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Adrian Peterson 2018 Outlook


SharkSwimmer

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Peterson is going to have a good year if he stays healthy. Washington has a good OLine. The scheme fits. They use a FB and I-formation quite a bit. They have good blocking TE's. Bunch of weapons on offense. Looking forward to it.

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55 minutes ago, DonnieAvery17 said:

What round to draft him now?

 

I’d say around 8-9 is when I’d start looking at what I need, and the RB options that are left available.

 

The problem is that because of his name, and the fact that he looked pretty good last night, he’s probably going to get over-drafted by someone in your league.

 

Those who are dismissing him are foolish IMO, but he’s probably not going to offer much value on draft day considering where you’d probably have to take him.

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A.Petersons value should be around the 10-12

 

Where you are drafting guys like Chris Carson, Peyton Barber, Isaiah Crowell/Powell, C.Hyde/Chubbs, Booker etc.

 

What is great about AP though is that he seems to have a clear path to at least a 2-down back. 

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He's gonna get 

4 minutes ago, Nguvocity said:

A.Petersons value should be around the 10-12

 

Where you are drafting guys like Chris Carson, Peyton Barber, Isaiah Crowell/Powell, C.Hyde/Chubbs, Booker etc.

 

What is great about AP though is that he seems to have a clear path to at least a 2-down back. 

All those guys will be picked way before that, 5-8 round I feel in 12 team leagues. Rbs drop off a cliff. Especially booker, carson, and barber. Rb get really bad really fast.

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5 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

He's gonna get 

All those guys will be picked way before that, 5-8 round I feel in 12 team leagues. Rbs drop off a cliff. Especially booker, carson, and barber. Rb get really bad really fast.

 

Those guys are definitely not going between the 5-8 unless you are in a 8-man league playing standard.

 

but yes, honestly after the 5, RBs drop off like crazy. 

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1 hour ago, Nguvocity said:

Those guys are definitely not going between the 5-8 unless you are in a 8-man league playing standard.

 

You're very confused.  People go in LATER rounds, in smaller drafts.  Not the other way around.

 

Hyde is going in the 5th, Carson 6th, Crow/Barber 8th in PPR 12 teamers.

 

I have no problem with AP in the 7/8 range, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 6th round reaches on name value.

Standard leagues he's a bit more valuable.  Actively working on my final rankings adjustment of the preseason, and I'm thinking I'll jump him up to roughly... 25th among RBs.  22-28 range at a glance.  Basically the choice would be upside PPR back (James White, Duke, etc) vs 2 down pounder with goal line work.

 

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completely agree - AP's time is done. he had a few splashy plays when he finally got to play last year, but that was about it. plus - the only people who benefitted were the people who started him AND dropped him after...i don't think that was typical so i think his ability as a starter is going to be limited.

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1 hour ago, Nguvocity said:

 

Those guys are definitely not going between the 5-8 unless you are in a 8-man league playing standard.

 

but yes, honestly after the 5, RBs drop off like crazy. 

 

Depends on your league mates. I've played in highly competive leagues where guys like Barber get jumped up quite a bit, and in deeper leagues RBs are going to go off much faster than most people anticipate.

 

Don't sleep on getting RBs unless you're planning on going zero RB this year is great advice for all. APs value could get pushed up a lot higher than a lot of people think. Barring injury he's looking at over 200-250 carries from what I am currently expecting. 

 

 

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If you want him, you'll probably have to reach in round 6 or 7, because someone else in your league will.  He's not making it to the late rounds.  Someone will roll the dice on a possible featured and GL back while you're picking from the dime a dozen WR3s at that spot.  

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3 hours ago, Nguvocity said:

A.Petersons value should be around the 10-12

 

Where you are drafting guys like Chris Carson, Peyton Barber, Isaiah Crowell/Powell, C.Hyde/Chubbs, Booker etc.

 

What is great about AP though is that he seems to have a clear path to at least a 2-down back. 

 

You might have been able to get Barber or Carson close to that late a few weeks ago due to people eyeing their rookie backfield competition, but there is NO WAY they fall that far now that it’s clear they are the starters.  They are clearly ahead of AP, but in saavy leagues, they likely won’t fall past 6-7 at the latest.

 

I’d rather have AP over all those other guys you mentioned.  Clearer path to touches, better O-Line and offense.

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2 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

You're very confused.  People go in LATER rounds, in smaller drafts.  Not the other way around.

 

Hyde is going in the 5th, Carson 6th, Crow/Barber 8th in PPR 12 teamers.

 

I have no problem with AP in the 7/8 range, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 6th round reaches on name value.

Standard leagues he's a bit more valuable.  Actively working on my final rankings adjustment of the preseason, and I'm thinking I'll jump him up to roughly... 25th among RBs.  22-28 range at a glance.  Basically the choice would be upside PPR back (James White, Duke, etc) vs 2 down pounder with goal line work.

 

YOu are way off with Hyde at least.

 

hyde is 7/8 in 12 teamers

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21 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

YOu are way off with Hyde at least.

 

hyde is 7/8 in 12 teamers

 

If you want to base your draft strategy off of ESPN/Yahoo's overall rankings, which are updated ~monthly, be my guest.

In any real draft, with people who don't ignorantly draft names off the lobby list, Hyde will never make it to 8/9.

 

You wait until the 8/9th rounds to draft Hyde, and I can confidently tell you, you AREN'T going to get him.

 

 

carlos-hyde-38e1b085-96e2-4fe5-9b9f-95e1

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42 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

If you want to base your draft strategy off of ESPN/Yahoo's overall rankings, which are updated ~monthly, be my guest.

In any real draft, with people who don't ignorantly draft names off the lobby list, Hyde will never make it to 8/9.

 

You wait until the 8/9th rounds to draft Hyde, and I can confidently tell you, you AREN'T going to get him.

 

 

carlos-hyde-38e1b085-96e2-4fe5-9b9f-95e1

Except I've been basing those rounds off what I've seen in REAL drafts. Idgaf about mock ratings 

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21 minutes ago, dropkick23 said:

So he’s gonna be  lead back over Thompson? 

Yes, Thompson was never going to be the lead back, that's not his role.  Thompson is a pass catching specialist, his role is secure.  Adrian will be grinding it out on 1st and 2nd down and also short yardage plays.  

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Not crazy to think he will start going around ADP 70 - 80. 

 

RB gets tremendously thin after ADP 50 or so, and to think that Washington might use him as a 18-20 carry work horse certainly fits the bill of "high upside" usage that owners will be looking for. I think drafting him any higher than ADP 60 is a huge risk, but at ADP 70 or 80...you could do worse.

 

If he were to somehow stay healthy and start 13-14 games, he could see AP putting up a 1,000 yards, 10 TD.

 

He looked good though in that pre-season game...it's just pre-season...but damn...he looked good.

 

Burst and power.

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As a huge Redskins fan, I was a naysayer, but he looked great in the preseason game he played, much better than anybody else we have. I got him in the 11th round after taking Chris Thompson in the 10th in a 12 team league. It's a half point PPR league with 3 WRs starting so the backs go later, in a standard league I might take AP higher than Thompson. I think he will start the season strong and unless Perine wakes up, I don't see any challenge to AP's job as a 2 down back besides injury.

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