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Kareem Hunt 2018 Outlook


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Chiefs will sign RB Damien Williams, formerly of the Dolphins.

Williams, 26, spent his first four NFL seasons in Miami after going undrafted out of Oklahoma, managing 3.6 career yards per carry but showing passing-down chops with 85 receptions. In Kansas City, Williams figures to battle Charcandrick West for one roster spot behind Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware.

 

Cheap replacement so that they can cut Chark to save money?  Would bode well for Kareem -- I thought I heard they want Ware to support on early downs so that they could involve Hunt more in 3rd down and 2 minute.  Williams then just becomes depth.

 

If Chark isn't cut i'm still not touching Hunt for the price.  Was a volume dependent early down pounder Weeks 4 - 17.

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22 minutes ago, m_cox22 said:

Is Reid back to calling plays this year? He gave up duties for awhile last year and that's when Hunt came back to life. Worried about Hunt if Reid is back to his frustrating ways.

 

We have to assume he'll be calling plays.

 

I'm still watching to see if they release Chark.  I could stomach ceding early downs to Ware, and even Reid's s---y playcalling, if I knew that Hunt was getting 3rd downs and hurry up.

 

Also, as much as Smith was known for being a check down king, he would tuck and run or even throw out of bounds a lot of times before hitting Kareem on a check down.  I'll be looking to see if Mahomes is more comfortable checking down to Hunt in the preseason.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Either way I'm steering clear if his adp is 1st or early 2nd round. There are quite a few RBs that will go early in 2018 tho

Hunt will get plenty of work, but I favor Leonard Fournette.

 

As long as Fournette is healthy, I expect him to be the more valuable fantasy asset.

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On 3/22/2018 at 11:25 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

Cheap replacement so that they can cut Chark to save money?  Would bode well for Kareem -- I thought I heard they want Ware to support on early downs so that they could involve Hunt more in 3rd down and 2 minute.  Williams then just becomes depth.

 

If Chark isn't cut i'm still not touching Hunt for the price.  Was a volume dependent early down pounder Weeks 4 - 17.

 

I was one of the few who encouraged folks to keep the faith when Hunt's production disappeared mid-season.  That faith paid off big in the playoffs.

 

Having patted myself on the head now, I am fading Hunt significantly in 2018.  Talent wise, he's not Kamara or Mixon.  In PPR (which is all I play), I'd be tempted right now to take McKinnon, McCaffrey and Mixon over Hunt.  That's how skeptical I am.    

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I was one of the few who encouraged folks to keep the faith when Hunt's production disappeared mid-season.  That faith paid off big in the playoffs.

 

Because Nagy took over playcalling and force fed Hunt. 

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25 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Because Nagy took over playcalling and force fed Hunt. 

 

Hunt was fed alot from day one.  What was lacking during the drought was scoring.  I counseled faith because the odds were good that scoring (fluky factor that it is) would reappear.  The Reid haters give all the credit to Nagy, and maybe some credit is due (who knows), but if you check the game logs you will see the scoring pattern I mention as clear as day.

 

For 2018, I don't see Hunt getting the volume he got last season.    

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3 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Hunt was fed alot from day one.  What was lacking during the drought was scoring.  I counseled faith because the odds were good that scoring (fluky factor that it is) would reappear.  The Reid haters give all the credit to Nagy, and maybe some credit is due (who knows), but if you check the game logs you will see the scoring pattern I mention as clear as day.

 

For 2018, I don't see Hunt getting the volume he got last season.    

  

 

Why not? Seems like they would run more while Mahomes  acclimates to the NFL

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5 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I was one of the few who encouraged folks to keep the faith when Hunt's production disappeared mid-season.  That faith paid off big in the playoffs.

 

Having patted myself on the head now, I am fading Hunt significantly in 2018.  Talent wise, he's not Kamara or Mixon.  In PPR (which is all I play), I'd be tempted right now to take McKinnon, McCaffrey and Mixon over Hunt.  That's how skeptical I am.    

 

I don't really think this is much of a stretch honestly. 

 

I think many would agree with your assessment here. At least I can speak for myself and say I do. 

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6 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I was one of the few who encouraged folks to keep the faith when Hunt's production disappeared mid-season.  That faith paid off big in the playoffs.

 

Having patted myself on the head now, I am fading Hunt significantly in 2018.  Talent wise, he's not Kamara or Mixon.  In PPR (which is all I play), I'd be tempted right now to take McKinnon, McCaffrey and Mixon over Hunt.  That's how skeptical I am.    

 

You're a wise man.  

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He was a possible keeper for me. But I gotta say right now I think my safer snag will be Kelce. I was high on Hunt but it's just not lookin great this moment, however that all could still change as we get to camps and what not. 

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On 2/12/2018 at 2:39 PM, JoeJoe88 said:

What's wrong with 19 year olds?

They can't legally drink alcohol.  And in my state and likely Ohio, as well, it is a crime to serve them alcohol at a private residence.  The person criminally liable would be the primary homeowner or primary tenant.

 

So there's that.

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6 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

He was a possible keeper for me. But I gotta say right now I think my safer snag will be Kelce. I was high on Hunt but it's just not lookin great this moment, however that all could still change as we get to camps and what not. 

Considering Hunt is a projected first round pick— u might want to monitor that situation closely. Overall Rb4 in 2017  

 

Reid is gonna Reid— that’s always a risk with KC rbs.   A concern I have no issue with.   

 

But....their new OC is Eric Bieniemy- the former CU Buff great and rbs Coach.   If he has anywhere near the influence Reid handed over to Nagy- this could be another special season for Hunt.   

 

Nagys first week handling playcalling was the Raiders game on Dec 10th.   Hunt went from having 5 straight single digit outings to blowing up for 30+ touches and 20+ ffpts (.5ppr). It was clear as soon as Reid stepped back- Hunt re emerged.  And KC went on a tear- winning 4 straight to clinch the division. 

 

The narrative that he’s not a special talent is...at best...a questionable theory. Write him off at your own peril.  

 

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14 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Considering Hunt is a projected first round pick— u might want to monitor that situation closely. Overall Rb4 in 2017  

 

Reid is gonna Reid— that’s always a risk with KC rbs.   A concern I have no issue with.   

 

But....their new OC is Eric Bieniemy- the former CU Buff great and rbs Coach.   If he has anywhere near the influence Reid handed over to Nagy- this could be another special season for Hunt.   

 

Nagys first week handling playcalling was the Raiders game on Dec 10th.   Hunt went from having 5 straight single digit outings to blowing up for 30+ touches and 20+ ffpts (.5ppr). It was clear as soon as Reid stepped back- Hunt re emerged.  And KC went on a tear- winning 4 straight to clinch the division. 

 

The narrative that he’s not a special talent is...at best...a questionable theory. Write him off at your own peril.  

 

hunt had a crazy start with reid calling the plays 

i wouldnt be too worried about it 

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14 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Hunt was fed alot from day one.  What was lacking during the drought was scoring. 

 

Volume was good but not great, and trending down throughout the year, until Nagy took over.  No cooincidence that when Nagy added volume, scoring came back as well.  This doesn't include the bye week or Week 17 v Denver where he sat most the game:

 

RbGIH2O.jpg

 

19 touches per game avg ranks 8th most among RBs in 2017 (like I said, good but not great). 

26 touches per game ranks 3rd most (after Bell and Zeke). 

Hunt averaged only 17 per game the 6 weeks before Nagy, which would be 15th (right after Lamar Miller).  No cooincidence that Hunt was a mid-range RB2 for that middle stretch of the season.  All RBs are volume dependent to a degree, and Hunt looks to be particularly so.

 

Nagy boosted Hunt's touches per week from RB8 (YTD) or RB15 (prev 6 weeks) to RB3.  Now Nagy is gone. 

What kind of volume can we expect in 2018?  I think it largely depends if Chark is on the team.

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21 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

But....their new OC is Eric Bieniemy- the former CU Buff great and rbs Coach.   If he has anywhere near the influence Reid handed over to Nagy

 

Big 'if' and I'm gonna say no.  Reid gave it up because they'd lost 5 or 6 in a row.  Bieniemy and Nagy both came to KC in 2013 as RB and QB coach respectively.  But Nagy was also OC for all of 2016 and 2017 before he got control in those last few weeks. This is Bienimy's first year at OC so I wonder if Reid would be as willing to give it up if they suffer a similar slide as they did in 2017.  

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2 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Big 'if' and I'm gonna say no.  Reid gave it up because they'd lost 5 or 6 in a row.  Bieniemy and Nagy both came to KC in 2013 as RB and QB coach respectively.  But Nagy was also OC for all of 2016 and 2017 before he got control in those last few weeks. This is Bienimy's first year at OC so I wonder if Reid would be as willing to give it up if they suffer a similar slide as they did in 2017.  

 

It is a big if- agreed LV.   Definitely worth monitoring closely.    Bienenemys been there for 5 years though- he even played for Reid back in 99.    Handpicked for the job.     

 

The other question is whether Reid learned anything from his hubris last season.   He’s stubborn but not stupid. 

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

The other question is whether Reid learned anything from his hubris last season.   He’s stubborn but not stupid.

 

Is there a difference? lol

 

Throughout his whole career his usage of RBs has been puzzling and frustrating so I'm fully expecting walrus to continue to walrus.

 

I'm not writing Hunt off or saying he's going to have a bad year.  But I do think he almost certainly will not be a top 5 RB again and so he'll probably be overpriced.  The first month and the last month of 2017 are unlikely to repeat, and what are we left with after that?  Hopefully, if Chark leaves: a higher yardage floor from receptions; maybe a little bit more consistent scoring; still a handful of blow ups...  but still probably 18 touches per game low end RB1 when all is said and done.

 

'Talent' is kind of a loaded term -- Hunt's agility and speed doesn't leap off the page like a Mixon or Zeke.  But Hunt is still one of the best all around RBs in the league in my opinion, simply because he a sturdy runner, finds the hole and breaks tackles, and he's smooth in the passing game.  Just very well rounded and does the basics exceptionally well.

 

But even the best RBs need a good situation and Hunt's is a little precarious if we are evaluating him as a 1st round fantasy investment.

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14 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Is there a difference? lol

 

Throughout his whole career his usage of RBs has been puzzling and frustrating so I'm fully expecting walrus to continue to walrus.

 

I'm not writing Hunt off or saying he's going to have a bad year.  But I do think he almost certainly will not be a top 5 RB again and so he'll probably be overpriced.  The first month and the last month of 2017 are unlikely to repeat, and what are we left with after that?  Hopefully, if Chark leaves: a higher yardage floor from receptions; maybe a little bit more consistent scoring; still a handful of blow ups...  but still probably 18 touches per game low end RB1 when all is said and done.

 

'Talent' is kind of a loaded term -- Hunt's agility and speed doesn't leap off the page like a Mixon or Zeke.  But Hunt is still one of the best all around RBs in the league in my opinion, simply because he a sturdy runner, finds the hole and breaks tackles, and he's smooth in the passing game.  Just very well rounded and does the basics exceptionally well.

 

But even the best RBs need a good situation and Hunt's is a little precarious if we are evaluating him as a 1st round fantasy investment.

 

Again...wonderfully stated.  You should be a writer! :D

 

im seeing him going off the board as a lower end top 10.    With 9-10 first round picks being rbs.     There’s a lot to be determined here- many changes.   Can’t see him drafted as a top 5 tho 

I’d take Mixon and Fournette before him in either format as of now.  

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48 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Nagy boosted Hunt's touches per week from RB8 (YTD) or RB15 (prev 6 weeks) to RB3. 

 

I calc'd this wrong. He Averaged 26 fantasy points, not touches. On the graph we can see touches per game was even higher than 26.

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Again...wonderfully stated.  You should be a writer! :D

 

im seeing him going off the board as a lower end top 10.    With 9-10 first round picks being rbs.     There’s a lot to be determined here- many changes.   Can’t see him drafted as a top 5 tho 

I’d take Mixon and Fournette before him in either format as of now.  

I mostly agree.  Mixon is going late 3rd, so I see no reason to take him in the 1st.  Especially with Gio still there...

 

Fournette > Hunt

+1

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3 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Considering Hunt is a projected first round pick— u might want to monitor that situation closely. Overall Rb4 in 2017  

 

Reid is gonna Reid— that’s always a risk with KC rbs.   A concern I have no issue with.   

 

But....their new OC is Eric Bieniemy- the former CU Buff great and rbs Coach.   If he has anywhere near the influence Reid handed over to Nagy- this could be another special season for Hunt.   

 

Nagys first week handling playcalling was the Raiders game on Dec 10th.   Hunt went from having 5 straight single digit outings to blowing up for 30+ touches and 20+ ffpts (.5ppr). It was clear as soon as Reid stepped back- Hunt re emerged.  And KC went on a tear- winning 4 straight to clinch the division. 

 

The narrative that he’s not a special talent is...at best...a questionable theory. Write him off at your own peril.  

 

Oh believe me I'm not Bri, I'm just sayin at this moment I have slight questions myself, however Its not really him  it's sorta the whole setup and changes going in.. But I'm still going to be totally eyeballing the situation. If he definitely goes first round I'll probably cave on taking him as my keeper 

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