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Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

A really really cursory glance says no. Over his last 3 full years Rodgers has averaged 21.5 fppg. That number would have been 2nd in 2015 but QB6 was only 2 points lower and 10 QBs were within 3 points. In 2016 that would have been 2nd but QB6 was only 3 points lower and 12 QBs were within 4 points.  Last year that would have been 4th and QB6 was 3 points lower. 8 QBs were within 4 points. So Rodgers gives you roughly 2.5-3 points more than QB6 and only about 4-4.5 more points per week than lower end starting QBs in 12 team leagues.

 

I’m not going to type out the Gronk numbers but at a glance it appears he’s 5-6 points per week better than TE6 and 7 or so points per week greater than Tes 10-12.

but 3 pts from ARod...3 pts from the Jags...then the bump of drafting another position in the 2nd... ... ...?

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This is the best question you can possibly ask yourself. In any given draft scenario or strategy discussion, this is the question you should be asking yourself, and only you can decide what's bes

225 Fantasy points in 13 games.  He was averaging 17.3 Points Per Game. 4 WRs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  AB, Hop, OBJ, and K.Allen. 8 RBs had higher than 17.3 PPG.  Gurley, Bell, Zeke, Kamar

1 minute ago, psygolf said:

but 3 pts from ARod...3 pts from the Jags...then the bump of drafting another position in the 2nd... ... ...?

I was just responding to whether the positional advantage Arod gives is as substantial as the one Gronk gives. Which it isn’t. Don’t have time at the moment to take into account their ADPs.

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3 hours ago, psygolf said:

Could one get the same Gronk ppg advantage by taking Rodgers + Jags at a lower draft cost-?

 

I heard on a podcast he has typically been a top 20 VBD value but that compares his stats to the 13th ranked QB(in 12 team leagues) or 11th(10 team leagues etc...) and some people prefer comparing to the middle ranked players etc...

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Rob Gronkowski 2018 Outlook

This is the first year where I'm honestly not thinking about waiting on TE. For sure TE1s are hard to find this year and the positional differential is huge. I recently did an auction and got for 

 $43 and I was very pleased with my team. How are you guys approaching him this year?

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On 8/9/2018 at 6:22 AM, urban2014 said:

Keeper and Gronk? Really? He doesn’t have a lot of time left as a TE  1 in all honesty 

This is the mindset of 80% of the people in dynasty leagues...this is why those 80% lose every year...you won't draft arguably the best TE ever...because he's 29...don't know what to do except laugh...

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On 8/16/2018 at 11:41 PM, confusedmrkrabs said:

This is the mindset of 80% of the people in dynasty leagues...this is why those 80% lose every year...you won't draft arguably the best TE ever...because he's 29...don't know what to do except laugh...

 

EXACTLY!!!

 

Same sheep will avoid Hogan because it's his age-30 season. They've been fading Brady and Brees for the past 11 years ? 

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On 8/16/2018 at 11:30 PM, the_dying_dream said:

This is the first year where I'm honestly not thinking about waiting on TE. For sure TE1s are hard to find this year and the positional differential is huge. I recently did an auction and got for 

 $43 and I was very pleased with my team. How are you guys approaching him this year?

 

I take Kelce a round later or Rudolph several rounds later or say f it and wait for Eifert 

 

i do agree, this is the year I find myself going TE early depending on who’s available. If I had a top 4 pick and he fell to late round 2, I’d definitely take him. 

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Considering the state of the NE receivers group and Edelman suspended the first four games I wouldn't be surprised to see Gronk have a career year this season if he stays healthy.

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6 minutes ago, herschel said:

crazy to think of taking him at 2.01 in 12 team leagues?  would be reaching over wrs like allen and rbs like cook?

 

Doesn't sound crazy to me, I'm strongly considering him at #15 in a 12 teamer and would be reaching over all the same guys

 

If he gives you 16 15 games then drafting him anytime in the 2nd is a steal

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Wrong number
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I picked him last year 2.01 because I thought it was his bounce back year. 

 

He had a great year, sure. But with with this stuff he's saying about his body and the shape he's in now that he's working with Brady's trainer, I'm expecting even bigger things this year. Thinking about grabbing him again, this time at 2.04. (Granted Julio/Beckham/Hopkins don't fall to me, my league is loving RBs this year)

 

As good as he was last year, some of his games it looked like he was lumbering coming off that back surgery. I can see him being more explosive this season.

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59 minutes ago, Panthor said:

i would be willing to draft him in the first round if i knew he was playing all 16 games.  the advantage of him on your team cannot be overstated

 

Isn't that true of every player?  David Johnson told me last year he was going to play all 16.....

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15 minutes ago, Sternes said:

 

Isn't that true of every player?  David Johnson told me last year he was going to play all 16.....

 

not true for all elite players.  Gronk's ceiling is higher  than and the chances of finding a diamond in the rough at the TE position to replace Gronk at his peak is significantly lower than at other positions like RB or WR.  just look at the turn over at the RB tiers year to year and then look at the turn over in t he TE tiers.  you could take the Tier break down from 2 years ago and still be pretty accurate for TEs, whereas for RB you would be no where close.

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2 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Been taking him second round and not looking back. He's pretty much your wr1 and then you stack WRs round 4-7 and you're golden. He's going to have arguably the best season of his career potentially this year.

 

 

i not sure about the best of his career, that 2011 season with 1300+ and 17 TDs would be the top of even the WR list just about any year.   but i do agree, i'm projecting a very big year for him provided he is healthy all season

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2 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

 

i not sure about the best of his career, that 2011 season with 1300+ and 17 TDs would be the top of even the WR list just about any year.   but i do agree, i'm projecting a very big year for him provided he is healthy all season

 

Considering their receiver group he might top those numbers this season. I'm really warming up to Gronk this season.

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5 minutes ago, Panthor said:

 

 

i not sure about the best of his career, that 2011 season with 1300+ and 17 TDs would be the top of even the WR list just about any year.   but i do agree, i'm projecting a very big year for him provided he is healthy all season

I would argue that 2-4 tops receivers outnumber gronk this season. And you're gonna have to take them in round 1 unless you have last pick. 

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

 

Considering their receiver group he might top those numbers this season. I'm really warming up to Gronk this season.

 

 

well if he does, i'd venture to say that over 90% of his owners will be in the playoffs.  you'd have to screw up your roster and mismanage pretty badly to miss the playoffs if your TE is putting up numbers like that

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Just now, Panthor said:

 

 

well if he does, i'd venture to say that over 90% of his owners will be in the playoffs.  you'd have to screw up your roster and mismanage pretty badly to miss the playoffs if your TE is putting up numbers like that

Exactly! His ceiling his insane this year. And think about their division matches this year...

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Just now, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Exactly! His ceiling his insane this year. And think about their division matches this year...

that's why i said i'd take him in the first round with no hesitation if not picking top 3.  the advantage in point output is just too high.   you're talking about doubling up every other teams TE scoring output on a weekly basis.  you really can't say that about any WR or RB. 

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Anyone worried about the fact that he contemplated retirement?

 

Would be pretty cool if there was a study on player stats the season after it was reported they were contemplating retirement and if there was a significant drop off or not.

 

I'm very hesistant to draft him or Olsen knowing they came that close to calling it quits. Gotta wonder if their heart is really in it, and that worries me.

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