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Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook


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[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2019.]

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5 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

Wishing no ill will, but man will Edelman and White absorb more targets now.

Probably remains about the same and they involve some other players. Just what Belichick does. I think they attempt to run the ball more as well.

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This is the best question you can possibly ask yourself. In any given draft scenario or strategy discussion, this is the question you should be asking yourself, and only you can decide what's bes

225 Fantasy points in 13 games.  He was averaging 17.3 Points Per Game. 4 WRs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  AB, Hop, OBJ, and K.Allen. 8 RBs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Kamar

Last season there were a couple weeks where Gronk sat and Allen started in his place (5 & 14).  Allen totaled 2 catches for 10 yds including not even 1 target in week 5.  Of course you never know what could happen, but be careful starting Allen.

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While Gronk is "expected" to play next week, I'm sure we'll all be holding our breath.

 

Just realizing NE plays BUF...on Monday night.

 

Of course. Which complicates things.

 

Best move for this week AND next week could be to grab Charles Clay.

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1 minute ago, kyoun1e said:

While Gronk is "expected" to play next week, I'm sure we'll all be holding our breath.

 

Just realizing NE plays BUF...on Monday night.

 

Of course. Which complicates things.

 

Best move for this week AND next week could be to grab Charles Clay.

 

Good call

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11 hours ago, MrPositive said:

Wishing no ill will, but man will Edelman and White absorb more targets now.

Wasn't like gronk was absorbing much when he was active. He was actually opening up things by drawing doubles 

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1 minute ago, affliction said:

Wasn't like gronk was absorbing much when he was active. He was actually opening up things by drawing doubles 

 

Yeah so you're saying he's been not so good, so no big deal he's out? Except I disagree for 2 reasons. WW options are brutal, and we still obviously have to hold him which eats a roster spot. Gronk being out isn't good 

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I don't understand why the Patriots didn't just rule him out yesterday.  I get trying to catch your opponent off guard.  However, when is the last time a guy didn't travel with the team and then showed up a day late to play?  No one believed he was going to play once that news broke.

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5 minutes ago, owenmills said:

 

Yeah so you're saying he's been not so good, so no big deal he's out? Except I disagree for 2 reasons. WW options are brutal, and we still obviously have to hold him which eats a roster spot. Gronk being out isn't good 

 Did you even see what I was replying to? 

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Basically lose him for this week and next because unless he's taken off the injury report during the practice week next week (which will never happen the way the Pats play games with the report), you can't wait for him for Monday night.  The schedule lined up horribly for this "back tightness."

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How we feelin about the Gronkinator this week? Seems like he is on track to play. That Monday night game makes things a little tricky. Charles Clay is owned in my league so I’m likely just plugging him into my lineup and taking a goose egg if he doesn’t suit up

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On 10/22/2018 at 11:49 AM, jtbgator said:

Assuming Sony is out, what does this do to our boy Gronk? More red zone targets?

 

I think the more important factor is Gordon getting shadowed by T. White. Think it will be the Edelman/Gronk show with White out of the backfield.

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http://nflsavant.com/targets.php?ddlPosition=TE&ddlYear=2018&week=&rz=redzone&ddlTeam=

 

Pretty cool seeing Gronk at #67 tied with a bunch of scrubs.  0 RZ catches, 1 target.

 

RZ targets and rank by year

 

2017 - 23 #2

2016 - 8 #29  (in 6 starts, 8 games played)

2015 - 20 #4

2014 - 18 #7

 

Dude has less RZ receptions than David Morgan.  Less RZ targets than Nick Vannett. 

 

tenor.gif

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2 minutes ago, Sternes said:

http://nflsavant.com/targets.php?ddlPosition=TE&ddlYear=2018&week=&rz=redzone&ddlTeam=

 

Pretty cool seeing Gronk at #67 tied with a bunch of scrubs.  0 RZ catches, 1 target.

 

RZ targets and rank by year

 

2017 - 23 #2

2016 - 8 #29  (in 6 starts, 8 games played)

2015 - 20 #4

2014 - 18 #7

 

Dude has less RZ receptions than David Morgan.  Less RZ targets than Nick Vannett. 

 

tenor.gif

 

Gronk must have a TD incentive baked into his contract this season.  Someone should research this, 1 RZ target for this guy is absurd considering he's been on the field majority of the snaps/games.  Plus its not like there's an obvious vulture gobbling them up, though I guess we could point to Sony's success for some of the RZ looks not coming bc the ball gets punched in running. 

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3 minutes ago, Sternes said:

http://nflsavant.com/targets.php?ddlPosition=TE&ddlYear=2018&week=&rz=redzone&ddlTeam=

 

Pretty cool seeing Gronk at #67 tied with a bunch of scrubs.  0 RZ catches, 1 target.

 

RZ targets and rank by year

 

2017 - 23 #2

2016 - 8 #29  (in 6 starts, 8 games played)

2015 - 20 #4

2014 - 18 #7

 

Dude has less RZ receptions than David Morgan.  Less RZ targets than Nick Vannett. 

 

tenor.gif

 

Guess we’ve got some positive regression to look forward to huh?? B)

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5 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Gronk must have a TD incentive baked into his contract this season.  Someone should research this, 1 RZ target for this guy is absurd considering he's been on the field majority of the snaps/games.  Plus its not like there's an obvious vulture gobbling them up, though I guess we could point to Sony's success for some of the RZ looks not coming bc the ball gets punched in running. 

 

I crunched the numbers a couple pages back.  Here they are if you missed them:

 

Gronk up to this season he has played in 102 games, started 89 games. (Does NOT INCLUDE this year)  127 red zone targets in that span, an average of 1.25 per game for his career, and if you only use the games started (avg), it jumps to 1.43 per game. Gronk this season in 6 games, has 1 RZ target. 

 

His targets last year per game were 7.5 per game, this season 5.83. 

 

He currently is having his highest catch % of his career, but isn't getting any volume.  His yards per catch is in line with his career numbers, as are yards per game.  Just a bizarre deviation in the numbers on these targets and specifically RZ.

 

That site I found is a lot easier than doing it by hand lol.

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Like I said, my tinfoil and spider-senses are tingling and I am curious if Gronk has any TD incentive clauses in his contract for this season. 

 

I do not know what he is currently signed for or for how long, this could be the beginning of the Pats weening him out. 

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35 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Like I said, my tinfoil and spider-senses are tingling and I am curious if Gronk has any TD incentive clauses in his contract for this season. 

 

I do not know what he is currently signed for or for how long, this could be the beginning of the Pats weening him out. 

This was a big talking point at the time he signed it. Basically the incentives are for beating last years numbers.

 

"The tight end can earn a maximum of $3.3 million by achieving three of the four following incentives: $1.1 million for 70 or more catches, $1.1 million for 80% playing time, $1.1 million for nine or more touchdown catches and $1.1 million for 1,085 receiving yards. Gronkowski's base salary will remain at $8 million but could increase to $13.3 million with the incentives, per Schefter.

 

 

Last season, Gronkowski had 69 catches, 1,084 receiving yards, eight touchdowns and he played 79.3% of the time."

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/08/30/rob-gronkowski-contract-incentives-new-england-patriots

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