I really did think this year he was going to be good value.  I know this incident was over a year ago, but it just adds to my impression that he's an immature punk.  I may change my mind about him as the draft comes nearer.  I know people are going to say "but he'll cost you nothing!" but pretty much so will Stafford, Big Ben, Trubisky, Mahomes, etc.

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