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Adrian Peterson 2018 Outlook


SharkSwimmer

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34 minutes ago, zorndogs said:

As a huge Redskins fan, I was a naysayer, but he looked great in the preseason game he played, much better than anybody else we have. I got him in the 11th round after taking Chris Thompson in the 10th in a 12 team league. It's a half point PPR league with 3 WRs starting so the backs go later, in a standard league I might take AP higher than Thompson. I think he will start the season strong and unless Perine wakes up, I don't see any challenge to AP's job as a 2 down back besides injury.

You say you’re a Redskins fan but you didn’t even take him 15th overall ; )

 

I don’t see anything wrong taking a flyer on him in the 11th round.  I don’t think AP has more than a few games playing at a high level before getting injured.  But, drafting him in the 11th round... why not?  Hopefully he’s AP’s healthy until Thompson gets healthy.  It’s a nice pairing.

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I'm not seeing big things out of him this season. We don't have much to go off of, but this carry at the 22 second mark show a pretty poor cut - slow, with lots of extra footwork in there to get it done. That's not going to cut it  once the regular season starts. I have no doubts as to the vision and the power, so i still think there is some value there, but I'd greatly temper my expectations for him - meaning that I probably won't own him anywhere.

 

 

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Took him with my last pick in the last round (14) in my 14 team league. We drafted the night before that Broncos preseason game so his hype was nonexistent then. I’m glad to have stole him there for nothing but I do have very tempered expectations. If he turns into a decent weekly matchup flex at minimum I’ll be really pumped. If he can do more than that even better but I would not reach for him to those drafting soon. RW is writing blurbs saying he’s in the tier with Jamaal Williams and Carson and I think that’s a bit aggressive.

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3 minutes ago, Panthor said:

opportunity - check

no real competition - check

good offense - check

good O-liine - check

 

so why are people so down on him?

 

Age 33, approaching 3000 touches, visibly lost a step already.  Hasn't been good since 2015.  

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6 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

not projecting him to be a RB1 but there is significant undervaluing going on here

 

You asked why people are down on him.  They are down on him because he's not very good, and is more likely to lose the job than to produce.  Still, he has to be drafted.  I wouldn't say it's significant undervaluing.  He's a lottery ticket being drafted with your backups, which seems appropriate.  

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8 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

You asked why people are down on him.  They are down on him because he's not very good, and is more likely to lose the job than to produce.  Still, he has to be drafted.  I wouldn't say it's significant undervaluing.  He's a lottery ticket being drafted with your backups, which seems appropriate.  

 

Lose the job to Perine or Kelley?

 

Image result for nicolas cage laughing gif

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39 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

 

Or someone not on the roster yet.  Dozens of RB's will become available this week.

What a negative nancy. Health is the biggest concern. His on-field play hasn't slipped nearly as much as some people want us to believe. He went through coaching staff changes in Minnesota that refused to adjust their scheme to suit his strengths. Ingram and Kamara and poor scheme fit in NO. Looked good in Arizona in the correct scheme until injury hit.

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14 minutes ago, devaster said:

What a negative nancy. Health is the biggest concern. His on-field play hasn't slipped nearly as much as some people want us to believe. He went through coaching staff changes in Minnesota that refused to adjust their scheme to suit his strengths. Ingram and Kamara and poor scheme fit in NO. Looked good in Arizona in the correct scheme until injury hit.

 

There was no coaching change for him in Minnesota.  He played the first 2 weeks under the same Mike Zimmer / Norv Turner regime as the previous monster year, averaging only 1.6 YPC before his knee injury.  He sucked, most likely, because they burned him out the year before, not because of scheme.  Then he goes to NO, where the "poor fit" averaged 3 YPC in the same offense that Kamara and Ingram (two very different backs) ran wild.  Nothing to do with fit.  Over to Arizona, where he did have two big games.  Unfortunately, 3 of his 6 games with AZ saw him under 2 YPC.  

 

Of course health is a concern.  He's a 33 year old with high mileage who has missed most of the last 2 seasons.  But his on-field play has slipped more than you want to believe.  

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Just now, StevenSC400 said:

If you don't take a flyer on AP if he's available in the last few rounds your a fool. If someone wants to grab him early and you don't get him then let them. But for the last few rounds you got nothing to lose.

 

i would take it a step further to say he should be on the radar once the majority of starting RBs are off the board, but at that point you're dealing with a bunch of question marks for all of them.  and it is widely accepted the most important thing for a fantasy RB is opportunity  and at that point of the draft when the majority of starting RBs are gone AP is going to be one of the few available that has virtually guaranteed touches in a backfield that has him as basically last man standing at this point.  in other words don't be ridged during your draft and refuse to draft AP until he fits into the "last round of the draft" box. 

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1 hour ago, Novaray said:

Much easier shedding off Kelley/Perine than Ingram/Kamara

 

Exactly. He wont be available towards the latter part of any draft that I'm taking part in. I'm not sure around which round i am taking him yet, but I can see myself reaching a bit sooner than people think if I go WR heavy early on.

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2 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

i would take it a step further to say he should be on the radar once the majority of starting RBs are off the board, but at that point you're dealing with a bunch of question marks for all of them.  and it is widely accepted the most important thing for a fantasy RB is opportunity  and at that point of the draft when the majority of starting RBs are gone AP is going to be one of the few available that has virtually guaranteed touches in a backfield that has him as basically last man standing at this point.  in other words don't be ridged during your draft and refuse to draft AP until he fits into the "last round of the draft" box. 

I agree. I didn't say the last round I said the last few rounds. Also dependent on how your draft is going especially if you need RB help. But I wouldn't reach for him either though. To me I would start considering him round 10 and up. I would really have to be struggling at RB to take him earlier I think.

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49 minutes ago, Chardo said:

 

There was no coaching change for him in Minnesota.  He played the first 2 weeks under the same Mike Zimmer / Norv Turner regime as the previous monster year, averaging only 1.6 YPC before his knee injury.  He sucked, most likely, because they burned him out the year before, not because of scheme.  Then he goes to NO, where the "poor fit" averaged 3 YPC in the same offense that Kamara and Ingram (two very different backs) ran wild.  Nothing to do with fit.  Over to Arizona, where he did have two big games.  Unfortunately, 3 of his 6 games with AZ saw him under 2 YPC.  

 

Of course health is a concern.  He's a 33 year old with high mileage who has missed most of the last 2 seasons.  But his on-field play has slipped more than you want to believe.  

There were big scheme changes they made to fit Bridgewater joining the team. They attempted to run the offense out of the shotgun for a while before reverting to hybrid scheme to fit AD better. Just because Ingram and Kamara do well in a scheme doesn't mean AD should also do well. AD is best suited in a traditional two back scheme using a FB as a lead blocker.

 

There was probably fatigue from his big workload before. But AD is one of the best conditioned athletes in the NFL. Even at his current age. I think he can still be effective.

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Just now, StevenSC400 said:

I agree. I didn't say the last round I said the last few rounds. Also dependent on how your draft is going especially if you need RB help. But I wouldn't reach for him either though. To me I would start considering him round 10 and up. I would really have to be struggling at RB to take him earlier I think.

 

if i owned Ingram as my second, i wouldn't mind grabbing a few of the guys like Michael/Penny/Jones in the next few for the later year upside and skip the Barber's/Blounts/Gore's/Williams/Coleman/etc and then grab AP toward the end of the single digits to cover for Ingram for the early season.

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

There were big scheme changes they made to fit Bridgewater joining the team. They attempted to run the offense out of the shotgun for a while before reverting to hybrid scheme to fit AD better. Just because Ingram and Kamara do well in a scheme doesn't mean AD should also do well. AD is best suited in a traditional two back scheme using a FB as a lead blocker.

 

There was probably fatigue from his big workload before. But AD is one of the best conditioned athletes in the NFL. Even at his current age. I think he can still be effective.

 

if Gore can maintain an RB2 workload late in age because of uncontested touches, i don't see why AP couldn't  do the same.

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