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Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook


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11 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

I drafted him in the first round last year.  1,000 yards and 8 TDs are average TE1 numbers.   They use him to free up other players.  His days as fantasy stud are over.

 

 

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1) I got him in the 2nd in every format I played in, ESPN/YAHOO and got him in the 3rd in a live draft.  His ADP was around 16-20 last year I believe.

 

2) He finished 10th in receiving yards for ALL players, including WR last season.  Tied for 8th in receiving TD.  I'm pretty sure "average" TE numbers are half his.

 

3) Uhhh, he is being used to free up WHO?  That roster is a wasteland.

 

4) He led his position while not playing in two games, and he isn't a stud?

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19 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

 

giphy.gif

 

1) I got him in the 2nd in every format I played in, ESPN/YAHOO and got him in the 3rd in a live draft.  His ADP was around 16-20 last year I believe.

 

2) He finished 10th in receiving yards for ALL players, including WR last season.  Tied for 8th in receiving TD.  I'm pretty sure "average" TE numbers are half his.

 

3) Uhhh, he is being used to free up WHO?  That roster is a wasteland.

 

4) He led his position while not playing in two games, and he isn't a stud?

 

I said average "TE1" numbers! 

He did NOT provide a weekly competitive advantage last year.  I took him first round last year after Edelman was put on IR for THE ENTIRE SEASON.  

If he was going to get a significant boost in volume, last year was the year.

 

He is a top 4-5 TE now.  Nothing more.  He's not going averaging 120 yards and 2 TDs like the good old days everybody remembers.

 

Reed (Kelce's QB) and Rudolph (Reed's QB) will both see big jumps in production this year.  Eifert averages 10 TDs per 16 games and is "rested".  Gronk shares the same ambulance as the three guys I just mentioned.  Get one of those guys as a TE1 instead.  Someone else having Gronk won't hurt you.  Avoid Kelce at all costs!!!!  He has a new OC, new QB, and Sammy Watkins opposite Hunt.  New kid loves bombing passes.

 

Gronk is too expensive if you're looking for points above replacement.  I was middle snake last year and got Gronk/Shady first two rounds.  Couldn't risk Gronk not coming back in the 2nd.  Turns out I was wrong.  I had Ertz in 2016 after everyone else picked a TE.  Should have taken him again.  Sold myself on the same thing you are doing now.

 

Travis Kelce, KC TE   0/1 0 0 1   2 7 0   83 1038 8 123   0 0 0   233.5
Rob Gronkowski, NE TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   69 1084 8 106   1 0 0   227.4
Zach Ertz, Phi TEnews_breaking.png   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   74 824 8 110   0 1 0   202.4
Delanie Walker, Ten TE   0/0 0 0 0   2 -2 1   74 807 3 111   0 2 0   174.5
Evan Engram, NYG TE   0/0 0 0 0   1 14 0   64 722 6 115   0 0 0   173.6
Jimmy Graham, GB TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   57 520 10 97   1 0 0   171
Jack Doyle, Ind TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   80 690 4 107   0 2 0   169
Kyle Rudolph, Min TEnews_recent.png   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   57 532 8 81   0 0 0   158.2
Jason Witten, FA TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   63 560 5 87   0 1 0   147
Cameron Brate, TB TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   48 591 6 77   0 0 0   143.1
Benjamin Watson, NO TE  Q   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   61 522 4 79   0 0 0   137.2
Jared Cook, Oak TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   54 688 2 86   0 1 0   132.8
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19 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

I said average "TE1" numbers! 

He did NOT provide a weekly competitive advantage last year.  I took him first round last year after Edelman was put on IR for THE ENTIRE SEASON.  

If he was going to get a significant boost in volume, last year was the year.

 

He is a top 4-5 TE now.  Nothing more.  He's not going averaging 120 yards and 2 TDs like the good old days everybody remembers.

 

Reed (Kelce's QB) and Rudolph (Reed's QB) will both see big jumps in production this year.  Eifert averages 10 TDs per 16 games and is "rested".  Gronk shares the same ambulance as the three guys I just mentioned.  Get one of those guys as a TE1 instead.  Someone else having Gronk won't hurt you.  Avoid Kelce at all costs!!!!  He has a new OC, new QB, and Sammy Watkins opposite Hunt.  New kid loves bombing passes.

 

Gronk is too expensive if you're looking for points above replacement.  I was middle snake last year and got Gronk/Shady first two rounds.  Couldn't risk Gronk not coming back in the 2nd.  Turns out I was wrong.  I had Ertz in 2016 after everyone else picked a TE.  Should have taken him again.  Sold myself on the same thing you are doing now.

 

Travis Kelce, KC TE   0/1 0 0 1   2 7 0   83 1038 8 123   0 0 0   233.5
Rob Gronkowski, NE TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   69 1084 8 106   1 0 0   227.4
Zach Ertz, Phi TEnews_breaking.png   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   74 824 8 110   0 1 0   202.4
Delanie Walker, Ten TE   0/0 0 0 0   2 -2 1   74 807 3 111   0 2 0   174.5
Evan Engram, NYG TE   0/0 0 0 0   1 14 0   64 722 6 115   0 0 0   173.6
Jimmy Graham, GB TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   57 520 10 97   1 0 0   171
Jack Doyle, Ind TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   80 690 4 107   0 2 0   169
Kyle Rudolph, Min TEnews_recent.png   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   57 532 8 81   0 0 0   158.2
Jason Witten, FA TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   63 560 5 87   0 1 0   147
Cameron Brate, TB TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   48 591 6 77   0 0 0   143.1
Benjamin Watson, NO TE  Q   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   61 522 4 79   0 0 0   137.2
Jared Cook, Oak TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   54 688 2 86   0 1 0   132.8

You took Gronk in the first round?

 

That's as appalling as it gets.

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13 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

I said average "TE1" numbers! 

He did NOT provide a weekly competitive advantage last year.  I took him first round last year after Edelman was put on IR for THE ENTIRE SEASON.  

If he was going to get a significant boost in volume, last year was the year.

 

He is a top 4-5 TE now.  Nothing more.  He's not going averaging 120 yards and 2 TDs like the good old days everybody remembers.

 

Reed (Kelce's QB) and Rudolph (Reed's QB) will both see big jumps in production this year.  Eifert averages 10 TDs per 16 games and is "rested".  Gronk shares the same ambulance as the three guys I just mentioned.  Get one of those guys as a TE1 instead.  Someone else having Gronk won't hurt you.  Avoid Kelce at all costs!!!!  He has a new OC, new QB, and Sammy Watkins opposite Hunt.  New kid loves bombing passes.

 

Gronk is too expensive if you're looking for points above replacement.  I was middle snake last year and got Gronk/Shady first two rounds.  Couldn't risk Gronk not coming back in the 2nd.  Turns out I was wrong.  I had Ertz in 2016 after everyone else picked a TE.  Should have taken him again.  Sold myself on the same thing you are doing now.

 

Travis Kelce, KC TE   0/1 0 0 1   2 7 0   83 1038 8 123   0 0 0   233.5
Rob Gronkowski, NE TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   69 1084 8 106   1 0 0   227.4
Zach Ertz, Phi TEnews_breaking.png   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   74 824 8 110   0 1 0   202.4
Delanie Walker, Ten TE   0/0 0 0 0   2 -2 1   74 807 3 111   0 2 0   174.5
Evan Engram, NYG TE   0/0 0 0 0   1 14 0   64 722 6 115   0 0 0   173.6
Jimmy Graham, GB TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   57 520 10 97   1 0 0   171
Jack Doyle, Ind TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   80 690 4 107   0 2 0   169
Kyle Rudolph, Min TEnews_recent.png   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   57 532 8 81   0 0 0   158.2
Jason Witten, FA TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   63 560 5 87   0 1 0   147
Cameron Brate, TB TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   48 591 6 77   0 0 0   143.1
Benjamin Watson, NO TE  Q   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   61 522 4 79   0 0 0   137.2
Jared Cook, Oak TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   54 688 2 86   0 1 0   132.8

 

All my drafts were the last preseason weekend.  I didn't see him go in the first, but to each his own. I'm not sure why you would take him at 6 overall.

 

Gronk played in 14 games, but the last game didn't even get a catch.  He did all of his damage in 13 games.  His numbers rebounded to above normal.  His YPG, YPR, R/G were all ABOVE his career averages.  The only thing that "hurt" him was not enough TDs.  You still got a top 10 player.

 

This year I'd expect to see a nice uptick in TD with the RB situation the way it is. 

 

He is a top 4-5 TE?  Eifert?  Eifert has 20 CAREER TDs, and he scored 13 in one of his 5 seasons playing.

 

By the way, no one, NO ONE, in league history averages more yards per game at the TE position than Gronk. Gronk averages more yards per game than Randy Moss.  Gronk would be 17th on that list. Gronk will be 3rd all time after this season in TD for TD.  

 

And you are talking about a 56 point drop from him to Graham.  That is a 4 point difference a week.  If we throw out his last game against the Jets which was a walkthrough for the Pats it is a 4.3 difference per week.

 

Give me Gronk, all day, every day.

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26 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

I said average "TE1" numbers! 

He did NOT provide a weekly competitive advantage last year.  I took him first round last year after Edelman was put on IR for THE ENTIRE SEASON.  

If he was going to get a significant boost in volume, last year was the year.

 

He is a top 4-5 TE now.  Nothing more.  He's not going averaging 120 yards and 2 TDs like the good old days everybody remembers.

 

Reed (Kelce's QB) and Rudolph (Reed's QB) will both see big jumps in production this year.  Eifert averages 10 TDs per 16 games and is "rested".  Gronk shares the same ambulance as the three guys I just mentioned.  Get one of those guys as a TE1 instead.  Someone else having Gronk won't hurt you.  Avoid Kelce at all costs!!!!  He has a new OC, new QB, and Sammy Watkins opposite Hunt.  New kid loves bombing passes.

 

Gronk is too expensive if you're looking for points above replacement.  I was middle snake last year and got Gronk/Shady first two rounds.  Couldn't risk Gronk not coming back in the 2nd.  Turns out I was wrong.  I had Ertz in 2016 after everyone else picked a TE.  Should have taken him again.  Sold myself on the same thing you are doing now.

 

Travis Kelce, KC TE   0/1 0 0 1   2 7 0   83 1038 8 123   0 0 0   233.5
Rob Gronkowski, NE TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   69 1084 8 106   1 0 0   227.4
Zach Ertz, Phi TEnews_breaking.png   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   74 824 8 110   0 1 0   202.4
Delanie Walker, Ten TE   0/0 0 0 0   2 -2 1   74 807 3 111   0 2 0   174.5
Evan Engram, NYG TE   0/0 0 0 0   1 14 0   64 722 6 115   0 0 0   173.6
Jimmy Graham, GB TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   57 520 10 97   1 0 0   171
Jack Doyle, Ind TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   80 690 4 107   0 2 0   169
Kyle Rudolph, Min TEnews_recent.png   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   57 532 8 81   0 0 0   158.2
Jason Witten, FA TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   63 560 5 87   0 1 0   147
Cameron Brate, TB TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   48 591 6 77   0 0 0   143.1
Benjamin Watson, NO TE  Q   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   61 522 4 79   0 0 0   137.2
Jared Cook, Oak TE   0/0 0 0 0   0 0 0   54 688 2 86   0 1 0   132.8

This is still not even close to correct. 

 

You say Gronk is done but are touting Eifert? Really? Eifert is well rested because he has played 10 games over the last two seasons and only 24 games over the last 4 seasons.  

 

Gronk in the late second or early third is still plenty acceptable. 

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2 hours ago, Panthor said:

i think the only question is whether or not he is going to be healthy again for a full year.  there isn't much question he is the top TE and capable of winning  a week for your team.

 

Exactly.  I'm thinking of grabbing him late second/early third just to spice things up a bit.  It's so fun going into a week with a healthy Gronk on your team.  

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2 hours ago, thejosef said:

 

Exactly.  I'm thinking of grabbing him late second/early third just to spice things up a bit.  It's so fun going into a week with a healthy Gronk on your team.  

 

You confident he is going to be there?

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Gronk anytime in the 2nd for me. Love with @FFCollusionposted about his flex dominance which I didn't realize was that good but what I love like others have said is his ability to damn near win a week himself but if he stays healthy you are basically in the playoffs where you can find solid rb2 plays or flex plays etc... late where as your opponent with the 12th ranked TE is as likely to bust hard as he is to get a TD. Also throughout the year those with the bottom ranked TE's are heavily concentrated on the position sometimes owning 2 or even more giving you more of a chance at a true flex(rb/wr) difference maker.

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Had him last season. His injury history scared the s--- outta me so bad I grabbed Kelce in round 3. Say what you want: I lost in the championship.

 

I'm SOOO tempted to roll with Gronk again but it feels close to lighting a pick on fire. He's such a boost to the lineup and covers a lot of shortcomings for a roster. IF you can build solidly around Gronk, you got a playoff bound team. I hate streaming TEs and hate even more rostering two.

 

My keeper league I got it down to Gronk Evans TY Freeman or Mixon in the first round with Cook(2nd) and JG(6th) already in my pocket. 

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I've got pick #22 in round 2 and #27 in round 3. Gronk is definitely in my gunsights.

 

After taking a stud RB in round 1 Gronk will be tough to ignore in those next two slots. If an RB doesn't slip am I really going to take AJ Green (who disappointed me last year and CINCI doesn't exactly exude confidence) or Mike Evans over Gronk? Not sure I will.

 

No Edelman, shaky WR corp, Brady coming in later this year...think Gronk is going to be the centerpiece even more so.

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Based on his 2017 production on a per game basis, I'd suggest he still rates above others and is not an 'average TE1'...  

 

 

Player
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Team
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G
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Target
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Rec
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TD
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FPts/G
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 1. Rob Gronkowski NE 13 105 69 1,083 8 225.3 17.3
 2. Travis Kelce KC 15 122 83 1,038 8 235.5 15.7
 3. Zach Ertz PHI 14 110 74 824 8 204.4 14.6
 4. Evan Engram NYG 15 115 64 722 6 173.6 11.6
 5. Jack Doyle IND 15 108 80 690 4 173.0 11.5
 6. Delanie Walker TEN 16 111 74 807 3 178.5 11.2
 7. Hunter Henry LAC 12 62 45 579 4 126.9 10.6
 8. Jimmy Graham SEA 16 95 57 520 10 169.0 10.6
 9. Jordan Reed WAS 6 35 27 211 2 60.1 10.0
 10. Kyle Rudolph MIN 16 81 57 532 8 158.2 9.9
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