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Alshon Jeffery 2018 Outlook


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Well I stupidly went against my own judgment and plugged Jefferey into my lineup late last night after warning everyone in here all week that he was going to have a game exactly like this. Never going against my instincts again and trusting analysts on fantasy sites over my gut. Should have rolled with Richard in my flex as planned. 

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On 10/22/2018 at 9:56 AM, tpat30 said:

I don't see Jeffery having a solid game whatsoever. I think Wentz will be smart enough to spread it around which should mean a big day for Ertz and Agholor. 

 

If Ramsey shadows him, I don't see double digit targets to Jeffery. I see more like 6 targets 4 catches 43 yards.

 

You guys are welcome, I was a target and 8 yards off.

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18 minutes ago, Jaw1 said:

 

I think it does to some degree although probably hurts Ertz more than Jeffrey. 

 

Agreed. It hurts Jeffrey's volume a bit but Ertz's more. It also kills Agholar and Matthews.

 

One thing to note is while Jeffrey will have lower volume he should have more TD opportunities and he clearly is their best red zone weapon.

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42 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

It also kills Agholar and Matthews.

This is the big one to me.  I don't think Jeffery is impacted much, if anything teams now have to cover 3 guys so he should see more single coverage. I assume Matthews is waived and Agholar loses the most, relegated to 3 wr sets.

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49 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

Agreed. It hurts Jeffrey's volume a bit but Ertz's more. It also kills Agholar and Matthews.

 

One thing to note is while Jeffrey will have lower volume he should have more TD opportunities and he clearly is their best red zone weapon.

Wentz is averaging 37 attempts/game, with Jeffrey seeing 8-9 of those.  I don’t think that changes much, other than potentially more RZ chances.  

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Anyone thinking this hurts Jeffery or Ertz is silly. Neither will be hurt by this as Tate is coming in as the WR2. He is not Calvin Johnson. He is a speedy slot receiver who opens the middle of the field a bit for Ertz, and Jeffery will maintain his outside position. 

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24 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Anyone thinking this hurts Jeffery or Ertz is silly. Neither will be hurt by this as Tate is coming in as the WR2. He is not Calvin Johnson. He is a speedy slot receiver who opens the middle of the field a bit for Ertz, and Jeffery will maintain his outside position. 

 

Eh, I think it’s naive to say that this won’t hurt Jeffrey & Ertz’s target share. They typically work the same part of the field, and Tate is a legit weapon that they will want to use more than Agholor or Mathews.

 

Now if you want to make the argument that it will help draw coverage, improve the offense, and make Ertz & Jeffrey’s targets more productive, then I can follow that reasoning.

 

The net impact of the two likely byproducts of adding Tate remains to be seen.

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Hoping this doesn't turn into a "my guy" wins and "your guy" loses type of deal. I think they all win. Especially Wentz. I haven't been following Tate but I expect that Philly's offense is more prolific than what he had in Detroit. Otherwise I would say Tate is the loser in this. I think they all eat. Especially with no run game and a susceptable defense.

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Much of it will come from Agholar and Matthews. Agholar averaged 6.8 targets since Jeffrey returned. Matthews 2 as an Eagle.  Matthews will go to nearly 0 per game and Agholar probably 2-3. The Eagles also will sustain more drives which should generate more overall passing volume.

 

All that said, I agree, there will be a decrease in targets for Jeffrey and to a greater extent Ertz but the flip side is increased quality of targets and more scoring opportunities. To think there won't be a decrease is a mistake, though. They didn't trade a third round pick to give Tate 5 targets a game.

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1 minute ago, Ace_King said:

Much of it will come from Agholar and Matthews. Agholar averaged 6.8 targets since Jeffrey returned. Matthews 2 as an Eagle.  Matthews will go to nearly 0 per game and Agholar probably 2-3. The Eagles also will sustain more drives which should generate more overall passing volume.

 

All that said, I agree, there will be a decrease in targets for Jeffrey and to a greater extent Ertz but the flip side is increased quality of targets and more scoring opportunities. To think there won't be a decrease is a mistake, though. They didn't trade a third round pick to give Tate 5 targets a game.

Think so?  You could give Tate Jeff and Ertz 10 targets each and still be 7 targets short of Wentz average.   

 

Not to say it always breaks out evenly like that- but Jeffrey’s average of 8-9 targets still seems pretty realistic.  

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

Think so?  You could give Tate Jeff and Ertz 10 targets each and still be 7 targets short of Wentz average.   

 

Not to say it always breaks out evenly like that- but Jeffrey’s average of 8-9 targets still seems pretty realistic.  

 

Good point.

 

The RBs are averaging 6.5 targets, although that includes Sproles getting 7 in his one game. The second and third string TE are averaging 4. Then you have whatever Agholar, Wallace, Hollins, Matthews will get. Ertz jumped from 8 targets to 10 this year when the Eagles had a productive second WR in Agholar.

 

So let's assume slight declines. Jeffrey at 8, Tate at 8, Ertz at 8. That's 24. Let's say the RBs average 7 (including a spike for the games Sproles plays) and the reserve TEs 3. That's 34, leaving 3 from Wentz's current average.  That average could decline as, in theory, the team is ahead more but it could also rise as more drives are sustained. I lean toward the latter. They can't run and while the Eagles are 4-4 they had big leads in two of those losses so they have been playing from ahead in 6 of 8 games already so there is not much room for growth there so passing volume likely will increase as more drives are sustained.  

 

Bottom line: thinking it all through 8-9 does seem likely, with maybe a marginal decrease in target share offset by better quality and more pass attempts.

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20 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

Good point.

 

The RBs are averaging 6.5 targets, although that includes Sproles getting 7 in his one game. The second and third string TE are averaging 4. Then you have whatever Agholar, Wallace, Hollins, Matthews will get. Ertz jumped from 8 targets to 10 this year when the Eagles had a productive second WR in Agholar.

 

So let's assume slight declines. Jeffrey at 8, Tate at 8, Ertz at 8. That's 24. Let's say the RBs average 7 (including a spike for the games Sproles plays) and the reserve TEs 3. That's 34, leaving 3 from Wentz's current average.  That average could decline as, in theory, the team is ahead more but it could also rise as more drives are sustained. I lean toward the latter. They can't run and while the Eagles are 4-4 they had big leads in two of those losses so they have been playing from ahead in 6 of 8 games already so there is not much room for growth there so passing volume likely will increase as more drives are sustained.  

 

Bottom line: thinking it all through 8-9 does seem likely, with maybe a marginal decrease in target share offset by better quality and more pass attempts.

 

Mack Hollins is on IR, Mike wallace hasn't played all year

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Thoughts on Jeffery? Thinking about buying him and think this actually benefits him since he was producing really good even before Tate. It's not like the Eagles needed a ton of help. I think this just opens things up for everyone and really boosts Wentz.

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22 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Thoughts on Jeffery? Thinking about buying him and think this actually benefits him since he was producing really good even before Tate. It's not like the Eagles needed a ton of help. I think this just opens things up for everyone and really boosts Wentz.

 

I think it'll be similar down the stretch: great weeks of 7/90/1, and then stinkers of 2/30/0. Philly runs a smart offense, and they play the opponent. And of course they have a pretty tough schedule, so he may also simply get shut out once in a while. Great Flex play though.

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7 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

I think it'll be similar down the stretch: great weeks of 7/90/1, and then stinkers of 2/30/0. Philly runs a smart offense, and they play the opponent. And of course they have a pretty tough schedule, so he may also simply get shut out once in a while. Great Flex play though.

 

Dont you think Flex is selling him pretty big? He averages about 14-16 PPG generally, good for WR1 value. Now Tate opens the field up leaving Alshon to dominate one on one. I'm thinking WR1 is still attainable, but not sure. 

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2 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Thoughts on Jeffery? Thinking about buying him and think this actually benefits him since he was producing really good even before Tate. It's not like the Eagles needed a ton of help. I think this just opens things up for everyone and really boosts Wentz.

 

Every time I have watched him as of recent with the Eagles he has looked like vintage Alshon to me. He is better than a flex play

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