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Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook


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On 8/7/2018 at 9:52 PM, turner46 said:

Gronk anytime in the 2nd for me. Love with @FFCollusionposted about his flex dominance which I didn't realize was that good but what I love like others have said is his ability to damn near win a week himself but if he stays healthy you are basically in the playoffs where you can find solid rb2 plays or flex plays etc... late where as your opponent with the 12th ranked TE is as likely to bust hard as he is to get a TD. Also throughout the year those with the bottom ranked TE's are heavily concentrated on the position sometimes owning 2 or even more giving you more of a chance at a true flex(rb/wr) difference maker.

 

where is that post regarding flex dominance? I cant seem to fnd it : /

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This is the best question you can possibly ask yourself. In any given draft scenario or strategy discussion, this is the question you should be asking yourself, and only you can decide what's bes

225 Fantasy points in 13 games.  He was averaging 17.3 Points Per Game. 4 WRs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  AB, Hop, OBJ, and K.Allen. 8 RBs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Kamar

3 hours ago, dannyz6969 said:

 

where is that post regarding flex dominance? I cant seem to fnd it : /

 

Page 3 on Monday. Long story short last year he was 13th in fppg yet is the 23rd player of the board and one of those 12 ahead of him was Inrgram who will miss the first 4 weeks.

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On 8/7/2018 at 7:20 AM, cohenstantinople said:

Just a little more----when you have a minute----

 

Is it better to draft Round 2 Gronk + a WR in rounds 5-7,

 

or is it better to take a Round 2 WR + a TE in rounds 5-7?

 

Insights?

 

This is the best question you can possibly ask yourself.

In any given draft scenario or strategy discussion, this is the question you should be asking yourself, and only you can decide what's best in your opinion.

 

The problem is that it's a never ending cherry picking situation, when we analysis it in hindsight.  I'm not saying this is what you did, I'm saying no matter who analysis this question, there is no right answer, there are only right 'players'.

 

Last year's 5th round WRs: (ADP via FFC, PPR)

L.Fitzgerald, D.Parker, S.Diggs, A.Robinson

 

Last years 6th round WRs:

Crowder, Landry, Marshall, Garcon, Watkins.

 

Last years 5th round TEs:

Reed, Olsen, Graham

 

6th:

Eifert

 

Last year's 2nd round WRs:

Cooks, Dez, Amari, Baldwin

 

In Hindsight, Gronk was not only the best option, but he also gave you the highest odds and window of success.  Gronk+Fitz (225+250=475), Gronk+Landry(225+264=48), Gronk+Diggs(225+198=423) destroyed any other combos.

However, if you took Cooks(219) or Baldwin (221) in the 2nd and combined him with Graham(169), you got (385) or (387)

 

Now we'll talk about bullet dodging.

 

If you take WR in the 2nd round, you had a 50/50 shot.  2 WRs sucked, 2 were solid.  Although both scored less than Gronk in total points, which is why I tried to make my point from the flex perspective.  (Drafting Gronk in the 2nd, doesn't prevent you from taking a WR in the 5th, again... this is why it's impossible to analyze fairly in hindsight)

 

So you had a 50/50 shot in the 2nd.

Now we go to the 5th/6th of TE options you had a 25% chance of landing the right one.  That's bad odds.

 

Take Gronk in the 2nd, who you know that IF he plays, he's a top 2 TE every single time for what... 7 years running now?

WRs in the 5th/6th left you with 3/9 33% odds of success.

 

So, ignoring bias you're looking at:

100% + 33%

vs

50% + 25%

 

This is why I almost always lean Gronk, it's about what's most likely to happen.  Look, if Gronk gets hurt, that's just life, and ish happens; I can live with that.

Gronk is as close to a sure bet as it gets in fantasy football.  If he's on the field, he's a top 2 TE.  Every. Single. Time.

 

Now let me be the first to say, if you look at all of your options and prefer an option/combo that does NOT have Gronk in it, then I 100% support that decision.  If you can look at the board analytically like that, and justify your decision making process, from a total points perspective PRE-draft, then I will never argue with you about that.

 

Yes, the above is just 1 year, but 2018 is just 1 year.  We can look at as many years as you want, and the answer is always the same.  It doesn't matter what position you draft, only whether you draft the right players.  If you went Bell+Zeke in the first 2 rounds last year and combined them with Marvin Jones, Adam Theilan, JuJu, then you had a championship team.  On the other hand, if you went Antonio+Keenan in the first 2 rounds last year and combined them with Kamara and Ingram then you also had a championship team.

 

The invest of this is also true.  If you went David Johnson+Dalvin Cook, then your team probably sucked.  If you went OBJ+Dez Bryant, your team also sucked.

It doesn't matter what position you draft, or what strategy you use.  The only thing that matters, is whether you pick the right player.  Avoid as many land mines as possible that cripple you throughout the year.  If you feel Gronk's injury concern can cripple your team, I completely understand, and have no problem with people going elsewhere.  For me, I feel like I know exactly who Gronk is.  He's a top 2 TE or he's not playing football.  That's the easiest analysis in fantasy football.

 

Foresight:

 

This year's ADP: Gronk is currently at 23 overall.

2 WR Before/After: Adams, Green, Evans, Hilton

2 RB Before/After: McKinnon, Howard, Mixon, McCoy

 

6th round TEs: (Solid this year)

Olsen, Engram, Rudolph

6th round WRs:

Corey Davis, Michael Crabtree, Edelmen, Watkins, Fuller

6th round RBs:

Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Kerryon Johnson

 

Pick your combo for this year.  No one knows until the end of the year who's right or wrong.  Gronk won't always be the best option.

 

I want to emphasize the above practice does not eliminate Gronk from your draft strategy, which was the point I was trying to drive home from in my first post.

Treat the 2nd round as your 'flex' player.  Rounds 3+ go ahead and draft any TE+WR/RB combo you want.  In the 2nd round, if you know you're filling your flex spot, where position doesn't matter, and all you care about is points... How would you rank these players on POINTS ALONE:  Gronk, Adams, Green, Evans, Hilton, McKinnon, Howard, Mixon, McCoy?

Now... ask yourself IF and WHY you rank them differently when you bring position into the equation, even though you know your 2nd round pick can go anywhere in your lineup.

 

That's all I wanted to try and enlighten people on.  "I don't like my team when I go TE early" is a cop out.  Points are points, and Gronk had a higher PPG average than every single one of the players I just listed.  McCoy(45points) and Green(5 points) are the only two who scored more total points, both played in 3* more games than Gronk.

 

*I think the averages are slightly off, as Gronk played 14 games last year not 13, but one of them was zero points, so it wasn't showing on this site, so is likely calculated incorrectly, meaning McCoy/Green only played 2 games more than he did, which should make McCoy the highest PPG player of the group, but Gronk still whooped everyone else.

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IMO, Gronk was not worth a 2nd rd pick last year, because he didn't have a historically great season. He was very good, but less than 10 TDs and 1100 yards isn't enough to justify taking a TE that high. And yes, I owned him in multiple leagues.

 

If you think he'll better those numbers this season, then he's worth considering as a 2nd rd pick. 

 

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

IMO, Gronk was not worth a 2nd rd pick last year, because he didn't have a historically great season. He was very good, but less than 10 TDs and 1100 yards isn't enough to justify taking a TE that high.

 

This is the exact logic I'm attempting to dispute.  If you look at it from a flex spot, position is irrelevant.

 

Can you explain why?  In extreme detail, no trolling, with a legit breakdown to try and help me comprehend why you feel this way?

 

Ignoring games played there are only 22 players that had more fantasy points than his 225.  Roughly half of which weren't drafted in the first 2 rounds to begin with.

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15 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

IMO, Gronk was not worth a 2nd rd pick last year, because he didn't have a historically great season. He was very good, but less than 10 TDs and 1100 yards isn't enough to justify taking a TE that high. And yes, I owned him in multiple leagues.

 

If you think he'll better those numbers this season, then he's worth considering as a 2nd rd pick. 

 

 

....but there weren't 10 better receivers than him last year.  He was going in the 2nd, I'm not sure how he wasn't worth it considering he did all that in 13 games (played in 14 games, the last one a giant goose egg in week 17 which didn't hurt 99% of people).

 

He put up better numbers than Evans, Cooks, Hilton, Green, etc.  In fact a lot of the guys who did better than him were drafted in later rounds. 

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5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Image result for i feel like I'm being trolled gif

 

This is the exact logic I'm attempting to dispute.  If you look at it from a flex spot, position is irrelevant.

 

Can you explain why?  In extreme detail, no trolling, with a legit breakdown to try and help me comprehend why you feel this way?

 

Ignoring games played there are only 22 players that had more fantasy points than his 225.  Roughly half of which weren't drafted in the first 2 rounds to begin with.

 

Because unless the TE1 is vastly superior to the TE2, which IMO is at least outscoring him by 45 total points during the 15 weeks they play during the fantasy season, it's not worth that big of an ADP investment. And that only happens if the TE1 has a historically great season. 

 

The FLEX argument for me starts when you have a second TE, because a top-5 TE will score on avg equivalent to a low-end WR2. But Gronk isn't someone in your FLEX; he's your starting TE. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

....but there weren't 10 better receivers than him last year.  He was going in the 2nd, I'm not sure how he wasn't worth it considering he did all that in 13 games (played in 14 games, the last one a giant goose egg in week 17 which didn't hurt 99% of people).

 

He put up better numbers than Evans, Cooks, Hilton, Green, etc.  In fact a lot of the guys who did better than him were drafted in later rounds. 

 

He hurt owners in week 1, didn't play week 5, bombed in weeks 10 and 11 during the money stretch of the regular season, and then of course missed wk 14 in the playoffs. His performance was more worthy of an early 4th than late 2nd rd ADP, especially considering that Ertz matched him most of the season at a cost 6-7 rounds cheaper. 

 

He did score comparable to the WR10 (AJ Green), but only because 2017 was a historically weak year for WR production. 

 

Again, you can argue that last year was a fluke and that if he sees 105 targets again, he's more likely to score 12 TDs instead of just 8. But he was a disappointment for owners who drafted him 2nd round last year.  If you want to argue that he wasn't a complete disaster like some other 2nd rd picks, that's a different discussion.

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5 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Because unless the TE1 is vastly superior to the TE2, which IMO is at least outscoring him by 45 total points during the 15 weeks they play during the fantasy season, it's not worth that big of an ADP investment. And that only happens if the TE1 has a historically great season. 

 

The FLEX argument for me starts when you have a second TE, because a top-5 TE will score on avg equivalent to a low-end WR2. But Gronk isn't someone in your FLEX; he's your starting TE. 

 

 

But if you took Brown and he didn't outperform Hopkins last year, does that mean he was a wasted pick? 

 

In standard Gronk had 150 points, which slots him in at #7 for WR. 

 

Hopkins 205

Brown 201

Allen 168

Julio Jones 155

Marvin Jones 155

Hill 151

Gronk 150

Thomas 146

 

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37 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

If you take WR in the 2nd round, you had a 50/50 shot.  2 WRs sucked, 2 were solid.  Although both scored less than Gronk in total points, which is why I tried to make my point from the flex perspective.  (Drafting Gronk in the 2nd, doesn't prevent you from taking a WR in the 5th, again... this is why it's impossible to analyze fairly in hindsight)

 

So you had a 50/50 shot in the 2nd.

Now we go to the 5th/6th of TE options you had a 25% chance of landing the right one.

 

As I play around with the numbers, and look at stats from different perspectives, it gets complicated. I like the simplicity of this vantage (above).

 

Essentially, Gronk is bust-proof, only susceptible to injury, and all players are susceptible to injury, but how many are bust-proof...

 

So far I only have Gronk in one league, and took Reed very late for peanuts as a backup just in case Gronk gets hurt. Of course, both could get hurt, but I'd say I'm starting the season with solid positional advantage at TE.

 

Thanks for the added insight.

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Just now, Sternes said:

 

But if you took Brown and he didn't outperform Hopkins last year, does that mean he was a wasted pick? 

 

In standard Gronk had 150 points, which slots him in at #7 for WR. 

 

Hopkins 205

Brown 201

Allen 168

Julio Jones 155

Marvin Jones 155

Hill 151

Gronk 150

Thomas 146

 

 

My discussion has been for PPR. In standard leagues, I'd bump his ADP a full round. 

 

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1 minute ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

As I play around with the numbers, and look at stats from different perspectives, it gets complicated. I like the simplicity of this vantage (above).

 

Essentially, Gronk is bust-proof, only susceptible to injury, and all players are susceptible to injury, but how many are bust-proof...

 

So far I only have Gronk in one league, and took Reed very late for peanuts as a backup just in case Gronk gets hurt. Of course, both could get hurt, but I'd say I'm starting the season with solid positional advantage at TE.

 

Thanks for the added insight.

 

You could make the same argument for drafting Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd round. 

 

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

 

My discussion has been for PPR. In standard leagues, I'd bump his ADP a full round. 

 

 

He still finished tied with AJ Green even in PPR. 

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7 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

He hurt owners in week 1, didn't play week 5, bombed in weeks 10 and 11 during the money stretch of the regular season, and then of course missed wk 14 in the playoffs. His performance was more worthy of an early 4th than late 2nd rd ADP, especially considering that Ertz matched him most of the season at a cost 6-7 rounds cheaper. 

 

He did score comparable to the WR10 (AJ Green), but only because 2017 was a historically weak year for WR production. 

 

Again, you can argue that last year was a fluke and that if he sees 105 targets again, he's more likely to score 12 TDs instead of just 8. But he was a disappointment for owners who drafted him 2nd round last year.  If you want to argue that he wasn't a complete disaster like some other 2nd rd picks, that's a different discussion.

 

 

Now you are picking on weekly production?    Come on man, that is ridiculous.  Gronk may have hurt you being out, but he didn't get hurt in game so you had the chance to play a replacement.  Same for his suspension.

 

Gronk wasn't worth the pick because he didn't have a historically amazing year, but at the same time the WR were worth it even though they had a historically weak year?  :blink:

 

 

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10 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

You could make the same argument for drafting Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd round. 

 

 

I think I have...

 

but I borrowed the numbers / analysis from Lord Varys.

 

giphy.gif

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The only argument against gronk at flex, is why in the heck would you play a guy with 10 points separation at his position at flex? U simply wouldn't unless somehow you hit a te that still has separation or u had players on a bye and only decent scoring opportunities left were at te. Regardless, the argument doesn't matter to gronks draft position. His draft stock should be based on having that 10pt separation at te. If he is there at pick 20 and u don't take him, then u have made a mistake. He's the only player on the board then with 10+td upside and he's at a weak position.

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1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

Gronk isn't someone in your FLEX; he's your starting TE. 

 

Only if you force him to be, which is what I've laid out in extreme detail.  Gronk DOES NOT have to go into your TE spot.

You can still draft a TE after him, in which case he becomes your flex player.  Anyone can theorycraft and strategize this pre-draft, right now.

 

It's such a simple question... who scored more points last year?  Gronk+Kelce or Baldwin+Kelce?  Two spots to fill TE and Flex.  2 player combos to choose from.

 

1 minute ago, joshua18 said:

You could make the same argument for drafting Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd round. 

 

And if it were a super flex league in which QBs could be played in the Flex spot, that's exactly where Rodgers would go.  You're proving my point about the flex spot, you realize that right?

 

10 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

He hurt owners in week 1, didn't play week 5, bombed in weeks 10 and 11 during the money stretch of the regular season, and then of course missed wk 14 in the playoffs. His performance was more worthy of an early 4th than late 2nd rd ADP, especially considering that Ertz matched him most of the season at a cost 6-7 rounds cheaper.

 

Using this exact same logic, what was Doug Baldwin worth last year and where are you drafting him this year, relative to Gronk?

If Gronk 'bombed' with 6.6 and 11.4 points in weeks 10/11, then what do you make of Baldwin's:

10.0 in Week 1?

10.4 in week 2?

6.5 in Week 4?

7.7 in Week 5?

11.4 in Week 8?

12.0 in week 11?

4.0 in week 12? (I hear this is the money stretch of the regular season!)

13.4 in week 13?

1.6 in week 15?

13.5 in week 16?

 

According to you, Baldwin 'bombed' 9 weeks out of the 15 he played last year... BUT

You say he's elite.

You say he should be drafted top 10 WR this year.

So... how do you justify drafting Baldwin over Gronk?

 

No more bait.  I've made my case, I'm interested to hear you make yours, but there's nothing left for me to say.

 

3 minutes ago, Mattice1 said:

The only argument against gronk at flex, is why in the heck would you play a guy with 10 points separation at his position at flex? U simply wouldn't unless somehow you hit a te that still has separation or u had players on a bye and only decent scoring opportunities left were at te.

 

Points win fantasy games.  I promise that there's no hidden calculation in the flex spot that changes how your league scores Gronk based on where you put him into your lineup.  The only reason I brought this into the thread, was to show people that if you ignore Gronk's position, and draft rounds 3-15 like you would without him on your team, that he's one of the best 2nd round players, period.  I was just trying to show people you can still chase <your TE target> in <round X> and that doesn't "have to" prevent you from drafting Gronk in the 2nd.  Tl;dr people who say 'I don't like my team when I go TE early' are not logically understanding the correlation of fantasy points in fantasy lineups.  Positions don't matter.

 

Bye for real this time.

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First of all, in a superflex league, Rodgers is a 1st round pick, not second.

 

And Baldwin was an even bigger disappointment than Gronk. That's undeniable. 

 

I don't justify drafting Baldwin over Gronk this year. I don't think either should be drafted in the first 2 rounds. 

 

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I don't understand how people can so badly misunderstand and misapply FFCollusions point regarding Gronk/flex. He made his thinking perfectly clear and logically laid out his position, and people still completely missed the point.

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53 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Could one get the same Gronk ppg advantage by taking Rodgers + Jags at a lower draft cost-?

A really really cursory glance says no. Over his last 3 full years Rodgers has averaged 21.5 fppg. That number would have been 2nd in 2015 but QB6 was only 2 points lower and 10 QBs were within 3 points. In 2016 that would have been 2nd but QB6 was only 3 points lower and 12 QBs were within 4 points.  Last year that would have been 4th and QB6 was 3 points lower. 8 QBs were within 4 points. So Rodgers gives you roughly 2.5-3 points more than QB6 and only about 3.5-4 more points per week than lower end starting QBs in 12 team leagues.

 

I’m not going to type out the Gronk numbers but at a glance it appears he’s 5-6 points per week better than TE6 and 7 or so points per week greater than Tes 10-12.

Edited by Bmore86
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