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Kenyan Drake 2018 Outlook


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41 minutes ago, FooserX said:

 

 

Do you still think Gase keeps Drake down after last season?

 

I feel like all of these questions will be answered in the preseason games, but for right now...I'm super high on putting Drake into the Flex spot over a WR2 position. Watching him last season was pretty electric - a threat to take it to the endzone anytime he touched the ball with clear breakaway speed. 

 

I like stats, but I'm also big on the eye test...and Drake was like Eric Dickerson in Nintendo's Tecmo Bowl compared to everyone else on the field.

 

 

 

I think so.

 

The moves they made this offseason tell me they don't want Drake in a featured back role. Listing Gore as the co-starter just adds to that and while Gore is old he's still a semi effective runner who I could see stealing goaline work. 

 

Keep in mind they also drafted Ballage who's a good pass catcher. I could see Ballage being more and more involved as the season progresses, even stealing goaline work (being the bigger back). 

 

Love Drakes talent but hate the situation he's in. His adp is too high for me and I'd much rather have other RBs like Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman (too name a few) who are going after him. 

 

 

 

 

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On ‎8‎/‎5‎/‎2018 at 7:10 AM, seanismorris said:

There’s still a lot movement in RB ADP rankings:

Guice is rising (usually available in the 4th, but I’ve seen him go in the 2nd)

Freeman is rising (leaving value territory)

R. Jones is rising (leaving value territory)

Millar is rising (overvalued in the 4th - I don’t get his ADP)

Sony is falling (still not a value)

Drake is falling (may end up in 5th or 6th round, reaching value)

Penny is falling (difficult to determine, looking more like a RBBC)

Collins is falling (similar to Drake)

 

I haven’t been interested in Drake or Collins, but at CBS I’ve seen them fall 7th round... that’s just crazy value.  Dixon and Gore aren’t that big a threat to justify the fall.

 

There looks like enormous discrepancies at RB depending on where your league is hosted.  It’s not just RBs either, Juju is overvalued in consensus ADP but undervalued at CBS.  To win your league you’ll need to identify the anomalies in your league.  I normally look at the top 5 players at a position and pick my favorite.  This year I’ll be digging through the top 10+ to find the abandoned gems (especially in the middle rounds).

 

I think Gore can be enough of a threat. Why even bring him in or why would he sign if not for a chance at some touches? I expect Drake to have more in the split, but it could be something as bad as a 60/40 split with Drake getting the 60%. Maybe Gore will be trusted more at the GL. Interested to see if this shakes out at all in the preseason.

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I wouldn’t read too much into gore being listed as co-starter. Gase is a “you gotta earn it” type of coach. Gesicki was listed as the fifth tight end on the depth chart. Everybody knows that is BS. Yea, Drake should’ve earned that right by his performance last year, but Gase is an idiot.  I still believe that Gase understands that Drake is the most talented RB in this backfield 

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11 minutes ago, FinsUp24 said:

I wouldn’t read too much into gore being listed as co-starter. Gase is a “you gotta earn it” type of coach. Gesicki was listed as the fifth tight end on the depth chart. Everybody knows that is BS. Yea, Drake should’ve earned that right by his performance last year, but Gase is an idiot.  I still believe that Gase understands that Drake is the most talented RB in this backfield 

These two statements contradict one another. And Gore has already "earned it" if that is the case with Gase.

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48 minutes ago, devaster said:

I think Gore can be enough of a threat. Why even bring him in or why would he sign if not for a chance at some touches? I expect Drake to have more in the split, but it could be something as bad as a 60/40 split with Drake getting the 60%. Maybe Gore will be trusted more at the GL. Interested to see if this shakes out at all in the preseason.

Gore’s going to get carries, but I don’t consider him a threat especially in the passing game.  Gore is playing for a spot in the HoF and setting records, he can do that as a secondary role.

 

Fans, he said, are “happy that I’m home. Coming from Coral Gables and going to the University of Miami, it’s been good. Now I’ve got to make sure that I’m ready for the season and do some good things for the team.”

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Id hope Gase rolls with the hot hand once drake rips off chunks. This backfield seems to produce with Ajayi and drake. I don't see gore much of a threat but more of a saftey valve. Look at the past few years for gore. hes been pretty reliable but declining YPC. I think hes a great player but just like AP you gotta hit a wall

 

When drake has more than 10 carries a game hes averaged 4.88 yards per carry (5 games, small sample size)

 

In those 5 games where he had 10+ carries, hes also averaged 5.6 targets a game. 

 

I think the gore/ballage smoke is great to drive down his ADP. grabbing him in the 5th would be great (unfortunately i grab watson there)

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4 hours ago, FooserX said:

 

 

Do you still think Gase keeps Drake down after last season?

 

I feel like all of these questions will be answered in the preseason games, but for right now...I'm super high on putting Drake into the Flex spot over a WR2 position. Watching him last season was pretty electric - a threat to take it to the endzone anytime he touched the ball with clear breakaway speed. 

 

I like stats, but I'm also big on the eye test...and Drake was like Eric Dickerson in Nintendo's Tecmo Bowl compared to everyone else on the field.

 

 

Interesting you went Dickerson from that game...

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Drake is a stud no doubt about it. I love his game. But i can easily see myself getting extremely annoyed for one main reason. Red zone/goal line touches. I can just see drake ripping off great runs, getting Miami close to the goal line... and when it’s time to cash in those touchdown fantasy points, here comes Gore to punch it in and take all the glory. 

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1 hour ago, ShowStopper said:

Drake is a stud no doubt about it. I love his game. But i can easily see myself getting extremely annoyed for one main reason. Red zone/goal line touches. I can just see drake ripping off great runs, getting Miami close to the goal line... and when it’s time to cash in those touchdown fantasy points, here comes Gore to punch it in and take all the glory. 

 

Gore wasn't exactly punching it in with ease the last 2 years. 

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The relationship to watch here is gore and ballage.... ballage looked up to gore and now gore has became the big brother role for him.... gore was a ppr beast I remember several games where gore got like 40 yards rushing and saved my A with receptions.... ballage although bigger is in the same mold.... anxious to see this relationship develop and see what gore passes down and to who...and what they do with it.... I don't expect him to have a good year but I expect him to be that leader to drake and kalen

 

 

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Hot take: Frank being back in Miami assumes the role of player/coach at the tail end of a long career and helps Kenyan be a better running back and finishes top 8.

 

Reality: Frank is back in Miami and Gase can be a prick so he vultures 6-8 TDs this season. Besides goal-line situations the veteran carries no other value therefore smoldering any fantasy possibility from the Miami backfield. 

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I just feel like Drake can still be a functional RB2/3 in fantasy even with Gore.

If Drake is the man catching majority of the passes...which I would assume to be the case, then I compare it to Jerick Mckinnon last season. 178 PPR points on 150 carries and 51 receptions, despite being vultured by Latavius Murray at the goalline and barely playing the first 4 weeks.

That made him 17th in total points last season, and 13.79 FP/G from week 5 on was high end RB2 production.

Obviously there was a lot of injuries at RB last year and there was a big talent influx from the draft, but I *know* Drake is good enough to match that production, and in a year from now for Keeper purposes when Gore is gone and he assumes a greater majority of the touches (unless Gase is still being an as*hole), the arrow should be pointing way up. Gase said he brought Gore in to make Drake a better RB, if he's a man of his word (hah), the fantasy community is just going to have to have patience with this and trust what Drake put on film last year, what he's doing in camp right now (again really good), and try not to sell low.

I've had this comparison in my head for awhile, this reminds me a lot of when the Chiefs back in the day inexplicably made Jamaal Charles split carries evenly with Thomas Jones for no reason. Not saying Drake is Charles...well, for sake of argument here I'll say he's a poor man's Charles, but Charles still ran for 1400+ on 230 carries that year, while Jones plodded away 245 carries. I don't even know where I was going with that, just a thought.

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46 minutes ago, Jason497 said:

I just feel like Drake can still be a functional RB2/3 in fantasy even with Gore.

If Drake is the man catching majority of the passes...which I would assume to be the case, then I compare it to Jerick Mckinnon last season.


Sure. Except McKinnon had a functioning passing game in front of him, whereas Drake will have Tannehill trying to reach Parker/Stills - color me unimpressed. I think most defenses won't have too much trouble containing the passing game, so they can just put an extra guy in the box, contain Drake and then blitz Tannehill all day long.

Drake is interesting enough, but I think the circumstances (coach and QB) are just against him and he's bound to struggle. Struggle beyond RB18? I don't know that, but I don't see him getting to RB1 status soon.

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Well yeah, but I don't think anyone is arguing RB1 for Drake.

Drake was impressive last season by a ton of different metrics. Most yards after contact per carry last season by a significant margin (small sample size I know).

He had his impressive showing last year with Cutler as QB, so I don't think the passing game will be worse...maybe it stays even with Landry gone, idk. We've seen plenty of good RBs be functional on god awful offenses (Matt Forte for example, who played for Adam Gase in Chicago). Frank Gore, his running mate, on some real attrocious 49ers teams too.

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It’s a shame that he’s in a pretty terrible situation because he’s definitely a very good running back. I remember watching him fill in for Ajayi and he looked WAY better out there than Ajayi. But I don’t like that Gore is there and I think Gase will somehow hinder his numbers. I also don’t see big TD upside because of how bad the dolphins look. At his ADP I think I’ll let someone else have him and he could potentially be someone to trade for if he struggles out of the gate.

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12 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Gore wasn't exactly punching it in with ease the last 2 years. 

 

 

Or even before.  In his prime, Gore was just a mediocre goal line runner, converting around league average.  The last 3 years he has been well below.  Don't just assume Gore will get the GL carries.  The role is ripe for the taking.  

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I was thinking the same thing but figured there was something I missed. I remember vividly the many touchdowns Gore had vultured from him by the likes of Anthony Dixon in SF...and then Robert Turbin in Indy.

Worse news for Drake owners, I wouldn't be surprised if Kalen Ballage is the Robert Turbin/Anthony Dixon of the group and pisses off owners of both guys.

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On 8/8/2018 at 1:47 PM, Jj66 said:

 

I think so.

 

The moves they made this offseason tell me they don't want Drake in a featured back role. Listing Gore as the co-starter just adds to that and while Gore is old he's still a semi effective runner who I could see stealing goaline work. 

 

Keep in mind they also drafted Ballage who's a good pass catcher. I could see Ballage being more and more involved as the season progresses, even stealing goaline work (being the bigger back). 

 

Love Drakes talent but hate the situation he's in. His adp is too high for me and I'd much rather have other RBs like Rex Burkhead and Royce Freeman (too name a few) who are going after him. 

 

 

 

 

 

Kenyan Drake is miles better than Ballage and Gore and Jeremy Langford.

 

Drake has better hands than Ballage, he is the fastes player in the Miami offense and looked like a young shady mccoy last season.

 

Gase is a moron so i think he could potentially screw it up but is by far the best RB on that team.

 

Ballage looked terrible last night and i think he lost a fumble.

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42 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Kenyan Drake is miles better than Ballage and Gore and Jeremy Langford.

 

Drake has better hands than Ballage, he is the fastes player in the Miami offense and looked like a young shady mccoy last season.

 

Gase is a moron so i think he could potentially screw it up but is by far the best RB on that team.

 

Ballage looked terrible last night and i think he lost a fumble.

 

I've already stated that Drake is by far the best back on that team. So I'm not sure where the confusion lies? 

 

Like you metioned the coaching staff is moronic and that's where my issue with drafting Drake stems from. 

 

Based off his usuage last season with Williams (when healthy) and the moves they've made in the offseason nothing suggest Miami will put Drake in a featured role. Frank Gore seemingly has a decent share of the pie at RB and Ballage could as the season progress, especially at the goaline being the much larger back (with a near identical 40 time).

 

I'm interested to see his usage in weeks 2/3 (preseason) especially at the goaline. If he can secure goaline carries then I may reconsider drafting Drake but as it stands I just can't pull the trigger at his current ADP. 

 

 

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Gore was brought in for intangibles, locker room presence, and depth.  Being listed as a co-starter is necessary for Gore to have locker room respect.

 

In the end, the best players play the most (unless you are Joe Philbin and love seeing Daniel Thomas run for 2 yards).  Drake will get the lions share.  The eye test tells us he is their best weapon out of the backfield.

 

I have Drake as a sneaky rb2with rb1 upside if he can continue what he did at the end of last year.  You can get him past the first few rounds. 

 

People are afraid of Gore but I just dont believe it will be a timeshare.  Gore will spell him, that's about it. 

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3 hours ago, kp96 said:

Gore was brought in for intangibles, locker room presence, and depth.  Being listed as a co-starter is necessary for Gore to have locker room respect.

 

In the end, the best players play the most (unless you are Joe Philbin Adam Gase and love seeing Daniel Thomas Damian Williams run for 2 yards  ).  Drake will get the lions share.  The eye test tells us he is their best weapon out of the backfield.

 

I have Drake as a sneaky rb2with rb1 upside if he can continue what he did at the end of last year.  You can get him past the first few rounds. 

 

People are afraid of Gore but I just dont believe it will be a timeshare.  Gore will spell him, that's about it. 

Owning Drake down the stretch last year it was very frustrating to see Williams play as much as he did and his injury is what allowed Drake to finally break out. That usage in a season that was for all purposes lost is what scares me the most. I'm not really afraid of Gore but I am afraid of how Gase might use Gore. Ballage is one of my late round fliers too. He looked very much like a rookie the other day but his size and speed are intriguing and he has good hands. At his size I'd imagine he'd have the potential to be a great pass blocker so he could become a 3rd down fixture for the Phins at some point in the season and limit Drake's role some.

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11 hours ago, Jaw1 said:

I'm not really afraid of Gore but I am afraid of how Gase might use Gore.

Exactly why I will avoid the Miami backfield, and preferably the entire offense.

 

Some coaches you can't trust because they are too smart (the Hoodie). Others you just can't trust, full stop.

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On 8/8/2018 at 12:47 PM, Jj66 said:

Keep in mind they also drafted Ballage who's a good pass catcher. I could see Ballage being more and more involved as the season progresses, even stealing goaline work (being the bigger back).

 

Ballage essentially caused his own fumble in the first preseason game. If he can't hold onto that slippery rock, he won't see the light of day, especially at the goal line (assuming the Dolphins can reach the red zone).

 

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On 8/10/2018 at 8:03 AM, JSA2422 said:

Drake looked good out there - looks like Miami is running a faster offense and no huddle. I would assume Drake is the best equipped back on the  team for that sort of offense. 

Agreed

Once he starts ripping off yards in chunks this thread will get mighty quiet...  

rookie’s already fumbling too.  Drake is going to be one of those guys that makes you look smart for picking him in the 4th/5th

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