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Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook


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On 7/25/2018 at 10:47 PM, Boudewijn said:

He has to prove he still has some braincells left. As a human being I hope he retires and lives a great life doing whatever he pleases (or whatever girl pleases him, more likely).

As a Pat fan I hope he has a couple more TDs left though. But the above made me think:
- Brady is 40
- Edelman is 32

- Hogan is 64. No wait, that's the other one, but still.

- Gronk is 29

That dynasty is way past its prime, and they're about to fall of a huge cliff very soon. Belichick better pull some rabbits out of his hat this season.

Here's why there is not a cliff for a couple years at least- their division stinks. I don't see a cliff until the division improves greatly or Brady leaves. Until then this team is fine. 

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This is the best question you can possibly ask yourself. In any given draft scenario or strategy discussion, this is the question you should be asking yourself, and only you can decide what's bes

225 Fantasy points in 13 games.  He was averaging 17.3 Points Per Game. 4 WRs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  AB, Hop, OBJ, and K.Allen. 8 RBs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Kamar

52 minutes ago, Brye said:

Tbh man it’s is a risk but the reward is too nice to turn down at end of 2nd round beginning of 3rd, if Gronk is healthy he’s a lock for over 1k yards and 10+ tds , cook is gone, Julian Edelman is out for 1st 4 games, running game is suspect, I’m projecting Gronk for 1200 yards 11-13 tds and that’s over 200 points in standard and getting that at TE spot gives you a premium advantage over everyone else in your league.  Kelce is TE2 but he will not produce what he did last year, he has a new QB, they added  Watkins, hill still there, they got a rb1 in hunt.

 

Gronk

- HOF Brady as his QB 

- rookie RB as their starter

- Wr corps completely depleted (cooks gone, Julian on 4 game suspension leaves you with hogan and Matthews as their starters

-contract year and if he retires after this year you know he’s gonna wanna go out with a bang 

 

Kelce

-rookie QB

-hunt going to run A LOT

-Wr corps consisting of Hill and Watkins 

 

Te field gets prettt ugly after Ertz is off the board

 

 

I’m with ugly.

 

The odds are to great that Gronk gets injured. 

 

With a weak division there is no reason to give Gronk a lot of work.  If I was Belichick, I’d use him to win games in critical moments and save him for the playoffs. 

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Sportsinjury predictor says 61%/medium risk of getting hurt this year. I remember the first game last year, everyone was panicking when gronk made an AMAZING grab in the endzone, ..but he got off the ground very worrisome, did a 30% weak gronk spike (I think he hurt his chest on that amazing leaping grab).. and in general Gronk was looking very rigid while running his routes. Everyone was worried his age and injury problems caught up to him..but he still had a great season. Do they catch up to him this season?

 

Also.. looking at the below games played, is his injury history overblown? In recent years, He missed A LOT of games in 2016 but seems to have played almost all games in the other 3 years. Unless I'm forgetting something... did he play in  games and play as a decoy while injured? 

 

  Games Receiving Rushing Total Yds      
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Touch YScm RRTD Fmb AV
Career       102 89 722 474 7179 15.1 76 76 4.6 70.4   1 2 1 2 2.0 0.0 0.0 478 7181 77 3 76
2014*+ 25 NWE TE 87 15 10 131 82 1124 13.7 12 46 5.5 74.9 62.6%               82 1124 12 0 12
2015*+ 26 NWE TE 87 15 15 120 72 1176 16.3 11 76 4.8 78.4 60.0%               73 1176 11 0 12
2016 27 NWE te 87 8 6 38 25 540 21.6 3 53 3.1 67.5 65.8%               25 540 3 0 5
2017*+ 28 NWE TE 87 14 14 105 69 1084 15.7 8 53 4.9 77.4 65.7%               69 1084 8 1 13

 

I'm very conflicted, I would love to draft gronk since he can easily single handedly win you weeks where he drops 20+ points, but if he suffers a serious injury, your season is almost ruined, as you passed up on players such as AJ green and D. Freeman. And you'll need a second TE on your roster... 

Edited by dannyz6969
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1 minute ago, bgar15 said:

How early do you feel comfortable snagging Gronk in your drafts?

 

 

If you're going to take a TE early then he is your man.

 

I always avoid TE before the 5th round because of how sketchy the position is. My guess is he will maintain his mid 2nd-mid 3rd price tag. 

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I would love to take gronk in round 2 but I never like how my team turns out.. To me I think if you can get him In the 3rd it's worth it but even then I miss when tight ends no matter who it was broke in about round 4. I had tons of success when I opened the doors to gates or Tony g in round 4.

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40 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

I would love to take gronk in round 2 but I never like how my team turns out.. To me I think if you can get him In the 3rd it's worth it but even then I miss when tight ends no matter who it was broke in about round 4. I had tons of success when I opened the doors to gates or Tony g in round 4.

I think a TE that early is way too risky, especially with the enormous amount of question marks on RB's this year. I'd rather go for 2 RB 2 WR in the first four rounds this year. Otherwise you'll end up with Diggs or Mixon as your RB1/WR1 which is way too much uncertainty. 

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1 hour ago, oliminator123 said:

I think a TE that early is way too risky, especially with the enormous amount of question marks on RB's this year. I'd rather go for 2 RB 2 WR in the first four rounds this year. Otherwise you'll end up with Diggs or Mixon as your RB1/WR1 which is way too much uncertainty. 

 

That's why I wish round 4 is when people would wait, or even round 5. Tony g and gates were close to what gronk offered and people waited back then to break the tight ends open. 

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2 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

 

That's why I wish round 4 is when people would wait, or even round 5. Tony g and gates were close to what gronk offered and people waited back then to break the tight ends open. 

 

As great as they were, Gonzalez and Gates weren't even close to peak Gronk. He still has as many double-digit TD seasons as all of the current HOF TEs combined. His upside is unrivaled at that position's history except for New Orleans Jimmy Graham.

 

Edited by joshua18
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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

As great as they were, Gonzalez and Gates weren't even close to peak Gronk. He still has as many double-digit TD seasons as all of the current HOF TEs combined. His upside is unrivaled at that position's history except for New Orleans Jimmy Graham.

 

Eh, I said close. Gronk has 5 seasons over 10 tds, with 2011 being his best year and 3 of those 5 were about 1100. His tds were 

10, 17, 11, 4, 12,11, 3,8

Gates had 4 seasons over 10 tds with 2 at about 1100 yards, and then 5 seasons close to 1000 yards. 

Gates tds were 2,13, 10 ,9,9, 8,8, 10,7,7,4, 12, 5,7,3

As I said it was close and in real time play gates had amazing points for typically going in the 4th round back in those days.  Slice it however you want but Gates was an incredible value pick where he'd typically go

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225 Fantasy points in 13 games.  He was averaging 17.3 Points Per Game.

4 WRs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  AB, Hop, OBJ, and K.Allen.

8 RBs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Kamara, Hunt, Gordon, Ingram, Fournette.

 

A grand total of 12 fantasy players had a bigger weekly impact on your fantasy team than Gronkowski.

10 of those 12 players are being drafted in the first 12 picks.  K.Allen is going 14th and Ingram is suspended.

Gronk is going 23rd off the board.

 

Cooks (114/65/1082/7) is gone.

Amendola (86/61/659/2) is gone.

Edelmen is suspended for 4 games.

 

J.Matt is gone.

Malcom Mitchell is gone.

All that's left is CP84, Decker, Dorsett, and Hogan.


This year's WR corps caught a combined 46 passes from Brady last year.

 

That's all I'm going to say.

Edited by FFCollusion
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6 hours ago, confusedmrkrabs said:

Has anybody looked back and checked how accurate this site is...just curious...

Not at accurate at all. I wouldn’t take much stock in it at all expect that it may reveal players with higher injury chances than others. The actual % chance itself though, is total bs

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6 hours ago, confusedmrkrabs said:

Has anybody looked back and checked how accurate this site is...just curious...

My guess: no. It's very hard to predict discrete and uncorrelated events, so the whole site looks a bit pseudo-science to me.

 

That's not to say that certain types of running etc couldn't be inherently more injury-prone. And yes, some people just have bad knees, or possibly untreated ankle injuries that will return, but you need a player by player, injury by injury analysis to make that relevant.

 

The bottom line is: TEs are probably the second worst group of fantasy players getting injured after RBs. Expect your TE to be injured around 3 games per season and don't complain if you only get 10 games out of him.

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7 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

 

That's why I wish round 4 is when people would wait, or even round 5. Tony g and gates were close to what gronk offered and people waited back then to break the tight ends open. 

I agree Gronk probably get a little overdrafted now.  But him and Jimmy G had a two or three year run where they put up top 5 to 10 seasons at rb,wr,te.  Something that was never seen before and has raised the draft value of TE. 

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5 hours ago, youngrice said:

I agree Gronk probably get a little overdrafted now.  But him and Jimmy G had a two or three year run where they put up top 5 to 10 seasons at rb,wr,te.  Something that was never seen before and has raised the draft value of TE. 

I agree.. And I had them during those seasons and won leagues because of their performances

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12 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

That's all I'm going to say.

 

Just a little more----when you have a minute----as my numbers aren't revealing the landslide I'd predicted and your stat-sense is keen. Seemed like to me, grabbing Gronk (especially this year) in Round 2 makes a ton of sense (in Standard, 12-team); if I drafted today, I'm still leaning in Gronk's direction. Still, I played around with the numbers here (noting, points vary league to league), including Gronk compared to TEs going in rounds 5-7, and Round 2 WRs with WRs from rounds 5-7. I looked to take averages (3-year avg. for Gronk, and averages of 3 WRs and 3 TEs from last season), asking the question

 

Is it better to draft Round 2 Gronk + a WR in rounds 5-7,

 

or is it better to take a Round 2 WR + a TE in rounds 5-7?

 

Some TE Data:

2017:

Standard:

Gronk = 156.3 fantasy points (#1, only 13 games)

Kyle Rudolph = 101.2 (#7 year-end)

 

PPR:

Gronk = 227.3 points (#2, six points behind Kelce, again 13 games)

Kyle Rudolph = 158.2

 

2016:

Gronk only played 8 games netting 72 points. If we double this to 16 games / 144 points, he beats out #1 Kelce by six points. STANDARD

 

If it’s PPR, Gronk’s 97 points double to 194 points… Kelce is at 223.

 

2015:

Standard:

Gronk 186.6 points (#1)

Kelce 117.5 (#6)

 

PPR:

Gronk = 255.6 points (#1)

Kelce = 189.5 (#8) Eifert = 191.5 (#6)

 

Some WR Data:

ADP Rounds 5-7 (2017)

Crabtree = 171 points (PPR), 113.8 (Standard)

Cobb = 159 points (PPR), 93.4 points (Standard)

Sanders = 114 points (PPR), 67.5 points (Standard) (12 games, no QB)

 

Round 5-7 PPR average = 148

Round 5-7 Standard avg. = 91.5

 

ADP Round 2 (2017)

Baldwin = 225.3 (PPR), 150.3 (Standard)

Mike Evans = 203.1 (PPR), 132.1 (Standard)

TY Hilton = 175.6 (PPR), 118.6 (Standard)

 

Round 2 PPR average = 201

Round 2 Standard avg. = 134

 

Using Gronk’s 3-year average here:

Gronk + Round 5-7 WR =

Standard = 162.3 + 91.5 = 253.8

PPR = 225.6 + 148 = 373.6

 

Using 3-year average of 3 TEs drafted in rounds 5-7:

Round 2 WR + Round 5-7 TE =

Standard = 134 + 118.9 = 252.9

PPR = 201.3 + 190 = 391.3

 

 

In Standard, the point difference is negligible. In PPR, the difference is just above one point per game.

 

I suppose another tack might include this: instead of considering the ADP of WRs, use the numbers at year-end (i.e. use their ranking/points-earned and eliminate the busts like Hilton and Sanders). But this approach does not seem 100% effective either...

 

Insights?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Just a little more----when you have a minute----as my numbers aren't revealing the landslide I'd predicted and your stat-sense is keen. Seemed like to me, grabbing Gronk (especially this year) in Round 2 makes a ton of sense (in Standard, 12-team); if I drafted today, I'm still leaning in Gronk's direction. Still, I played around with the numbers here (noting, points vary league to league), including Gronk compared to TEs going in rounds 5-7, and Round 2 WRs with WRs from rounds 5-7. I looked to take averages (3-year avg. for Gronk, and averages of 3 WRs and 3 TEs from last season), asking the question

 

Is it better to draft Round 2 Gronk + a WR in rounds 5-7,

 

or is it better to take a Round 2 WR + a TE in rounds 5-7?

 

Some TE Data:

2017:

 

 

 

Standard:

 

Gronk = 156.3 fantasy points (#1, only 13 games)

 

Kyle Rudolph = 101.2 (#7 year-end)

 

 

 

PPR:

 

Gronk = 227.3 points (#2, six points behind Kelce, again 13 games)

 

Kyle Rudolph = 158.2

 

 

 

2016:

 

 

 

Gronk only played 8 games netting 72 points. If we double this to 16 games / 144 points, he beats out #1 Kelce by six points. STANDARD

 

 

 

If it’s PPR, Gronk’s 97 points double to 194 points… Kelce is at 223.

 

 

 

2015:

 

Standard:

 

Gronk 186.6 points (#1)

 

Kelce 117.5 (#6)

 

 

 

PPR:

 

Gronk = 255.6 points (#1)

 

Kelce = 189.5 (#8) Eifert = 191.5 (#6)

 

 

 

Some WR Data:

ADP Rounds 5-7 (2017)

 

Crabtree = 171 points (PPR), 113.8 (Standard)

 

Cobb = 159 points (PPR), 93.4 points (Standard)

 

Sanders = 114 points (PPR), 67.5 points (Standard) (12 games, no QB)

 

 

 

Round 5-7 PPR average = 148

 

Round 5-7 Standard avg. = 91.5

 

 

 

ADP Round 2 (2017)

 

Baldwin = 225.3 (PPR), 150.3 (Standard)

 

Mike Evans = 203.1 (PPR), 132.1 (Standard)

 

TY Hilton = 175.6 (PPR), 118.6 (Standard)

 

 

 

Round 2 PPR average = 201

 

Round 2 Standard avg. = 134

 

 

 

Using Gronk’s 3-year average here:

 

Gronk + Round 5-7 WR =

 

Standard = 162.3 + 91.5 = 253.8

 

PPR = 225.6 + 148 = 373.6

 

 

 

Using 3-year average of 3 TEs drafted in rounds 5-7:

 

Round 2 WR + Round 5-7 TE =

 

Standard = 134 + 118.9 = 252.9

 

PPR = 201.3 + 190 = 391.3

 

 

 

In Standard, the point difference is negligible. In PPR, the difference is just above one point per game.

 

I suppose another tack might include this: instead of considering the ADP of WRs, use the numbers at year-end (i.e. use their ranking/points-earned and eliminate the busts like Hilton and Sanders). But this approach does not seem 100% effective either...

 

Insights?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My only problem with this approach is the horrendous down year wide receivers had last year. Hard to argue if it's the norm but history says it'll bounce back. I'd like to see the same comparison with 2015/2016 when more than 3 or 4 receivers had 10 touchdowns. 

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On ‎7‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 6:54 PM, dannyz6969 said:

Sportsinjury predictor says 61%/medium risk of getting hurt this year. I remember the first game last year, everyone was panicking when gronk made an AMAZING grab in the endzone, ..but he got off the ground very worrisome, did a 30% weak gronk spike (I think he hurt his chest on that amazing leaping grab).. and in general Gronk was looking very rigid while running his routes. Everyone was worried his age and injury problems caught up to him..but he still had a great season. Do they catch up to him this season?

 

Also.. looking at the below games played, is his injury history overblown? In recent years, He missed A LOT of games in 2016 but seems to have played almost all games in the other 3 years. Unless I'm forgetting something... did he play in  games and play as a decoy while injured? 

 

  Games Receiving Rushing Total Yds      
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Touch YScm RRTD Fmb AV
Career       102 89 722 474 7179 15.1 76 76 4.6 70.4   1 2 1 2 2.0 0.0 0.0 478 7181 77 3 76
2014*+ 25 NWE TE 87 15 10 131 82 1124 13.7 12 46 5.5 74.9 62.6%               82 1124 12 0 12
2015*+ 26 NWE TE 87 15 15 120 72 1176 16.3 11 76 4.8 78.4 60.0%               73 1176 11 0 12
2016 27 NWE te 87 8 6 38 25 540 21.6 3 53 3.1 67.5 65.8%               25 540 3 0 5
2017*+ 28 NWE TE 87 14 14 105 69 1084 15.7 8 53 4.9 77.4 65.7%               69 1084 8 1 13

 

I'm very conflicted, I would love to draft gronk since he can easily single handedly win you weeks where he drops 20+ points, but if he suffers a serious injury, your season is almost ruined, as you passed up on players such as AJ green and D. Freeman. And you'll need a second TE on your roster... 

 

I drafted him in the first round last year.  1,000 yards and 8 TDs are average TE1 numbers.   They use him to free up other players.  His days as fantasy stud are over.

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He has a couple more years left in him and he walk away on his terms.

 

RB looks weaker than last year on NE.

WR looks weaker than last year on NE.

 

He is two solid seasons from being in the HoF. 

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6 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

I drafted him in the first round last year.  1,000 yards and 8 TDs are average TE1 numbers.   They use him to free up other players.  His days as fantasy stud are over.

Wat??

 

They use him because he is arguably the greatest TE ever. He just had a great year and nothing from his play last season indicates an immediate decline. Also, Tom Brady. 

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